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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #4901
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    Damn...should've pounded that under when I had the chance...that was a good play on the Cards though. We beat the closer and were up one run going into the ninth inning. Plays don't get any more +ev than that....
    who do you think wins the series now?
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #4902
      MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

      418 - 378 = +38.03x

      MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/20/11

      1 - 1 = 0x


      MLB 2011 Playoffs

      17 - 10 = +8.182x

      So close to back to back sweeps, but it wasn't meant to be. Onto the next one...Cards still need to confirm game 3 starter..although it has to be Jackson. Good luck on Game 3. Time to concentrate on football the rest of tonight and tomorrow.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #4903
        Originally posted by Dexter
        who do you think wins the series now?
        I think that seriously puts the Cardinals chances in jeopardy. Texas will have the pitching advantage in games 3 and 4 and, without having run the numbers or looked at the games, I would have to view the Rangers as the likely winner. That puts all the pressure on Carpenter in game 5. If St. Louis wins game 5, they are back in the driver's seat. If not, well, that would not be good.
        Comment
        • MrXYZ
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-11
          • 2342

          #4904
          Thanks LTA, great work as usual. I've been on the totals & pretty much tripled my money!
          Comment
          • Redscot
            SBR MVP
            • 05-16-11
            • 2571

            #4905
            Originally posted by Love The Action
            Damn...should've pounded that under when I had the chance...that was a good play on the Cards though. We beat the closer and were up one run going into the ninth inning. Plays don't get any more +ev than that....
            Under turned out to be a breeze. Can't complain about the side as we knew the game was close to a toss up and went with the value, good call. Have to look at the games but my gut tells me Texas gets on a roll at home. Think we are due for the offenses to show up too. Looking forward to your weekend NCAA and NFL bud, keep up the good work.
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #4906
              Originally posted by Redscot
              Under turned out to be a breeze. Can't complain about the side as we knew the game was close to a toss up and went with the value, good call. Have to look at the games but my gut tells me Texas gets on a roll at home. Think we are due for the offenses to show up too. Looking forward to your weekend NCAA and NFL bud, keep up the good work.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #4907
                What up, game 3! What is everyone playing? This is a tough one....
                Comment
                • pacocn
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-05-10
                  • 12934

                  #4908
                  Hey lta i am capping it as we speak, and leaning on
                  the Over
                  Comment
                  • pacocn
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-05-10
                    • 12934

                    #4909
                    Lta, I am on the over 9.5 i am not going to
                    play a side on this one.
                    Comment
                    • fitguy67
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-13-11
                      • 5082

                      #4910
                      i'll sit this one out...pitching edge to Texas (particular in the GroundBall vs. FlyBall departments) not really enough to justify Tex -180ish, or even Tex-1 -130ish lines i see at pinny...and i'm wary of playing a total on this one...best flat out "value" lies with STL moneyline as the public is "situational-angle" (ie. betting on this game as if it's the 3rd frame in an already-finalized comic strip that is being released one day a time) infatuated...and tends to crowd-ride the afterglow of the previous-game's winner...if STL gets this next one look for ye' ole line flip-flop yet again
                      Last edited by fitguy67; 10-22-11, 09:25 AM.
                      Comment
                      • fitguy67
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-13-11
                        • 5082

                        #4911
                        damn, the +169 equates to 1/(2.69)=just 37% implied probability of STL winning! STL could very well lose, but if this game took place simultaneously on 1000 universes, I'd say STL would win more than 370 'em...

                        talked myself into a "what the hell" single-unit on STL cuz taking a bet like this is money over time, whatever happens on this specific game3-universe
                        Last edited by fitguy67; 10-22-11, 09:44 AM.
                        Comment
                        • 815Sox
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-13-10
                          • 1078

                          #4912
                          Really tough game, I think the Rangers win but the question is by how much. I believe that Texas is a much hitter friendly park.
                          Comment
                          • fitguy67
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-13-11
                            • 5082

                            #4913
                            Sox, I agree...i lean TEX to win the game...but given the inflated odds it's not a good bet...going with the undervalued STL dog is
                            Comment
                            • mt675826
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 03-14-11
                              • 30

                              #4914
                              Really tough call, but Rangers are way overpriced. I'll probably go with the Cards for the potential value and the under. 9.5 is pretty high and despite the park, rangers at home etc., I still think it will be a highly defensive game. The one thing I know for sure is it will be a lot of fun to watch.
                              Comment
                              • Donnie Brasco
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-04-11
                                • 862

