LTA's MLB Plays

[Dexter]

MLB Final Record for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB Final Record for 2011 Playoffs

18 - 13 = +5.182

Tough last two days of the season, but a great season overall making enough money to pay for a full year of daycare for the baby and a 10 day luxurious vacation to pretty much anywhere in the world my wife and I want to go.

Lets just say my wife is happy with my final profit numbers and that is all that matters.

Thanks for a great season!

Time to concentrate on NBA, NFL, NCAAF and some spot plays in NHL and CBB. Can't wait till next years MLB already.

This will be our thread for every badeball season that I am on SBR, so check back in around spring training or hot stove news.

Good luck!

great season LTA. you're a sharp dude...

[Redscot]

Just thought I would share this since it's the off season.

About 5 months ago my son came home from his baseball academy and told me about this "machine" he saw. He said he had just witnessed an absolute beast at the practice field. I pressed him but he didn't remember the name,only that he was Cuban, and he was there with his agent and Ahman Greene (go figure). I just filed it away.

Well last week I had the privilege of attending a tryout/showcase for the "Cuban" whose name turns out to be Yoennis Cespedes. Wow, is all I can say. Tony Pena summed it up in one word "incredible". He is mid 20's about 5 '10" or so and built as solid as can be....I mean not an iota of excess meat on this guy, physically superior being . So anyway, they brought in various pitchers from the Dominican Winter league to pitch to him,offering different styles, righty/lefty power/finesse. Kid has bat speed that I have rarely witnessed in person, generates ridiculous power. At the request of the batting coach he sprayed the ball all over the park, displaying easy opposite field power. He did some running and displayed + speed, shagged fly's and showed + range and + arm.....the best thing is he has the 6th tool...he understands the game and is a humble dude all things considered.

He had great success in the Cuban League and was on their WBC team.
I am not one to throw around superlatives easily, and it was a "showcase" although the pitchers were throwing full speed...but once this kids papers are in order I think teams will break the bank. IMO, kid goes straight to the majors once he is signed. Special, special talent.

[Pluthero]

I just watched most of his 20 minute promo video on youtube. It's hard to show that "sixth tool" on video, but one thing's for sure...he's going to be RICH.

[Redscot]

I just watched most of his 20 minute promo video on youtube. It's hard to show that "sixth tool" on video, but one thing's for sure...he's going to be RICH.

Hadn't seen that video but found it. His "agent" here is so typical, but this guy takes the cake...like I said he had Ahman Greene with him as well ?

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/07/the-scouting-video-of-yoennis-cespedes-is-absolutely-ridiculous/

edit: only to find the link doesn't work LOL.

[wade1]

How many days till spring training

[Love The Action]

Only about 23 or so days away from spring training

[Dexter]

Only about 23 or so days away from spring training

[Redscot]

Fausto Carmona AKA Roberto Hernandez Heredia detained in the US Embassy down here today for using a false identity......

[Love The Action]

Fausto Carmona AKA Roberto Hernandez Heredia detained in the US Embassy down here today for using a false identity......

What happened? How old did he turn out to really be?

[Redscot]

What happened? How old did he turn out to really be?

3 years older, 31. There will be more of this to come unless players come out and divulge. Sandy Alderson's stint a couple years back down here has cleaned up a lot of the mess that was. Going forward it is going to be a lot harder to pull the wool over the eyes of the system. At 16, the eligible age for signing down here, potential prospects need to get blood work done (anti-doping is checked here) and fingerprinting. It's a very complicated subject, it's easy to villify the players, but one has to understand the background, and the way the system operated down here for decades, with MLB complicity.

[Redscot]

On another note, rumors have it that Gerardo Concepcion has signed with the Cubs for roughly 7 million/ 5 years. Concepcion is a Cuban defector who was the rookie of the year in the Cuban leagues last season. He's a lefty and is around 18 years old, although he is not a flamethrower like Chapman, he has decent pop on his fastball (low 90's) and has a bigger repertoire. He will be invited to Spring training, but is not expected to make the club this year. There were a lot of scouts checking this guy out, and Nolan Ryan himself was down here a couple of weeks ago. I think the Cubs got a steal here, that's less than a lot of signing bonus' for draft picks.

