LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012 Recap

0 - 2 - 1 = -1.55x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

2 - 3 = -0.85x

Got burned by not paying for the juice and taking LA/SD under 6.5 instead of 6....a calculated risk that did not work out. Back to the grind. Good luck on Saturday's huge card.

[Hunner24]

Hey LTA, not a bad start, one bad beat from being in the green. I have a probably stupid question. I like to tail your picks, and I was wondering how you only dropped 1.55u today. Shouldn't it be -1.05 on the Yanks game and .87u on the Astro's ML for a total of 1.92? Am I completely missing something?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/7/2012

Play #1

Brewers ML (-111) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups with all the NBA and MLB games to cap, but I will try to give you a few thoughts on each game. In this case, one of the angles I like in baseball is to fade a pitcher returning from injury and in this case Wainwright is going up against a stud in Greinke who should be focused after losing to the Cards in the playoffs. I have this game set at -121 giving us ten cents of value and I am rolling with the Brewers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Giants/Diamondbacks under (8) 1x (Locked)

The ump is Reynolds, but he has always had a high strike and last season his over tendency was reversed. My model loved these guys last season and even though that data is old and spring training is unreliable, I see no reason why these two young pitchers should not continue to improve. I have this game set at 6.9 and it would take a final score of 9 to beat the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Marlins ML (+144) 1x (Locked)

Anyone that followed me last year, knows that I have a great affinity for Mat Latos and my model loves him as well. However, in this game he is way overpriced. If this wasn't so early in the year, I would probably play this for more than one unit. If you look at lifetime numbers, both guys are 3.00 or better WAR guys and I think Nolasco's inconsistency may finally get straightened out this season. Throughout their careers, Nolasco has been the better performer early in the year and I expect a quality start on the road against Cincy. Miami is 0-2 on the year and not getting much respect against Nolasco opening up at +150. I have the Marlins set at +120 in this game giving us 24 cents of value in this spot and I am rolling with Miami for 1x. Good luck.

[brucethebear]

One of those nights where I should have played my leans only.
however, I did get lucky with angels tt over cashing in the 8th.

Lta, you talked in a previous post about taking the juice and sd at 6.5.
surely this is not a long term +ev play. Interested in your thoughts.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, not a bad start, one bad beat from being in the green. I have a probably stupid question. I like to tail your picks, and I was wondering how you only dropped 1.55u today. Shouldn't it be -1.05 on the Yanks game and .87u on the Astro's ML for a total of 1.92? Am I completely missing something?

Why would it be -0.87x for Houston?

They were a +115 underdog. That means I risked 0.50x to win 0.575x. I lost -1.05x on the Yankee under and -0.50x on Houston. That is -1.55x for the day.

[Hunner24]

Why would it be -0.87x for Houston?

They were a +115 underdog. That means I risked 0.50x to win 0.575x. I lost -1.05x on the Yankee under and -0.50x on Houston. That is -1.55x for the day.

Oh....you posted that you played Houston for 1x...

[Love The Action]

One of those nights where I should have played my leans only.
however, I did get lucky with angels tt over cashing in the 8th.

Lta, you talked in a previous post about taking the juice and sd at 6.5.
surely this is not a long term +ev play. Interested in your thoughts.

I have to be honest....I think you might be a bit confused. In baseball, everything is about price. That is the most important thing. I got a great price at +105 on under 6. However, if you do a half point calculation, I should have just played 6.5 (-125) because that is basically equal in price for the half point and I would have cashed on the under 6.5. If you read what I wrote earlier, I stated that I risked the push to avoid paying the heavy juice in this particular game because I didn't think the hook would come into play. I was wrong. Generally, I always choose to play the half point and pay the juice because you avoid push possibilities. In this game, Pinny closed at -101 on the under 6. Anyone who played under 6.5 (-125) or under 6 (+105) made a +EV play. Good luck dude.

[XGamer]

For the play Miami, is it risking 1 unit to win 1.44u, or risking .69u to win 1u?

[bmur714]

For the play Miami, is it risking 1 unit to win 1.44u, or risking .69u to win 1u?

His plays are to bet the unit value

[Love The Action]

Oh....you posted that you played Houston for 1x...

God damn it you are right. WTF.... I am so used to posting 1x from my NBA plays I must have just typed it in on my phone from habit. I played both totals for 1x and I played Houston ML for 0.50x. I apologize for any confusion, but I am tracking the plays I actually make.

