LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

I think I need to steer away from unders even though the under 8 is logical tonight. Going with Texas as my only play in all sports tonight.

Good luck

[Trivial]

GL man, on it with ya

Thanks GL To you too.

[Trivial]

Good luck

Good luck to you as well LTA. :-)

[Love The Action]

I actually grabbed Texas early today at +120. Still, I am more of an action junkie than you, not that I feel that strongly about it. The subsequent line movement has me feeling better about it though. Since my cards are on the table I also played Det/Yank under 7 even. Am probably going to take the under in Tampa, waiting to see how far it goes. Am probably gonna go -1 RL on Detroit . I think Verlander dominates tonight
4-1 type game (the rest factor is a wild card here though)

I like Verlander tonight as well. I also lean to the under, but those lineups make it hard to take an under at 7. I will probably play Verlander though, but I'm going to wait for -120 or better. The Yankees always get a lot of support as dogs, so hopefully some of that money gives us some more value on the Tigers.

[815Sox]

Yeah...you know Maddon gets the daily sabermetric report on each pitcher. I think he uses advanced stats more than any other manager...

I totally agree. I think that and the fact that TB was so bad for so long and got so many good drafts is the reason they are where they are. What is even more interesting is that the Rays lost lots of players coming into this year and are still in the playoffs. The Red Sox played a big part, but being the wild card is just winning your division.

Dave Martinez is being looked at as a favorite for the White Sox managerial job. I wouldn't mind that at all, cannot ask for a better teacher IMO and Maddon signs off on him.

As for the Yanks/Tigers under, I wouldn't take it where it is at now. Last night the value was better so I thought it was worth a shot.

[Redscot]

I like Verlander tonight as well. I also lean to the under, but those lineups make it hard to take an under at 7. I will probably play Verlander though, but I'm going to wait for -120 or better. The Yankees always get a lot of support as dogs, so hopefully some of that money gives us some more value on the Tigers.

Yup, haven't locked that one in yet counting on the Yankee money. I know, the 7 feels like walking a tightrope with those lineups.

BTW, you think the Tampa total has reached its peak?

[Love The Action]

Yup, haven't locked that one in yet counting on the Yankee money. I know, the 7 feels like walking a tightrope with those lineups.

BTW, you think the Tampa total has reached its peak?

Yeah, I don't see you getting better than (8)(-105) on the under. That's why I locked it in now. Although, if you have Bodog you can get +100 on the under. Everyone else is at -110 or -105ish. I think -105 is solid value on the under 8 considering the game is in TB.

[Redscot]

Yeah, I don't see you getting better than (8)(-105) on the under. That's why I locked it in now. Although, if you have Bodog you can get +100 on the under. Everyone else is at -110 or -105ish. I think -105 is solid value on the under 8 considering the game is in TB.

Both pitchers have done well with Scott behind the plate and in small sample size against respective lineups.

[Trivial]

And there you have it. Some books are minus money for Texas already. LTA. What do you mean by "public" money?

[supr_villn]

TEX unders is the play
& the play will not change
'cuz the play never ever changes ..

GOOD
NITE

[Love The Action]

And there you have it. Some books are minus money for Texas already. LTA. What do you mean by "public" money?

Where did I use "public"...depends on context. But I'm not into public versus sharp stuff....

[Love The Action]

Yesterday, there was huge movement on the cards under which ended up losing. Line movement isn't always right. All this movement on texas and the over could be mistaken.

[Love The Action]

Its so hard not taking Price at -117 at home. If I lay off and tb wins, I will be kicking myself. This is great price....no metaphor intended.

[supr_villn]

the lines are not ever "right" (or wrong) ,,
the lines are designed strictly 2 trick u ..
that or inhibit u from taking advantage

the more u know about a gm (MLB NHL etc)
the less u know about betting that sport ..

TEX unders 2nite
TEX series .. thinking in 5
& TEX world series etched in stone

WAKE
UP
PPL ,,
THE
PLAY
NEVER
CHANGES !

[Trivial]

Where did I use "public"...depends on context. But I'm not into public versus sharp stuff....

Sorry. I am getting too many write ups confused. Ignore me please.

[Trivial]

Yesterday, there was huge movement on the cards under which ended up losing. Line movement isn't always right. All this movement on texas and the over could be mistaken.

Absolutely true. I should really keep stats on number of wins vs losses compared to what the line movement showed after wagering. Probably 50-50.

[Love The Action]

MLB Playoff Action Parlay (not for records win or lose)

TB ML (-115)/ under (8)(+100)

0.10x to win 0.27x

I gotta get some action on Price at this great price. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

If I were running hotter right now, I would add to 1x play on the rays/rangers under. Good luck....

[Trivial]

If I were running hotter right now, I would add to 1x play on the rays/rangers under. Good luck....

I hear ya. If I were hotter, I would have played this as a smart man. Been burned all weekend on unders and chickened out.

[Trivial]

I hear ya. If I were hotter, I would have played this as a smart man. Been burned all weekend on unders and chickened out.

Don't want to jinx but under is looking good. GL.

