LTA's MLB Plays

[Exxpresso]

Pinny: Tigers/Verlander + 114 Yanks/Sabathia -121 Over 7 +118 Under 7 -130

[815Sox]

What a night. Pumped for the playoffs.

[Love The Action]

Pinny: Tigers/Verlander + 114 Yanks/Sabathia -121 Over 7 +118 Under 7 -130

Hmmm....that's not a bad price for Verlander. -130 on the under 7 is ridiculous.

[PhillyFlyers]

Tigers/Verlander +117 +1.5 (-200)

Yankees/Sabathia -127 -1.5 (+170)

o/u 7 no line

EDIT: over 7 -115 under 7 -105 now

Diamondbacks/Kennedy +118 +1.5 (-210)

Brewers/Gallardo -128 -1.5 (+175)

over 7.5 even

under 7.5 -120

[WULULO]

My book has Det/NYY u7 -105, think I should jump on it?

[funnyman]

If most games were like last night for drama and thrills baseball WOULD be the number 1 pastime.Unfortunately they are too long and slow.

[bleedtoledo]

I'm getting under 7 even money, -120 over.

Verlander +119
CC -129

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 9/30/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but I had to jump on this price now because I don't think it gets much better. I have the Tigers around +112 for this game which puts this pitching matchup as pretty equal on a neutral field. I am going to roll with the tigers because I think we are getting almost 10 cents in value here. I expect the Tigers to close at or near +112. The tigers's bats are probably a bit hotter than the yankees right now and I rate verlander a bit higher than cc. I'm not going to say the tigers win this series, but I do think they steal this game 1 and I'm going to back them here for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 9/30/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but I had to jump on this price now because I don't think it gets much better. I have the Tigers around +112 for this game which puts this pitching matchup as pretty equal on a neutral field. I am going to roll with the tigers because I think we are getting almost 10 cents in value here. I expect the Tigers to close at or near +112. The tigers's bats are probably a bit hotter than the yankees right now and I rate verlander a bit higher than cc. I'm not going to say the tigers win this series, but I do think they steal this game 1 and I'm going to back them here for 1x. Good luck.

[815Sox]

Tigers vs Yankees is going to be interesting because both teams have problems with pitching. I think the Yankees win, Tigers might give them a run for the money.

[Love The Action]

Tigers vs Yankees is going to be interesting because both teams have problems with pitching. I think the Yankees win, Tigers might give them a run for the money.

I tend to agree with you that the yankees probably win this series, but I think detroit gets this first game and puts a scare into them. Should be a good one.

[Redscot]

Gallardo last 5 GS has a Siera of 1.53 and 14 K's per 9 inning average

Kennedy last 5 haven't been too shabby either 2.49 Siera and over 9 K's per 9.

In the American League over last 30 days CJ Wilson is 4th in Siera to............Fister, F. Hernandez and......Scherzer. Interesting.

Last 30 days which American league team had the lowest Siera?

Texas....by a good margin.

The Brew Crew's pen cannot be slept on this series either.

[Redscot]

DBL post.

[Love The Action]

Gallardo last 5 GS has a Siera of 1.53 and 14 K's per 9 inning average

Kennedy last 5 haven't been too shabby either 2.49 Siera and over 9 K's per 9.

In the American League over last 30 days CJ Wilson is 4th in Siera to............Fister, F. Hernandez and......Scherzer. Interesting.

Last 30 days which American league team had the lowest Siera?

Texas....by a good margin.

The Brew Crew's pen cannot be slept on this series either.

Just went through the first game matchup between the brewers and dbacks....I'm kicking myself that I didnt lock in the juiced up under 7.5....

[Krazymojo]

any future bets for mlb playoffs?

[Love The Action]

I have six ncaaf plays locked in so far...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p8.html#post11653267

[GoggsViggs]

Bro, my local is giving me +490 for TB to win AL. Good value, worth shot?

[Love The Action]

Bro, my local is giving me +490 for TB to win AL. Good value, worth shot?

I'm going to lay off the futures...so I don't want to steer you the wrong way.

However, I will say this. TB's decision to start Matt Moore in game 1 is a game-changer and I love it. That guy is filthy.

I am now considering a big play on the total in that game. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

any future bets for mlb playoffs?

What up...hope all is well.

Probably not...at least not for any real money. Maybe a few action wagers on some futures...

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 9/30/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+121) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but I had to jump on this price now because I don't think it gets much better. I have the Tigers around +112 for this game which puts this pitching matchup as pretty equal on a neutral field. I am going to roll with the tigers because I think we are getting almost 10 cents in value here. I expect the Tigers to close at or near +112. The tigers's bats are probably a bit hotter than the yankees right now and I rate verlander a bit higher than cc. I'm not going to say the tigers win this series, but I do think they steal this game 1 and I'm going to back them here for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

TB/Texas under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot here. I can't really run my model with this being Moore's second start, however, this guy has electric stuff and the unfamiliarity factor should help against that Rangers lineup. On the other side, Wilson has just completely dominated the Rays this season and see no reason why that does not continue. I expect a tight game through six innings or so, with a few runs late but I don't see a total of 9 hitting this game and that's what the books will need to beat us. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Notice the move on the NYY/DET total. Under's now at +105.

Books are expecting Verlander to get hit LTA.

[fitguy67]

I like both picks...it's hard to bet Tex under generally but for this specific game you're spot on.