I gotta be honest, I am starting to get worn out and sick of posting my plays. It's getting to much to handle posting all these plays for both NBA and MLB with writeups from my phone while I'm at work. I think I might need to stop posting writeups, at least until NBA's regular season is over. I like to help people out but it's getting to be too much between real life and trying cap baseball and basketball. I try to respond to post and answer PM's but I'm starting to ask myself how long I am actually going to do this. What's the point. I just don't have any time right now with work, being a dad and adding MLB to an already busy capping schedule of NBA. I only sleep 4 hours as it is....I'm starting to wonder why the fuk I waste so much time on SBR. Might be time to reevaluate....just sitting here on the computer, my whole family is asleep and I'm on SBR posting plays and wasting time. This is not +EV.

I think I just had an epiphany. SBR is a colossal waste of my time.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

if only there were some way to compensate you mr. LTA......if only...regardless, i've already made it my mission if im ever in the windy city to hunt you down and treat you to a nice long overdue night out to show my appreciation

[SlickRick1382]

God damn it you are right. WTF.... I am so used to posting 1x from my NBA plays I must have just typed it in on my phone from habit. I played both totals for 1x and I played Houston ML for 0.50x. I apologize for any confusion, but I am tracking the plays I actually make.

I gotta be honest, I am starting to get worn out and sick of posting my plays. It's getting to much to handle posting all these plays for both NBA and MLB with writeups from my phone while I'm at work. I think I might need to stop posting writeups, at least until NBA's regular season is over. I like to help people out but it's getting to be too much between real life and trying cap baseball and basketball. I try to respond to post and answer PM's but I'm starting to ask myself how long I am actually going to do this. What's the point. I just don't have any time right now with work, being a dad and adding MLB to an already busy capping schedule of NBA. I only sleep 4 hours as it is....I'm starting to wonder why the fuk I waste so much time on SBR. Might be time to reevaluate....just sitting here on the computer, my whole family is asleep and I'm on SBR posting plays and wasting time. This is not +EV.

I think I just had an epiphany. SBR is a colossal waste of my time.

Because you love us

Worst case scenario you can just post your plays whenever you make them without any write-ups for the time being until you feel you have adequate time. I'm sure 99.9% of us would rather see a play with no write-up than no play at all from you.

Appreciate all your hard work even if I don't post as much and hope you get a balance in your life to do everything. I can understand how tough and taxing it is. I only sleep 4 hours a day myself due to tax season and multiple business ventures I'm involved in. Trying to balance family life, my business, and trying to invest in sports (rather than just gambling) becomes very taxing...

[bmur714]

Nice...You and Dex both on this one makes it all the better!


Thank you LTA for your wealth of knowledge and discipline. With the grind of the NBA this season and now that MLB is getting started I'm sure it's taking time away from your family/sleep/non-sbr time but just know that all of us appreciate your hard work and in-depth write-ups day in and day out.


I can't say thank you enough and I hope I can take what I learned from your threads and be a successful sports investor capping on my own in the future

Lol... I posted this last night. 4 hours of sleep will get ya! I get about 4 hours of sleep on work nights and I have 2 jobs one is 12hr shifts and the other 10hr shifts averaging around 56 hours a week with 2 days off. I would'nt even have time to spend capping games without quitting my per diem job assuming the revenue from sports investing is greater... Hmmm... I see where your coming from LTA but write-ups or not everyone will still tail as will I. I just hope you don't cut out sbr completly... As of rt now anyway

On to tomorrow (im pst here and your probably already into tomorrow... Don't know how you do it bro)

[Love The Action]

Because you love us

Worst case scenario you can just post your plays whenever you make them without any write-ups for the time being until you feel you have adequate time. I'm sure 99.9% of us would rather see a play with no write-up than no play at all from you.

Appreciate all your hard work even if I don't post as much and hope you get a balance in your life to do everything. I can understand how tough and taxing it is. I only sleep 4 hours a day myself due to tax season and multiple business ventures I'm involved in. Trying to balance family life, my business, and trying to invest in sports (rather than just gambling) becomes very taxing...

Appreciate it dude....you're one of the best guys on here. I think I need a break though. Good luck.

[blackeyeshamus]

appreciate your work, LTA.
keep up the grind. best of luck on the bases in 2012.
right behind you as always. good luck!

