LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

Good stuff, thanks. What is the pitch count for strasburg? 100?

I know a lot of guys expect a regression for romero and masterson, but I think both will pitch as well or better tham last year. Are there any health issues with either romero or masterson. That total is set low for a reason as the books are begging for over money opening at 7. They are set to collect a ton of juice on a 4-2 game. By gametime, the wind is projected to blow in at 15mph and its cold in cleveland as well in the high 40's/low 50's. Why didnt they stretch romero out more than 11 innings?

I would imagine Stras is probably around 100 today, his inning count may be more of an issue for the team as the season wears on. I agree with you about Cleveland to a degree. Masterson 3.21 era last year and Romero 2.92, I don't either one of them bests those numbers this year. However, the wind and cold definitely favor the under, and Cleveland's left handed batters should almost all be platoon players, it's a joke. Not sure why Romero only threw 11 inning's to be honest, in his last start it got rained delayed after 2 innings though.

[apurvaas]

one quick question.. If I put the bet, do I select pitchers or just action? I know it is dumb to bet when you know nothing about the game but i love action

[Redscot]

one quick question.. If I put the bet, do I select pitchers or just action? I know it is dumb to bet when you know nothing about the game but i love action

I would recommend pitchers, this gives you protection if there is a late change and they scratch a pitcher, which greatly affects how the game is capped.

[No coincidences]

I would imagine Stras is probably around 100 today, his inning count may be more of an issue for the team as the season wears on. I agree with you about Cleveland to a degree. Masterson 3.21 era last year and Romero 2.92, I don't either one of them bests those numbers this year. However, the wind and cold definitely favor the under, and Cleveland's left handed batters should almost all be platoon players, it's a joke. Not sure why Romero only threw 11 inning's to be honest, in his last start it got rained delayed after 2 innings though.

Strasburg's not going above 160 innings this year according to the team.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good stuff, thanks. What is the pitch count for strasburg? 100?

I know a lot of guys expect a regression for romero and masterson, but I think both will pitch as well or better tham last year. Are there any health issues with either romero or masterson. That total is set low for a reason as the books are begging for over money opening at 7. They are set to collect a ton of juice on a 4-2 game. By gametime, the wind is projected to blow in at 15mph and its cold in cleveland as well in the high 40's/low 50's. Why didnt they stretch romero out more than 11 innings?

spot on LTA. i walked outside this morning to get the paper and the first thing i thought of is that it is not a day for hitting. flag at Jacobs Field agrees at the moment. so long as the ump is not a strong over ump, i plan to be on the under. no rush, though, as the number keeps getting better (under 7.5 now down to -115).

[killersweet]

Good stuff, thanks. What is the pitch count for strasburg? 100?

I know a lot of guys expect a regression for romero and masterson, but I think both will pitch as well or better tham last year. Are there any health issues with either romero or masterson. That total is set low for a reason as the books are begging for over money opening at 7. They are set to collect a ton of juice on a 4-2 game. By gametime, the wind is projected to blow in at 15mph and its cold in cleveland as well in the high 40's/low 50's. Why didnt they stretch romero out more than 11 innings?

I don’t think there are any health issues with Romero. He is the ace/leader for the Jays and is probably expected to go 7/8 innings in the regular season games regularly. I believe Jays offence is better this year than last year and the bullpen is vastly improved, helping Romero get more wins this year.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012

Play #1

Dodgers ML (-145) 0.75x (Locked)