                                #4915
                                I have to agree with over backers. I think the move from cold pitcher friendly park to arlington, as well as adding dh to lineup equals runs gallore. The pitchers won the first two battles, but these lineups cant be held down forever. What is the wind doing. I am on the golf course. Beautiful 70 deg day in south louisiana! Good luck!
                                Comment
                                • Redscot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-16-11
                                  • 2571

                                  #4916
                                  Originally posted by Donnie Brasco
                                  I have to agree with over backers. I think the move from cold pitcher friendly park to arlington, as well as adding dh to lineup equals runs gallore. The pitchers won the first two battles, but these lineups cant be held down forever. What is the wind doing. I am on the golf course. Beautiful 70 deg day in south louisiana! Good luck!
                                  I tend to agree Donnie. Gonna wait and see how we do in NCAA and then have another look at the baseball game tonight. Enjoy the weather and your morning on the course!
                                  Comment
                                  • pacocn
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-05-10
                                    • 12934

                                    #4917
                                    Red and Donnie the wind doesn't seem to be a factor 5 mph
                                    Comment
                                    • pacocn
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 07-05-10
                                      • 12934

                                      #4918
                                      Ump has a 62 % strike rate
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #4919
                                        I still have more work to do on this game but generally agree with Fitguy and MT...value lies in the Cardinals as the Rangers are way overpriced. With that said, as we all know, the value play isn't always the play that cashes. Sometimes, the best play is no play. I am leaning to a pass on the side.

                                        I also lean to the over. However, 9.5 is an awfully big total. My model has 9.8. That's not a whole lot of value where Josh Hamilton is not playing thereby neutralizing a big factor in favor of the over. I was actually contemplating a rare TT play on the Rangers over 5, but it's juiced up to -125 and that's too much where Hamilton is out.

                                        I will probably put an action parlay in on this one, but will probably pass as far as official plays. I will post my final decision after looking at a few more things. Good luck to everyone
                                        Comment
                                        • Redscot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-16-11
                                          • 2571

                                          #4920
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          I still have more work to do on this game but generally agree with Fitguy and MT...value lies in the Cardinals as the Rangers are way overpriced. With that said, as we all know, the value play isn't always the play that cashes. Sometimes, the best play is no play. I am leaning to a pass on the side.

                                          I also lean to the over. However, 9.5 is an awfully big total. My model has 9.8. That's not a whole lot of value where Josh Hamilton is not playing thereby neutralizing a big factor in favor of the over. I was actually contemplating a rare TT play on the Rangers over 5, but it's juiced up to -125 and that's too much where Hamilton is out.

                                          I will probably put an action parlay in on this one, but will probably pass as far as official plays. I will post my final decision after looking at a few more things. Good luck to everyone
                                          Sound reasoning . I am not impelled to play this one...perhaps an action parlay for the junkie in me.

                                          Comment
                                          • 815Sox
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-13-10
                                            • 1078

                                            #4921
                                            Just gonna pass on that one, going to an AHL (Icehogs (blackhawks) v Wolves (canucks), Rockford vs Chicago!!!) game so I am not gonna be able to watch it.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #4922
                                              Might make a live play on the Rangers...I now have access to live wagering on select games through one of my locals. I just saw this recently and have been tracking it. I could have gotten Rangers -110 at the end of the third inning, but missed locking it in before the commercial changed. If I make a live play, it won't be for the records but I will post it. GL
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #4923
                                                Horrible defense by the Rangers....looks like I won't be making that live Rangers play after all
                                                Comment
                                                • latinrus
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-01-10
                                                  • 11188

                                                  #4924
                                                  Unreal how they choke.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #4925
                                                    Just tried to take Rangers +215 at the end of the fifth inning but it wouldn't go through wtf...was going to put a 0.50x on it...I think it was too closer to the start of the seventh to go through. I think the Rangers come back here..the crowd is back into it. If no one scores in the sixth, I will play them at the end of of this inning and it should be better odds
                                                    Comment
                                                    • fitguy67
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-13-11
                                                      • 5082

                                                      #4926
                                                      looks like this is one of the more than 370 universes (out of the 1000 where game 3 was being played last night)...where the +169 Cards won....Now we also get to watch the lines flip-flop as the hordes overplay the impact of the most-recent game...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • toddorts
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 09-30-11
                                                        • 882

