LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

You nailed it yesterday Fitguy, and I like your reasoning on it today...it is the only play I would make on the side. No way with the way these two teams match up at this stage I pay 170+ juice. I agree with LTA here on the under, takes 11 runs for us to lose here....may parlay it small with the Cards as well.

I probably should have waited to today to play it, since I can get -105 right now, but I knew most of my time would be taken up with football today and didn't want to risk losing the total at 10. So we didn't get the best price available on the play, but as long as I beat the closer I will be satisfied. Let's just see where the money ends up...good luck today Red

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-23-11, 10:30 AM

Taking the cards and over. Over getting hit hard at pinny @ -133, will close at 10. Got 9.5 -110, and rangers are way overpriced. Good luck guys!

**mt675826** · 10-23-11, 10:49 AM

Wow LTA solid write up, thanks! I got burned parlaying the Cards with the under last night... hahaha looks just ridiculous now but moving on. Went out for a bit just now and the under at Bodog moved from 9.5 (+110) to 10 (even). I like that extra .5 and for even money it's still a solid wager. And I agree I wouldn't be surprised if it drops back to 9.5 this afternoon as people slam the under 10. Cards sitting at +163 (typical bodog). Need a boost after last night's disappointment, on them both bud! GL!

**mt675826** · 10-23-11, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

You nailed it yesterday Fitguy, and I like your reasoning on it today...it is the only play I would make on the side. No way with the way these two teams match up at this stage I pay 170+ juice. I agree with LTA here on the under, takes 11 runs for us to lose here....may parlay it small with the Cards as well.

Excellent.

**Trivial** · 10-23-11, 11:08 AM

Ouch. Ya. Under 10 is even money now, and I got it for -115.

So I took another unit at even money to make me feel better for an average of -107.5

:-)

**bleedtoledo** · 10-23-11, 01:26 PM

I have it at 10.5 now..

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-23-11, 02:38 PM

Over 10 getting juiced at pinny-121. This thing is going to 10.5. Over 9.5 will turn out to be a bargain.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-23-11, 05:09 PM

Sweet, beating pinny by 10 cents on money line and 1 run on the total. Probably lose them both.

**pacocn** · 10-23-11, 06:31 PM

I got the Under early this am. since i had
to go to work and i wanted to at least get the 10
bol everyone.

**Trivial** · 10-23-11, 06:36 PM

BOL everyone. I need this after a hell of a couple weeks. I'm sure we all do.

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 06:44 PM

Total dropped to 9.5 at Pinny just as I predicted....Good luck tonight!

**MrXYZ** · 10-23-11, 06:49 PM

Got the under 10 +105. Good luck everyone!

**Trivial** · 10-23-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Total dropped to 9.5 at Pinny just as I predicted....Good luck tonight!

You da man.

**BernardMadoff** · 10-23-11, 07:14 PM

Good luck LTA, do you bet overs?

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Good luck LTA, do you bet overs?

Ofcourse! However, I don't think I've bet an MLB over in the playoffs yet. I leaned to the over yesterday, but didn't take it. Obviously, that was a mistake.

You have to remember that my model strongly weight starting pitchers advanced stats in determining the game total and result. Therefore, when you have two strong pitchers, which you generally get in the playoffs, I will end up playing more unders.

In MLB, however, I do play way more unders than overs. This differs from NCAAF, where I play more overs than unders. However, I always play what my model and other capping factors tell me to play according to where the value lies. Therefore, I'm more a value player than an "under" or "over" guy.

Good luck tonight Bernie!

**BernardMadoff** · 10-23-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Ofcourse! However, I don't think I've bet an MLB over in the playoffs yet. I leaned to the over yesterday, but didn't take it. Obviously, that was a mistake.

You have to remember that my model strongly weight starting pitchers advanced stats in determining the game total and result. Therefore, when you have two strong pitchers, which you generally get in the playoffs, I will end up playing more unders.

In MLB, however, I do play way more unders than overs. This differs from NCAAF, where I play more overs than unders. However, I always play what my model and other capping factors tell me to play according to where the value lies. Therefore, I'm more a value player than an "under" or "over" guy.

