LTA's MLB Plays

[bmur714]

Nice...You and Dex both on this one makes it all the better!


Thank you LTA for your wealth of knowledge and discipline. With the grind of the NBA this season and now that MLB is getting started I'm sure it's taking time away from your family/sleep/non-sbr time but just know that all of us appreciate your hard work and in-depth write-ups day in and day out.


I can't say thank you enough and I hope I can take what I learned from your threads and be a successful sports investor capping on my own in the future

[apurvaas]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012

Play #1

Yankees/Devil Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Thanks bud.. BOL

[Trivial]

LTA. Just wanted to wish you a very haapy Easter and the best of luck in another MLB season. I haven't been around much for various reasons mainly starting a new job and working far too much, but thought I would pop in and say hi.

[Redscot]

Nice start to the season bro, Perez was a bummer no doubt (but we have overcome worse, that's for sure ). Like going back to the C.C./Shields well, Shields has been in a great groove this spring too. Will be keeping an eye on him this year as I think he is a slight regression candidate with a .258 babip and 80% strand rate last year, and I think teams will have a new "Book" on him this year as last year he threw his fastball like 10% less and threw is curve over 20% of the time. Still, he is a top tier pitcher.

The Texas total kinda jumps out at me, guess might be the jetstream........?

S.F. and the Dodgers at + money intrigue me too.....

Also think 7 is low in Anaheim......

Looking forward to your thoughts on todays card LTA, will be stalking the umps and will chimein when I see any assignments posted.

[Love The Action]

LTA. Just wanted to wish you a very haapy Easter and the best of luck in another MLB season. I haven't been around much for various reasons mainly starting a new job and working far too much, but thought I would pop in and say hi.

What's up buddy

[Love The Action]

Nice start to the season bro, Perez was a bummer no doubt (but we have overcome worse, that's for sure ). Like going back to the C.C./Shields well, Shields has been in a great groove this spring too. Will be keeping an eye on him this year as I think he is a slight regression candidate with a .258 babip and 80% strand rate last year, and I think teams will have a new "Book" on him this year as last year he threw his fastball like 10% less and threw is curve over 20% of the time. Still, he is a top tier pitcher.

The Texas total kinda jumps out at me, guess might be the jetstream........?

S.F. and the Dodgers at + money intrigue me too.....

Also think 7 is low in Anaheim......

Looking forward to your thoughts on todays card LTA, will be stalking the umps and will chimein when I see any assignments posted.

Yeah, jet stream setting up in Texas. I probably won't play too many overs at the start of the season because I generally take the approach that pitching dominates early until the weather and the bats warm up a bit. Pitchers are usually ahead of hitters to start the year, but each game is different. However, I'm never a fan of taking the over on 9.5 total....maybe that will drop to 9 though as the under is getting juiced right now.

Actually, I sort of like Danks to outpitch Lewis, I'm just not sure the Sox bats can hold up their end of the bargain and Texas is deadly against lefties.

As far as SF, I agree. It took a lot of discipline not to lock Timmy Tim Tim in at +109 last night. However, I sort of think the books are looking for SF money in this spot. I think I'm going to hold off on that one.

I like the pitching matchup in the LA/SD game and that will probably be a play for me on the total.

Agree with you on the Angels/KC over, but I can't fade Weaver this early. I want to see what he brings and if the transition will be tougher on Pujols than people realize. Could we have the "Adam Dunn" effect from switching leagues? If so, and Pujols struggles early, I think the Angels could remain an under machine like last year. I also like Chen for all of his faults. Gun to my head, I would rather back the upstart Royals than the over in that game. The Royals are my sleeper team this year. I am going to back them early this season before all the value is gone. I think they have an improved season.

I'm probably also going to back Wandy R. pitching at home. I love his career H/A splits and April pitching numbers. +115 is solid value with a Wandy v. Guthrie matchup.

Good luck today bud! Thanks for posting those ump assignments.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +0.65x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

2 - 1 = +0.65x

Chris Perez ruined what could have been a perfect opening day, but it was a profitable one nonetheless as we commence the 8 month grind in the green. Good luck on Friday.

