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  • NYSportsGuy210
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-07-09
    • 11347

    #8716
    I like the Under in BOS-MIA with two stud pitchers going at it. Also like D-Backs ML , Tigers RL and Blue Jays RL. Gonna play Mets ML too.

    BOL.
    Comment
    • Tofudog
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-30-12
      • 858

      #8717
      Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh
      Comment
      • Catchn_Picks
        SBR MVP
        • 09-02-11
        • 2984

        #8718
        Originally posted by Tofudog
        Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh
        Quick....get away from the ledge!!!!

        Well, the Miami over play has some real work to do but the Detroit game just started and is scoreless.

        Btw, the Det game opened at -125 and closed between -141 to -157. I promise you that if you can beat the ml spread by 20 points every game you would own Vegas by the end of the season. Whether the play wins or loses is far less relevant than whether the game beats the opening number (especially by this margin). In other words, in a way you have already won the bet, depending on how early you bet Det.

        BOL
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #8719
          Originally posted by Tofudog
          Dont usually bet on MLB because I don't know enough about it but tailed on the nats/soxs under.. on a little losing streak now...
          So this was your post from a few days ago. Since that time I am over +5x in profit.

          Originally posted by Tofudog
          Jeezus christ... I picked the wrong time to tail your plays LTA... I was trying to pad my bank roll before retiring after the NBA season and its going completely the wrong way.... ugh
          Based on your post above, you were in a losing streak when you started to tail me. Since you started tailing, I am positive units. Tonight's games are not even over yet and you are already complaining. Hmmm....what does all this say about you?
          Comment
          • Gamble32jn
            SBR MVP
            • 02-07-12
            • 1860

            #8720
            Poor LTA can't catch a break...lol. Just relax guys, he will come through like he always does
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #8721
              Originally posted by taxe91
              LTA, How much significance do you give to a pitcher's recent starts when you evaluate them through your model? I ask because I noticed you've taken the over in the Sox game and from recollection you took the over in Buchholz's last start as well. I read a lot of Sox news (they're the team I follow) and it's been noted that he's finally got control of his change-up now and that he's developing a sinker fastball with the help of Beckett too (he threw it twice in one of his recent starts).
              All that being said he's got himself a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts but I'm asking if the 9 terrible starts before his most recent 3 should hold more significance when 'valuing' a pitcher in a situation like he is currently in (off to a poor start, showing signs of improvement). There's a few other starters out there that have started off terribly but showed promise in recent starts so it's hard to recognise which ones to trust.
              Regardless, as a Sox fan I'll be rooting for a 9-0 win to Boston. GL
              I factor in previous three starts along with season and career numbers. At the time I took the over, I expected Ortiz to play even with Buehrle starting and that was a miscalculation. Without Ortiz, the whole makeup of the Boston lineup changes. Nevertheless, neither pitcher has good numbers and even though I recognize Bucholz's recent success, his overall numbers are poor. Buehrle's numbers are not that much better and he has given up 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. Boston has killed Buehrle in the past so there was no unfamiliarity there and Miami has been a high scoring park all year. I beat the closer, albeit not by much. I think the reasoning was solid, it just didn't pan out (so far).
              Comment
              • Tofudog
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-30-12
                • 858

                #8722
                Originally posted by Love The Action
                So this was your post from a few days ago. Since that time I am over +5x in profit.



                Based on your post above, you were in a losing streak when you started to tail me. Since you started tailing, I am positive units. Tonight's games are not even over yet and you are already complaining. Hmmm....what does all this say about you?
                I had tailed you on a few plays previous to that comment. I have just been picking a few and obviously your winning the ones which I don't tail... It wasn't a shot at you at all. I respect and know your capping ability and admire the fact that you post your plays. Like tonight, I decided to tail the bos/mia game and not the detroit game.. its just hasn't been going my way.

                I was just frustrated.
                Comment
                • taxe91
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-16-12
                  • 610

                  #8723
                  Tigers have had leadoff base hits in 3 of their 6 innings so far, not many things more frustrating in baseball than stranding baserunners.. Angels managed to win despite it yesterday but unfortunately for us the Tigers don't have a Mike Trout in their lineup.
                  Comment
                  • Catchn_Picks
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-02-11
                    • 2984

                    #8724
                    "I factor in previous three starts along with season and career numbers."

