LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

LTA,
Thanks for all and have enjoyed your thread for the later part of the season. Learned alot from you and your write-ups. All the best to you. I will be following your NCAAF and NFL threads also.
Respectfully,
MasterEOD

Glad I could help

[815Sox]

Did you guys here about this story out of st. louis that the bullpen phones were out of order or something and they gave LaRussa dotel when he wanted motte....

Sounds like excuses, but that is unforgivable if true. I still can't believe that missed double play on the error on reczypinski....

Still not sure why he wouldn't have wanted Dotel in that situation. Dotel vs Cruz is a good matchup for the Cards, especially with how Dotel looked against Beltre.

I think Tony might have been looking for an excuse, he overmanaged the game. Washington and LaRussa both had bad nights, Washington's was slightly worse. That entire Cardinals team seemed off last night.

I am on the Rangers, the under seems too juiced up for me to take right now. If the juice drops I will probably grab it.

[pacocn]

Lta, bol on your plays today

[Trivial]

On both plays already. Loving my under 8 purchase - now, that is -160.

LTA - I have a lot of respect for what you do for us.

[Trivial]

5 Dimes just dropped the main line to 7 for the total.

[Creepingdoom]

I'm wondering if +1.5 run line is a better bet since the under is now 7.

[Donnie Brasco]

Terrific long term bet there lta. Crushing pinny brother! Unfortunately i missed all value in the total and side so i will be sitting this one out! I will be pulling for u guys!

[CantLose1]

In case you guys didn't realize already, the play of entire year has been josh hamilton props in the series. I've made my biggest bets of the year on these. I haven't seen such high expectation bets all year. Josh Hamilton cannot homeruns right now, literally, he admitted it himself. And on bodog you can lay -650 that he won't hit one, true odds should be 50x that number. The best bets are anything that emphasizes doubles, triples, and home runs which would favors the total bases props(you can get him vs molina on pinnacle) over whether or not he will get a hit. He can still get hits but his slugging percentage has likely been cut by well over half

This kind of edge comes along once a season if that. I've never seen such an inefficiency. I had packed it in for the playoffs until game 1 of the series gave absolute confirmation of how much the injury is affecting his swing. I wish I was paying closer attention earlier in the playoffs

[Louisvillekid1]

such bs, killed this number and now how can you play u 7 ev and tex ev.... tough call now

[upscope]

such bs, killed this number and now how can you play u 7 ev and tex ev.... tough call now

Well the u7.5 was juiced as high as -135 in some spots. My book moved to u7 +105 right before rain out.
I rather chance the push @ +105 rather than lay -135 that's for sure......In fact I flat out refuse to lay -135 on a total under any circumstances.

[Louisvillekid1]

i had it at -110 and +108 on tex

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/25/11

Play #1

Rangers (+113) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +113. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +113 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-120) 1x (Locked)

So glad I locked this in early because right when I was writing up my play on the Rangers, the line dropped to 7.5. I only wish I went bigger on the under. Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. We have all the factors of a big game under and I may be adding this play down the road. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

These plays have been cancelled. Not sure what I'm going to do now. Books gave themselves a do over on this one and screwed us in the process. We were in great position but now we need to reevaluate. Most value has been sucked out of these lines. May have to call it a season....we'll see. Gotta think about it....

[Love The Action]

Well the u7.5 was juiced as high as -135 in some spots. My book moved to u7 +105 right before rain out.
I rather chance the push @ +105 rather than lay -135 that's for sure......In fact I flat out refuse to lay -135 on a total under any circumstances.

In a way, I understand your thinking. However, playing the under at 7 as opposed to 7.5 or 8 substantially decreases your odds of cashing. I know you already understand this, but it something that is elementary but yet still needs to be considered. At the end of the day, we are betting real money in this thread not the air bets that you find all around SBR (e.g. all the lock threads, etc.). I am hesitant to put my money on a number that I know has a significantly smaller probability of cashing in comparison to the previous price I bet on the same matchup.