I don't play such high-priced road faves often and the books are charging a premium to play Kershaw in this game. However, that's not enough to deter my Dodger money in this spot. Although my model does not have reliable data at this point, I would price the Dodgers around -155 in this spot which where I expect this game to close. For comparison sakes, Strasburg and the Natties are set as -155 road faves against a Cubs team with a better pitcher (Dempster) than Volquez, so I see no reason why Kershaw should not be priced higher in this spot. Make no mistake, the Dodgers have plenty of weaknesses, including a suspect offense and bullpen. However, when you consider their opponent in this game, I still like LA to win because SD just does not have the bats to take it to Kershaw. I don't put much stock into spring training numbers, but Ethier looked good, and with Loney and Kemp, the Dodgers have the better offensive capabilities against an inconsistent pitcher like Volquez. I realize this is a "public" play, but I like everything I have read so far on Kershaw's approach heading into the season. He definitely put the work in and that tells me he wants to continue to get better rather than rest on his laurels like some great pitchers before him. I like that attitude and I think Kershaw comes out focused on Thursday night in what should be a 100 or so pitch effort. Because they are playing in Petco, I am confident that LA's bullpen can get through 2-3 innings and limit the light-hitting Padres. I have this game set around -155 giving us about 10 cents of value on this play. Based on the foregoing, i am rolling with the Dodgers for 0.75x now, with a possibility of adding to that stake sometime tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Cubs under (6)(+105) 0.50x (Locked)

I could pay -125 for the 1/2 run but I prefer to risk the push at plus money. We have two solid pitchers against weak offenses and both defenses are supposed to be improved. The wind is blowing in and its a bit chilly for baseball so that is great under weather. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 0.50x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Remember....there is no reason to play big the first couple weeks of the season. My baseball units are starting out at $550 per 1x so I will be conservative with my stakes to start the season (lot of 0.50x and 0.75x plays) and I recommend you do the same. Still looking at one more play for today. Good luck.

[apurvaas]

I would recommend pitchers, this gives you protection if there is a late change and they scratch a pitcher, which greatly affects how the game is capped.

thanks

[JM92]

Only able to get that at - 120 Should I go?

[Notorious_Donk]

Remember....there is no reason to play big the first couple weeks of the season. My baseball units are starting out at $550 per 1x so I will be conservative with my stakes to start the season (lot of 0.50x and 0.75x plays) and I recommend you do the same. Still looking at one more play for today. Good luck.

Best money management tip ever. I usually don't start until a couple weeks into the season, but if I bet before that its always lower than my usual bets.

[bmansell33]

Play #2

Nationals/Cubs under (6)(+105) 0.50x (Locked)

I could pay -125 for the 1/2 run but I prefer to risk the push at plus money. We have two solid pitchers against weak offenses and both defenses are supposed to be improved. The wind is blowing in and its a bit chilly for baseball so that is great under weather. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 0.50x. Good luck.

Whos behind the plate umping

[bmurphy003]

LTA & Co.--

Im new to MLB betting but have been betting NFL and NBA for a little while. I know with the NBA at least there is some form of revenge, if a team gets beat really bad, there going to come out hard the next game and cover most of the time. How important is a factor like that play out in MLB betting? I guess if I had to sum it up, what would you say the most important factors are to capping an MLB game. Thanks for your hard work and look forward to your answer.

[Love The Action]

LTA & Co.--

Im new to MLB betting but have been betting NFL and NBA for a little while. I know with the NBA at least there is some form of revenge, if a team gets beat really bad, there going to come out hard the next game and cover most of the time. How important is a factor like that play out in MLB betting? I guess if I had to sum it up, what would you say the most important factors are to capping an MLB game. Thanks for your hard work and look forward to your answer.

Qualitative or.situational analysis has almost no relevancy in baseball. Baseball is primarily stat driven imho. Dont waste your time or money on situational factors in mlb. GL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012

Play #1

Dodgers ML (-145) 0.75x (Locked)

