Guys, i was reading about HR/FB regressing towards average, but what about Burnett? Ssince going to the Blue Jays he had 11.8, 17.7, 9.6, 10.8, 11.6 and 17.0%.
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Ballparks can have an influence on the HR/FB rate as well, Yankee is prone to the long ball. HR/FB rates also tend to fluctuate year to year. Take a look at Burnett's xfip. That stat puts all pitchers HR/FB % at the league mean and recalculates there era as such hence his 3.86 xfip and 5.15 era.
As always stats can only tell you so much. Burnett has 3 straight years where his HR/FB % is above league average and it's climbing. Maybe the xfip is being to gentle with him. Also, digging deeper he has given up as many HR's % wise on the road as at home in his tenure with the Yanks.
GL digging around, there is so much info available to us now it is ridiculous.
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Anyone likes the Under 9 Zona/Brewers ? I think this might be a very good bet. On the ML I like the Rays and the Dbacks. Yanks/Detroit and Cards/Phillies are not predictable in my opinion and could go either way.Comment -
MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/4/11
Play #1
Phillies/Cards under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)
Really busy...talk to you guys later....good luck.Comment -
My thought process was this: (please point any flaws Ballparks can have an influence on the HR/FB rate as well, Yankee is prone to the long ball. HR/FB rates also tend to fluctuate year to year. Take a look at Burnett's xfip. That stat puts all pitchers HR/FB % at the league mean and recalculates there era as such hence his 3.86 xfip and 5.15 era.
As always stats can only tell you so much. Burnett has 3 straight years where his HR/FB % is above league average and it's climbing. Maybe the xfip is being to gentle with him. Also, digging deeper he has given up as many HR's % wise on the road as at home in his tenure with the Yanks.
GL digging around, there is so much info available to us now it is ridiculous.
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AJ Burnett ERA is 5.15, but his xFIP is 3.86. A look at the HR/FB ratio shows that it is at 17%, way above average, explaining the difference between ERA and xFIP.
Then I tried to discover why his HR/FB was so high. I thought it was because of Yankees ballpark, but here is his HR/FB ratio since joining the Yankees:
Home: 10.9, 10.6, 16.8
Away: 10.7, 12.4, 17.4
his aways stats are WORSE than his home stats, so ballpark doesnt explain it.
So maybe his HR/FB ratio will always be higher and xFIP doesnt "work" for him, since it uses league average HR/FB.Comment -
Seems like sound reasoning to me. That's how I read it as well. X-fip is good,but it is always good to dig deeper. I trust Siera the most for any single pitcher evaluator.My thought process was this: (please point any flaws)
AJ Burnett ERA is 5.15, but his xFIP is 3.86. A look at the HR/FB ratio shows that it is at 17%, way above average, explaining the difference between ERA and xFIP.
Then I tried to discover why his HR/FB was so high. I thought it was because of Yankees ballpark, but here is his HR/FB ratio since joining the Yankees:
Home: 10.9, 10.6, 16.8
Away: 10.7, 12.4, 17.4
his aways stats are WORSE than his home stats, so ballpark doesnt explain it.
So maybe his HR/FB ratio will always be higher and xFIP doesnt "work" for him, since it uses league average HR/FB.
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. Was just capping this one LTA. Since you are short on time I'll post some thoughts.
This game should provide the pitchers with an early shadow's advantage, which hopefully gets them into a nice rhythm. Hamels is top 5 NL this year in his pitching peripherals and Garcia is top 10. Both have had success against the opposing lineups, Layne (assume he is ump)has a big juicy strike zone, and they both have had a good experience with Layne too. Hamels has great peripherals against both LHB and RHB, Garcia has been dominant at home traditionally. Getting Pence has helped the Phils improve against LHP, but they are still susceptible.
Hamels tends to get you a little deeper into the game so Cards pen needs to be ready to step in and get the job done. They have actually been very solid over the last month.
Looking forward to the rest of your card my man
Last edited by Redscot; 10-04-11, 07:31 AM.Comment -
Looks like roof will be open at Chase field.Comment -
Some advanced batting stats weighing equally home/away, vs. LHP/RHP, and last 30 days.
Phillies: Woba = .308, Wrc+ = 91, OPS = .698
Cardinals: Woba = .335, Wrc+ = 121, OPS = .771
Brewers: Woba = .326, Wrc+ = 105, OPS = .747
D-Backs: Woba = .334, Wrc+ = 104, OPS = .766
Rangers: Woba = .352, Wrc+ = 116, OPS = .812
Rays: Woba = .322, Wrc+ = 105, OPS = .725
Yanks: Woba = .327, Wrc+ = 101, OPS = .747
Tigers Woba = .354, Wrc+ = 121, OPS = .820
Take em for what they're worth. Had some time on my hands
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Hi folks. Really scared about the board today. Scared about phil/stl under. Been burned twice recently on that play although it is still the correct play. Thinking of Texas again. Thoughts?Comment -
Thanks!! Good stuff...Phillies better, but still not great against lefties...Some advanced batting stats weighing equally home/away, vs. LHP/RHP, and last 30 days.