[freshguy222]

what do you think about ari/mil under 7, i know we lost the hook, but i see more of a 3-1 or 3-2 type of game here?both offenses seem to have lost a little bit of firepower lately

[Redscot]

Play #2

TB/Texas under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot here. I can't really run my model with this being Moore's second start, however, this guy has electric stuff and the unfamiliarity factor should help against that Rangers lineup. On the other side, Wilson has just completely dominated the Rays this season and see no reason why that does not continue. I expect a tight game through six innings or so, with a few runs late but I don't see a total of 9 hitting this game and that's what the books will need to beat us. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

You and Maddon are both ballsy with this call! Actually i like it, definitely worth a stab, Texas hasn't seen Moore, he has Strasburg type stuff (as a LH) and has Price on his team who was thrust into a similar situation. Obviously him being so green there is a good bit of volatility to this play, but....it's already down to 8 a juice is dropping on the over

Big day LTA, nice hit on the college game last night

[Redscot]

what do you think about ari/mil under 7, i know we lost the hook, but i see more of a 3-1 or 3-2 type of game here?both offenses seem to have lost a little bit of firepower lately

Looks like Joe West will be behind the plate for that one, that could be a deterrent.

1st game umps look like:

Dale Scott in Texas

Gerry Davis in NYC

Joe West in Milwaukee

Jerry Layne in Philly

*These coming from a source who has been pretty reliable, but not confirmed*

[Love The Action]

Notice the move on the NYY/DET total. Under's now at +105.

Books are expecting Verlander to get hit LTA.

The under opened at +104!!!!

That's only a one cent move and does not concern me in the least. Plus, your hypothesis could easily be applied to say the same about cc....this is a very low total for these offenses and I expect some sharp money on the over.

To be honest, I have an over lean on this game myself because of these offenses. Its so easy for each offense to get 3 runs regardless of the pitcher. I think you are reading into the correlation too much, as I don't think there is one for this game.

As long as the price on detroit doesn't get above +125, I think we are good to go. If we see a drop to below +115 ooked I think, we will be in good shape. GL

[GoggsViggs]

Play #2

TB/Texas under (8.5)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot here. I can't really run my model with this being Moore's second start, however, this guy has electric stuff and the unfamiliarity factor should help against that Rangers lineup. On the other side, Wilson has just completely dominated the Rays this season and see no reason why that does not continue. I expect a tight game through six innings or so, with a few runs late but I don't see a total of 9 hitting this game and that's what the books will need to beat us. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

agree. On this and DET as well.

[Love The Action]

Looks like Joe West will be behind the plate for that one, that could be a deterrent.

1st game umps look like:

Dale Scott in Texas

Gerry Davis in NYC

Joe West in Milwaukee

Jerry Layne in Philly

*These coming from a source who has been pretty reliable, but not confirmed*

Looks like we need to look at the philly under with layne in there.

That sucks about scott being in texas, but its better than having that fat ahole west...country joe

I'm capping the philly game later this morning....i guess we'll see.

Thanks for the info...good luck

[Love The Action]

agree. On this and DET as well.

Let's get it GV....how is the fam?

[Blackroc78]

If most games were like last night for drama and thrills baseball WOULD be the number 1 pastime.Unfortunately they are too long and slow.

Baseball is the greatest sport in the world in my opinion, there is so much involved that the average person just doesn't get, but i agree with you if every game was like wednesday night it would be more appealing to the public, what a finish to the end of the season! So pumped for today!

[Love The Action]

Damn...i made a mistake locking that tb/tex under in last night. Should have waited...i can get -110 now. Cost me ten cents. Not good.

[No coincidences]

The under opened at +104!!!!

That's only a one cent move and does not concern me in the least. Plus, your hypothesis could easily be applied to say the same about cc....this is a very low total for these offenses and I expect some sharp money on the over.

To be honest, I have an over lean on this game myself because of these offenses. Its so easy for each offense to get 3 runs regardless of the pitcher. I think you are reading into the correlation too much, as I don't think there is one for this game.

As long as the price on detroit doesn't get above +125, I think we are good to go. If we see a drop to below +115 ooked I think, we will be in good shape. GL

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the under opened at -130.

This is what I don't understand about the old SBRodds site -- according to their line history at Pinny, Detroit opened at +122 and the under opened at +104. I know for a fact, though, that Pinny had Detroit at +114 and the under was being juiced heavily when that line first came out (can't remember the exact number).

I don't know why this hasn't been included in the line history. Detroit started at +114 -- not +122.

[Love The Action]

Notice the move on the NYY/DET total. Under's now at +105.

Books are expecting Verlander to get hit LTA.

The game total is not what concerns me...it's the team totals that are scary with detroit getting juiced on the under and nyy on the over...

[No coincidences]

The game total is not what concerns me...it's the team totals that are scary with detroit getting juiced on the under and nyy on the over...

I know this will probably bring you know who out of the woodwork, but the other thing that concerns me is that Bodog is offering Detroit at +109 while Pinny has them at +123. That's a huge difference. Whenever you can get a dog at a 10-plus cent better price at a sharp book vs. a recreational one, that's usually a sign you shouldn't be on that dog in the first place.

Nothing is pointing to Detroit as a good play yet. Hate to say that because I'm on them as well.

[PhillyFlyers]

I know this will probably bring you know who out of the woodwork, but the other thing that concerns me is that Bodog is offering Detroit at +109 while Pinny has them at +123. That's a huge difference. Whenever you can get a dog at a 10-plus cent better price at a sharp book vs. a recreational one, that's usually a sign you shouldn't be on that dog in the first place.

Nothing is pointing to Detroit as a good play yet. Hate to say that because I'm on them as well.

Why should anything point to Detroit being a good play? The Yankees are the better team. Better team pitching, better team offense, almost better everything. There's a reason why the Yankees are favored.