With that said, my model has 6.7 for the total in this one and +110 for Texas. I can currently get 7 (+105) and the Rangers at +107. Those aren't great bets compared to what we previously had, but might just be worth playing especially considering these are last games of the year.

GL

[CantLose1]

These plays have been cancelled. Not sure what I'm going to do now. Books gave themselves a do over on this one and screwed us in the process. We were in great position but now we need to reevaluate. Most value has been sucked out of these lines. May have to call it a season....we'll see. Gotta think about it....

Bet the Hamilton props. Have you ever seen anything like it? A guy who can't hit a HR being offered a price on not being able to hit one

[DrStale]

Bet the Hamilton props. Have you ever seen anything like it? A guy who can't hit a HR being offered a price on not being able to hit one

The guy is getting healthier, and he just got two days of rest. I dont think the value is there anymore.

[CantLose1]

The guy is getting healthier, and he just got two days of rest. I dont think the value is there anymore.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/27/11

Play #1

Rangers (+110) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +110. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +110 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. I have this one set at 6.7 so we are not getting anywhere near the value we did with a total of 8 on the cancelled game, but all the factors remain for an under so I will take a shot here. The books are still getting almost 90% of all bets on the over, yet they have steadily dropped the price on the total and I expect the juice to shift to the under by tonight. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I decided to stick with my original plays for game 6. I only lost 3 cents on the ml and was able to get the under at plus odds. I think we still beat the closer tonight, albeit not as much as we would have if the game was played yesterday, but we eeked out a modicum of value on both plays still. This is game 6 of the world and I like these plays, so I'm going to take a shot. Good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Pitt covered my ass last night im on rangers too and the U -13.5 15x maybe chasin but like it alot lets get this money

[Love The Action]

Pitt covered my ass last night im on rangers too and the U -13.5 15x maybe chasin but like it alot lets get this money

Good luck buck!

[Love The Action]

Bet the Hamilton props. Have you ever seen anything like it? A guy who can't hit a HR being offered a price on not being able to hit one

My books aren't offering hamilton props. GL

[Trivial]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/27/11

Play #1

Rangers (+110) 1x (Locked)

I have the Rangers at +110, so not a ton of value here. However, I think the Rangers win this game and the series and it basically gives me the Rangers series bet for +110. I think the fact that the Rangers bats just saw Garcia will help them more than St. Louis facing Lewis. I always say intangibles matter least in baseball than any other sport and stats are the most important. However, in this case, I think Lewis' ability to step up and be a big game pitcher is why I am making this play. Even though Garcia is the better statistical pitcher, I think Lewis is the better big game pitcher at least at this point in time. I think +110 on the Rangers to win the series are pretty great odds compared to those who took them at -140 or more before game one. I like the Rangers lineup against Garcia a little bit better than I like Cards lineup against Lewis and that slight edge is all we need in games like this. I think the Rangers get it done on Wednesday and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers/Cardinals under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that this is a world series elimination game, both pitchers will bring their A-game, the wind is projected to blow hard across the field at 15 mph toward the first base line which should help keep balls to the alleys in the park and Cederstrom is the ump and he is a huge under ump. I have this one set at 6.7 so we are not getting anywhere near the value we did with a total of 8 on the cancelled game, but all the factors remain for an under so I will take a shot here. The books are still getting almost 90% of all bets on the over, yet they have steadily dropped the price on the total and I expect the juice to shift to the under by tonight. I am rolling with the under for 1x and may add to that stake down the road. Good luck.

BOL to us. I'm on both plays. I think I'm going higher than one unit each though, especially the Rangers one, but probably both. GL.

[upscope]

In a way, I understand your thinking. However, playing the under at 7 as opposed to 7.5 or 8 substantially decreases your odds of cashing. I know you already understand this, but it something that is elementary but yet still needs to be considered. At the end of the day, we are betting real money in this thread not the air bets that you find all around SBR (e.g. all the lock threads, etc.). I am hesitant to put my money on a number that I know has a significantly smaller probability of cashing in comparison to the previous price I bet on the same matchup.

