LTA's MLB Plays

[NYSportsGuy210]

I like the Under in BOS-MIA with two stud pitchers going at it. Also like D-Backs ML , Tigers RL and Blue Jays RL. Gonna play Mets ML too.

BOL.

[Tofudog]

Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh

[Catchn_Picks]

Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh

Quick....get away from the ledge!!!!

Well, the Miami over play has some real work to do but the Detroit game just started and is scoreless.

Btw, the Det game opened at -125 and closed between -141 to -157. I promise you that if you can beat the ml spread by 20 points every game you would own Vegas by the end of the season. Whether the play wins or loses is far less relevant than whether the game beats the opening number (especially by this margin). In other words, in a way you have already won the bet, depending on how early you bet Det.

BOL

[Love The Action]

Dont usually bet on MLB because I don't know enough about it but tailed on the nats/soxs under.. on a little losing streak now...

So this was your post from a few days ago. Since that time I am over +5x in profit.

Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh

Based on your post above, you were in a losing streak when you started to tail me. Since you started tailing, I am positive units. Tonight's games are not even over yet and you are already complaining. Hmmm....what does all this say about you?

[Gamble32jn]

Poor LTA can't catch a break...lol. Just relax guys, he will come through like he always does

[Love The Action]

LTA, How much significance do you give to a pitcher's recent starts when you evaluate them through your model? I ask because I noticed you've taken the over in the Sox game and from recollection you took the over in Buchholz's last start as well. I read a lot of Sox news (they're the team I follow) and it's been noted that he's finally got control of his change-up now and that he's developing a sinker fastball with the help of Beckett too (he threw it twice in one of his recent starts).
All that being said he's got himself a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts but I'm asking if the 9 terrible starts before his most recent 3 should hold more significance when 'valuing' a pitcher in a situation like he is currently in (off to a poor start, showing signs of improvement). There's a few other starters out there that have started off terribly but showed promise in recent starts so it's hard to recognise which ones to trust.
Regardless, as a Sox fan I'll be rooting for a 9-0 win to Boston. GL

I factor in previous three starts along with season and career numbers. At the time I took the over, I expected Ortiz to play even with Buehrle starting and that was a miscalculation. Without Ortiz, the whole makeup of the Boston lineup changes. Nevertheless, neither pitcher has good numbers and even though I recognize Bucholz's recent success, his overall numbers are poor. Buehrle's numbers are not that much better and he has given up 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. Boston has killed Buehrle in the past so there was no unfamiliarity there and Miami has been a high scoring park all year. I beat the closer, albeit not by much. I think the reasoning was solid, it just didn't pan out (so far).

[Tofudog]

So this was your post from a few days ago. Since that time I am over +5x in profit.



Based on your post above, you were in a losing streak when you started to tail me. Since you started tailing, I am positive units. Tonight's games are not even over yet and you are already complaining. Hmmm....what does all this say about you?

I had tailed you on a few plays previous to that comment. I have just been picking a few and obviously your winning the ones which I don't tail... It wasn't a shot at you at all. I respect and know your capping ability and admire the fact that you post your plays. Like tonight, I decided to tail the bos/mia game and not the detroit game.. its just hasn't been going my way.

I was just frustrated.

[taxe91]

Tigers have had leadoff base hits in 3 of their 6 innings so far, not many things more frustrating in baseball than stranding baserunners.. Angels managed to win despite it yesterday but unfortunately for us the Tigers don't have a Mike Trout in their lineup.

[Catchn_Picks]

"I factor in previous three starts along with season and career numbers."

At the risk of being a kiss ass LTA I think this is a perfect blend. You place weight on early season accomplishments or failures for potential regression to the mean and still factor current form. Cappers can control everything but the results...they control themselves.

