LTA's MLB Plays

[Highness]

It's tough to pitch much worse than the Orioles did last year and they still pulled off 69 wins. They are definitely hopeless but that alone scares me out of betting on 70

Where on the dodgers do you see room for improvement? Kuroda was a big loss. Rubby will probably improve. The offense can only get worse as they signed a bunch of terrible players in the offseason; mark ellis and adam kennedy are the only ones that come to mind right now and while neither will start they are sure to be a black hole for however many ABs they will be getting. They re-signed grandpa juan rivera. There's a decent possibility of some regression for Kemp. They don't have anyone on offense that has any potential to improve more than marginally, if at all

[Redscot]

It's tough to pitch much worse than the Orioles did last year and they still pulled off 69 wins. They are definitely hopeless but that alone scares me out of betting on 70

Where on the dodgers do you see room for improvement? Kuroda was a big loss. Rubby will probably improve. The offense can only get worse as they signed a bunch of terrible players in the offseason; mark ellis and adam kennedy are the only ones that come to mind right now and while neither will start they are sure to be a black hole for however many ABs they will be getting. They re-signed grandpa juan rivera. There's a decent possibility of some regression for Kemp. They don't have anyone on offense that has any potential to improve more than marginally, if at all

We'll have to see what Chen and Wada bring to the table for Baltimore, but Arrieta, Hammel, Matusz, don't inspire confidence, perhaps Britton has potential for a better year. Bullpen is pretty light and Gregg at the end of it . While not world beaters, Scott and Guerrero provided offensive presence that has not been replaced. Veterans will probably be moved at some point in the season, and they play in the AL East! I just don't see them hitting 70.

As per the Dodgers, I was kinda surprised when I just looked them up that they won 82 games last year, including a strong finish. No doubt losing Kuroda hurts, but they added two vet's in Harang and Capuano. Harang sho0uld continue to be respectable in the spacious Dodger stadium and Capuano's advanced stats were excellent. I agree that Kemp has potential for some regression, but Uribe, who was injured last year and in his two previous years put up 2.9 and 3.3 WAR's. Ellis has been in the 3's in WAR every other year, so who knows. A full year of speed demon Gordon as a disruptive force at the top of the lineup helps. I admit I was a bit surprised when I looked up Loney and Ethier, both coming into potential contracts years, I thought they both had sub par years last year. In fact they were pretty much on par with their career numbers, so that may temper my expectations a bit on the Dodgers.

[Highness]

I thought Matusz was in the minors now? That would be unbelievable news if he's actually starting the season in the rotation. I made a ton of money betting against him the last month of the season. The last few games he pitched betting 1st 5 overs and full game overs was some of the biggest edges I'd seen all year.

[Highness]

Trumbo with 3 errors already in spring training. Combine that with the Angels likely to almost always be favorites, I'll look to be betting against them nearly every game the first month

[brucethebear]

We'll have to see what Chen and Wada bring to the table for Baltimore, but Arrieta, Hammel, Matusz, don't inspire confidence, perhaps Britton has potential for a better year. Bullpen is pretty light and Gregg at the end of it . While not world beaters, Scott and Guerrero provided offensive presence that has not been replaced. Veterans will probably be moved at some point in the season, and they play in the AL East! I just don't see them hitting 70.

The biggest problem is the easy wins cellar teams seem to have in September when most play off spots are already decided. I made good money betting on the Orioles in September, always at + money. Hard to see it being any more than "same old" for the Orioles.

PS - I thought you had to be wrong when you said LAD won 82 games last year. (When did that happen? )

[Redscot]

The biggest problem is the easy wins cellar teams seem to have in September when most play off spots are already decided. I made good money betting on the Orioles in September, always at + money. Hard to see it being any more than "same old" for the Orioles.