                    At the risk of being a kiss ass LTA I think this is a perfect blend. You place weight on early season accomplishments or failures for potential regression to the mean and still factor current form. Cappers can control everything but the results...they control themselves.

                    BOL

                    Comment
                    • Catchn_Picks
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-02-11
                      • 2984

                      #8725
                      Originally posted by Tofudog
                      I had tailed you on a few plays previous to that comment. I have just been picking a few and obviously your winning the ones which I don't tail... It wasn't a shot at you at all. I respect and know your capping ability and admire the fact that you post your plays. Like tonight, I decided to tail the bos/mia game and not the detroit game.. its just hasn't been going my way.

                      I was just frustrated.
                      I feel ya. That two run home run last night with two outs in the ninth was a dagger in the heart. It took the breath away from me when I heard it leave the bat.

                      For me, bankroll management is the key. Overall, it was really just another unit loss and I have 100 units in the bank to back it up. That is 1% of the bankroll per unit. Most are far more aggressive than that. But, if you had a hundred bucks in your pocket and a friend asked you to give him just one dollar, you wouldn't think twice.

                      In fact, I can lose 99 more units just like that one last night before I have to reload. The negative is that I can't make huge scores when I win. It is a tradeoff for me, smaller scores but be able to remain in the game and sleep well at night.

                      LTA's picks are experiencing a really unusual string of bad variance. I have lost count of the number of under bets that have been lost in the 8th or 9th innings. It is staggering. Without thinking, I would have thought we would be down 15+ units for the season so far. It is amazing that we are around even or better so far.

                      It is a mathematical certainty that this variance will balance out. And math cannot fail. The only question is when it happens. Fortunately the baseball season is long and I hope we get to go on a run of luck and skill sooner rather than later.

                      Best of luck always.
                      Comment
                      • Redscot
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-16-11
                        • 2571

                        #8726
                        We've been Marmoled so many times since I know you LTA.....would be nice if he could throw us a bone tonight.
                        Comment
                        • taxe91
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-16-12
                          • 610

                          #8727
                          Originally posted by Redscot
                          We've been Marmoled so many times since I know you LTA.....would be nice if he could throw us a bone tonight.
                          Looks like they're pitching around Barney to get to the lefty Stewart and the pitchers spot, surely Marmol will get pinch hit for if theres no double play here. Oh well theres plenty of other sub par pitchers in the Cubs bullpen that can get lit up for us. Is Dolis still on that team?
                          Comment
                          • Redscot
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-16-11
                            • 2571

                            #8728
                            Originally posted by taxe91
                            Looks like they're pitching around Barney to get to the lefty Stewart and the pitchers spot, surely Marmol will get pinch hit for if theres no double play here. Oh well theres plenty of other sub par pitchers in the Cubs bullpen that can get lit up for us. Is Dolis still on that team?
                            I think LTA got to Theo Epstein and had Doh-Less sent down!
                            Comment
                            • taxe91
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 03-16-12
                              • 610

                              #8729
                              Wow Leyland is keeping Coke in with 45 pitches already, cmon skipper that bullpen had a rest day yesterday get them in
                              Comment
                              • Redscot
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-16-11
                                • 2571

                                #8730
                                2 straight close calls that went against us. Replay showed they were both outs.
                                Comment
                                • Catchn_Picks
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-02-11
                                  • 2984

                                  #8731
                                  Nice errors Detroit...going for the hat trick?
                                  Comment
                                  • taxe91
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-16-12
                                    • 610

                                    #8732
                                    Not ready to blame this game on Peralta, Coke shouldn't have been pitching that deep in the first place. That's the most pitches he's thrown in an outing since he was a starter in June 2011. Leyland should have had his rested late relief pitchers in, starting to understand why he's known as a poor manager
                                    Comment
                                    • Les_Nuts
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 02-01-12
                                      • 931

                                      #8733
                                      Damn the Detroit tigers, are they emerging as the Utah jazz of MLB? I followed through on a couple of your leans LTA, sabathia and rox over, got incredibly lucky with the yanks. GL tommorrow, hope we start catching some breaks
                                      Comment
                                      • Tofudog
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 04-30-12
                                        • 858