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/5/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +0.70x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

2 - 1 = +0.70x


I am amending yesterday's record to reflect the +105 price that I played on the Cubs under. That was not reflected in my original tally from last night. This is the correct record going into Friday. Good luck.

[Redscot]

I think Danks shows up here today too, I was looking at the Texas total as too high...leaning under. I like Danks to keep them in the game here and the Sox lineup is hardly murderer's row.

Wandy is one of the most under appreciated pitchers in the game imo, LHP pitching at home with that short porch in left. Guthrie always gets hit, this spring he had more walks than K's in spring training......

I don't necessarily see it as a Weaver fade, agree with you about the Royals and their lineup especially, think they will put up runs this season. Was upset our boy Paulino had some arm issues this spring. Please don't mention Dunn and Pujols in the same sentence again bro , Pujols could hit on the moon. Angels lineup with Kendrys back in the mix and I think Wells rebounds a bit this year, Chen will be facing every batter from the right side of the plate....ouchy.

Luebke may be the best pitcher nobody knows, Billingsley can be a bit of a wildcard with his control..still, wouldn't think he will be nibbling with the lineup SD throws out there.



P.S.
4. Jeff Keppinger (R) DH
5. Sean Rodriguez (R) SS
6. Elliot Johnson (S) 2B

Middle of the lineup for Tampa today, lol, that is encouraging for the under.

Also we didn't discuss Garcia and Gallardo, two studs, St. Louis also getting +$

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012

Play #1

Yankees/Devil Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

One of my favorite pitching matchups that brought us well over 4x in profit last season. Although these teams are familiar with both pitchers, they also have a very difficult time scoring runs when they pitch against each other. The game is being played in one of the best under parks in baseball and TB loves to play "small ball" which can lead to less big innings. Although we have really solid hitters on both teams, it's still early and good pitching generally has the advantage in April. Based on last year's stats together with spring training numbers, I would expect that this one close at (7)(-115 or -120). Therefore, I'm locking this one in now as I suspect it will drop by tomorrow morning and rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(+105) 0.75x (Locked)

I'm a fan of Luebke and I think Billingsley finally puts it together for a break-through year this season. Neither offense is very explosive and after yesterday's game went way over, I think today is a solid spot for the under. Meals is behind the plate and his lifetime strike rate above 62.5% should help. I could have played under 6.5 for -125, but I am trying to stay away from playing 6.5 unders with big juice, at least early in the year. I will be looking for more + odds on a total of 6 and risk the push rather than playing a juiced up 6.5 to avoid getting killed by the juice on a final score of 7. This strategy will change later in the season, but for now I think it's the better way to go. I am rolling with the under for 0.75x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Meals should have the plate in S.D.....BTW Billinglsey has a 2.62 era over 75 career innings in Petco.

[PistolPete13]

Play #2

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(+105) 0.75x (Locked)

I'm a fan of Luebke and I think Billingsley finally puts it together for a break-through year this season. Neither offense is very explosive and after yesterday's game went way over, I think today is a solid spot for the under. Meals is behind the plate and his lifetime strike rate above 62.5% should help. I could have played under 6.5 for -125, but I am trying to stay away from playing 6.5 unders with big juice, at least early in the year. I will be looking for more + odds on a total of 6 and risk the push rather than playing a juiced up 6.5 to avoid getting killed by the juice on a final score of 7. This strategy will change later in the season, but for now I think it's the better way to go. I am rolling with the under for 0.75x. Good luck.

Real quick, are your units to win or risk?
thanks.

[remypom]

Real quick, are your units to win or risk?
thanks.

Units are to win.

[Love The Action]

I think Danks shows up here today too, I was looking at the Texas total as too high...leaning under. I like Danks to keep them in the game here and the Sox lineup is hardly murderer's row.

Wandy is one of the most under appreciated pitchers in the game imo, LHP pitching at home with that short porch in left. Guthrie always gets hit, this spring he had more walks than K's in spring training......

