LTA's MLB Plays

[Redscot]

great minds think alike, Redscot.

also, guys, please do not argue in LTA's thread. we all know that he does not appreciate it. BOL to all today and hope that you and yours have a nice holiday weekend (whatever holidays you might celebrate).

To which my dad would always reply:
"Fools seldom differ"

Best of luck today Biff Tee, 'bout to head your way and see what you are on.

[ifiwaspresident]

You only engage in discussion for one legitimate reason, that is you feel both you and the other side will listen to each other with open minds and truly consider the merits of the opposing viewpoint, specifically with a common goal of arriving at a mutually beneficial opinion on the issue.

Anything else is arguing. People argue because they are egotistical and like to hear themselves talk, or the want everyone to know how smart they are. The problem is they never realize the incongruity between how they think the rest of the world sees them and how the rest of the world actually sees them.

In layman's terms, you both look like a couple of jackasses. None of us gives a rat's ass about anything you're saying. Now STFU so we can view the thread without sifting through your drivel.

Edit: I won't argue, so don't bother flaming.

[balls2wall]

You only engage in discussion for one legitimate reason, that is you feel both you and the other side will listen to each other with open minds and truly consider the merits of the opposing viewpoint, specifically with a common goal of arriving at a mutually beneficial opinion on the issue.

Anything else is arguing. People argue because they are egotistical and like to hear themselves talk, or the want everyone to know how smart they are. The problem is they never realize the incongruity between how they think the rest of the world sees them and how the rest of the world actually sees them.

In layman's terms, you both look like a couple of jackasses. None of us gives a rat's ass about anything you're saying. Now STFU so we can view the thread without sifting through your drivel.

Edit: I won't argue, so don't bother flaming.

LOL

I don't even know who you are talking about. I just jumped to the last page of the thread. I may go back and look to see what you are talking about. However, it doesn't even matter because what you described could be in about 90% of the threads on this site so I don't even need to read the posts in question.

I just wanted to say your post is the best one I have seen on SBR in a long time and it hit the nail on the head.

Very well said

[SlickRick1382]

Gotta love SBR. Only place where simple comments can lead to people acting holier than thou....

[mikea33]

LTA! Family is first over everything, and should be that way! I know you work a busy job, but SBR is a vital place for my gambling. Im sure you could cap without it, etc. But I love to discuss the games, because well I have no one to discuss them with when I am not on cyberland.
So if your just posting your Plays, im sure no one will dare to ask for your writeups! Whatever you deciede, we appreciate all you do!

[crazed]

I agree with Mike. I don't post much or give much insight on the games but I always check LTAs picks and analysis first when I get on SBR. I completely understand you need to focus on family first but would love for you if nothing else just post your picks so we can look at what you are choosing. While we will definitely miss your write ups, posting your picks would still be a great help. I also enjoy everyone's input on your picks once you post so I think that a lot of that discussion would still go on and be very helpful for us novice and I'm sure you enjoy reading other's posts too. But in the end it is completely your choice and will understand if you need to take a break to focus on the family. Either way thanks for all your insight.

[WVU9494]

shut up tool. Who do you think you are?

You only engage in discussion for one legitimate reason, that is you feel both you and the other side will listen to each other with open minds and truly consider the merits of the opposing viewpoint, specifically with a common goal of arriving at a mutually beneficial opinion on the issue.

Anything else is arguing. People argue because they are egotistical and like to hear themselves talk, or the want everyone to know how smart they are. The problem is they never realize the incongruity between how they think the rest of the world sees them and how the rest of the world actually sees them.

In layman's terms, you both look like a couple of jackasses. None of us gives a rat's ass about anything you're saying. Now STFU so we can view the thread without sifting through your drivel.

Edit: I won't argue, so don't bother flaming.

[SlickRick1382]

Redscot

Nice call on the Mets today

[absolutkaos]

hey Red... you think the Jays have it in them to sweep the tribe at home? I'm leaning CLE in game 3 after two huge extra inning wins by the Jays...but would love someone to convince me I'm wrong...