[gushman]

Looking forward to the season LTA

[mikea33]

LTA are you going to start a new tyhread?

[Redscot]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7570918/yoenis-cespedes-agrees-4-year-36-million-deal-oakland-athletics

Very interesting. Billy Beane's brain trust shelling out bucks for an unproven commodity, not really their style. Not to mention it is not like the signing was motivated by the lure of a big Hispanic community etc. As for Cespedes it will probably help him not being in the pressure cooker of the huge Cuban community in Florida. Staying out of the cold North East is a plus as well as not being in an overly aggressive media market. My gut says that this kid has a Vernon Wells ceiling, but that is all based on physical tools (interestingly enough I saw a publication I respect a lot make the same comparison).....much remains to be seen.

[Love The Action]

Anyone have a link to what the MLB season win totals for each team opened at? I want to see how far some of these team win totals have moved when compared to what I can currently get. Thanks.

[Highness]

pinnacle still hasn't opened. i'll be looking to bet the angels under and against them early on. trumbo's defense at third is going to be the biggest liability in all of baseball, worse than reynolds based on what I've heard. bourjos is hurt, ervin is a walking injury risk. i just cannot imagine that they are going to be properly valued

any word on how strasburg is going to be used? I've heard a 160 innings strict limit. I'd assume they are starting him from opening but that would be a terrible idea because he's gone if they make the playoffs and any chance they would have goes with him

[HarbaughTilting]

Team Win Totals

Hey LTA,

I was looking for a way to thank you for all the stuff I learned following your NBA thread. And I'm stoked to see you are doing MLB as well.

These Team Win Totals opened on Tuesday February 14th 2012 in Reno sportsbook. I haven't found anything earlier. But comparing these with my local European books some Totals have already moved quite a bit.

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5

(Source: http://bit.ly/yHptUJ)

[Redscot]

pinnacle still hasn't opened. i'll be looking to bet the angels under and against them early on. trumbo's defense at third is going to be the biggest liability in all of baseball, worse than reynolds based on what I've heard. bourjos is hurt, ervin is a walking injury risk. i just cannot imagine that they are going to be properly valued

any word on how strasburg is going to be used? I've heard a 160 innings strict limit. I'd assume they are starting him from opening but that would be a terrible idea because he's gone if they make the playoffs and any chance they would have goes with him

What's the thought on the Angels unders? You think Pujols presence alone will push overvalue on the overs? In my early workups, I have 3 of the guys in the rotation set for some serious regression. I have Weaver's era jumping 1.19, Santana's .62, and Wilson's .57. 4 of the 5 Angels starters (WEaver aside) have high GB%, so if TRumbo is as bad at 3rd as advertised could play a factor as well, although they are very strong defensively up the middle. Incredibly, EVERY single BP arm also seems like they could be in line for some regression this year, most notable Downs, Hawkins, Takahashi and Cassevah. Obviously they still boast an above average pitching staff, question is how they will be valued........

[Highness]

What's the thought on the Angels unders? You think Pujols presence alone will push overvalue on the overs? In my early workups, I have 3 of the guys in the rotation set for some serious regression. I have Weaver's era jumping 1.19, Santana's .62, and Wilson's .57. 4 of the 5 Angels starters (WEaver aside) have high GB%, so if TRumbo is as bad at 3rd as advertised could play a factor as well, although they are very strong defensively up the middle. Incredibly, EVERY single BP arm also seems like they could be in line for some regression this year, most notable Downs, Hawkins, Takahashi and Cassevah. Obviously they still boast an above average pitching staff, question is how they will be valued........

There could be value in certain pitchers. I'd be careful with Weaver. He seems to be one of the few that consistently induces weak contact and sports a lower than avg BABIP. To think his ERA will soar to 3.60 I think is way underselling him. None of the projections I've seen have him over 3.20 and I'd tend to agree. As for CJ, i think thats also a pretty big jump when he's going from texas to that angels stadium

[Redscot]

There could be value in certain pitchers. I'd be careful with Weaver. He seems to be one of the few that consistently induces weak contact and sports a lower than avg BABIP. To think his ERA will soar to 3.60 I think is way underselling him. None of the projections I've seen have him over 3.20 and I'd tend to agree. As for CJ, i think thats also a pretty big jump when he's going from texas to that angels stadium

Very true about Weaver, the assembly line number I drew on him probably needs some further definition. That being said, his hr/9, babip, and lob% of last year all reflect higher than the norm for him, law of averages says he comes back down to earth some, I doubt it is as much as 3.60. As for C.J., you know that the advanced stats of this day and age, neutralize BallPark's...not discounting that there are some realities that the stats don't catch.