                                                        #4927
                                                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                        Now we also get to watch the lines flip-flop as the hordes overplay the impact of the most-recent game...
                                                        You would think so, but I just looked at 5Dimes, and they've got the game Sunday at +170 again for the Cards. At those odds, I'll take them again. Certainly worked well for me today.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #4928
                                                          i'll be with ya' toddorts on that one...in my "super chicken"-sized unit way...gonna lock it in now...no way either of these two evenly-matched teams has just a 37% chance to win implied by such odds
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #4929
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            Just tried to take Rangers +215 at the end of the fifth inning but it wouldn't go through wtf...was going to put a 0.50x on it...I think it was too closer to the start of the seventh to go through. I think the Rangers come back here..the crowd is back into it. If no one scores in the sixth, I will play them at the end of of this inning and it should be better odds
                                                            Whoa...sneaked by not taking that live line...sort of feels like a win
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #4930
                                                              MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/23/11

                                                              Play #1

                                                              Cardinals/Rangers under (10)(-115) 1x (Locked)

                                                              I'm going to take a shot with the under in this spot. My model has 9.1 and it's going to take a final score of 11 to lose. After they just exploded for 23 runs on Saturday, I think the over bettors get buried on Sunday night. Bottom line is that Pujols is not hitting three home runs again and a lot of the poor fielding and missed calls at first base which extended innings should not happen two night in a row. Most books are still at 9.5, so I had to jump on this off-market number while I had the chance. I expect all the books to follow to 10 sometime tomorrow, but I think late money on the under will drop it back down to 9.5 where it will close. Although Jackson has gotten rocked by the Rangers lineup in the past, this is a whole new situation and day. Jackson also got rocked last time out against the Brewers which is one of the reasons we're getting so much value on this play. However, one you look at some of the advanced stats, it becomes clear he might just have a bit of an advantage and all we need out of him is a quality start. Jackson's splits show a pitcher with better results over his career and this season against right handed hitters. We all know Texas is predominately right handed, with its main left handed thread, Josh Hamilton, unable to turn on the ball with any authority because of an injured groin. That only leaves Murphy as the main left handed weapon. He's a fine player, but I'll take my chances. Jackson's seasonal numbers are solid despite jumping leagues via trade. Despite these travels, Jackson still managed a WAR of 3.8, FIP of 3.5, xFIP of 3.7, tERA just over 4 and SIERA right at 4. Even more important for a game in Texas, however, is Jackson's ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark as evidenced by a GB/FB of 1.4, a GB% of 44%, a HR/9 of .72 and HR/FB of 8.2%. Jackson's BABIP of .330 tells me he hasn't exactly been the most lucky guy in the world and his LOB% is pretty average at 73.9%. What's really impressive, however, is that despite pitching in tough situations, Jackson has managed a high leverage xFIP of 2.21 and FIP of 1.4 with a 3.3 FIP and xFIP with runners in scoring position. These are all solid numbers which lead me to believe he can limit the Rangers on Sunday. On the other side, we have another guy who has gotten knocked around recently and should be fresh for this game. Both pitchers have had ample rest between starts and both threw under 70 pitches in their last start. Therefore, both arms should be ready to fire. Holland also has solid numbers this year with a WAR of 3.6, FIP of 3.9, xFIP of 3.7, tERA of 4.5 and SIERA of 3.8. Holland better's Jackson's K% by 2 points with a 19.2%, but he also has the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and on the ground with a GB/FB of 1.38 and HR/9 of 1. Holland's high leverage numbers are pretty horrid, but his numbers against righties are not as bad as one might think with a 3.8 xFIP. With the Cardinals and Ranger bullpen relatively rested, even after having to pick up some innings on Saturday, I think we're in good shape to keep the final at 9 runs or under. As you know, 9 is a pretty important key number in MLB totals right behind 7. I would not be surprised to see this one end with a 5-3 or 5-4 final. This game provides a nice public fade opportunity because everyone and their moms will be on the over tomorrow. However, the wind tunnel effect should not be in place with the wind projected to be blowing in from center at about 7 mph which makes it a non-factor. Plus, the ump is Ron Kulpa an under leaning ump with a strike rate of 64.1%. Based on the foregoing, I think we have enough in play here to ride the under at a great number. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                              Last edited by Love The Action; 10-23-11, 02:21 AM.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Trivial
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-22-09
                                                                • 1328

                                                                #4931
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/23/11

                                                                Play #1

                                                                Cardinals/Rangers under (10)(-115) 1x (Locked)

