LTA's MLB Plays

**mt675826** · 10-20-11, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by diazmoney2300

best time of my life red and the best people ive ever met yes ur right has its good and bad but the diffrence in living jus amazing didnt have a problem adjusting we can clog up this whole page jus talkin about it lol but lots of respect to l.t.a. love all the info in here. Red im in paterson,nj and i dont know if u been around this area but this is becoming little D.R. grab ur plastic chair and ur beer and sit out front and play some dominoes lmao....

Im in Canada, but have been to DR twice, both times when I was in high school. It was an absolute blast - beautiful scenery, weather, women, food, music, everything. People were amazing. Where I live we pay close to 30$ CAD for a bottle of Brugal, I remember buying the same thing for about 5-10$ American while I was there, such a deal we get hosed on taxes here in Canada. Got out to the countryside on some tours, ripping around on the beach on horses, it was incredible. The guide dude was pounding brews and rum with me whenever the fam was not around. I was 14, it was awesome. He was a champ!

I think the cards keep rocking tonight and considering the under based almost entirely on weather. There were so many fly outs last night.

**Dexter** · 10-20-11, 10:28 AM

greg gibson behind the plate tonight.

edit....n/m...i see you guys discussing on prior page

**Dexter** · 10-20-11, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Redscot - thoughts on garcia tonight?

As far as the total goes, I think we can trust Lewis....what about Garcia?

garcia is a home pitcher....he should be fine for 6/7 of 2 run ball.

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

greg gibson behind the plate tonight.

, Yup Dex, just waiting on the wind factor myself, Lewis being such a fly ball pitcher if that wind turns a shade to blowing out

.

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

garcia is a home pitcher....he should be fine for 6/7 of 2 run ball.

, i

Yup and he has handled RHB well too. Larussa has a very short lease atm though Garcia will have to be borderline dominant to get through 6 imo.

**No coincidences** · 10-20-11, 10:51 AM

What's keeping you from hitting this under LTA?

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What's keeping you from hitting this under LTA?

I think he is swamped at work....if he does like it will have to see where the line stands as it is moving south in a hurry.

**No coincidences** · 10-20-11, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

I think he is swamped at work....if he does like it will have to see where the line stands as it is moving south in a hurry.

I agree with you that I want to see what the wind is going to do, but this under looks golden again (at least on the surface).

**Dexter** · 10-20-11, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by no coincidences

i agree with you that i want to see what the wind is going to do, but this under looks golden again (at least on the surface).

wind out to right 7-12

**miguelj** · 10-20-11, 01:13 PM

L.T.A do we have a play for 2nite? BY THE WAY THANKS FOR LAST NITES WINNER.

**TucsonTom** · 10-20-11, 01:35 PM

Wind is blowing from the WNW, which is a cross wind that slightly blows out to right field. The wind will be under 10 m.p.h. so it is below LTA's threshold to consider it a factor. Also, both teams are loaded with right handed power hitters. The humidity will be over 50% at game time and climb throughout the game which will help the pitchers a little bit to keep the ball in the ballpark.

The 5 inning line under looks enticing. Garcia has a different release than most pitchers as he comes almost completely over the top. His arm slot really helps him hide his slider and changeup which were both very effective throughout the season. I would think that there will be some adjustment issues for the Ranger hitters. Also, there will be no opportunities for pinch hitters in the 9 spot (unless something crazy happens).

Of course, I will await the sagely advice of LTA!

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 02:17 PM

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/20/11

Play #1

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Great analysis and discussion going on in here from everyone, so keep it up. I am super busy at work, plus I'm working on a possible total play for ncaaf tonight and a possible play on the side in this game, but I will say this about tonights game. Neither pitcher has faced these lineups so we have the unfamiliarity factor in our corner. The ump is a big under guy. Garcia's platoon splits show him to be just as effective against righties as lefties so we shouldn't be concerned about the righty heavy lineup of texas. Lewis has pitched well throughout this years playoffs and last year so he seems capable of handling the pressure. Busch stadium is a pitchers park and the wind should be blowing cross field at under 12 mph, so that should not be an issue. 85% of all bets are on the over, but the line keeps creeping in favor of the under. Pinny recently moved to -110 on the under, but legends and bdog still have great under prices of -105 or better if you like this play. Just like last nights game, the market has overreacted to these pitchers most recent poor performances, which gives us solid value on the under. I have this game at 7.4 and its going to take a score of 9 to beat us. With Hamilton hurt, the rangers having to adjust to national league rules and with garcia pitching at home where he is usually at his best, I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**GoggsViggs** · 10-20-11, 02:38 PM

LTA, great job nice night on those double dingers!