I am in early stages of crunching numbers, and the Angels are the ONLY team thus far where the 5 starters, 6 primary relievers, AND the closer all project regression from last years advanced stats. Much work to be done obviously, these are numbers without personality atm.....but it is what it is.

[Highness]

Very true about Weaver, the assembly line number I drew on him probably needs some further definition. That being said, his hr/9, babip, and lob% of last year all reflect higher than the norm for him, law of averages says he comes back down to earth some, I doubt it is as much as 3.60. As for C.J., you know that the advanced stats of this day and age, neutralize BallPark's

FIP and xFIP are just pure walks/Ks/HRs not regressed to any park averages. Regardless, what I meant is that if his ERA outperformed FIP by .30 last year(and .20 the year before) pitching half his games at Arlington, you should expect his ERA to outperform his FIP even more at the Angels park. He's outperformed his FIP in both full seasons starting so I see no reason to expect any kind of regression especially considering the boost he will get ERA wise pitching in anaheim. And all of his pitching peripherals improved significantly so there's not even a hint that there's a coming correction: .8 K/9 improvement over last year and issuing a walk less per 9 while increasing swstr% from 6.7 to 8.3, first strike % from 54.1 to 58.5, o-swing % 23.5 to 29.1. The baseball public and media vastly underrate him because of his playoff performance which is nice as if he gets off to a slow start the pricing might get skewed

[Redscot]

FIP and xFIP are just pure walks/Ks/HRs not regressed to any park averages. Regardless, what I meant is that if his ERA outperformed FIP by .30 last year(and .20 the year before) pitching half his games at Arlington, you should expect his ERA to outperform his FIP even more at the Angels park. He's outperformed his FIP in both full seasons starting so I see no reason to expect any kind of regression especially considering the boost he will get ERA wise pitching in anaheim. And all of his pitching peripherals improved significantly so there's not even a hint that there's a coming correction: .8 K/9 improvement over last year and issuing a walk less per 9 while increasing swstr% from 6.7 to 8.3, first strike % from 54.1 to 58.5, o-swing % 23.5 to 29.1. The baseball public and media vastly underrate him because of his playoff performance which is nice as if he gets off to a slow start the pricing might get skewed

Good to be having a baseball debate finally . While not necessarily disagreeing regarding the size of regression to be expected from Weaver this year, a couple more thoughts. First off SIERA (3.67) IS park adjusted, and Xfip (3.80) places all pitchers at the league average for HR/FB rate. Couple that with the fact that WEaver had a HR/FB rate like 25% below his career averages, a Babip of .250, .026 lower than his career averages and a lob% of 82.6%, 6% higher than his career average. He's an outstanding pitcher, and perhaps underrated, but I think 2011 goes down as his "career" year.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA,

I was looking for a way to thank you for all the stuff I learned following your NBA thread. And I'm stoked to see you are doing MLB as well.

These Team Win Totals opened on Tuesday February 14th 2012 in Reno sportsbook. I haven't found anything earlier. But comparing these with my local European books some Totals have already moved quite a bit.

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5

(Source: http://bit.ly/yHptUJ)

Thank you very much!

[Love The Action]

Great discussion Red and High.....a welcome relief from the non-substantive posts in my nba thread. Looking forward to hearing more of your thoughts.

[BigBoi]

I really enjoy reading your insight on games, LTA. I remember last fall you and Red discussing plays and made me a pretty penny. Hoping for the same this season.

[oliver10]

just found this thread good read thanks

[Redscot]

For those of you interested in daily lineups I have found this site to be reliable and timely.

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

[Dimex9]

thx for info...good luck

[Love The Action]

From Covers: Best Under Parks in MLB

Baseball has long been viewed as a statistics sport, something to pour over, column after column, during those long, summer months. We used to study the newspapers. Now, we study webpages.