                                        #8734
                                        Well... I am glad I didn't bet on the tigers as well. Detroit seems to be a hit or miss team so some degree. At least I won my nba bet.. I will be tailing again tomorrow
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #8735
                                          MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

                                          0 - 2 = -2.2x


                                          MLB 2012 Regular Season

                                          150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

                                          Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.
                                          Comment
                                          • Pick'nParlays
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-22-08
                                            • 3134

                                            #8736
                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                            MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

                                            0 - 2 = -2.2x



                                            150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

                                            Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.

                                            MLB 2012 Regular Season
                                            agreed, lta

                                            lets get a heater. dont rush any plays.

                                            us minions will wait
                                            Comment
                                            • taxe91
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-16-12
                                              • 610

                                              #8737
                                              Felt your pain on that Tigers game, LTA. Oh well we have a brand new set of games to attack today, let's get it. I like the sox/marlins U8.5 at +100, I believe the recently anemic sox offense will be without middlebrooks, and Ozzie hinted that he may rest Hanley Ramirez too. Will have to take a look at Ricky Nolasco's numbers when I'm off my phone.
                                              Comment
                                              • Redscot
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-16-11
                                                • 2571

                                                #8738
                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/12/2012 Recap

                                                0 - 2 = -2.2x


                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season

                                                150 - 147 - 21 = -0.12x

                                                Ever since the second week of May, this season has been as much fun as a root canal. The bad breaks far outnumber the good ones and the inability to get on a sustained hot streak is maddening. This is the perfect illustration of the baseball grind. I have never been faced with so much adversity in basketball and baseball like I have over the last two or three months. At some point we have to catch some breaks and get on a heater. Not every late inning error or bullpen meltdown can continue to go against us. Nevertheless, we must not let the frustration get to us, keep working hard and the tide will turn. Good luck.
                                                Right on brother, the tide will turn . You just know if we were on the Cubs last night their Pen would have imploded , unreal.

                                                On another note, not hard to see why Detroit is scrubbing it up this year. Team Uzr -24.2 and their range rating is also 2nd worst in the league at -20.6. To the uninitiated these defensive metrics represent the number of runs above or below an average fielder. So, Detroit is giving up .4 of a run per game off their lousy defense. So put that in your model and smoke it everybody.
                                                Comment
                                                • Redscot
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-16-11
                                                  • 2571

                                                  #8739
                                                  Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

                                                  First high leverage pitching situations:



                                                  Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

                                                  Now lets look at clutch hitting:



                                                  Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

                                                  Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

                                                  Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vasco
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 03-16-12
                                                    • 315

                                                    #8740
                                                    Tigers are a joke. Remind me of how the Jazz performed for us in NBA. LTA, what do you think of Lynn vs Peavy? Have to think you'll be jumping on the under. I also like Doubront and the Sox at +102 vs Miami, Philly and Washington -1 RL. Dickey at +143 is insane, but tough to go against Price. Looks like an under play. Looking forward to your thoughts on these games. It only takes 1 or 2 big days to get rolling. Let's do it.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • guil0000
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 01-18-11
                                                      • 472

                                                      #8741
                                                      Talking about insane... Houston and Happ getting +200
                                                      Comment
                                                      • coachkap
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-03-09
                                                        • 746

                                                        #8742
                                                        LTA .... I have been following your MLB and NBA threads now for quite some time... your record speaks for itself. I have been struggling too...but I'm determined to beat the books... as are you..it's not always reasonable to expect an easy time of it tho.... cuz if it were that easy to win consistent money, then it wouldn't be as satisfying when we win...... IMHO...Very few people on these threads who consistently post their plays are winners.. (except for the ones who occasionally bet BIG and luckily WIN on a random game)... when it comes to capping winners over the long haul you are Da Man ..I admire your determination, your trust in your system and your inner fortitude to win! Plus, you have the added burden of posting your plays and then dealing with everyone's criticism if you lose.... I like the way you deal with adversity without getting angry (oh well... for the most part..), try to use situations to educate the masses, and not lose your dignity... Dude, hang in there... You have winning ways.... and IMO you will always be successful...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pacocn
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 07-05-10
                                                          • 12934