**Trivial** · 10-20-11, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/20/11

Play #1

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Great analysis and discussion going on in here from everyone, so keep it up. I am super busy at work, plus I'm working on a possible total play for ncaaf tonight and a possible play on the side in this game, but I will say this about tonights game. Neither pitcher has faced these lineups so we have the unfamiliarity factor in our corner. The ump is a big under guy. Garcia's platoon splits show him to be just as effective against righties as lefties so we shouldn't be concerned about the righty heavy lineup of texas. Lewis has pitched well throughout this years playoffs and last year so he seems capable of handling the pressure. Busch stadium is a pitchers park and the wind should be blowing cross field at under 12 mph, so that should not be an issue. 85% of all bets are on the over, but the line keeps creeping in favor of the under. Pinny recently moved to -110 on the under, but legends and bdog still have great under prices of -105 or better if you like this play. Just like last nights game, the market has overreacted to these pitchers most recent poor performances, which gives us solid value on the under. I have this game at 7.4 and its going to take a score of 9 to beat us. With Hamilton hurt, the rangers having to adjust to national league rules and with garcia pitching at home where he is usually at his best, I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Thanks LTA.

Can you believe it? I got so busy with work yesterday I missed BOTH plays. I'm on this tonight with you brotha. Best of luck to all.

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/20/11

Play #1

Rangers/Cardinals under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Great analysis and discussion going on in here from everyone, so keep it up. I am super busy at work, plus I'm working on a possible total play for ncaaf tonight and a possible play on the side in this game, but I will say this about tonights game. Neither pitcher has faced these lineups so we have the unfamiliarity factor in our corner. The ump is a big under guy. Garcia's platoon splits show him to be just as effective against righties as lefties so we shouldn't be concerned about the righty heavy lineup of texas. Lewis has pitched well throughout this years playoffs and last year so he seems capable of handling the pressure. Busch stadium is a pitchers park and the wind should be blowing cross field at under 12 mph, so that should not be an issue. 85% of all bets are on the over, but the line keeps creeping in favor of the under. Pinny recently moved to -110 on the under, but legends and bdog still have great under prices of -105 or better if you like this play. Just like last nights game, the market has overreacted to these pitchers most recent poor performances, which gives us solid value on the under. I have this game at 7.4 and its going to take a score of 9 to beat us. With Hamilton hurt, the rangers having to adjust to national league rules and with garcia pitching at home where he is usually at his best, I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cardinals ML (+108) 1x (Locked)

Well I missed the drop from +110 as I was writing up my play on the under so I'm going to lock this up now before the humber drops further. Regardless, we are still getting supreme value on this play. I have the Cards at -113 in this game and we are getting +108, so that's over 20 cents in value. I actually want to go bigger, but I won't get greedy (lets see where late money goes and we may add to both plays or parlay them again). Bottom line is that the cards should not be plus money. Garcia is the better pitcher as evidenced by a better WAR, FIP, xFIP, tERA, SIERA and GB/FB. In addition, Garcia had a 2.9 xFIP down the playoff stretch compared to Lewis' 3.6. Plus, Garcia is a dominate home pitcher compared to Lewis on the road. I think a lot of people expect a texas bounceback, but I dont see that hapoening until they return to the warmth of arlington. Until then, I expect the rangers bats to stay cool and for LaRussa to outmanage Washington under NL rules. The price on the cards is too good to pass up, so I am taking the redbirds for 1x now and we may add to both plays later. Good luck.

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 03:17 PM

Really relieved to see you on these two plays my man, as it is where I was leaning myself. Knowing you leaned Texas game 2 originally (I realize it was a cursory/speculative lean) I was hesitant on the side, feel much better about it now. Good luck to all in the thread tonight, lets get that Cream!