[Gambleanonymous1]

you da man lta

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/3/11

Play #1

Rangers/Rays under (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Even though my model has this one at 8, I think we have nice value at 8 with juice at -105 so I jumped on it for our first play today. If you substitute Lewis' road splits instead of his overall stats, I would have this closer to the 7.4 range. With a total at 8 at very little juice, I like this under when you factor in the Trop effect and its ability to limit HR's (which as Redscot pointed out above has been a problem for Lewis). Lewis has a solid history against TB in a small sample and TB is not the best team in the world against right handed hitters. You have 90% of all bets on the over and it would not surprise me to see a final score which ends in 7 to burn all those tickets. Dale Scott is the ump and he can go either way judging by his lifetime numbers. He has a strike rate in the 62.5% range, so I don't see him as being a detriment to this play. I see this one just squeaking under the total of 8, so I'm going to take a shot with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tigers ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

This is a great price for Verlander at home, where is he is even better than on the road. Comerica is a pretty solid pitchers park, which is also the reason I lean to the under as well. Other than one inning a few days ago, both pitchers are rested and ready to go. As was mentioned earlier, the three days rest for these guys should not go the level of fatigue like it might have for Greinke and Carpenter last night. However, this play is about the Tigers. I was on Verlander at plus odds and I'll take a shot at him at a great home price of -117. CC may actually be a bit rusty because of his lack of work and that would only aid the Tigers if CC can't find the strike zone. With the Tigers having a comparable offense to that of the Yankees and what has been a statistically better bullpen over the last month, I think the home advantage might help put the Tigers over the top. CC has struggle at Comerica in a small sample and Verlander has limited the Yankees dangerous lefties in the past. I think we see the same tonight and I'm rolling with the Tigers for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

On the Tigers with ya bro. Another small advantage is Verlanders reverse effectiveness against LHB's, with the 3 switch hitters that makes 6 he will be facing. Conversely CC will be facing 8 of 9 guys batting RH against him where he is statistically poorer. Gonna be a hell of a battle, both of the SP are studs.

On a side note, for the MNF game would you lean over or under? I am probably gonna tease it because I don't feel strong enough about any play and can't lay off .

[Love The Action]

On the Tigers with ya bro. Another small advantage is Verlanders reverse effectiveness against LHB's, with the 3 switch hitters that makes 6 he will be facing. Conversely CC will be facing 8 of 9 guys batting RH against him where he is statistically poorer. Gonna be a hell of a battle, both of the SP are studs.

On a side note, for the MNF game would you lean over or under? I am probably gonna tease it because I don't feel strong enough about any play and can't lay off .

I'm thinking about a play on the over in MNF...I would like to get 39.5 though.

[Love The Action]

Rangers are looking good now for you Ranger backers...let's hope they don't get too crazy and fuk up the under. I really hate Juan Cruz so I question why Maddon is using him...let's hope he shuts the door and there's no more scoring in this one.

[Love The Action]

Rangers are looking good now for you Ranger backers...let's hope they don't get too crazy and fuk up the under. I really hate Juan Cruz so I question why Maddon is using him...let's hope he shuts the door and there's no more scoring in this one.

Nice job Juan Cruz...

I still am not a fan though...all stemming from his days as a disappointment for the Cubbies.

[Redscot]

Rangers are looking good now for you Ranger backers...let's hope they don't get too crazy and fuk up the under. I really hate Juan Cruz so I question why Maddon is using him...let's hope he shuts the door and there's no more scoring in this one.

Amen bro. Gomes came in to throw gas on the fire, couldn't throw a strike, everything was under control under wise.

[birdmanweezy]

good luck on the yanks here

[Trivial]

Rangers are looking good now for you Ranger backers...let's hope they don't get too crazy and fuk up the under. I really hate Juan Cruz so I question why Maddon is using him...let's hope he shuts the door and there's no more scoring in this one.

Lets hope the score stays as is. Will definitely take Detroit with that nice writeup. I think I am staying away from MNF.

[Love The Action]

I totally agree. I think that and the fact that TB was so bad for so long and got so many good drafts is the reason they are where they are. What is even more interesting is that the Rays lost lots of players coming into this year and are still in the playoffs. The Red Sox played a big part, but being the wild card is just winning your division.

Dave Martinez is being looked at as a favorite for the White Sox managerial job. I wouldn't mind that at all, cannot ask for a better teacher IMO and Maddon signs off on him.

As for the Yanks/Tigers under, I wouldn't take it where it is at now. Last night the value was better so I thought it was worth a shot.

I wouldn't mind Dave Martinez...I think Kenny really wants Terry Francona though. I actually Davey Martinez more than any of the other names being thrown around with LaRusa, Bell, Francona and especially Alomar Jr. I would hate to see Alomar Jr get the job. Let's hope they go with Martinez...

[Dragon]

lol

[Redscot]

Oliver not covering first and now this, they can never just make it easy can they .

My local won't move off -125 Detroit, been waiting and waiting........

[Love The Action]

good luck on the yanks here

Pretty sure we're all on the Tigers round these parts cowboy...

[Love The Action]

Oliver not covering first and now this, they can never just make it easy can they .

My local won't move off -125 Detroit, been waiting and waiting........

Unreal...when it rains it fuking pours.

[Redscot]

Pretty sure we're all on the Tigers round these parts cowboy...