I don't necessarily see it as a Weaver fade, agree with you about the Royals and their lineup especially, think they will put up runs this season. Was upset our boy Paulino had some arm issues this spring. Please don't mention Dunn and Pujols in the same sentence again bro , Pujols could hit on the moon. Angels lineup with Kendrys back in the mix and I think Wells rebounds a bit this year, Chen will be facing every batter from the right side of the plate....ouchy.

Luebke may be the best pitcher nobody knows, Billingsley can be a bit of a wildcard with his control..still, wouldn't think he will be nibbling with the lineup SD throws out there.



P.S.
4. Jeff Keppinger (R) DH
5. Sean Rodriguez (R) SS
6. Elliot Johnson (S) 2B

Middle of the lineup for Tampa today, lol, that is encouraging for the under.

Also we didn't discuss Garcia and Gallardo, two studs, St. Louis also getting +$

Hahaha, I'm just saying their might be an adjustment period for Pujols switching leagues. If you look at Dunn last season, no one would have predicted his slide downwards. He had dominated every year of his career in the NL and then he just couldn't adjust. I'm not saying Pujols will struggle anywhere near what happened to Dunn last season, I'm just saying there might be an early adjustment period before he heats up.

I like the under in Milwaukee, especially considering Fielder is gone and Braun is off HGH. I think we should also have some fun with the shadows through the glass windows of the dome if it's closed, which I am sure it will be. I just can't decide if I want to pay -125 for 7.5 or take it at plus odds at 7. Unlike the totals in the 6.5/6 range, where I prefer to take a plus money 6 over a juiced up 6.5 early in the season, I generally always prefer a juiced up 7.5 over a plus money 7 because of the importance of that number. 7 is probably the most important key number in baseball, especially early in the year when scoring is down. Do you know the ump for this game yet?

[mikea33]

Hey LTA quick question.
I never be on baseball prior to this season. I followed it laatyear and know there was more pitcher duela than homeruns, (commonly inferred as no more steroid era) does that reflect lower lines than in years past?

[Ryan138]

Any thoughts on the under in the SF game? I was looking at playing SF, but as you said up here I think books are begging us too.

[Trivial]

What's up buddy

Not too much my friend. Staying healthy, but ending up working 18 hours a day. I wake up with the family, drop the kid in day care, spend 2 hours with the family at night, and going back to work. I haven't had time for NBA learning or even tailing your picks.

Luckily, it is a long weekend here in Canada this weekend, and my boss told me to stay off work for the whole weekend or he'll kill me. So here I am tailing my first two picks of MLB.

I hope you and your loved ones are doing well.

[Redscot]

Good to see you around TRiv .

Looks like Winters in Texas.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012

Play #1

Yankees/Devil Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

One of my favorite pitching matchups that brought us well over 4x in profit last season. Although these teams are familiar with both pitchers, they also have a very difficult time scoring runs when they pitch against each other. The game is being played in one of the best under parks in baseball and TB loves to play "small ball" which can lead to less big innings. Although we have really solid hitters on both teams, it's still early and good pitching generally has the advantage in April. Based on last year's stats together with spring training numbers, I would expect that this one close at (7)(-115 or -120). Therefore, I'm locking this one in now as I suspect it will drop by tomorrow morning and rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(+105) 0.75x (Locked)

I'm a fan of Luebke and I think Billingsley finally puts it together for a break-through year this season. Neither offense is very explosive and after yesterday's game went way over, I think today is a solid spot for the under. Meals is behind the plate and his lifetime strike rate above 62.5% should help. I could have played under 6.5 for -125, but I am trying to stay away from playing 6.5 unders with big juice, at least early in the year. I will be looking for more + odds on a total of 6 and risk the push rather than playing a juiced up 6.5 to avoid getting killed by the juice on a final score of 7. This strategy will change later in the season, but for now I think it's the better way to go. I am rolling with the under for 0.75x. Good luck.

Play #3

Astros ML (+115) 1x (Locked)

Just able to post this now, but there is still value out there at +110. Wandy is the better pitcher, especially at home, so im going to play on the youngsters. I would price houston at +100 so we are getting good value and I am rolling with thr astros for 1x. Good luck.