[Madison]

hey Red... you think the Jays have it in them to sweep the tribe at home? I'm leaning CLE in game 3 after two huge extra inning wins by the Jays...but would love someone to convince me I'm wrong...

Like the over better (#?). Lowe sux and is a losing proposition long term.

[Redscot]

Redscot

Nice call on the Mets today

[Redscot]

hey Red... you think the Jays have it in them to sweep the tribe at home? I'm leaning CLE in game 3 after two huge extra inning wins by the Jays...but would love someone to convince me I'm wrong...

Honestly I think this is a tough one to cap. I don't put too much stock in baseball in a team needing it more. Too many individual match-ups and the only player that can somewhat "impose" his will is the pitcher. Even the pitchers are subject to "luck", and the fielders behind them. On that note Lowe, had a 5 era last year, but was far more respectable than that if you look at his advanced stats. His Siera was 3.75 and his xfip 3.65 (check out Fangraphs if not familiar with these stats). I do have pause with Lowe, he had some ribcage issues in spring, and he is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a poor middle infield defensively behind him.

On the flip side we have Carreno. I believe this will be his first big league start....he came up late last year in relief. I think there is a reason the Jays see him as a reliever long term and it is his lack of a 3rd pitch. I saw him pitch down here in the winter league in the past and he has a pretty nice slider, but can be inconsistent with his fastball location. As a starter you need a full repertoire as the batters often get 3 chances against you in a game. To that end, I wonder how deep he will get in this game, and the bull pen have been taxed a bit, although it's early in the season.

Long winded way of saying I lean Cleveland I suppose, but I don't like betting on or against unknown commodities, Carreno. Gonna have a deeper look at it later, and see the lineups as well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/7/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +1.39x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

4 - 4 = +0.55x

I will be retiring from SBR soon, but not quite yet. I want to make you some more money first. Good luck and Happy Easter.

[Redscot]

Happy Easter LTA .

UMPS:

Det: Iassogna
Cle: Everitt
Nym: Cuzzi
Cin: Runge
Bal: Welke
Tb: Fletcher
Hou: Culbreth
Mil: Hickox
Chi: Eddings
Laa: Wendelstedt
Sd: Barry
Arz: DiMuro
Tex: Wegner
Pit: Randazzo

First look leans, welcome your input bro,and anyone else who would like to chime in.

Phillies over
Astros under
Brewcrew under
Nat's
Cleveland
Yanks/over
Wsox/under

[ronnieseah]

Did you tell the lady where her place is?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Braves ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I like Minor's attitude this spring as he delivered an ultimatum to the Braves of either start him or trade him. He backed that tough talk up by having a great spring after ending last season on a tear. I made money off him at the end of last season and I'm going to back him in this spot with the Braves needing to avoid the sweep. Over 81 innings last season, Minor delivered with a SIERA, xFIP, FIP all under 3.7 and a K% over 21%. I think he continues that success today while I expect Niese to struggle. With the Braves lineup success against Niese over 111 at bats hitting .315 with an OPS over .820, I think they know what Niese brings to the table and should be able to stack some runs. Likewise, I think Minor is primed for a big season beginning tonight. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Braves for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Braves ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I like Minor's attitude this spring as he delivered an ultimatum to the Braves of either start him or trade him. He backed that tough talk up by having a great spring after ending last season on a tear. I made money off him at the end of last season and I'm going to back him in this spot with the Braves needing to avoid the sweep. Over 81 innings last season, Minor delivered with a SIERA, xFIP, FIP all under 3.7 and a K% over 21%. I think he continues that success today while I expect Niese to struggle. With the Braves lineup success against Niese over 111 at bats hitting .315 with an OPS over .820, I think they know what Niese brings to the table and should be able to stack some runs. Likewise, I think Minor is primed for a big season beginning tonight. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Braves for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Astros under (8) 1x (Locked)

Nicasio v. Norris in a game that I expect low scoring, ground balls and strike outs. I have this game set at 6.7 and it would take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets that high. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Braves ML (-105) 1x (Locked)

