LTA's MLB Plays

**Allure** · 10-03-11, 06:52 PM

Why let Ogando pitch an easy inning if Oliver is ready to lose the game?

For God's sake, why is the job of a baseball manager? Serious question.

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Pretty sure we're all on the Tigers round these parts cowboy...

Yes sir padner!

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I wouldn't mind Dave Martinez...I think Kenny really wants Terry Francona though.

I would like Francona or Martinez. KW never shows his card, and actually likes to leak misinfo. Many are saying Francona is "too expensive" for the Sox, but I do not really think that is the case.

As for Tigers and Yanks, I am on the under, still unsure on the moneyline. The thing that is causing me to pause is CC's good record on short rest and his experience, but then you counter that with Verlander at home. 5dimes still has the Tigers at -120 right now which equals no play for me. If it drops down more I will probably bite. I just want this under to hold at TB. This is big inning right here, Mike Adams is pretty dang good so I am feeling confident.

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 07:06 PM

As soon as I type that

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

I would like Francona or Martinez. KW never shows his card, and actually likes to leak misinfo. Many are saying Francona is "too expensive" for the Sox, but I do not really think that is the case.

As for Tigers and Yanks, I am on the under, still unsure on the moneyline. The thing that is causing me to pause is CC's good record on short rest and his experience, but then you counter that with Verlander at home. 5dimes still has the Tigers at -120 right now which equals no play for me. If it drops down more I will probably bite. I just want this under to hold at TB. This is big inning right here, Mike Adams is pretty dang good so I am feeling confident.

Jerry and the Sox will spend money if they think it's worth it...

I like that under tonight...thinking about adding it too.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 07:12 PM

Absolute torture right now

. Dios mio! I thought Lewis was the key to this under!

I ended up taking the Tigers +123 R/L -1 as my local was real stingy on the m/l. Also on the under.

This first game is taking a lot out of me atm though

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Absolute torture right now

. Dios mio! I thought Lewis was the key to this under!

I ended up taking the Tigers +123 R/L -1 as my local was real stingy on the m/l. Also on the under.

This first game is taking a lot out of me atm though

Yeah...I'm done with all that after this weekend of heartbreakers. I'm like numb and emotionless now. Ahhh...back to normal

**NeverWrong** · 10-03-11, 07:23 PM

Is this a more appropriate name?

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by NeverWrong

Is this a more appropriate name?

, the prodigal son has returned. Be gentle with me I destroyed the closer today. Need some $ now.

**NeverWrong** · 10-03-11, 07:27 PM

I wound up having my biggest ML and biggest totals bets of the year the last week. Bumgarner in LA against Kuroda that I got at open of +104, it closed I think around -130 and the giants lost. The other was a bet on the over, 1st 5 over, and team total over of Matusz' last start against the Tigers which won easily.

No coincidences, terrible bet on the giants huh? It was actually one of my top 5 bets of the year

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/3/11

Play #1

Rangers/Rays under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Even though my model has this one at 8, I think we have nice value at 8 with juice at -105 so I jumped on it for our first play today. If you substitute Lewis' road splits instead of his overall stats, I would have this closer to the 7.4 range. With a total at 8 at very little juice, I like this under when you factor in the Trop effect and its ability to limit HR's (which as Redscot pointed out above has been a problem for Lewis). Lewis has a solid history against TB in a small sample and TB is not the best team in the world against right handed hitters. You have 90% of all bets on the over and it would not surprise me to see a final score which ends in 7 to burn all those tickets. Dale Scott is the ump and he can go either way judging by his lifetime numbers. He has a strike rate in the 62.5% range, so I don't see him as being a detriment to this play. I see this one just squeaking under the total of 8, so I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tigers ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