With that said, my model has 6.7 for the total in this one and +110 for Texas. I can currently get 7 (+105) and the Rangers at +107. Those aren't great bets compared to what we previously had, but might just be worth playing especially considering these are last games of the year.

GL

I hear ya LTA but remember you got that 8 from your local which was a phenomenal line for you. The best any of us could have done was u7.5 as u8 was never an option. And I saw the u7.5 juiced as high as -135. I'm not really a fan of laying heavy juice on totals. I'd rather just pass instead of laying. However, if I had a shot at the 8 that you got I would reconsider.
My personal preference in the scenario we're faced w/ is to risk the push & take +$ on u7 rather than lay -125 on u7.5......Mathematically I'm probably incorrect in doing so (you would know better than me) but it's just my personal preference. For me it's risk the push or pass....
And I'll also tell ya this.....the way I've been runnin' lately I wish I had been air betting

GL tonight pal~

[supr_villn]

u have all already lost on the under b4 even opening pitch

[Trivial]

u have all already lost on the under b4 even opening pitch

Really? Last time I checked the rules, the score is 0-0 before the opening pitch. So how do you figure?

[upscope]

u have all already lost on the under b4 even opening pitch

Thanx 4 stopping by......

[Trivial]

Thanx 4 stopping by......

Indeed. It always amazes me that people feel better about their own picks by bashing others. It is okay to disagree, but be respectful and explain yourself. I agree with upscope. Thanks for stopping by and wish you good luck, but stay away unless you are productive.

[Trivial]

Well... Not as much as yesterday, but looks like we beat the closures by a little bit. Both the side and total are a few cents worse than we bought this morning in our favour.

[Love The Action]

Well... Not as much as yesterday, but looks like we beat the closures by a little bit. Both the side and total are a few cents worse than we bought this morning in our favour.

Not bad....take a look at the juice on the over though. Pinny opened at -120 on the over, got as high as -124 and now sits at -110. That's over a ten cent shift to the under at its highest point, despite over 77% of all bets on the over. As far as the side, we've seen a five cent move in our favor. That's pretty significant considering the efficiency of the ML market in MLB.

I like it

Don't know if you're playing it, but did you check out the movement on the Rice/Hou over for NCAAF...sitting at 73.5 now

Good luck tonight Triv

[Redscot]

GL Gents Personally on Texas and the over. This is an instance in an elimination game where I don't think we have enough in the pitching tank to hold down the bats. Larussa over/under pitchers used 5 1/2....what do you guys think? Lets go Texas, and if the under hits will be happy for the thread followers and LTA especially, the hardest working man in SBR!

[Trivial]

Not bad....take a look at the juice on the over though. Pinny opened at -120 on the over, got as high as -124 and now sits at -110. That's over a ten cent shift to the under at its highest point, despite over 77% of all bets on the over. As far as the side, we've seen a five cent move in our favor. That's pretty significant considering the efficiency of the ML market in MLB.

I like it

Don't know if you're playing it, but did you check out the movement on the Rice/Hou over for NCAAF...sitting at 73.5 now

Good luck tonight Triv

Good luck in al your picks LTA as well. I did notice the shift in the OVER as well. Not playing the NCAA tonight. Focus on the hopefully last bball game of the season

[Trivial]

GL Gents Personally on Texas and the over. This is an instance in an elimination game where I don't think we have enough in the pitching tank to hold down the bats. Larussa over/under pitchers used 5 1/2....what do you guys think? Lets go Texas, and if the under hits will be happy for the thread followers and LTA especially, the hardest working man in SBR!

Thanks Red. LTA has earned both the side and under tonight and since I am tailing, I also hope he hits. LOL.

[Trivial]

Oh oh. Can we hope for a 3-2 tex win?

[Trivial]

Congrats to the over backers. You basically now got it. Now lets just hope Texas wins.

[supr_villn]

Really? Last time I checked the rules, the score is 0-0 before the opening pitch. So how do you figure?

what did i tell u ?? ..

(no -> seriously)



WHAT
DID
I
TELL
U !! ??