[WVU9494]

I have posted some negative stuff on here in the past but it's obvious this guy is one of the most knowledgable people I have seen on SBR. I would be willing to send you 15% of my winnings from your picks if you keep posting.

[SlickRick1382]

Appreciate it dude....you're one of the best guys on here. I think I need a break though. Good luck.

Time to wind down and recharge the batteries is always needed and something you should definitely do every so often. Hopefully you come back recharged and excited. I personally take vacations every now and again to remind me why I work so hard. Although this isn't the exactly same but some time away from here and with the family can help, especially in the short-term. In the event you don't return in the near future, I just want to take the time out while I have you here to thank you for all you've taught me in the short amount of time I've been on this board and following you.

You've definitely helped countless people who could probably never repay you for the work and time you've put in. Hopefully I can repay you one day or at least take you out for a nice piece of steak and a drink when I visit the Windy City or if you ever happen to be in NYC.



I'm a stop' now before people think we have a bromance going on and I get emotional

[SlickRick1382]

I have posted some negative stuff on here in the past but it's obvious this guy is one of the most knowledgable people I have seen on SBR. I would be willing to send you 15% of my winnings from your picks if you keep posting.

It's not about money bro. You're obviously to young to understand and the fact that you would rather have him endure something that's mentally exhausting and taxing than step away for awhile shows your immaturity. One day you'll understand though ...

[jbart28]

I think I can say for the hundreds of lurkers that we all appreciate the time consuming hard work you do with your thread. Searching wind direction, will the dome be open or closed, baseball-data.com pitcher/hitter matchups, bullpen utilization and matchups, etc is very time consuming. TY

[WVU9494]

Don't patronize me you jackass. For one I am probably older then you and secondly there is no reason for him to post his picks everyday on here, I want to show him my appreciation for being able to log on here and make money off his picks with doing no work on my own.

Grow up son and get a clue.

[SlickRick1382]

Don't patronize me you jackass. For one I am probably older then you and secondly there is no reason for him to post his picks everyday on here, I want to show him my appreciation for being able to log on here and make money off his picks with doing no work on my own.

Grow up son and get a clue.

If by looking at my name you can't deduce whether or not you're older than me than I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're not. Also judging by how you write it's pretty easy to tell who is a youngin' and has some growing up to do from those of us who are adults...

My statement stands. You're offering him 15% of your winnings to IF HE KEEPS POSTING his plays. You didn't offer him 15% of your winnings while he was out here posting them before. Only now that he's contemplating taking a leave of absence. LTA isn't contemplating taking a leave because of financial reasons and I'm pretty certain he doesn't need your pennies.

Obviously your level of comprehension isn't suitable to continue this discussion so I'll leave it to you to say whatever you want and I won't reply. I won't derail this thread over someone who is only looking out for his or her own best interest and could care less about anyone else.

[brucethebear]

I have to be honest....I think you might be a bit confused. In baseball, everything is about price. That is the most important thing. I got a great price at +105 on under 6. However, if you do a half point calculation, I should have just played 6.5 (-125) because that is basically equal in price for the half point and I would have cashed on the under 6.5. If you read what I wrote earlier, I stated that I risked the push to avoid paying the heavy juice in this particular game because I didn't think the hook would come into play. I was wrong. Generally, I always choose to play the half point and pay the juice because you avoid push possibilities. In this game, Pinny closed at -101 on the under 6. Anyone who played under 6.5 (-125) or under 6 (+105) made a +EV play. Good luck dude.

You are exactly right. I was thinking of Your posts about buying points in the nba. Your reply makes perfect sense.

[brucethebear]

God damn it you are right. WTF.... I am so used to posting 1x from my NBA plays I must have just typed it in on my phone from habit. I played both totals for 1x and I played Houston ML for 0.50x. I apologize for any confusion, but I am tracking the plays I actually make.

I gotta be honest, I am starting to get worn out and sick of posting my plays. It's getting to much to handle posting all these plays for both NBA and MLB with writeups from my phone while I'm at work. I think I might need to stop posting writeups, at least until NBA's regular season is over. I like to help people out but it's getting to be too much between real life and trying cap baseball and basketball. I try to respond to post and answer PM's but I'm starting to ask myself how long I am actually going to do this. What's the point. I just don't have any time right now with work, being a dad and adding MLB to an already busy capping schedule of NBA. I only sleep 4 hours as it is....I'm starting to wonder why the fuk I waste so much time on SBR. Might be time to reevaluate....just sitting here on the computer, my whole family is asleep and I'm on SBR posting plays and wasting time. This is not +EV.