[bonestock]

Good call my local already has HOU at +100

[Trivial]

Good to see you around TRiv .

Looks like Winters in Texas.

Thanks Red. Good to be around. Will check back every so often today but for now we are driving 2 hours to spend some time with the in laws on the long weekend. I always loved you, Dex and LTA last year in MLB. BOL this season.

You still in DR?

[Redscot]

Thanks Red. Good to be around. Will check back every so often today but for now we are driving 2 hours to spend some time with the in laws on the long weekend. I always loved you, Dex and LTA last year in MLB. BOL this season.

You still in DR?

Still in the DR bro.

Looks like Joe West in Tampa today

[pokerwhiz90]

this looks good thanks lta

[Trivial]

Still in the DR bro.

Looks like Joe West in Tampa today

Coolio. Only ever been to Plata. One day need to get to Cana and other lovely areas.

[Redscot]

Hernandez in Milwaukee...

Tschida in Balty, he can be a bit stingy with the strike zone.

Reynolds in Zona/ now hearing Joyce from another source...

[mikea33]

Wow yanks not looking good

[riffraff24]

10 runs and still in the 3rd. oof

[bmurphy003]

Even the announcer didn't think this one was going over 6 runs haha both pitchers are missing their spots... guess you can't win em all but we can win 2 out of 3!

[XGamer]

Wow, Yankee and ray are both firing up offensively!

[bmurphy003]

Geez this is like the dam home run derby

[alamo]

Really liking the late plays to get a winning day. Good luck LTA.

[Madison]

Qualitative or.situational analysis has almost no relevancy in baseball. Baseball is primarily stat driven imho. Dont waste your time or money on situational factors in mlb. GL

Mostly agree but there are some i.e. Mia off emotional late night travels to Cinn to face a rested squad and Cueto at 4pm.

[brucethebear]

Can still get Houston at +116 at sporting bet Australia. Love the value.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012

Play #1

Yankees/Devil Rays under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

One of my favorite pitching matchups that brought us well over 4x in profit last season. Although these teams are familiar with both pitchers, they also have a very difficult time scoring runs when they pitch against each other. The game is being played in one of the best under parks in baseball and TB loves to play "small ball" which can lead to less big innings. Although we have really solid hitters on both teams, it's still early and good pitching generally has the advantage in April. Based on last year's stats together with spring training numbers, I would expect that this one close at (7)(-115 or -120). Therefore, I'm locking this one in now as I suspect it will drop by tomorrow morning and rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dodgers/Padres under (6)(+105) 0.75x and under (6)(-105) 0.25x (Locked)

I'm a fan of Luebke and I think Billingsley finally puts it together for a break-through year this season. Neither offense is very explosive and after yesterday's game went way over, I think today is a solid spot for the under. Meals is behind the plate and his lifetime strike rate above 62.5% should help. I could have played under 6.5 for -125, but I am trying to stay away from playing 6.5 unders with big juice, at least early in the year. I will be looking for more + odds on a total of 6 and risk the push rather than playing a juiced up 6.5 to avoid getting killed by the juice on a final score of 7. This strategy will change later in the season, but for now I think it's the better way to go. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.


Play #3

Astros ML (+115) 1x (Locked)

Just able to post this now, but there is still value out there at +110. Wandy is the better pitcher, especially at home, so im going to play on the youngsters. I would price houston at +100 so we are getting good value and I am rolling with thr astros for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.25x to Play #2 for total of 1x. Correct units and prices denoted above.

I got a great price earlier this morning and it dropped considerably since that time despite 70% on the over. Therefore, I'm going to play this aggressive and bump it up to a full 1x play. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Added 0.25x to Play #2 for total of 1x. Correct units and prices denoted above.

I got a great price earlier this morning and it dropped considerably since that time despite 70% on the over. Therefore, I'm going to play this aggressive and bump it up to a full 1x play. Good luck.

Where are you seeing 70% on the over?

[Love The Action]

Where are you seeing 70% on the over?

Sports Insights had 70% for most of the day and just switched to 66% in the last hour.

I believe the free sights are around 63-65%.