PS - I thought you had to be wrong when you said LAD won 82 games last year. (When did that happen? )

, I know right, I did a double take on the Dodgers win total. You make a good point about the September "cheap" wins, yet and still it wasn't enough to get Baltimore to 70 wins last year. Remember this year there is an added wildcard which means there will be 3 or 4 more teams this September playing "meaningful" games, which may make those wins harder to come by for the Baltimore/Houston's of the world down the stretch.

[Highness]

Anyone with a list of pitchers that have shown a decline in velocity(1+mph) this spring? I haven't looked in depth and just have Ubaldo and Pineda but I'm not making anything of Pineda's yet as he is very young and there is precedent for him getting back above 95. I'm more interested in pitcher's coming off injuries who have yet to recover velocity as that is more likely to be a permanent loss

[Redscot]

Anyone with a list of pitchers that have shown a decline in velocity(1+mph) this spring? I haven't looked in depth and just have Ubaldo and Pineda but I'm not making anything of Pineda's yet as he is very young and there is precedent for him getting back above 95. I'm more interested in pitcher's coming off injuries who have yet to recover velocity as that is more likely to be a permanent loss

Don't have a list, but names I have seen mentioned this spring: Pineda, Peavy, Halladay, Sanchez (K.C.), Richards (S.D.), Wilson (S.F.), Chapman, Jimenez (Cle), Turner (Det.), Meek (Pitt.)

Personally I think it is too early to get a read on the velocity for the most part. Some pitchers take longer to build up the arm strength than others (off-season program, winterball, injuries, body type etc.), and pitchers commonly go through a dead arm period after they have built the strength up. Let's give it a couple of weeks than revisit the topic.

[italianbandit]

LTA - how is the kid. Mine is 9.5 months old and just wants the boob all the time. He is a trip. I've started teaching him how to hold a baseball, but he'll probably think its too boring. Your NBA thread is a daycare center, but glad you are grinding and doing well. I trailed you a few times since I know nothing about the NBA. It felt like a mild anxiety attack.

What do you all think about Vogelsong, Bumgarner and Sabathia? Vogelsong was wonderful to fade second half last season. Low Era, poor advanced stats. What will the early market perception of Bumgarner be (He seems to be a late starter which may give us some great spots to take him later on)? And what about Sabathia, thoughts on regression.

[brucethebear]

What do you all think about Vogelsong, Bumgarner and Sabathia? Vogelsong was wonderful to fade second half last season. Low Era, poor advanced stats. What will the early market perception of Bumgarner be (He seems to be a late starter which may give us some great spots to take him later on)? And what about Sabathia, thoughts on regression.

I think CC will have a great year. At times last year, he looked like a man who was carrying the pitching load (and feeling the pressure of doing so.) However, he still managed 19 wins. With the addition of Pineda and Kuroda, the Yankees rotation looks very solid. I think CC will crack 20 wins this year.

[Redscot]

I think CC will have a great year. At times last year, he looked like a man who was carrying the pitching load (and feeling the pressure of doing so.) However, he still managed 19 wins. With the addition of Pineda and Kuroda, the Yankees rotation looks very solid. I think CC will crack 20 wins this year.

He was also carrying a major load around his waist, something he rectified in the off-season. He's in the proverbial "best shape of his life". I hate the Yank's but C.C. is a horse and I think he has a great year. Vogelsong is more the 2nd half guy from last year than the first in my opinion. His peripheral numbers are nothing to write Grandma about....I could see an era around 3.90. I think Bumgarner puts up similar numbers to last year, perhaps a slight regression.

Take 'em for what they are worth, but for conversation my top 10 regression list for 2012 atm (numbers are not final yet)

Player	2012	2011	Diff.
Aceves,A	4.12	2.61	1.51
Cueto,J	3.72	2.31	1.41
Johnson,J	3.04	1.64	1.40
Hellickson,J	4.23	2.95	1.28
Moscoso,G	4.61	3.38	1.23
Vogelsong,R	3.91	2.78	1.13
Jurrjens,J	4.08	2.96	1.12
Moseley,D	4.29	3.30	0.99
Weaver,J	3.40	2.41	0.99
Saunders,J	4.63	3.69	0.94

[Love The Action]

Great conversation going on in here....keep it up! I will catch up on my MLB team previews by next week and will start spending more time in here as we get closer to the season opener. This is my favorite time of the year with both NBA and MLB in full gear.

