LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

I don't cap baseball.

Something is wrong if people think Fister and Scherzer pitching on the road is somehow equal to Nova/Garcia pitching at home in Yankee stadium.

And for the record, since I've been following you, you have a losing record.

Hey bud...I'm not trying to get into an argument with you.

However, if you are going to analyze pitchers and MLB in general, don't be looking at ERA or comparing wins or losses. Those stats are meaningless. Start looking into advanced stats and sabermetrics. That is where you will find some success.

How long have you been following me...a week? Come on dude...you are losing your credibility by the second.

[Redscot]

Utah St. is that ass. Don't know what happend to Heaps, so highly touted..whenever I have watched him he has been trash. He's like the pitcher in baseball who has "stuff" but can't get people out.

[Love The Action]

My wager on the Tigers was cancelled...no bet.

So what are the matchups for tomorrow?

[Love The Action]

Utah St. is that ass. Don't know what happend to Heaps, so highly touted..whenever I have watched him he has been trash. He's like the pitcher in baseball who has "stuff" but can't get people out.

I know...but Nelson used to play for Utah St. It would be wild if he could bring them back.

You're looking great with that teaser...let's just keep these points down for the fourth quarter....

[Redscot]

I know...but Nelson used to play for Utah St. It would be wild if he could bring them back.

You're looking great with that teaser...let's just keep these points down for the fourth quarter....

As you said Nelson. I want my money, but am admiring his stones right now!

[PhillyFlyers]

Hey bud...I'm not trying to get into an argument with you.

However, if you are going to analyze pitchers and MLB in general, don't be looking at ERA or comparing wins or losses. Those stats are meaningless. Start looking into advanced stats and sabermetrics. That is where you will find some success.

How long have you been following me...a week? Come on dude...you are losing your credibility by the second.

No one's trying to start an argument. You made fun of me with my analysis yet since I've been following you, your record sucks.

Advanced sabre metrics, you can look at them all day. In the end your chances of winning a bet is still only 50-50.

Everybody was so sure of Verlander, you included. I'm sure you used your metrics in analyzing the game tonight. How'd that work out for you? He struggled.

No one can tell me that Fister, a guy who lost 13 games, lost more games than he won, is going to come into Yankee stadium in a playoff atmosphere and beat the Yankees with Nova pitching on his home mound.

I'm sure you'll disagree and we'll all find out tomorrow night.

[Love The Action]

Looks like rain tomorrow in Philly too...55% chance. I like the under in Milw, Philly and Texas. I also like TB tomorrow, but I already have a hell of a lot NCAAF action...

[Love The Action]

No one's trying to start an argument. You made fun of me with my analysis yet since I've been following you, your record sucks.

Advanced sabre metrics, you can look at them all day. In the end your chances of winning a bet is still only 50-50.

Everybody was so sure of Verlander, you included. I'm sure you used your metrics in analyzing the game tonight. How'd that work out for you? He struggled.

No one can tell me that Fister, a guy who lost 13 games, lost more games than he won, is going to come into Yankee stadium in a playoff atmosphere and beat the Yankees with Nova pitching on his home mound.

I'm sure you'll disagree and we'll all find out tomorrow night.

What are you talking about...how did I make fun of you? Because of the smily faces...come on bud, toughen up.

Dude...there are so many things you have to learn and I'm willing to help if you want to ask questions or whatever. If I make a bet, it's sure as hell not a 50/50 proposition. Sports investing is all about identifying an edge that makes the wager +EV (i.e. better than a 50/50 proposition).

Please name the date you've been following me from. Thanks.

[Redscot]

Looks like rain tomorrow in Philly too...55% chance. I like the under in Milw, Philly and Texas. I also like TB tomorrow, but I already have a hell of a lot NCAAF action...

Agreed on all accounts. Don't see why NCAAF should hold any bearing on your MLB wagers bro, you got 40 units in the bank regular season.

[Love The Action]

No one's trying to start an argument. You made fun of me with my analysis yet since I've been following you, your record sucks.

Again, please advise the day upon which you started following. You registered for SBR on 9/27. If you are going to judge someone's record since since Tuesday, you have no idea how this game works. But I will help you if you want to contribute positively.

Advanced sabre metrics, you can look at them all day. In the end your chances of winning a bet is still only 50-50.

Wrong. You can use advanced stats to gain an edge and predict line movement. That makes your wager a better than 50/50 proposition.