I don't play such high-priced road faves often and the books are charging a premium to play Kershaw in this game. However, that's not enough to deter my Dodger money in this spot. Although my model does not have reliable data at this point, I would price the Dodgers around -155 in this spot which where I expect this game to close. For comparison sakes, Strasburg and the Natties are set as -155 road faves against a Cubs team with a better pitcher (Dempster) than Volquez, so I see no reason why Kershaw should not be priced higher in this spot. Make no mistake, the Dodgers have plenty of weaknesses, including a suspect offense and bullpen. However, when you consider their opponent in this game, I still like LA to win because SD just does not have the bats to take it to Kershaw. I don't put much stock into spring training numbers, but Ethier looked good, and with Loney and Kemp, the Dodgers have the better offensive capabilities against an inconsistent pitcher like Volquez. I realize this is a "public" play, but I like everything I have read so far on Kershaw's approach heading into the season. He definitely put the work in and that tells me he wants to continue to get better rather than rest on his laurels like some great pitchers before him. I like that attitude and I think Kershaw comes out focused on Thursday night in what should be a 100 or so pitch effort. Because they are playing in Petco, I am confident that LA's bullpen can get through 2-3 innings and limit the light-hitting Padres. I have this game set around -155 giving us about 10 cents of value on this play. Based on the foregoing, i am rolling with the Dodgers for 0.75x now, with a possibility of adding to that stake sometime tomorrow. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Cubs under (6)(+105) 0.50x (Locked)

I could pay -125 for the 1/2 run but I prefer to risk the push at plus money. We have two solid pitchers against weak offenses and both defenses are supposed to be improved. The wind is blowing in and its a bit chilly for baseball so that is great under weather. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 0.50x. Good luck.

Play #3

Blue Jays/Indians under (7.5)(-120) 0.50x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. Good luck.

[mikea33]

Thanks LTA!!! Pumped to get rollin'
We are going to kill it

[SoxSide Irish]

Nationals 2-1!!

[apurvaas]

Play #3

Blue Jays/Indians under (7.5)(-120) 0.50x (Locked)

No time for a writeup. Good luck.

Thanks for the play

[SoxSide Irish]

Wow spoke to soon, just blew the save and blew our win

[BigBoi]

Chris Perez sucks

[Love The Action]

Exactly...please wait for the game to end. Fuking 3 runs in the 9th inning....chris perez is a piece of shit.

[XGamer]

Tough loss!

[mikea33]

Wow early bad break! Jeez

[meader99]

Silly baseball Gods. Went and took Verlander and the Tigers on the RL saw they went up 2-0 after 8......... palayed the Nats and Phils ML's with the Jays/Tribe under saw 4-1 after 8........You know the rest of the story.......

[adam3248]

Why have the Dodgers pulled Kershaw out after pitching just 3 innings? I'm not watching the game just following it on mlb at-bat. whats up??

[Dexter]

Strasburg's not going above 160 innings this year according to the team.

positive about that?

i drafted him and was hoping for 200....should have done my homework, but he is my #3 behind Lee and Price...

[riffraff24]

yone have a link for the dodger game?

[ramfan47]

Kershaw has the flu.

[meader99]

Dodgers are on MLB Network.

[ronnieseah]

No kershaw. No problem.

[cnote24]

just went up by 4... took the -1 1/2 for the Dodgers even knowing kershaw wasnt gonna be 100% GOOO GET'EM DODGERS

[Kurtz]

Great start on the baseball season! Thanks LTA!

[remypom]

Nice lta!!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +0.70x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

2 - 1 = +0.70x

Chris Perez ruined what could have been a perfect opening day, but it was a profitable one nonetheless as we commence the 8 month grind in the green. Good luck on Friday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012

Play #1

Yankees/Devil Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

One of my favorite pitching matchups that brought us well over 4x in profit last season. Although these teams are familiar with both pitchers, they also have a very difficult time scoring runs when they pitch against each other. The game is being played in one of the best under parks in baseball and TB loves to play "small ball" which can lead to less big innings. Although we have really solid hitters on both teams, it's still early and good pitching generally has the advantage in April. Based on last year's stats together with spring training numbers, I would expect that this one close at (7)(-115 or -120). Therefore, I'm locking this one in now as I suspect it will drop by tomorrow morning and rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.