                                                          #8743
                                                          Originally posted by Redscot
                                                          Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

                                                          First high leverage pitching situations:



                                                          Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

                                                          Now lets look at clutch hitting:



                                                          Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

                                                          Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

                                                          Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.
                                                          Red great stats, you are the stat guru, Is there anyway that you could post how
                                                          teams do when facing right handed vs. left handed pitching. I think this would be very
                                                          valuable information as well. Take your time and enjoy the beach.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pacocn
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-05-10
                                                            • 12934

                                                            #8744
                                                            Lta, i feel the heater warming up in the pen,
                                                            bol today, and lets get these books
                                                            Keep on grinding
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EXhoosier10
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-06-09
                                                              • 3122

                                                              #8745
                                                              Originally posted by pacocn
                                                              Red great stats, you are the stat guru, Is there anyway that you could post how
                                                              teams do when facing right handed vs. left handed pitching. I think this would be very
                                                              valuable information as well. Take your time and enjoy the beach.
                                                              I have these favorited

                                                              vs L


                                                              vs R
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #8746
                                                                MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/13/2012

                                                                Play #1

                                                                Mets/Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Play #2

                                                                Red Sox ML (+103) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Crazy day at work. This is what I am playing so far. Good luck.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • morningmoney
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 03-19-12
                                                                  • 145

                                                                  #8747
                                                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                  Off to the beach with the fam today for some R&R fellas, thought I'd share some stats before I am off. Lets look at high leverage situations, basically "clutch".

                                                                  First high leverage pitching situations:



                                                                  Not sure if it will link sorted, if not go to advanced tab and then sort for xfip. No surprise to see the Cubs at the bottom here. Interesting to note that the majority of top teams in this category can be seen as "surprises" or outperforming this year. Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates...etc.

                                                                  Now lets look at clutch hitting:



                                                                  Again go to advanced tab, and sort for wrc+. Rockies, BreCrew and Tigers in the top 5 here interestingly enough, and all are having disappointing seasons. Can we extrapolate from these small samples that clutch pitching trumps clutch hitting? Mets are dominating the category, have to wonder if they can keep it up.

                                                                  Anyway, these are just a few of the multitude of specialized stats you can get off fangraphs. An amazing resource for cappers and fans alike.

                                                                  Have a great day all, catch ya in the late afternoon.
                                                                  Awesome stuff, Redscot. Do you prefer using a player's wRC over his OPS+ to evaluate his offense? Or do you use both? Sorry if it's a stupid question. Thanks.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Redscot
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-16-11
                                                                    • 2571

                                                                    #8748
                                                                    Originally posted by morningmoney
                                                                    Awesome stuff, Redscot. Do you prefer using a player's wRC over his OPS+ to evaluate his offense? Or do you use both? Sorry if it's a stupid question. Thanks.
                                                                    Not stupid at all bro. This from Fangraphs:

                                                                    ● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s offensive value.

                                                                    I trust them. Plain and simple.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Redscot
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-16-11
                                                                      • 2571

                                                                      #8749
                                                                      WTF is this 2nd page shiznit, , not acceptable.

                                                                      Anyway, got back from the beach and am toasty in more ways than one. One of the questions nagging at me on the ride home (yeah I can't let go) was how The knuckleball fares in a dome environment. Now I see LTA is on the under so further piques my interest.....a quick glance shows that Wakefield was successful at the Trop over 130+ innings in his career, and although a different style of knuckleballer, that gives me some peace of mind.

                                                                      Oh, and the Nat's showed a little something this week huh! They are a division rival of my Muts, but kudos, credit where credit is due! They got no respect the first 2 games in Toronto from Vegas.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • morningmoney
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 03-19-12
                                                                        • 145

                                                                        #8750
                                                                        Originally posted by Redscot
                                                                        Not stupid at all bro. This from Fangraphs:

                                                                        ● If you’re thinking about using OPS+, use wRC+ instead. wRC+ is based off of wOBA and is regarded as a more accurate depiction of a player’s offensive value.

                                                                        I trust them. Plain and simple.
                                                                        Comment
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