Here is a great video explaining how lines are set in the "new world" of sports investing. Enjoy!

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I am a rockies season ticket holder and watch the NL west as much as humanly possible. I have a insomnia issue and dvr Vin scully all 162 games a year I fall asleep to Vinny 260ish nights a year when Im not in LV.

I play poker for a living and I owe LTA I followed him some around the beginning of the season. Heres my take.

Arizona- Wins the wild card at the least. I hate the Dbacks but the addition of Cahill to a a already formidable rotation and the bat of Kubel makes me believe this team & orginization want more than last year.
Kirk Gibson is a firecracker and showed great poise and patience with his bullpen last year. I expect more of the same.
They will not sneak up on anyone this season but that rotation should weather some storms. If theyre bullpen is as good as last year I believe we see 86-90 wins.

San Fran-
Same old same old. Cain, lincecum, baumgartner, Sanchez whoever they throw out there isnt gonna give up much that's for sure.
However the bullpen and lineup just arent what I expected from a orginization known for making huge moves didn't add the power hitter I expected and after watching Wison struggle and Affeldt look tired last sept I expected some big named to land in that bullpen.
I see this team contending but not being a 87-95 win team they were in 09 & 10.
Posey will have a impact i have them as a 84 win team.

San diego-The Oakland A's of the NL. They trade alot of arms the last 2 years and it's clear that Adrian Gonzales was the face of their franchise and theyre a team in a steady rebuilding position. With that said they will have alot of prospects getting major league experience and as we saw 2 years ago they can do some damage to their division foes. I dont see enough talent here to be a 500 team but with that coaching staff 73-78 wins where theyre a year maybe 2 away would be probable imho.

LA- Its pretty sad that the team with maybe the best starting pitcher and definitly the best centerfielder in the game has no ownership group that can surround Kershaw & Kemp with enough firepower to really make a run in the near future.
I cabt see this team who struggled last year better and I have them being a most 75 win team at best. No offseason moves and of last week no closer had been named.
I spend alot of time at commerce and all the local dodger fans have the same complaint in common..
55$ a ticket for right field is attrocious and they dont sign anyone and all the money goes to divorce settlements etc
it is what it is.

My 1st of what imagine will be hundreds of bets this season...

Colorado Rockies (3 units)
under 81.5 games
This is my team mind you and yes theyre have alot of bats. Made some meh moves by getting a formidable cather replacing iannetta and getting something for stewart.
Heres where they will fail badly. They have no bullpen! Betancourt struggles with his delivery and although he throws hard the ball travels much further in the thin air. He has trouble spotting his pitches and has struggled with his control the past two seasons.

Thy have major holes in center field and 3rd base. Dexter Fowler every year we hear how hes the 2nd coming and has been working so hard with the games best in the offseason.. June dexters always in AAA.
Lets say Dexter has a good year, scutaro and cuddyer all have great years.
Rotation is Chacin (decebt but not a #1)
Guthrie (17 losses we trade for him)
PomerNantz (rookie whos shown sone promise in spring but he throws low 90s and in coors on a hot day thats gonna get hit out alot)
Nicasio- nothing bad to say here win or lose the guy deserves alot of credit just for going out there. He almost died last season I was at that game and it affected me and my friensa quite badly it was very unpleasant.
Moyer!
Tulo, cargo will put up numbers but I have the team pegged same as last year. 76 wins and they had a healthy Delarosa and Jiminez for half of tge year as well.
It could be a gery long summer and I hope Im wrong but in case Im not Id like to profit from it.

[pokerwhiz90]

aww yeah!

[mikea33]

so is this where the plays will be or will you start a new one LTA?

