LTA's MLB Plays

[No coincidences]

I think the WSox are getting a great price here, Ogando/Adams/Nathan have all pitched the last 2 days.

Couldn't agree more Red. Might be the best play on the board today -- at least in theory.

[KennyM10]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/7/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +1.39x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

4 - 4 = +0.55x

I will be retiring from SBR soon, but not quite yet. I want to make you some more money first. Good luck and Happy Easter.

Get over yourself Spartacus, lousy day RETIRE!

[Love The Action]

Get over yourself Spartacus, lousy day RETIRE!

[mikea33]

LTA get em tomorow!!! Hope u had a good easter

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Braves ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I like Minor's attitude this spring as he delivered an ultimatum to the Braves of either start him or trade him. He backed that tough talk up by having a great spring after ending last season on a tear. I made money off him at the end of last season and I'm going to back him in this spot with the Braves needing to avoid the sweep. Over 81 innings last season, Minor delivered with a SIERA, xFIP, FIP all under 3.7 and a K% over 21%. I think he continues that success today while I expect Niese to struggle. With the Braves lineup success against Niese over 111 at bats hitting .315 with an OPS over .820, I think they know what Niese brings to the table and should be able to stack some runs. Likewise, I think Minor is primed for a big season beginning tonight. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Braves for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Astros under (8) 1x (Locked)

Nicasio v. Norris in a game that I expect low scoring, ground balls and strike outs. I have this game set at 6.7 and it would take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets that high. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants/Diamondbacks under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers have pitched well against these lineups in the past and I think Collmenter and Cain are also primed for good years. Cain has his money so it will interesting to see if he takes the next step, but his numbers continue to shine from advanced stat perspective. I think Collmenter is a guy you don't hear a lot about but is a guy you should know and I like him to pitch well today. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

White Sox/Rangers under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Floyd has actually fared well against this lineup. It's no surprise that they are resting Napoli since Torrealba has been one of the few Rangers to hit Floyd well. Nevertheless, the wind tunnel will not be in effect tonight with the wind blowing in from left field and Harrison has also pitched well against his opposing lineup. Even though the ump is not the best under guy, he has a lifetime strike rate around 62% (although I prefer 63% for an under) and lifetime record of just a few more overs than unders so he's not the worst assignment. You don't hear a ton about Floyd and Harrison but both are lifetime 4 ish WAR guys who have improved their SIERA year after year. Plus, whenever the pitching matchup affords itself, we always like riding the ESPN Sunday night game under trend. Without the wind, I would put this total around 7.95 giving us just a hair more than one run of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[mikea33]

thanks lta. we need this one

[cnote24]

Hey man Ive been a long time follower of your NBA Post, and see this baseball thread of your's! please dont stop, This is by far my best sport betting wise, not saying every one of my bets is right but compared to the other 5 major sports I bet this is my best, Was totally on the Braves today along with the yanks so its been a rough opening weekend, but some matchups in week 2 that look really favorable, was wondering if I could post on here with you but will totally understand if you wanna keep it just you... I basically want someone who I can talk to here and there each week and pick there brain on what they thought... Tomorrow, some early games to watch, I think possibly Miami going big against Philly, and the Yanks to finally break out for a big win against the O's

[absolutkaos]

hey Red....looks like we were spot on about that Indians lean today.... I think the Jays rotation can be serviceable, but they are still young....hoping that if/when LTA leaves us you'll be sticking around in this thread this year...

[mikea33]

Hey man Ive been a long time follower of your NBA Post, and see this baseball thread of your's! please dont stop, This is by far my best sport betting wise, not saying every one of my bets is right but compared to the other 5 major sports I bet this is my best, Was totally on the Braves today along with the yanks so its been a rough opening weekend, but some matchups in week 2 that look really favorable, was wondering if I could post on here with you but will totally understand if you wanna keep it just you... I basically want someone who I can talk to here and there each week and pick there brain on what they thought... Tomorrow, some early games to watch, I think possibly Miami going big against Philly, and the Yanks to finally break out for a big win against the O's

I think this thread is meant to be just LTAs plays tracked and discussing stuff and what not. Feel free to start your own thread, myself and many others will be sure to follow it!