Everybody was so sure of Verlander, you included. I'm sure you used your metrics in analyzing the game tonight. How'd that work out for you? He struggled.

They played 1.5 innings dude. Are you serious? The game was tied and CC gave up a homerun. How long have you been following baseball?

No one can tell me that Fister, a guy who lost 13 games, lost more games than he won, is going to come into Yankee stadium in a playoff atmosphere and beat the Yankees with Nova pitching on his home mound.

I'm telling you. Please stop looking at wins, losses, ERA, etc. Whatever you think matters, throw it out the window. We can help you if you pay attention and ask questions.

[Love The Action]

Agreed on all accounts. Don't see why NCAAF should hold any bearing on your MLB wagers bro, you got 40 units in the bank regular season.

It doesn't, but overall money management always plays a roll and it's always about selectivity....

[PhillyFlyers]

What are you talking about...how did I make fun of you. Because of the smily faces...come on bro, toughen up.

Dude...there are so many things you have to learn and I'm willing to help if you want to ask questions or whatever. If I make a bet, it's sure as hell not a 50/50 proposition. Sports investing is all about identifying an edge that makes the wager +EV (i.e. better than a 50/50 proposition).

Please name the date you've been following me from. Thanks.

I haven't been here long. I started following you before I registered here so maybe a few weeks. In that time though, you said to take Stanford/Arizona over 55.5 which lost. Houston giving 6.5 to La.Tech was another loser that I took.

The first time I posted to you, you told me not to touch the Phillies/Braves game in the last game of the season. You said the Braves had an advantage with Hudson on the mound.

You gave me the loser today which was the under 8.5 And from the looks of it, Detroit was about to go down tonight with their best pitcher on the mound.

Fortunately, I did take the Phillies.

[PhillyFlyers]

Again, please advise the day upon which you started following. You registered for SBR on 9/27. If you are going to judge someone's record since since Tuesday, you have no idea how this game works. But I will help you if you want to contribute positively.



Wrong. You can use advanced stats to gain an edge and predict line movement. That makes your wager a better than 50/50 proposition.



They played 1.5 innings dude. Are you serious? The game was tied and CC gave up a homerun. How long have you been following baseball?



I'm telling you. Please stop looking at wins, losses, ERA, etc. Whatever you think matters, throw it out the window. We can help you if you pay attention and ask questions.

Again, please advise the day upon which you started following. You registered for SBR on 9/27. If you are going to judge someone's record since since Tuesday, you have no idea how this game works. But I will help you if you want to contribute positively.

I can only judge your record by what I've seen.

Wrong. You can use advanced stats to gain an edge and predict line movement. That makes your wager a better than 50/50 proposition.

So your record winning percentage is greater than 50% for the entire time you've been handicapping? If so, is it documented?

They played 1.5 innings dude. Are you serious? The game was tied and CC gave up a homerun. How long have you been following baseball?

Verlander struggled even more than Sabathia. Were you even watching the game?

I'm telling you. Please stop looking at wins, losses, ERA, etc. Whatever you think matters, throw it out the window. We can help you if you pay attention and ask questions.

[/quote]


Well I certainly want the help and definitely appreciate it. But why throw those things out of the window? They are not meaningless.

[Love The Action]

I haven't been here long. I started following you before I registered here so maybe a few weeks. In that time though, you said to take Stanford/Arizona over 55.5 which lost. Houston giving 6.5 to La.Tech was another loser that I took.

You sir are coming off very simplistic. How can you cherry pick three plays and use that as a basis to say that my "record sucks." If you had followed every play I have made in the NFL, NCAAF and MLB over the last two weeks, you would have a positive record and be up +7x right now. Instead, you reference a mere three game sample size from cherry picked plays. How long have you been sports investing? Have you heard the term "sample size?"

The first time I posted to you, you told me not to touch the Phillies/Braves game in the last game of the season. You said the Braves had an advantage with Hudson on the mound.

Are you kidding me with this statement? Surely you are not serious.

You gave me the loser today which was the under 8.5 And from the looks of it, Detroit was about to go down tonight with their best pitcher on the mound.

Again, I have to ask how long you have been sports investing and why you are blaming others for your decisions. I posted my play on the Rangers/TB under. I did not make your wager for you. You chose to follow my play, which lost in the 9th inning on a bullshit misplay. Whether I won that game or lost that game means nothing over a 800 game sample size. I have shown a profitable record over an over 800 game sample size of posted plays. Have you even made 800 plays in your life?

I feel like we can help, but you need to drop the attitude and be open to learning.