I like Minor's attitude this spring as he delivered an ultimatum to the Braves of either start him or trade him. He backed that tough talk up by having a great spring after ending last season on a tear. I made money off him at the end of last season and I'm going to back him in this spot with the Braves needing to avoid the sweep. Over 81 innings last season, Minor delivered with a SIERA, xFIP, FIP all under 3.7 and a K% over 21%. I think he continues that success today while I expect Niese to struggle. With the Braves lineup success against Niese over 111 at bats hitting .315 with an OPS over .820, I think they know what Niese brings to the table and should be able to stack some runs. Likewise, I think Minor is primed for a big season beginning tonight. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Braves for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies/Astros under (8) 1x (Locked)

Nicasio v. Norris in a game that I expect low scoring, ground balls and strike outs. I have this game set at 6.7 and it would take a final score of 9 to beat us and I don't think it gets that high. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants/Diamondbacks under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers have pitched well against these lineups in the past and I think Collmenter and Cain are also primed for good years. Cain has his money so it will interesting to see if he takes the next step, but his numbers continue to shine from advanced stat perspective. I think Collmenter is a guy you don't hear a lot about but is a guy you should know and I like him to pitch well today. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[dallasspartan]

Thanks LTA! Happy Easter

[bmansell33]

Happy Easter LTA .

UMPS:

Det: Iassogna
Cle: Everitt
Nym: Cuzzi
Cin: Runge
Bal: Welke
Tb: Fletcher
Hou: Culbreth
Mil: Hickox
Chi: Eddings
Laa: Wendelstedt
Sd: Barry
Arz: DiMuro
Tex: Wegner
Pit: Randazzo

First look leans, welcome your input bro,and anyone else who would like to chime in.

Phillies over
Astros under
Brewcrew under
Nat's
Cleveland
Yanks/over
Wsox/under

Do you follow dexter at all he does a lot with home plate umps

[Redscot]

Do you follow dexter at all he does a lot with home plate umps

I like Dex a lot, always check and see what he is on.

[Les_Nuts]

Like the giants ml as well as the under today. Cain should shut down the diamondbacks

[bmansell33]

I like Dex a lot, always check and see what he is on.

Right on seems we follow lot of same guys. Ive been copying your umps posts into his so people can see whos ho

[Love The Action]

Did you tell the lady where her place is?

Damn....it must suck to be your wife.

[Love The Action]

Ouch....got a horrible price on that Giants/Dbacks total. Damn that sucks. I have to admit, I didn't see that one getting juiced so high on the over. I should have waited. I still like the play, but you always have to worry about taking an under in Arizona.

[Redscot]

Play #3

Giants/Diamondbacks under (8.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Both pitchers have pitched well against these lineups in the past and I think Collmenter and Cain are also primed for good years. Cain has his money so it will interesting to see if he takes the next step, but his numbers continue to shine from advanced stat perspective. I think Collmenter is a guy you don't hear a lot about but is a guy you should know and I like him to pitch well today. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

I am allover that Houston under bud, one of my favorite plays today.

Staying away from the Mets game, I respect both of these pitchers...think it comes down to who is "on" today between them.

I think Collmeter's smoke and mirrors catches up to him at some point this season, but perhaps not yet. Only worry about Cain is the flyballs in Zona. BTW what's up with Cain always doing better than his peripherals huh.

I think the WSox are getting a great price here, Ogando/Adams/Nathan have all pitched the last 2 days.

[nickystacks]

Happy Easter LTA and thank you for all your picks. Was wondering if there were any books you could recommend for sports handicapping? More specifically baseball capping, but any would be greatly appreciated.

[Love The Action]

I am allover that Houston under bud, one of my favorite plays today.

Staying away from the Mets game, I respect both of these pitchers...think it comes down to who is "on" today between them.

I think Collmeter's smoke and mirrors catches up to him at some point this season, but perhaps not yet. Only worry about Cain is the flyballs in Zona. BTW what's up with Cain always doing better than his peripherals huh.

I think the WSox are getting a great price here, Ogando/Adams/Nathan have all pitched the last 2 days.