[SlickRick1382]

Play #4

White Sox/Rangers under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Floyd has actually fared well against this lineup. It's no surprise that they are resting Napoli since Torrealba has been one of the few Rangers to hit Floyd well. Nevertheless, the wind tunnel will not be in effect tonight with the wind blowing in from left field and Harrison has also pitched well against his opposing lineup. Even though the ump is not the best under guy, he has a lifetime strike rate around 62% (although I prefer 63% for an under) and lifetime record of just a few more overs than unders so he's not the worst assignment. You don't hear a ton about Floyd and Harrison but both are lifetime 4 ish WAR guys who have improved their SIERA year after year. Plus, whenever the pitching matchup affords itself, we always like riding the ESPN Sunday night game under trend. Without the wind, I would put this total around 7.95 giving us just a hair more than one run of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Tailed Dex on the over. Wish I would of seen this and I could of bought out and ate the juice ...

Good luck LTA. Hope you get it ...

[yankeekansan]

Guys... I just played Texas tomorrow night -1/2 for +100.... the money line was already -200

Am I missing something? Caught this on 5dimes and not sure if it will be consistent across your board... either way, thought that I would share. Have a good Monday and an even better week!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/8/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.2x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

6 - 6 = +0.35x

Should of bought out of that SF/AZ under as soon as I heard the roof was open. Onto tomorrow. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/9/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Phillies under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

A great pitching matchup with Sanches versus Hamels. I expect another step forward for Sanchez this season as he continues to throw that changeup more. There is no doubting the emergence of that changeup -- going from throwing it 12% to 17% -- also coincided with a higher K/9, K% and GB/FB score, all of which lead to a sterling 3.29 SIERA and 3.8 WAR. I would not be surprised to see him post similar or better numbers again this season as his BABIP comes down from .310. On the other side, Cole Hamels will be looking to start his year off with a win and I expect him to be focused. I have Hamels as one of the elite pitchers in the NL so there's not reason to go over all of his numbers. I think he pitches well on Monday as the wind is projected to blow across the field toward the first base line. I have this game set 5.9 giving us over a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1. Good luck.

[bmur714]

Guys... I just played Texas tomorrow night -1/2 for +100.... the money line was already -200

Am I missing something? Caught this on 5dimes and not sure if it will be consistent across your board... either way, thought that I would share. Have a good Monday and an even better week!

My local has -1.5 +100...probably a mistake by 5d

[ronnieseah]

not that she feel this way, come on, you got to show her who wear the pant in the house.

Damn....it must suck to be your wife.

[Love The Action]

not that she feel this way, come on, you got to show her who wear the pant

Or so you think....

Dude, my wife lets me do what I want because she trusts me.....i dont need to be a dbag. She has nothing to do with all this. Im just bored with sbr and want to spend more time with my boy as he grows older. Jeez, I was nevet planning on posting forever lol

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/9/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Phillies under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

A great pitching matchup with Sanches versus Hamels. I expect another step forward for Sanchez this season as he continues to throw that changeup more. There is no doubting the emergence of that changeup -- going from throwing it 12% to 17% -- also coincided with a higher K/9, K% and GB/FB score, all of which lead to a sterling 3.29 SIERA and 3.8 WAR. I would not be surprised to see him post similar or better numbers again this season as his BABIP comes down from .310. On the other side, Cole Hamels will be looking to start his year off with a win and I expect him to be focused. I have Hamels as one of the elite pitchers in the NL so there's not reason to go over all of his numbers. I think he pitches well on Monday as the wind is projected to blow across the field toward the first base line. I have this game set 5.9 giving us over a full run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

Jackson is the much better pitcher at a good price. I expect the natties to close at -110 or more and im rolling with washington for 1x. Good luck.

[Vasco]

Thanks for the play. I'm sure you mentioned it before but I couldn't find it.....do you generally play action or listed pitchers when you play sides? I prefer to go with listed pitchers but I'm curious if you do the same.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Nationals ML (-102) 1x (Locked)

Jackson is the much better pitcher at a good price. I expect the natties to close at -110 or more and im rolling with washington for 1x. Good luck.

Nice call on the WSox under last night .

Nice observation on Sanchez's change-up, it has helped him particularly against Left handed batters. He should be able to be aggressive against this light hitting Phillie's lineup. Hamels is only a touch behind the heralded Halladay and Lee. Nuff said.