[Donnie Brasco]

Any thoughts on shields +108 tomorrow?

[PhillyFlyers]

You sir are coming off very simplistic. How can you cherry pick three plays and use that as a basis to say that my "record sucks." If you had followed every play I have made in the NFL, NCAAF and MLB over the last two weeks, you would have a positive record and be up +7x right now. Instead, you reference a mere three game sample size from cherry picked plays. How long have you been sports investing? Have you heard the term "sample size?"



Are you kidding me with this statement? Surely you are not serious.



Again, I have to ask how long you have been sports investing and why you are blaming others for your decisions. I posted my play on the Rangers/TB under. I did not make your wager for you. You chose to follow my play, which lost in the 9th inning on a bullshit misplay. Whether I won that game or lost that game means nothing over a 800 game sample size. I have shown a profitable record over an over 800 game sample size of posted plays. Have you even made 800 plays in your life?

I feel like we can help, but you need to drop the attitude and be open to learning.

[quote=Love The Action;11673321]You sir are coming off very simplistic. How can you cherry pick three plays and use that as a basis to say that my "record sucks." If you had followed every play I have made in the NFL, NCAAF and MLB over the last two weeks, you would have a positive record and be up +7x right now. Instead, you reference a mere three game sample size from cherry picked plays. How long have you been sports investing? Have you heard the term "sample size?"

I'm not cherry picking. I said I've been following only a few weeks. What was picked before that doesn't matter to me.

Again, do you have a winning percentage of 50% or better for the time you've been handicapping and if so, is it documented?

Are you kidding me with this statement? Surely you are not serious.

Nope, not at all. Here is your quote...."The braves are definitely overpriced and there is solid value on philly, however, the braves have the advantage with Hudson. If philly had a lefty on the mound, I would feel a lit better but as it stands I would not touch this game. We also need to see what kind of lineup philly throws out there. Last night we had equal pitchers and a better lineup with the yanks. You can't say that about philly. Good luck...i hope you cash"

I feel like we can help, but you need to drop the attitude and be open to learning.

I don't have an attitude and am sorry if you feel like I do. It's not intentional. I actually was thinking it was you who had the attitude. Especially with your liberal use of emoticons.

[Love The Action]

I can only judge your record by what I've seen.

You named three losing plays, but failed to name all of the winning plays I posted in the same time period. Stop talking like my record only consists of the three plays you cherry picked.

So your record winning percentage is greater than 50% for the entire time you've been handicapping? If so, is it documented?

Of course. Why would I put my money on the line, unless I knew I had an edge. You should never make a wager unless you have calculated your odds of winning.

Below is my final record for this season with every play documented on SBR. My NBA playoff thread made over +88x in profit all documented here on SBR.

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

Verlander struggled even more than Sabathia. Were you even watching the game?

Stop trying to judge a game based on one inning. That is the most ridiculous statement I have heard. Have you ever watched baseball?! They play more than one inning.

Well I certainly want the help and definitely appreciate it. But why throw those things out of the window? They are not meaningless.

Glad to help. ERA is the most meaningless statistic there is. So you could start believing that or you will not learn anything.

[Love The Action]

I'm not cherry picking. I said I've been following only a few weeks. What was picked before that doesn't matter to me.

Again, if you followed every play I have made for the last two weeks, you would be up +7x. Clearly, you didn't.

Again, do you have a winning percentage of 50% or better for the time you've been handicapping and if so, is it documented?

I just posted my season record and I would be happy to direct you to my NBA playoff thread. Check out the first page of this thread and you will see a link to all of my other winning threads. The only unprofitable sport I have had on SBR is WNBA, when I ended with a positive win/loss record but negative units by about 4x.

Nope, not at all. Here is your quote...."The braves are definitely overpriced and there is solid value on philly, however, the braves have the advantage with Hudson. If philly had a lefty on the mound, I would feel a lit better but as it stands I would not touch this game. We also need to see what kind of lineup philly throws out there. Last night we had equal pitchers and a better lineup with the yanks. You can't say that about philly. Good luck...i hope you cash"

Sounds like solid analysis. The Braves were winning with Hudson, rememeber? That game went to extra innings when Philly won.

I don't have an attitude and am sorry if you feel like I do. It's not intentional. I actually was thinking it was you who had the attitude. Especially with your liberal use of emoticons.

Wow, how old are you? I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings with the "emoticons."