Phillies: Woba = .308, Wrc+ = 91, OPS = .698
Cardinals: Woba = .335, Wrc+ = 121, OPS = .771
Brewers: Woba = .326, Wrc+ = 105, OPS = .747
D-Backs: Woba = .334, Wrc+ = 104, OPS = .766
Rangers: Woba = .352, Wrc+ = 116, OPS = .812
Rays: Woba = .322, Wrc+ = 105, OPS = .725
Yanks: Woba = .327, Wrc+ = 101, OPS = .747
Tigers Woba = .354, Wrc+ = 121, OPS = .820
Take em for what they're worth. Had some time on my hands
I saw a lot of guys are taking the rangers today. Certainly, that is the logical choice with harrison having better advanced stats than hell boy. However, I'm just not sold quite yet. My problem is that the rangers play right into hellicksons strength. Hellickson is a full two runs better in xFIP against righties than lefties and the rangers are only going to have at most three lefthanded bats in their lineup today. In addition, harrison has not pitched well against tb in the past and the rays are a much better hitting team against lefties as opposed to righties. Interesting game...need to think about it more.
Thanks for sharing your hard work
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big line movement on the yankees, pinny opened the Tigers at -115 I think and its already down to -102, with the Yankees favorite at -104Comment -
Always appreciate the hard work you do everyone.Comment -
What do you guys think about the tex vs tb today?
The line opened at 8 and is at 8.5 now juicing the under (-120)
Looking at taking the under here.Last edited by investing4us; 10-04-11, 10:01 AM.Comment -
Good stuff. Dont forget to look at his other stats which can historically correlate to a higher hr frequency. Also, remember that the visiting ballparks within his division are all launching pads except for tb and he came to the yanks from the national league. GLMy thought process was this: (please point any flaws)
AJ Burnett ERA is 5.15, but his xFIP is 3.86. A look at the HR/FB ratio shows that it is at 17%, way above average, explaining the difference between ERA and xFIP.
Then I tried to discover why his HR/FB was so high. I thought it was because of Yankees ballpark, but here is his HR/FB ratio since joining the Yankees:
Home: 10.9, 10.6, 16.8
Away: 10.7, 12.4, 17.4
his aways stats are WORSE than his home stats, so ballpark doesnt explain it.
So maybe his HR/FB ratio will always be higher and xFIP doesnt "work" for him, since it uses league average HR/FB.Comment -
Neither one of these guys could crack an egg with their Fastball's. Marcum can miss some bats while Collmenter has a hard time putting anyone away, especially LHB's. As you pointed out, roof open, both flyball pitchers.......Collmenter had back to back starts against Mil in July where he shut them out for 14 innings BUT there was no Braun and Milwaukee put up a babip of .167 in those games. Joe West is the ump I think
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Last edited by Redscot; 10-04-11, 10:24 AM.Comment -
Yeah, this one is tough. Harrison dwarfs Hellickson's peripherals (Hell boy has to be considered one of the luckier pitchers this year advanced stats wise), BUT Rays do hit LHP's better and Harrison's K% drops agood deal against RHB's (you know Maddon will be stacking RHB's). Hellickson really struggles putting LHB's away as you stated but is much better against the RHB's. Hellickson is a pretty cool customer and I don't think the moment will be too big for him, plus it's been 9 starts since he has given up more than 3 runs in a game.Thanks!! Good stuff...Phillies better, but still not great against lefties...
I saw a lot of guys are taking the rangers today. Certainly, that is the logical choice with harrison having better advanced stats than hell boy. However, I'm just not sold quite yet. My problem is that the rangers play right into hellicksons strength. Hellickson is a full two runs better in xFIP against righties than lefties and the rangers are only going to have at most three lefthanded bats in their lineup today. In addition, harrison has not pitched well against tb in the past and the rays are a much better hitting team against lefties as opposed to righties. Interesting game...need to think about it more.
Thanks for sharing your hard workComment -
Under getting juiced in St. LouisComment -
Wind blowing out at 16 mph...Neither one of these guys could crack an egg with their Fastball's. Marcum can miss some bats while Collmenter has a hard time putting anyone away, especially LHB's. As you pointed out, roof open, both flyball pitchers.......Collmenter had back to back starts against Mil in July where he shut them out for 14 innings BUT there was no Braun and Milwaukee put up a babip of .167 in those games. Joe West is the ump I think.Comment -
Lta, Redscott,
What do you guys like on the totals in the tb game?Comment -
Just want to say thanks to LTA, redscot and all the contributors to this thread. U guys are amazing! I am new to this sabermetrics business, and u guys are fountains of knowledge. I get overwhelmed just looking at fangraphs. Good luck to all of you, i will be tailing! Also check out lsu this weekend, they will destroy a brantley-less florida!Comment -
I'd wait on LTA's opinion he has model's that he puts together that get further in depth than I.
Since you asked though, as mentioned above Hellickson is a different pitcher against RHB's than LHB's and he will only be seeing 3 LHB's. He is also better at home and hasn't given up more than 3 runs in 9 starts (he should keep Tampa in it.) Harrison gets a lot of GB's and keeps the ball in the park, a very steady pitcher. My gut says this game should be in the 6 range when the starters come out, then it's on the pens, who have performed well. Gun to my head I would take the under, but I will probably be passing on this game altogether.Last edited by Redscot; 10-04-11, 11:12 AM.Comment -
Rangers at -102. Am i really this goodComment -
Here's an interesting stat, nothing to do with betting, just an observation.
A.J. Burnett, what an enigma. Great "stuff". . So Burnett has a wicked curve in his arsenal which he uses 30% of the time on the mound. Naturally, when a pitcher gets down in the count he goes more fastball, less off speed, well Burnett is just ridiculous. on counts 2-0,3-0,3-1 he uses his curve 1 % of the time! When he is ahead of the count you can expect it 50% +. That is F-ing ridiculous, can't believe they haven't corrected this tendency a tad at least. He's also good for a wild pitch a game
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