I think I just had an epiphany. SBR is a colossal waste of my time.

I am just one of many who are better sports investors directly because of your threads.
you have the cred that people will follow you, write up or not.
i myself have a 2.5 year old. They demand a lot of your time, but no amount of money can make up for those treasured times with your little one. That is +ev.

Today is my first day not working in a month. I am almost too tired to play with my boy. Definitely not +ev.

All the best mate, whatever you decide.

[Catchn_Picks]

LTA:

What do you do when your allergies blow up, you cannot breath and you wake up in the middle of the night? Take a pill and wait for it to kick in and go to LTA's threads!

I saw your recent posts in both the NBA/MLB. No way can anyone write something back to you strong enough to overcome your heartfelt musings. Frankly, I have been following both threads lately watching picks flying out of you at all hours of the day and night and was getting dizzy myself. On occasion I had to remind myself that "hey, there is an actual guy out there sorting through all this crap to discover +ev plays". It is easy to take you for granted as some sort of handicapping life force and that is not something I wanted to do.

Why you continued to post and provide this service cannot be answered by us...only you. I could give you a dozen reasons why you do what you do, but they would all be educated guesses at best. Also, life is one evolving mass of stuff. What makes great sense today could look downright silly tomorrow.

I do not know what you do for a living, but I'm pretty sure it is not factory work. (No offense anyone) But I fashion your greatest strength here to be a teacher. That is why the write-ups have always been a constant for you. I suspect that is the fun part and provided value for you. And that sets you apart. It also takes valuable time to think, write and teach. Life changes and so do priorities.

What ever you decide to do we all will make our own adjustments, move on and keep searching for another LTA...wherever he/she is. For me, the "boys club" atmosphere of sweating and winning a game together was the most fun. And you created that by providing the thread environment that attracted posters who are a cut above the norm with many intelligent, funny, witty contributors. This is/was a place to learn and have fun. If you were to never post again... nobody can take that away from you.

You mostly kept the knuckleheads out by challenging their intellect (rather than just calling them names) until they found somewhere else to lurk. You managed the thread and kept it more pure than most...maybe your strongest attribute of all. This has been a safe haven...a sports oasis in its purest form where crybabies and whiners and quitters do not seem to find a permanent home. So here we are left with mostly "good guys". I don't think this happened by accident. It takes precious time to maintain this port in a storm.

Because of your thread I decided to start posting. It is an environment in which I could feel safe. For that alone, I wish to thank you.

I am behind you 100% for whatever you do. I hope most of us can agree that LTA will always = +EV.

Pill has kicked in...I can now return to breathing again. BOL always.

Catchn

[Madison]

God damn it you are right. WTF.... I am so used to posting 1x from my NBA plays I must have just typed it in on my phone from habit. I played both totals for 1x and I played Houston ML for 0.50x. I apologize for any confusion, but I am tracking the plays I actually make.

I gotta be honest, I am starting to get worn out and sick of posting my plays. It's getting to much to handle posting all these plays for both NBA and MLB with writeups from my phone while I'm at work. I think I might need to stop posting writeups, at least until NBA's regular season is over. I like to help people out but it's getting to be too much between real life and trying cap baseball and basketball. I try to respond to post and answer PM's but I'm starting to ask myself how long I am actually going to do this. What's the point. I just don't have any time right now with work, being a dad and adding MLB to an already busy capping schedule of NBA. I only sleep 4 hours as it is....I'm starting to wonder why the fuk I waste so much time on SBR. Might be time to reevaluate....just sitting here on the computer, my whole family is asleep and I'm on SBR posting plays and wasting time. This is not +EV.

I think I just had an epiphany. SBR is a colossal waste of my time.

Sorry to hear this LTA but totally understand as I'm in a somewhat similar situation. One of the primary reasons that I follow your thread is right wrong you provide your insight. I don't tail much but certainly only after you or a few others open my eyes with some sound logic. Here's hoping you can find some peace and balance which will allow to continue to post. Either way all the best.

[Madison]

Hopefully we'll continue to see LTA even if it's in a reduced capacity.

Interesting note from yesterday. I usually do a mark up (general notations) from past performance. I marked it up yesterday morning and got sidetracked and am just getting back to it now. If you blindly just played based on last years perf vs opp you would have nearly swept the card. I think of all the clear choices McCarthy OAK was the only loser.