[ronnieseah]

any one know how many away team sweep a 3 games series last season?

[Love The Action]

so is this where the plays will be or will you start a new one LTA?

All mlb plays wil be posted here. I will not play anything until at least the normal openers on 4/4. I take my time with mlb only making spot plays for the first couple weeks until I can get more data for my model. GL

[mcduggly]

following. good luck buddy.

[vyomguy]

[absolutkaos]

good Podcast about the upcoming season from Bill Simmons (featuring Jonah Keri as guest) talking seasonal bets and who might be overrated/underrated and potential sleepers...

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=7743604

[Love The Action]

I have a strong lean on the total (right now I am getting 7 (+105/-125) for opening day between the Cards and Marlins. All you Marlins fans out there, how has Johnson looked this spring?

[mikea33]

Pretty lights out LTA.

"Johnson threw 5 2/3 innings in Friday night's 3-2 loss to the Washington Nationals.He gave up a leadoff home run to Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond and allowed three runs and six hits while walking one and striking out nine.
Most importantly, he hasn't had any trouble with the right shoulder discomfort that sidelined him after May 16 last season.
"I've been happy with the entire (spring)," he said. "I'm putting all the work in to make sure I'm recovering. I feel good out there. It's going according to plan so far."
Friday night was also big for two other Marlins. Outfielders Giancarlo Stanton (wrist/knee) and Logan Morrison (knee) returned to the lineup. Stanton, playing in his first game since March 11, went 0 for 2 with a walk.
"It was good to just be with the guys and feel good on the field for once," Stanton said.
Morrison went 1 for 3 with an RBI single.
"It felt great," the left fielder said. "I know it's spring training, but I was pretty excited, nervous ... ready to run through a wall like I tried to do on Desmond's home run. It was fun."
Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen has said he might give Morrison a day off here and there, especially early in the season, to rest his right knee.
Morrison said he wouldn't ask for a day off, but he would do what Guillen wanted. He was just happy to report there was no swelling, especially after playing in a minor league game on Thursday. He is expected to play Saturday against the Mets.
"It wasn't achy or stiff like it was (Thursday)," Morrison said of his knee. "That's good. I don't know if it's just a good day, or if it's getting that much better. I guess we'll find out tomorrow."
Morrison and Stanton are excited about the opportunity to open up their new stadium, too.
Johnson said it was a chance to start a new chapter in the history of the organization, which will also play its first season after changing its name to the Miami Marlins.
"I'll be pretty pumped up, but I always seem to be that way, no matter what the game is, no matter what the situation," Johnson said. "That first inning, I've just got to make sure I go with what (catcher John) Buck puts down."
While the Marlins had their potential opening day lineup Friday night, the Nationals sent left-hander Ross Detwiler to the mound to make his first spring training start.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/0...#ixzz1qqTv82yD

[mikea33]

he threw 5 scoreless i believe

[mikea33]

Although he struggled at times, walking five, Johnson tossed five scoreless innings, giving up just three hits and striking out four to lower his spring ERA to 1.62 over 16 2/3 innings, another encouraging sign in his return from a shortened 2011 season. What made Johnson most happy Sunday was his dominance in the second and third innings, when he made just 17 pitches — 13 for strikes — to retire six Rays hitters in order.

Johnson said his mechanics were off in the first inning, when he gave up a hit, threw a wild pitch and walked two. But after catcher John Buck pointed out to him that he wasn’t getting his throwing hand out of his glove on time, Johnson found his groove. He hit 94 miles per hour on the radar gun several times.
“Sometimes, you need little reminders like that,” Johnson said.
Johnson got to taste a little adrenaline. In the fourth, he worked himself out of trouble with the bases loaded and one out by getting Jose Molina to hit into an inning-ending double play.
In the fifth, trainer Sean Cunningham and pitching coach Randy St. Claire came out to check on Johnson, who popped a blister on his finger. But he waved them off and later got himself out of trouble with runners on second and third and nobody out by striking out Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce before getting Evan Longoria to fly out to right.
“Then I just had to bear down, go for that strikeout and get that adrenaline flowing in the middle of the game,” Johnson said. “Good to get that feeling again.”
At the plate, Johnson also doubled home a run with a line-drive shot to center field off Rays starterWade Davis. Buck hit a solo home run, and Bryan Petersen hit a two-run home run off Davis. The Marlins won for the first time since March 15, ending an 0-7-2 run in Grapefruit League action.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/2...#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/2...#storylink=cpy