Good luck tonight Bernie!

Thanks for clarifying my man, good luck to you too.

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 10:05 PM

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/24/11

Play #1

Cardinals (+115) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come...good luck.

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Ouch. Ya. Under 10 is even money now, and I got it for -115.

So I took another unit at even money to make me feel better for an average of -107.5

:-)

2x winner!

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 10:58 PM

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/23/11

1 - 0 = +1x

MLB 2011 Playoffs

18 - 10 = +9.182x

Good luck on Monday!

**Love The Action** · 10-23-11, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/24/11

Play #1

Cardinals (+115) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come...good luck.

Here is the first play for Monday...good luck!

**hardball** · 10-23-11, 11:21 PM

I'll be pounding Texas.

Means your play is golden with the playoff run I've had.

**fitguy67** · 10-23-11, 11:52 PM

nice one hardball, for the second day in a row i rolled small with STL on the basis of value (i got'em early at +168) but wasn't really confident to win that play back to back in Arlington...luckily the under saved my ass for the day...congrats on the nice win u needed

now it's a 2 out of 3...with last two in STL...hmmm

**CdeQ** · 10-24-11, 01:34 AM

Got the under today at 10 +110, will be on St Louis with you tomorrow

**Trivial** · 10-24-11, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Here is the first play for Monday...good luck!

Got it. Thx buds.

**815Sox** · 10-24-11, 02:01 PM

I really like Carp in this spot tonight, already have a unit down, might double up before the game starts. Not sure on the total... anyone have any leans? Not sure what we will get from Wilson... he does tend to do better at home.

**Trivial** · 10-24-11, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I really like Carp in this spot tonight, already have a unit down, might double up before the game starts. Not sure on the total... anyone have any leans? Not sure what we will get from Wilson... he does tend to do better at home.

I got lot line last night at +115 and saw the movement today. I took another unit at +113.

I bet you this closes pretty close to even today. In fact, there are a few offshores that are already exactly even.

**Love The Action** · 10-24-11, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/24/11

Play #1

Cardinals (+115) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Cardinals/Rangers under (8)(+100) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup...good luck!

**No coincidences** · 10-24-11, 05:36 PM

+120?

**supr_villn** · 10-24-11, 05:40 PM

i like unders too

pitiful playoffs
but 7/8 WS ..

overs gm 2 only miss !

i'll probably just ride the fck outta STL ml
& of course 2x parlay that w/ MNF overs ftw

EZ
STREET !

**Love The Action** · 10-24-11, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

+120?

Typo...meant +100...GL tonight

**Trivial** · 10-24-11, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

I got lot line last night at +115 and saw the movement today. I took another unit at +113.

I bet you this closes pretty close to even today. In fact, there are a few offshores that are already exactly even.

Boy was I wrong. Up to +119 or higher. Late money coming in on Texas obviously.

**No coincidences** · 10-24-11, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Typo...meant +100...GL tonight

Good luck. No real opinion on this total -- I'd lean over, but the fact that it's not going to 8.5 is telling.

**Trivial** · 10-24-11, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good luck. No real opinion on this total -- I'd lean over, but the fact that it's not going to 8.5 is telling.

I am waiting for the same thing before placing the wager. Don't want to be burnt like the ML.

I saw Bookmaker switch it to 8.5 for like a minute and switched back, but I missed it.

**Ryan138** · 10-24-11, 06:39 PM

Now LTA, (Strickly trying to learn here, come check in the thread for that purpose a lot), you always talk about beating the closer. I've always been curious about what happened tonight. Now you could have waited and got the Cards at +122 right now at places. Does that mean it was a bad bet on your part now (how you said your losing money in the long run)? So are bets only good if the line moves in your favor after you bet it? Thanks, again just trying to learn things here, I mean no offense. Thanks, and awesome thread.

**Trivial** · 10-24-11, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Typo...meant +100...GL tonight

Wow.. This over/under must be going mad. I had to catch +100. Everytime I tried to place the bet, it changed from -105, -110, +100 during the execution. Finally hit it at +100, but it wasn't easy.