Listen bud, feel free to swing by any time. I have some work to do before bed. I think you can learn something, but you need to be open to it. Good luck.

[ManBearPig]

Sup LTA...see your still being hated on but you still make money at the end of the day so you don't need to explain yourself. Anyways, I got a free 14-day trial to SportsInsights and that thing is dope...I feel like Billy Walters looking at the thing...too bad I'm more like Billy Madison.

I don't really know what the point of this was but just stopped by to say whatsup...take care buddy!!!

[Love The Action]

Teasing Utah and the under to +13 1/2 and 57, not sure if I should buy the 1/2 point............

Cash it!! Nice call Red

[Love The Action]

Sup LTA...see your still being hated on but you still make money at the end of the day so you don't need to explain yourself. Anyways, I got a free 14-day trial to SportsInsights and that thing is dope...I feel like Billy Walters looking at the thing...too bad I'm more like Billy Madison.

I don't really know what the point of this was but just stopped by to say whatsup...take care buddy!!!

No...not at all. I rarely get any haters...you just stop in at the worst times . This guy Philly is a good guy, he's just inexperienced. I've really only had one hater in my entire time at SBR -- I think you know who that is because you've had a run in or two with the same guy.

SI is nice isn't it. I split the basic $100 a month package with a buddy. I highly recommend it. Although, the betting percentage date is often very similar to SSpy for you guys out there that use that free service.

Hope all is well. What are you investing in these days? Good luck

[Krazymojo]

az and under tomorrow?

[Love The Action]

az and under tomorrow?

I lean under right now....

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on shields +108 tomorrow?

Yeah, I lean to TB and Shields. He has pitched well against the Texas lineup and was as good as any starting pitcher this year. His advanced numbers rival those of Halladay, Verlander, CC, etc.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/1/11

Play #1

Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Off to bed..good luck!

[Luv2Play2]

i spent to much time reading threads, and making mistakes.. ill now take the time to thank those who have put cash in my pocket... LTA thanks for all the hard work you share..bol always

[funnyman]

Wouldn't it be something if Tamba Bay won this series?

[kuma_eagles]

The first time I posted to you, you told me not to touch the Phillies/Braves game in the last game of the season. You said the Braves had an advantage with Hudson on the mound.

dude, seriously? did you watch the game? or you bother to read the game recap, or go watch the highlight on mlb.com...

and this one

Everybody was so sure of Verlander, you included. I'm sure you used your metrics in analyzing the game tonight. How'd that work out for you? He struggled

sorry i'm not trying to get in between any argument or fight I just feel like I need to point this out after reading these comment...lol jesus christ.

good luck LTA

[Redscot]

Cash it!! Nice call Red

Thanks my man, unfortunately I had 1/2 unit on Utah St. ML +230 too, that would have made the night a really good one. Crazy ass final drive, that was wild.

Big day today, gonna be out till the evening roasting a whole pig and drinking rum. Enjoy the wedding and see ya in the evening. Thanks for all the College plays

GL to all other members of the thread

[Redscot]

It doesn't, but overall money management always plays a roll and it's always about selectivity....

Money Management? Never heard of it Have improved on it though in good part due to your discipline.

Incidentally no Noesi or Colon, so the Yanks long options in this series are Burnett and Hughes.

[Donnie Brasco]

U too redscot!

[Love The Action]

i spent to much time reading threads, and making mistakes.. ill now take the time to thank those who have put cash in my pocket... LTA thanks for all the hard work you share..bol always

[Love The Action]

Thanks my man, unfortunately I had 1/2 unit on Utah St. ML +230 too, that would have made the night a really good one. Crazy ass final drive, that was wild.

Big day today, gonna be out till the evening roasting a whole pig and drinking rum. Enjoy the wedding and see ya in the evening. Thanks for all the College plays

GL to all other members of the thread

You got one hell of life down there in the DR. We are big on the Caribbean, so don't be surprised if me and the fam hits the Dominican up for a few days next year. Sounds like it's a lot of fun and I have never been there.

Good luck today!

[Krazymojo]

shields at +112 for me right now

[Redscot]

You got one hell of life down there in the DR. We are big on the Caribbean, so don't be surprised if me and the fam hits the Dominican up for a few days next year. Sounds like it's a lot of fun and I have never been there.

Good luck today!

It is a beautiful country and when you get into the interior and the country folk, some of the nicest and most generous people.

I can recommend some great spots for you down here for whatever you may like, just say the word.

Leaving in 30 min's or so, any other thoughts on baseball today?