Johnson said his mechanics were off in the first inning, when he gave up a hit, threw a wild pitch and walked two. But after catcher John Buck pointed out to him that he wasn’t getting his throwing hand out of his glove on time, Johnson found his groove. He hit 94 miles per hour on the radar gun several times.
“Sometimes, you need little reminders like that,” Johnson said.
Johnson got to taste a little adrenaline. In the fourth, he worked himself out of trouble with the bases loaded and one out by getting Jose Molina to hit into an inning-ending double play.
In the fifth, trainer Sean Cunningham and pitching coach Randy St. Claire came out to check on Johnson, who popped a blister on his finger. But he waved them off and later got himself out of trouble with runners on second and third and nobody out by striking out Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce before getting Evan Longoria to fly out to right.
“Then I just had to bear down, go for that strikeout and get that adrenaline flowing in the middle of the game,” Johnson said. “Good to get that feeling again.”
At the plate, Johnson also doubled home a run with a line-drive shot to center field off Rays starterWade Davis. Buck hit a solo home run, and Bryan Petersen hit a two-run home run off Davis. The Marlins won for the first time since March 15, ending an 0-7-2 run in Grapefruit League action.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/2...#storylink=cpy

[burchfield]

I got my first 2 wins today. Another Cat on sbr is 13 -0 run. wished I caught it earlier. LTA I hope u do good this year.

[hey buddy]

I have a strong lean on the total (right now I am getting 7 (+105/-125) for opening day between the Cards and Marlins. All you Marlins fans out there, how has Johnson looked this spring?

Which way are you leaning?

[JasonD5]

thanks for the picks, following you. good luck to all !

[balu000]

I've never bet MLB before, I'll try this year by following you. Best wishes mate in the upcoming season

[ronnieseah]

cant wait for this to start rolling

[Redscot]

Looking forward to the start of the season and hopefully it will be a profitable one, I have confidence with LTA's hard work and discipline it will be .

The following are some of the site's I use for capping as well as enjoyment, so thought I'd share them.

For weather/wind etc.

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

Lineups:

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

Stats/Matchups/history etc.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

http://www.fangraphs.com/

https://www.mlbdepthcharts.com

An awesome Ump spreadsheet created by a poster of another site:

http://cappingthegame.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=47707&d=1332970070

Nerdy shit

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

There ya have it! Happy capping and best of luck to all this season.

[SlickRick1382]

I have a strong lean on the total (right now I am getting 7 (+105/-125) for opening day between the Cards and Marlins. All you Marlins fans out there, how has Johnson looked this spring?

I'm assuming you're leaning Under?

[Les_Nuts]

I lean over in this one. Can see Miami scoring 4

[meader99]

I lean over in this one. Can see Miami scoring 4

I lean to the over as well, but I think Miami scores more than 4 against Lohse. However, I can see the Cards offense struggling especially early in the year without the bat of Pujols. I think the biggest effect of his departure will be felt by the 1 and 2 hole hitters who will not see anything clsoe to the pitches they got to hit when ALbert was in the 3 hole. Since I lean over, I have little doubt that LTA is coming with the under.

[No coincidences]

Betancourt struggles with his delivery and although he throws hard the ball travels much further in the thin air. He has trouble spotting his pitches and has struggled with his control the past two seasons.

He's walked 16 in 124 innings. That's struggling?

[CHAZ]

I think tonights line is a slap in the face to the WS champs.