BOL

[Catchn_Picks]

I had tailed you on a few plays previous to that comment. I have just been picking a few and obviously your winning the ones which I don't tail... It wasn't a shot at you at all. I respect and know your capping ability and admire the fact that you post your plays. Like tonight, I decided to tail the bos/mia game and not the detroit game.. its just hasn't been going my way.

I was just frustrated.

I feel ya. That two run home run last night with two outs in the ninth was a dagger in the heart. It took the breath away from me when I heard it leave the bat.

For me, bankroll management is the key. Overall, it was really just another unit loss and I have 100 units in the bank to back it up. That is 1% of the bankroll per unit. Most are far more aggressive than that. But, if you had a hundred bucks in your pocket and a friend asked you to give him just one dollar, you wouldn't think twice.

In fact, I can lose 99 more units just like that one last night before I have to reload. The negative is that I can't make huge scores when I win. It is a tradeoff for me, smaller scores but be able to remain in the game and sleep well at night.

LTA's picks are experiencing a really unusual string of bad variance. I have lost count of the number of under bets that have been lost in the 8th or 9th innings. It is staggering. Without thinking, I would have thought we would be down 15+ units for the season so far. It is amazing that we are around even or better so far.

It is a mathematical certainty that this variance will balance out. And math cannot fail. The only question is when it happens. Fortunately the baseball season is long and I hope we get to go on a run of luck and skill sooner rather than later.

Best of luck always.

[Redscot]

We've been Marmoled so many times since I know you LTA.....would be nice if he could throw us a bone tonight.

[taxe91]

We've been Marmoled so many times since I know you LTA.....would be nice if he could throw us a bone tonight.

Looks like they're pitching around Barney to get to the lefty Stewart and the pitchers spot, surely Marmol will get pinch hit for if theres no double play here. Oh well theres plenty of other sub par pitchers in the Cubs bullpen that can get lit up for us. Is Dolis still on that team?

[Redscot]

Looks like they're pitching around Barney to get to the lefty Stewart and the pitchers spot, surely Marmol will get pinch hit for if theres no double play here. Oh well theres plenty of other sub par pitchers in the Cubs bullpen that can get lit up for us. Is Dolis still on that team?

I think LTA got to Theo Epstein and had Doh-Less sent down!

[taxe91]

Wow Leyland is keeping Coke in with 45 pitches already, cmon skipper that bullpen had a rest day yesterday get them in

[Redscot]

2 straight close calls that went against us. Replay showed they were both outs.

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice errors Detroit...going for the hat trick?

[taxe91]

Not ready to blame this game on Peralta, Coke shouldn't have been pitching that deep in the first place. That's the most pitches he's thrown in an outing since he was a starter in June 2011. Leyland should have had his rested late relief pitchers in, starting to understand why he's known as a poor manager

[Les_Nuts]

Damn the Detroit tigers, are they emerging as the Utah jazz of MLB? I followed through on a couple of your leans LTA, sabathia and rox over, got incredibly lucky with the yanks. GL tommorrow, hope we start catching some breaks

[Tofudog]

Well... I am glad I didn't bet on the tigers as well. Detroit seems to be a hit or miss team so some degree. At least I won my nba bet.. I will be tailing again tomorrow

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

0 - 2 = -2.2x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

0 - 2 = -2.2x


150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.

MLB 2012 Regular Season
agreed, lta

lets get a heater. dont rush any plays.

us minions will wait

[taxe91]

Felt your pain on that Tigers game, LTA. Oh well we have a brand new set of games to attack today, let's get it. I like the sox/marlins U8.5 at +100, I believe the recently anemic sox offense will be without middlebrooks, and Ozzie hinted that he may rest Hanley Ramirez too. Will have to take a look at Ricky Nolasco's numbers when I'm off my phone.

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

0 - 2 = -2.2x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.

Right on brother, the tide will turn . You just know if we were on the Cubs last night their Pen would have imploded , unreal.