I agree that Jackson is superior to the Big doofus, who isn't . I still see Jackson as more a less a league average starter, and Pelf is considerably worse, definite advantage Nats. That being said I think the total is intriguing here. Both teams will be without there closer's (Francisco 3 straight games), Storen out. Wind seems like it will be considerable out to RF tonight and don't discount the "psyche out" factor that had Mets hitters altering their approach before they moved in the Walls this off season. I am no homer, but Murphy/Wright/Davis/Duda (Bay?) can do a little damage.

Any thoughts on S.F./Col total, looks a bit high, also like the under in Texas at first glance. Interested in Cubby total too, I think Volstad may be undervalued a bit.

Thoughts on Miami and S.F sides? They seem to have some value at first glance as well.

[Madison]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/8/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.2x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

6 - 6 = +0.35x

Should of bought out of that SF/AZ under as soon as I heard the roof was open. Onto tomorrow. Good luck.

That was my first fear. That's a tough unknown. Like umpires we need a roof open/closed link.

[NotJoshRay]

Nice call on the WSox under last night .

Nice observation on Sanchez's change-up, it has helped him particularly against Left handed batters. He should be able to be aggressive against this light hitting Phillie's lineup. Hamels is only a touch behind the heralded Halladay and Lee. Nuff said.

I agree that Jackson is superior to the Big doofus, who isn't . I still see Jackson as more a less a league average starter, and Pelf is considerably worse, definite advantage Nats. That being said I think the total is intriguing here. Both teams will be without there closer's (Francisco 3 straight games), Storen out. Wind seems like it will be considerable out to RF tonight and don't discount the "psyche out" factor that had Mets hitters altering their approach before they moved in the Walls this off season. I am no homer, but Murphy/Wright/Davis/Duda (Bay?) can do a little damage.

Any thoughts on S.F./Col total, looks a bit high, also like the under in Texas at first glance. Interested in Cubby total too, I think Volstad may be undervalued a bit.

Thoughts on Miami and S.F sides? They seem to have some value at first glance as well.

Volstad. haha. how is there ever value with volstad. The S.F. one in years past was easier to call because they didn't have a strong offense. But Melky, Posey, Sandoval gives them more than they've previously had. Especially if Belt can ever hit in the majors. And we all know what COL can do any given game. With how sketchy Chacin looked last year late and what we know about Zito I can see why they set it so high for a SF game of all teams. Just speaking from watching Hamels pitch vs my team, he handles the marlins pretty well. The Marlins have never been much of a change-up hitting type team. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'd be shocked if he didn't have a nice history vs the fish.

I think the Orioles are a sneaky play today. Matusz is hard to bet on, but he has pitched amazingly well in the Spring and looks finally healthy as his velocity has returned to his 2010 form when he was the next big thing. Young Orioles pitching has seemed to always fare very well early in the year and then tank the 3rd time around. Markakis hitting, and that lineup has some offense in it vs the struggling Yankees and Nova who has been thrust back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and struggled this spring after being a hot name to finish last season.

That Mets total and the LTA pick Phi/Mia under sound very intriguing.

[Redscot]

Volstad. haha. how is there ever value with volstad. The S.F. one in years past was easier to call because they didn't have a strong offense. But Melky, Posey, Sandoval gives them more than they've previously had. Especially if Belt can ever hit in the majors. And we all know what COL can do any given game. With how sketchy Chacin looked last year late and what we know about Zito I can see why they set it so high for a SF game of all teams. Just speaking from watching Hamels pitch vs my team, he handles the marlins pretty well. The Marlins have never been much of a change-up hitting type team. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I'd be shocked if he didn't have a nice history vs the fish.

I think the Orioles are a sneaky play today. Matusz is hard to bet on, but he has pitched amazingly well in the Spring and looks finally healthy as his velocity has returned to his 2010 form when he was the next big thing. Young Orioles pitching has seemed to always fare very well early in the year and then tank the 3rd time around. Markakis hitting, and that lineup has some offense in it vs the struggling Yankees and Nova who has been thrust back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen and struggled this spring after being a hot name to finish last season.

That Mets total and the LTA pick Phi/Mia under sound very intriguing.