**TucsonTom** · 10-20-11, 03:28 PM

I like the picks a lot LTA! Question for anyone, my book has St. Louis at +116. Should I jump on it now or should I wait to see if the line moves in our favor?

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by TucsonTom

I like the picks a lot LTA! Question for anyone, my book has St. Louis at +116. Should I jump on it now or should I wait to see if the line moves in our favor?

I am assuming that is the BoDog # Tom, I have no experience with them. They are roughly 10 cents higher on Texas than any other book atm

. Unless there is something specific about the way they set games I would say that is probably the best number you are going to get...most books are lowering the Cards number atm ..take it for what it's worth...Wish I could get that number that's for sure.

**TucsonTom** · 10-20-11, 03:48 PM

Hey thanks Redscot. It is the Bodog number. I jumped on it at 116 and it dropped 30 seconds later to 115. Thank you for the advice! Also have the under 8 for +105. BOL to everyone tonight!

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Really relieved to see you on these two plays my man, as it is where I was leaning myself. Knowing you leaned Texas game 2 originally (I realize it was a cursory/speculative lean) I was hesitant on the side, feel much better about it now. Good luck to all in the thread tonight, lets get that Cream!

I leaned texas early when they were at +106. Now that they are at -118, that is ridiculously overpriced and the cards are the clear play. Good luck!

**og4667** · 10-20-11, 03:50 PM

great thread and always like the solid writeups. good luck tonight

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 03:55 PM

Early Game 3 numbers Texas - 155 , 9 1/2 u - 115.............Let's see how tonight's game influences that number going forward.

**mdlove3081** · 10-20-11, 05:02 PM

LTA rolling with you again tonight after the big time payout last night

**Jago2008** · 10-20-11, 05:26 PM

I really like the under aswell, Garcia has been great at home. And after last night's debacle, I also think the Cardinals ML is a great pick as Ron Washington might call up Rudy Ruettiger to bat with RISP

tonight.

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 06:47 PM

Just added an NCAAF play for tonight and may add another...good luck!

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p12.html#post11972117

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**JR007** · 10-20-11, 08:22 PM

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 09:20 PM

NCAAF question...need some help.

Anyone else having problems finding a line on Tulsa v. Rice on Saturday? The website for my local who follows Legends lines doesn't have that game on the board for some reason. My other local who follows 5d/Pinny lines has 58.5 for the total. I really want that 58 that Legends is hanging right now. I called customer service and they didn't know why it's not on the board. Anyone else having this problem. WTF.

**Redscot** · 10-20-11, 09:28 PM

No total here on that game either bro, I also couldn't tease tonight's UAB total

When I called my local he said it was off the books.

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 09:53 PM

Way to throw Hamilton a meatball Rhodes...wtf

**BigDan** · 10-20-11, 09:55 PM

1st move TLR has made this postseason i didnt like. the way Hamilton been swinging i think they would have much better served with Motte throwing gas to him up in in...

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

1st move TLR has made this postseason i didnt like. the way Hamilton been swinging i think they would have much better served with Motte throwing gas to him up in in...

Agreed...he can't turn on the ball because of the groin. No need for Rhodes there as I believe Motte's platoon splits don't show an inability to get lefties out. Going to need a rally here to avoid a split.

I have not won one ML play on the home team in their last at bats all year (but have lost quite a few). Now would be a pretty cool time for the gambling gods to pay me back....

**BigDan** · 10-20-11, 10:02 PM

rally time

**Trivial** · 10-20-11, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Agreed...he can't turn on the ball because of the groin. No need for Rhodes there as I believe Motte's platoon splits don't show an inability to get lefties out. Going to need a rally here to avoid a split.

I have not won one ML play on the home team in their last at bats all year (but have lost quite a few). Now would be a pretty cool time for the gambling gods to pay me back....

I am praying to said superior lords.

**Love The Action** · 10-20-11, 10:13 PM

Damn...should've pounded that under when I had the chance...that was a good play on the Cards though. We beat the closer and were up one run going into the ninth inning. Plays don't get any more +ev than that....

**No coincidences** · 10-20-11, 10:14 PM

Why not walk Hamilton to set up the force?