On another note, not hard to see why Detroit is scrubbing it up this year. Team Uzr -24.2 and their range rating is also 2nd worst in the league at -20.6. To the uninitiated these defensive metrics represent the number of runs above or below an average fielder. So, Detroit is giving up .4 of a run per game off their lousy defense. So put that in your model and smoke it everybody.

[Redscot]

Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

First high leverage pitching situations:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=14,a

Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

Now lets look at clutch hitting:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=15,d

Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.

[Vasco]

Tigers are a joke. Remind me of how the Jazz performed for us in NBA. LTA, what do you think of Lynn vs Peavy? Have to think you'll be jumping on the under. I also like Doubront and the Sox at +102 vs Miami, Philly and Washington -1 RL. Dickey at +143 is insane, but tough to go against Price. Looks like an under play. Looking forward to your thoughts on these games. It only takes 1 or 2 big days to get rolling. Let's do it.

[guil0000]

Talking about insane... Houston and Happ getting +200

[coachkap]

LTA .... I have been following your MLB and NBA threads now for quite some time... your record speaks for itself. I have been struggling too...but I'm determined to beat the books... as are you..it's not always reasonable to expect an easy time of it tho.... cuz if it were that easy to win consistent money, then it wouldn't be as satisfying when we win...... IMHO...Very few people on these threads who consistently post their plays are winners.. (except for the ones who occasionally bet BIG and luckily WIN on a random game)... when it comes to capping winners over the long haul you are Da Man ..I admire your determination, your trust in your system and your inner fortitude to win! Plus, you have the added burden of posting your plays and then dealing with everyone's criticism if you lose.... I like the way you deal with adversity without getting angry (oh well... for the most part..), try to use situations to educate the masses, and not lose your dignity... Dude, hang in there... You have winning ways.... and IMO you will always be successful...

[pacocn]

Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

First high leverage pitching situations:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=14,a

Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

Now lets look at clutch hitting:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=15,d

Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.

Red great stats, you are the stat guru, Is there anyway that you could post how
teams do when facing right handed vs. left handed pitching. I think this would be very
valuable information as well. Take your time and enjoy the beach.

[pacocn]

Lta, i feel the heater warming up in the pen,
bol today, and lets get these books
Keep on grinding

[EXhoosier10]

Red great stats, you are the stat guru, Is there anyway that you could post how
teams do when facing right handed vs. left handed pitching. I think this would be very
valuable information as well. Take your time and enjoy the beach.

I have these favorited

vs L

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=13&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0

vs R

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=14&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/13/2012

Play #1

Mets/Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Red Sox ML (+103) 1x (Locked)

Crazy day at work. This is what I am playing so far. Good luck.

[morningmoney]

Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

First high leverage pitching situations:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=14,a

Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

Now lets look at clutch hitting:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=26&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=15,d

Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.

Awesome stuff, Redscot. Do you prefer using a player's wRC over his OPS+ to evaluate his offense? Or do you use both? Sorry if it's a stupid question. Thanks.

[Redscot]

Awesome stuff, Redscot. Do you prefer using a player's wRC over his OPS+ to evaluate his offense? Or do you use both? Sorry if it's a stupid question. Thanks.

Not stupid at all bro. This from Fangraphs:

● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s offensive value.

I trust them. Plain and simple.

[Redscot]

WTF is this 2nd page shiznit, , not acceptable.

Anyway, got back from the beach and am toasty in more ways than one. One of the questions nagging at me on the ride home (yeah I can't let go) was how The knuckleball fares in a dome environment. Now I see LTA is on the under so further piques my interest.....a quick glance shows that Wakefield was successful at the Trop over 130+ innings in his career, and although a different style of knuckleballer, that gives me some peace of mind.

Oh, and the Nat's showed a little something this week huh! They are a division rival of my Muts, but kudos, credit where credit is due! They got no respect the first 2 games in Toronto from Vegas.

[morningmoney]

Not stupid at all bro. This from Fangraphs:

● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s offensive value.

I trust them. Plain and simple.