But the desired results are the same. As total bettors, you want to give yourself the best advantage to win as much as possible through the grind of 162 games.

One of the best feathers you can put in your cap these days is ballpark statistics. Studying and analyzing how many runs a certain stadium produces on a daily basis can be a useful tool for over/under handicapping

Here are the ballparks that averaged the fewest runs scored last year. You might find a surprise or two:

Team: Philadelphia Phillies.
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.65.
Home Over-Under Record: 36-39-6.

Wasn’t long ago that critics were calling “Citizens” the Coors Field of the North. Home runs were flying out of there during the early days. But now that the Phillies focus is on pitching, times have changed. Philadelphia no longer has big boppers. Ryan Howard is one, but he will start the season on the disabled list, and Raul Ibanez is with the Yankees now.

The Phillies draw walks now, steal bases, and try to grind out just enough offense to make their star starters -- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels -- 20-game winners. Clearly, they’d still love to have some heavy lumber in the lineup, but they are what they are.

And along the way, they’ve become a decent under buy, like it or not. With the makeup of the team, it’s hard to argue. When you throw out those kinds of pitchers on a daily basis, you’re going to compile unders no matter where you play.


Team: Oakland Athletics.
Stadium: O.co Coliseum.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.95.
Home Over-Under Record: 43-30-8.

Call it what you will, this stadium, which loses names more than the Athletics traditionally lose stars to free agency, has long been a haven for unders. It's now O.co Coliseum, and in the past, it was the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Network Associates Coliseum, McAfee Coliseum, and Overstock.com Coliseum.

But it doesn't matter. For the totals player, it's big, there's a ton of foul ground, and that leads to more unproductive outs. It helps, of course, that Oakland has been in love with the "Moneyball" approach that keeps star power out of uniform.

But oddmakers are an intelligent crew. They’ve seen what goes on in Oakland and so, traditionally, they adjust their lines. Which is why the Athletics were solid over buys last season at home, despite the fact that they couldn’t average eight runs a game.

Team: Seattle Mariners.
Stadium: Safeco Field.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 7.02.
Home Over-Under Record: 32-43-6.

Lots of reasons for unders in the Pacific Northwest. One, the books traditionally don’t value Safeco has much as they do O.co and that give totals players an edge. Two, the Mariners -- with Ichiro leading the way for what seems like forever -- have long been a doubles team, and not a homer run team.

And three -- and this is very underrated -- many, many East teams hit Seattle at the tail end of West Coast road trips. That means they’re worn out, they’re tired, and they miss their bedrooms. That often leads to some weary bats.

Let’s not forget the pitching, too. That played a big part in that 7.02 average. The Mariners had a team ERA of 3.90 last season at home, and when you hit just .233 at home as a club, you’re going to end up in under-land a bunch.

Team: San Diego Padres.
Stadium: Petco Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.69.
Home Over-Under Record: 41-37-3.

This one should be easy to figure out. The Padres lost Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox before last season, no batter had more than 25 RBIs at home last year, and in 81 games at Petco, the Padres compiled a .237 team batting average.

But again, beware of the books. Over the long haul of a season, nothing’s going to get by them. Lines were adjusted, and overs were hit simply because the totals were so low. You can always use that to your advantage, too. Jump on the over, grab that value, and see where it takes you. Your call.

On either side, though -- over or under, your preference -- you can rely on the consistency of Petco. There are very few shootouts in San Diego, and there are also a lot of afternoon, weekday games on Wednesdays and Thursdays, so teams can get to their next destination in time. They are known as getaway days, and they often feature less potent lineups because the stars tend to get a little rest before another series begins. Keep an eye out for those.

Team: San Francisco Giants.
Stadium: AT&T Park.
Average Runs Per Home Game: 6.01.
Home Over-Under Record: 30-48-3.

OK, here’s the bookmaker’s nightmare. There’s only so low they can go on a total from one night to the next. And when you have a loaded pitching staff, and you play out West where opponents get tired, that’s going to lead to some unders.

That’s what happened with the Giants here. Averaging 6.01 runs per game in AT&T, the books simply could not overcompensate. You’re not going to see many 5.5 over-under run lines in baseball these days. The typical AT&T line is seven or so, and with four pitchers in double-digit wins, including Tim Lincecum, and a home team ERA of 3.20, there’s not much you can do but think under.