[dallasspartan]

LTA, do you ever bet no runs in the first? any value betting on this or a waste of time?

Thanks as always

[Redscot]

From another site, comments are my own: The Ump should NOT be a deciding factor imo. Only added the home team bias bit because over each of these guys last 200 + games home team has won 67% of time more than 10 % over the league average.

"In the book Scorecasting, they suggested that the homefield advantage in baseball really comes down to the umpires giving the home team "the call" on close ball/strike calls and on the bases. It was pretty interesting stuff." from baseball-reference

Cle: Carlson
NYM: Cooper
Chi: Danley
Det: Miller ----------------- - High Strike %
Pit: Vanover
Cin: Ted Barrett ------------ home team bias?
Tex: Bell -------------------- home team bias?
TB: Holbrook -----------------leans to over
Bal: Nelson
Mil: Diaz-------------------- tends to be a pitchers ump
Hou: Barksdale
Arz: Reynolds
LA: Davidson
SD: Emmel
Oak: O'Nora -----------------Healthy strike %

LTA what you think about my Muts today? I actually like them here on a Jurrjens fade , Dickey almost always keeps them in the game and the moved in fences shouldn't effect him much....strange for a Knuckler he gets a lot of GB's.

[BiffTFinancial]

Appreciate it dude....you're one of the best guys on here. I think I need a break though. Good luck.

LTA, just read through the last page really quickly, and wanted to chime in with two things: (1) thank you very much as always for sharing your time, plays and knowledge. i'm no sycophant, but last year was my first season capping bases, and reading your thread is like going to class with a good professor - it's gold, and (2) your time and your life are yours. what you share with SBR is pure gratuity and you don't have to do it and shouldn't feel obligated to do so (although i know why you do - i'm guessing that you don't do anything halfway). you do this because you're good at it, but you're probably good at a lot of things and the problem is that you can't create more than 24 hours in a day. SBR is great, but it's a black hole of time, so if you feel that it's taking too much of yours, no one here could possibly begrudge you taking whatever break you might need.

happiness and health to you and your family, and thank you as always.

[bmansell33]

Redscot where did you find home plate umps at so early?

[WVU9494]

If by looking at my name you can't deduce whether or not you're older than me than I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're not. Also judging by how you write it's pretty easy to tell who is a youngin' and has some growing up to do from those of us who are adults...

My statement stands. You're offering him 15% of your winnings to IF HE KEEPS POSTING his plays. You didn't offer him 15% of your winnings while he was out here posting them before. Only now that he's contemplating taking a leave of absence. LTA isn't contemplating taking a leave because of financial reasons and I'm pretty certain he doesn't need your pennies.

Obviously your level of comprehension isn't suitable to continue this discussion so I'll leave it to you to say whatever you want and I won't reply. I won't derail this thread over someone who is only looking out for his or her own best interest and could care less about anyone else.

you are obviously a little mentally off and looking for an argument. I have been reading his posts for a month now and just started tailing him recently. I am offering a percentage of my winnings out of pure gratitude and it is the correct thing to do (you should do the same). He deserves it for the time he spends. I made $25000 off the road series thread and did the same there.

Please stop posting you are ruining this thread.

[BiffTFinancial]

Redscot where did you find home plate umps at so early?

the game match-up pages on covers will always have them for series that are underway. there are also daily threads that track and discuss umps at cappingthegame.com in their discussion forums (usually refer to as "stalking the umps" or something similar) where the series is not already underway. FYI, for future reference, in a given series, the ump at 1B in a given game will move behind the plate in the following game.

[Redscot]

Redscot where did you find home plate umps at so early?

Once a series has started umps rotate clockwise, so whomever was at 1B gets HP the next game. However, my lazy ass usually goes to this dude, who does a great job of "stalking" the umps as he puts it:

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?136842-Saturday-s-umps-weather-and-stuff

[BiffTFinancial]

Once a series has started umps rotate clockwise, so whomever was at 1B gets HP the next game. However, my lazy ass usually goes to this dude, who does a great job of "stalking" the umps as he puts it:

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?136842-Saturday-s-umps-weather-and-stuff

great minds think alike, Redscot.

also, guys, please do not argue in LTA's thread. we all know that he does not appreciate it. BOL to all today and hope that you and yours have a nice holiday weekend (whatever holidays you might celebrate).

[bmansell33]

Thanks guys