                                                                I'm going to take a shot with the under in this spot. My model has 9.1 and it's going to take a final score of 11 to lose. After they just exploded for 23 runs on Saturday, I think the over bettors get buried on Sunday night. Bottom line is that Pujols is not hitting three home runs again and a lot of the poor fielding and missed calls at first base which extended innings should not happen two night in a row. Most books are still at 9.5, so I had to jump on this off-market number while I had the chance. I expect all the books to follow to 10 sometime tomorrow, but I think late money on the under will drop it back down to 9.5 where it will close. Although Jackson has gotten rocked by the Rangers lineup in the past, this is a whole new situation and day. Jackson also got rocked last time out against the Brewers which is one of the reasons we're getting so much value on this play. However, one you look at some of the advanced stats, it becomes clear he might just have a bit of an advantage and all we need out of him is a quality start. Jackson's splits show a pitcher with better results over his career and this season against right handed hitters. We all know Texas is predominately right handed, with its main left handed thread, Josh Hamilton, unable to turn on the ball with any authority because of an injured groin. That only leaves Murphy as the main left handed weapon. He's a fine player, but I'll take my chances. Jackson's seasonal numbers are solid despite jumping leagues via trade. Despite these travels, Jackson still managed a WAR of 3.8, FIP of 3.5, xFIP of 3.7, tERA just over 4 and SIERA right at 4. Even more important for a game in Texas, however, is Jackson's ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark as evidenced by a GB/FB of 1.4, a GB% of 44%, a HR/9 of .72 and HR/FB of 8.2%. Jackson's BABIP of .330 tells me he hasn't exactly been the most lucky guy in the world and his LOB% is pretty average at 73.9%. What's really impressive, however, is that despite pitching in tough situations, Jackson has managed a high leverage xFIP of 2.21 and FIP of 1.4 with a 3.3 FIP and xFIP with runners in scoring position. These are all solid numbers which lead me to believe he can limit the Rangers on Sunday. On the other side, we have another guy who has gotten knocked around recently and should be fresh for this game. Both pitchers have had ample rest between starts and both threw under 70 pitches in their last start. Therefore, both arms should be ready to fire. Holland also has solid numbers this year with a WAR of 3.6, FIP of 3.9, xFIP of 3.7, tERA of 4.5 and SIERA of 3.8. Holland better's Jackson's K% by 2 points with a 19.2%, but he also has the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and on the ground with a GB/FB of 1.38 and HR/9 of 1. Holland's high leverage numbers are pretty horrid, but his numbers against righties are not as bad as one might think with a 3.8 xFIP. With the Cardinals and Ranger bullpen relatively rested, even after having to pick up some innings on Saturday, I think we're in good shape to keep the final at 9 runs or under. As you know, 9 is a pretty important key number in MLB totals right behind 7. I would not be surprised to see this one end with a 5-3 or 5-4 final. This game provides a nice public fade opportunity because everyone and their moms will be on the over tomorrow. However, the wind tunnel effect should not be in place with the wind projected to be blowing in from center at about 7 mph which makes it a non-factor. Plus, the ump is Ron Kulpa an under leaning ump with a strike rate of 64.1%. Based on the foregoing, I think we have enough in play here to ride the under at a great number. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                                Thanks LTA. I am tailing you all the way on this one - no questions asked.

                                                                FYI - 5 Dimes has UNDER 10 (-115) right now as an alternate line, which is what I took.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • fitguy67
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                                  • 5082

                                                                  #4932
                                                                  I'm on the under for all the reasons outlined above...and on STL +165 for same reason as yesterday...that they've a far better chance to win than the 37.74% implied by the odds...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #4933
                                                                    Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                                    I'm on the under for all the reasons outlined above...and on STL +165 for same reason as yesterday...that they've a far better chance to win than the 37.74% implied by the odds...
                                                                    You are absolutely right...the Rangers price is way overpriced. Still debating a play on the side....can the Rangers really lose two straight at home and go down 3-1? Good luck Mr. Fit...you are a scholar and gentleman
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Love The Action
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                                      • 10952

                                                                      #4934
                                                                      Total going up to 10 everywhere just like I thought....let's see if it closes back at 9.5 as I predicted as well. Let's hope so!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Redscot
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-16-11
                                                                        • 2571

                                                                        #4935
                                                                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                                        I'm on the under for all the reasons outlined above...and on STL +165 for same reason as yesterday...that they've a far better chance to win than the 37.74% implied by the odds...
                                                                        You nailed it yesterday Fitguy, and I like your reasoning on it today...it is the only play I would make on the side. No way with the way these two teams match up at this stage I pay 170+ juice. I agree with LTA here on the under, takes 11 runs for us to lose here....may parlay it small with the Cards as well.

                                                                        Comment
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