. I hear you. Still if that game was in the 9's, I would think hard about it. I actually think Volstad pitches to a low 4's era this season . you make good points about S.F. too, Colorado day game as well. Still, I think the public sees Zito and overcompensates due to the horrible salary and the extra negative publicity he receives regarding it. Last year he had some health issues, but the 2 previous years he was serviceable. The Colorado lineup is not murderers row if it gets to 10 I will probably play it.

[Redscot]

Guccione in Philly and an unconfirmed Marques in Minny. (as always i get these from cappingthegame.com)

Carrapazza in Cleveland.

Bellino (U) in Cincy, high strike %

Come to think of it, to those interested this is the thread to hit up:

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?136931-Stalking-the-Monday-umps

***As I get this info will just add it to this post rather than clutter up the thread for each one, I'll put a (u) if it is uncomfirmed, although these guys have proven very reliable.

[Redscot]

That was my first fear. That's a tough unknown. Like umpires we need a roof open/closed link.

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

[Redscot]

No Stanton for Miami and no Posey for S.F.

[NotJoshRay]

. I hear you. Still if that game was in the 9's, I would think hard about it. I actually think Volstad pitches to a low 4's era this season . you make good points about S.F. too, Colorado day game as well. Still, I think the public sees Zito and overcompensates due to the horrible salary and the extra negative publicity he receives regarding it. Last year he had some health issues, but the 2 previous years he was serviceable. The Colorado lineup is not murderers row if it gets to 10 I will probably play it.

Probably a low 3 era if you follow the idea that once we let him go he will miraculously flourish somewhere else other than the team you're a fan of.

I think at 10 it has alot of value, so I might tail that scenario. That's asking alot of two teams with serious lineup holes.

I'm starting to look at the white sox as a play with Sale against Tomlin. I know its a small sample size but Sale held them to a .154 avg in relief appearances last year. 39 AB's.

[Redscot]

Probably a low 3 era if you follow the idea that once we let him go he will miraculously flourish somewhere else other than the team you're a fan of.

I think at 10 it has alot of value, so I might tail that scenario. That's asking alot of two teams with serious lineup holes.

I'm starting to look at the white sox as a play with Sale against Tomlin. I know its a small sample size but Sale held them to a .154 avg in relief appearances last year. 39 AB's.

I think that is an intriguing play too, Cleveland's lineup vs. Lefties is very suspect. *edit* Looks like Hafner and Brantley sitting. Wonder if Wsox bat's will be a little lethargic after Sunday night game in Texas and travel...prolly not, so early in the season..but who knows.

[Madison]

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

You are truly amazing. Thx Red.

[boycali01]

[Redscot]

Looks like Cousins in Denver (unofficial)

[pokerwhiz90]

dang there goes play 1

[brucethebear]

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

Hey red,
cheers for all the links. I flicked you some points, moreso for pointing me to fangraphs. I can't tell you how much I have learnt in the last few days.

[Love The Action]

Wtf.....useless home run in the 9th inning to push the first play over......talk about bad breaks to start the season....first we lose the first play of the season to a 3 run home in the 9th and now this. Ugh....

[Redscot]

Hey red,
cheers for all the links. I flicked you some points, moreso for pointing me to fangraphs. I can't tell you how much I have learnt in the last few days.

Thanks Bruce, appreciate that. Fangraphs is simply the shiznit. On the pitching side I am particular to Siera and Xfip. There is a lot to be done on the offensive side too (Woba, Wrc+) as the season goes on, how teams fare vs. LHP, RHP, last 30 days etc etc. Also the Bullpens once we are at least a 1/3rd of the way into the season, I like to see how they have been faring over last 14 days etc. The next fronteir for these advanced stats is honing up the defensive metrics, I think we will see advances in that in the coming year or two. BOL

[absolutkaos]

i'm leaning on the Jays to beat Boston tonight. Toronto hasnt played many games in front of a sell-out crowd in the SkyDome (not calling it Rogers Center, terrible name) on Opening Night in a long time. the whole city has been talking Jays for some time, and are coming out in full force tonight.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/04/09/toronto-blue-jays-soldout-home-opener.html?cmp=rss

Not to mention with a good 2-1 start on the road in Cleveland, and the BoSox struggling, i'm thinking the Jays ML is a good play tonight.