It also helps that Pablo Sandoval lead the team in home RBIs with just 29, and the team combined to hit just .242 at home. And that doesn’t figure to change this season, so continue to monitor the Giants as perhaps the best home under buy in baseball.

[absolutkaos]

Current seasonal from bet365....lots of movement from just two weeks ago....

Arizona Diamondbacks 86.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5 (-125 O)
Baltimore Orioles 69.5 (-130 U)
Boston Red Sox 90 (-120 U)
Chicago Cubs 74.5
Chicago White Sox 74.5
Cincinnati Reds 87.5
Cleveland Indians 78.5 (-125 U)
Colorado Rockies 81.5 (-125 U)
Detroit Tigers 92.5 (-120 U)
Houston Astros 63.5
Kansas City Royals 80 (-130 U)
Los Angeles Angels 92.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 82
Miami Marlins 84.5 (-140 O)
Milwaukee Brewers 84.5 (-140 O)
Minnesota Twins 73.5
New York Mets 72.5 (-120 U)
New York Yankees 93
Oakland Athletics 72
Philadelphia Phillies 93.5 (-130 U)
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120 U)
San Diego Padres 73.5 (-135 U)
San Francisco Giants 88
Seattle Mariners 72
St. Louis Cardinals 85
Tampa Bay Rays 86.5 (-120 U)
Texas Rangers 91 (-150 O)
Toronto Blue Jays 82 (-135 O)
Washington Nationals 84 (-120 O)

[Highness]

Putting a pretty large bet on the Tigers to win the division at -400. The Tigers have about as little pitching risk as you can have with their main pitchers all being relatively young and injury free and the offense also has a minimum of injury or aging risk.

Pinnacle's prop market is very inefficient(anyone of us could move the line 8 cents with a max bet, which is either 500 or 1000 I can't remember) but it is showing quite the arb if you believe the Phillies are actually around -200 to win their division. Phillies are showing a true line of only a 5.5 win advantage over the Braves, a 7 win advantage over the Marlins, and about 9 wins over the Nationals. Detroit is showing 11.5 wins over the Indians, 15 wins over the White Sox, and 14 wins over the Royals. There is also a huge divergence in the expected variance between the Tigers and Phillies' competition. The Braves and Marlins have a much higher ceiling and potential to overperform as opposed to the Indians, Sox, or Royals

[Highness]

Haven't looked into it enough to bet yet but I like the A's under 72 -120, Giants over 87.5 +105, Padres under 74 -147, Brewers over 85 -119, Cardinals over 86.5 +144, White Sox over 76.5 +122

[Madison]

I just started betting baseball last year with reduced units and survived to actually make a few bucks. So given that please forgive any ignorance as I intend to be a little more aggressive this year. I did use this site http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl a bit last year. Not real sure how accurate it is (not up yet) but it shows wind speed and direction as well as tempurature in a real easy display to use.

GL and I'll look forward to the eduucation.

And oh yeah don't forget Worley in Phi. He flew under the radar for a bit last year so the value will likely be less but I rode him for some nice profit.

Also in Bos and have caught a few innings of Bucholz who looks real sharp and fresh.

[Redscot]

Haven't looked into it enough to bet yet but I like the A's under 72 -120, Giants over 87.5 +105, Padres under 74 -147, Brewers over 85 -119, Cardinals over 86.5 +144, White Sox over 76.5 +122

On my first glance the Brew Crew, and the Cards both jumped at me, in accordance with your lean. Also feel that the Whitesox's rotation is solid/mediocre enough to set them up to be a "bit" of a surprise in the division. Quentin down again, he was integral in the Pad's lineup getting some respect......A's are just too wild card for me to predict at this stage, but hard to fault you there.....Giants.....kinda liking the Dodgers to be a bit better than expected....88 wins is sharp, that division will be a dog fight imo. Gimme Baltimore under, they are HOPELESS, and due to tune out the taskmaster Showalter this year (first manager fired prop). Will the AL east have 4 teams over 81 wins?.......something has to give there. 4 teams over 84 in the NL East...hmmmmm........

[DoctorD]

BOL...nice work