This is a great price for Verlander at home, where is he is even better than on the road. Comerica is a pretty solid pitchers park, which is also the reason I lean to the under as well. Other than one inning a few days ago, both pitchers are rested and ready to go. As was mentioned earlier, the three days rest for these guys should not go the level of fatigue like it might have for Greinke and Carpenter last night. However, this play is about the Tigers. I was on Verlander at plus odds and I'll take a shot at him at a great home price of -117. CC may actually be a bit rusty because of his lack of work and that would only aid the Tigers if CC can't find the strike zone. With the Tigers having a comparable offense to that of the Yankees and what has been a statistically better bullpen over the last month, I think the home advantage might help put the Tigers over the top. CC has struggle at Comerica in a small sample and Verlander has limited the Yankees dangerous lefties in the past. I think we see the same tonight and I'm rolling with the Tigers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Yankees/Tigers under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Pinny started to juice the under, so I'm getting on board now at -105 before my book shifts. At the end of the day, despite the strength of these lineups, the under is always a high possibility. Again, the majority of all bets are on the over and we had some late money come in on the under and I have to agree. Both pitchers are 10 mlb guys (probably top 5) and the weather is cool and conducive to the under. The wind is blowing out, but right now it's only at 5mph so that is pretty meaningless. The ump should not really play a factor. I like the Tigers to win in a game that stays under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**BiffTFinancial** · 10-03-11, 07:29 PM

with you on the Tigers. BOL, LTA.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by NeverWrong

Is this a more appropriate name?

I like it better

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

with you on the Tigers. BOL, LTA.

Good luck Biff!

**BennyFang** · 10-03-11, 07:33 PM

With you on both tonight....and rather large. Let's get it!

**BiffTFinancial** · 10-03-11, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by NeverWrong

Is this a more appropriate name?

what's the SP batting advantage in the next NL games?

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by BennyFang

With you on both tonight....and rather large. Let's get it!

Not the best start Benny, but I've seen crazier things happen. How about a 3-2 Tigers win! Good luck

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Not the best start Benny, but I've seen crazier things happen. Good luck

What is this de ja vous all over again? Wasn't watching the 1st so can't comment if it is a normal dominant pitcher having his bad 1st inning, or if he looks tired.

**Krazymojo** · 10-03-11, 07:53 PM

.......lets at least hit the under plz

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 08:02 PM

Geez that was close (TB/Rangers game). .. Not a good start in the other.

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Geez that was close

Indeed. For the under and my Rangers bet. I regret now not taking the under.

**Love The Action** · 10-03-11, 08:06 PM

Time to start talking about tomorrows games...

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Time to start talking about tomorrows games...

Indeed.

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 08:16 PM

CC is all over the damn place.

**guil0000** · 10-03-11, 08:23 PM

Milwaukee seems like a good price with Marcum going against the rookie Collmenter

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Indeed. For the under and my Rangers bet. I regret now not taking the under.

No you don't, that was hell. I'm spent

. Gonna dig inside the numbers tomorrow. BOL to all tonight

**NeverWrong** · 10-03-11, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Time to start talking about tomorrows games...

bet the mortgage on rangers +107? holy god is that line off

**guil0000** · 10-03-11, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by NeverWrong

bet the mortgage on rangers +107? holy god is that line off

Already on it that line should move our way

**Trivial** · 10-03-11, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

No you don't, that was hell. I'm spent

. Gonna dig inside the numbers tomorrow. BOL to all tonight

LOL. Ya. The ML was stressful enough. True.

**Redscot** · 10-03-11, 09:08 PM

Well, since I am still stumbling around might as well post first impressions for conversation sake. I like Tampa and Zona tomorrow, and Cards over 7. Those are totally off the cuff opinions, no analysis done whatsoever.

Damn Verlander's 1st inning was a bitch, he has really settled in...........

**italianbandit** · 10-03-11, 09:24 PM

NeverWrong is pretty good...

**italianbandit** · 10-03-11, 09:28 PM

I like the Phillies at -132,

**815Sox** · 10-03-11, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by NeverWrong

bet the mortgage on rangers +107? holy god is that line off

I like the Rangers tomorrow and jumped on that myself.

**BennyFang** · 10-03-11, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Not the best start Benny, but I've seen crazier things happen. How about a 3-2 Tigers win! Good luck

For a while, I thought you had made the call. Oh well, take a split and look to tomorrow.

**Krazymojo** · 10-04-11, 12:58 AM

like the cards and under tomorrow