I like Niese a lot. I think he has a good year this year with a drop in BABIP and more consistency overall. However, the Braves are familiar with what he brings to the table and I think Minor should be able to limit that lineup today. I think Braves avoid the sweep in a close game.

Collmenter needs to increase his strikeouts and throw more ground balls. I am concerned about both guys throwing fly balls and thought the roof was going to be closed. I'm not so sure now as the line movement seems as though the roof will be open. I guess we'll see. First game of the year and the Giants need a good performance out of Cain. We had 9 runs yesterday and I expect we see about 7 or 8 runs today. I would not be surprised to cash this 4-3 or 5-3. Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but I could make an argument that Cain has underperformed when compared to his peripherals. I think one thing is certain, he will be under a lot of pressure this season not to be another Zito and earn that big contract. He needs to be more consistent, that is for sure.

If you think the Sox pose good value, what about Sanchez and the Royals?

[Love The Action]

Happy Easter LTA and thank you for all your picks. Was wondering if there were any books you could recommend for sports handicapping? More specifically baseball capping, but any would be greatly appreciated.

Moneyball is great for learning the basics about stats....check out the site fangraphs and learn what the numbers mean and how to use them.

[Redscot]

I like Niese a lot. I think he has a good year this year with a drop in BABIP and more consistency overall. However, the Braves are familiar with what he brings to the table and I think Minor should be able to limit that lineup today. I think Braves avoid the sweep in a close game.

Collmenter needs to increase his strikeouts and throw more ground balls. I am concerned about both guys throwing fly balls and thought the roof was going to be closed. I'm not so sure now as the line movement seems as though the roof will be open. I guess we'll see. First game of the year and the Giants need a good performance out of Cain. We had 9 runs yesterday and I expect we see about 7 or 8 runs today. I would not be surprised to cash this 4-3 or 5-3. Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but I could make an argument that Cain has underperformed when compared to his peripherals. I think one thing is certain, he will be under a lot of pressure this season not to be another Zito and earn that big contract. He needs to be more consistent, that is for sure.

If you think the Sox pose good value, what about Sanchez and the Royals?

With Cain it was really is running babip, although that is not crazy unusual for a fb pitcher, last year he maintained it really low throwing more gb's. Also his hr/fb % was very low last year. If both of those came up to league average his era would be higher.

Yes, Sanchez has me intrigued too! He's just so mercurial , when he is on though he has ace-type stuff.

BOL on the card bro

[italianbandit]

Nice price on the Braves. Red, I like the Phillies over at 7.5. Good luck LTA, I am with you on the Giants under. Also Bumgarner is following his trend of slow starts like last year I think the market will give us a good price next game.

[Love The Action]

Nice price on the Braves. Red, I like the Phillies over at 7.5. Good luck LTA, I am with you on the Giants under. Also Bumgarner is following his trend of slow starts like last year I think the market will give us a good price next game.

Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

I'm out for a family party. It looks like the roof in AZ has been confirmed open. http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

We got killed on the price in that one, but because the line movement is roof related I am not as concerned. Collmenter and Cain can keep this at 8 or under. It will be close. The other two plays are looking great from a line movement and price perspective. The Astros under is down to 7.5 (-110) on the under and the Braves closed at -124. Let's hope they pan out.

I have a few more leans in both NBA and MLB and will post them from my phone if I play anything else.
Good luck to all today and Happy Easter once again!

[jas19illini]

I'm out for a family party. It looks like the roof in AZ has been confirmed open. http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

We got killed on the price in that one, but because the line movement is roof related I am not as concerned. Collmenter and Cain can keep this at 8 or under. It will be close. The other two plays are looking great from a line movement and price perspective. The Astros under is down to 7.5 (-110) on the under and the Braves closed at -124. Let's hope they pan out.

I have a few more leans in both NBA and MLB and will post them from my phone if I play anything else.
Good luck to all today and Happy Easter once again!

Happy Easter buddy. enjoy the day.

[pacocn]

Lta, best of luck on your plays