LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/1/11

Play #1

Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(+100) (Locked)

The numbers in this one are glaring. Not only do both pitchers have great advanced statistics, but both pitchers have dominated the opposing lineups. Neither lineup comes into this series hitting at their best and both play solid defense with great bullpens. This series will be one to keep your eye on the under because the public generally looks as both teams as offensive powerhouses, but they are also solid defensive and pitching teams. I am very confident that we hit this under in the first game of the series and I'm rolling that way for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+112) 1x (Locked)

Once this one hit +111, I had to jump on it and I was actually able to get a better number at +112. I love this pitching matchup with Shields really elevating himself to the top echelon of starting pitchers this season. Even though the Rangers were shutout yesterday, and I generally like backing such teams in their next game, I have to roll with Shields today. The TB bats are hot and they are getting contributions from bottom of the order guys as well as timely hits from everyone. Although Holland has pitched well the 2h of the season, he is not in Shields' category at this point of his career. If you compare advanced stats, you will see Shields dominates Holland in almost every category and it's not really close (e.g. Shields WAR of 4.9, Holland has 3.6, Shields has FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's, Holland has high 3's or low 4's, Shields has K% over 23% and Holland under 20%, etc.). With Tampa Bay being a solid team against lefties, I have to make Tampa my moneyline play in this one. I also have a strong lean on the under in this game, but I'm locking in this play now to preserve the +112. I have Tampa as -103 here, so I love the value we're getting at +112 and I'm rolling with the Rays for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/1/11

Play #1

Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(+100) 1.5x (Locked)The numbers in this one are glaring. Not only do both pitchers have great advanced statistics, but both pitchers have dominated the opposing lineups. Neither lineup comes into this series hitting at their best and both play solid defense with great bullpens. This series will be one to keep your eye on the under because the public generally looks as both teams as offensive powerhouses, but they are also solid defensive and pitching teams. I am very confident that we hit this under in the first game of the series and I'm rolling that way for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tampa Bay ML (+112) 1x (Locked)

Once this one hit +111, I had to jump on it and I was actually able to get a better number at +112. I love this pitching matchup with Shields really elevating himself to the top echelon of starting pitchers this season. Even though the Rangers were shutout yesterday, and I generally like backing such teams in their next game, I have to roll with Shields today. The TB bats are hot and they are getting contributions from bottom of the order guys as well as timely hits from everyone. Although Holland has pitched well the 2h of the season, he is not in Shields' category at this point of his career. If you compare advanced stats, you will see Shields dominates Holland in almost every category and it's not really close (e.g. Shields WAR of 4.9, Holland has 3.6, Shields has FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's, Holland has high 3's or low 4's, Shields has K% over 23% and Holland under 20%, etc.). With Tampa Bay being a solid team against lefties, I have to make Tampa my moneyline play in this one. I also have a strong lean on the under in this game, but I'm locking in this play now to preserve the +112. I have Tampa as -103 here, so I love the value we're getting at +112 and I'm rolling with the Rays for 1x. Good luck.

Leans:

Cards/Phillies under (7) I'm worried about the weather, but I may lock it in now at -105 and then cancel if the weather looks like we are going to get hit by rain delays. Remember, we don't play unders when rain is involved.

TB/Texas under (8.5) I still have some work to do on Holland and I'm still undecided on this one at the moment.

I would lean on the Tigers today if we can get Fister at +135 or more. Anyone have a price yet?

[PhillyFlyers]

You named three losing plays, but failed to name all of the winning plays I posted in the same time period. Stop talking like my record only consists of the three plays you cherry picked.

I named three losers you gave that all lost for me. What else do you want me to base it on? How abut telling us to take the Yankees that also lost? Like I said, since I've been following you, you have a losing record.

Of course. Why would I put my money on the line, unless I knew I had an edge. You should never make a wager unless you have calculated your odds of winning.

Below is my final record for this season with every play documented on SBR. My NBA playoff thread made over +88x in profit all documented here on SBR.

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

That's it? 378 losses against only 418 wins? Not a very good record. Especially for baseball which is traditionally the easiest sport to play, at least for me.

Hell, I could have advised everyone to simply take the Phillies every day until the end of the year and could have ended up with better winning percentage than you. Seriously.

Stop trying to judge a game based on one inning. That is the most ridiculous statement I have heard. Have you ever watched baseball?! They play more than one inning.

Why? Didn't you bash Sabathia based on the same one inning? Yet somehow I can't judge Verlander?

Glad to help. ERA is the most meaningless statistic there is. So you could start believing that or you will not learn anything.

You named three losing plays, but failed to name all of the winning plays I posted in the same time period. Stop talking like my record only consists of the three plays you cherry picked.

I appreciate your effort but your picks haven't helped, they've been killing me. I didn't name the winning plays because they didn't win for me but even if I did,since I've been following, I do not think you'd have a winning record anyway.

[BillyGoat]

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 1.5x Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(+100) (Locked) The numbers in this one are glaring. Not only do both pitchers have great advanced statistics, but both pitchers have dominated the opposing lineups. Neither lineup comes into this series hitting at their best and both play solid defense with great bullpens. This series will be one to keep your eye on the under because the public generally looks as both teams as offensive powerhouses, but they are also solid defensive and pitching teams. I am very confident that we hit this under in the first game of the series and I'm rolling that way for 1.5x. Good luck. Play #2 Tampa Bay ML (+112) 1x (Locked) Once this one hit +111, I had to jump on it and I was actually able to get a better number at +112. I love this pitching matchup with Shields really elevating himself to the top echelon of starting pitchers this season. Even though the Rangers were shutout yesterday, and I generally like backing such teams in their next game, I have to roll with Shields today. The TB bats are hot and they are getting contributions from bottom of the order guys as well as timely hits from everyone. Although Holland has pitched well the 2h of the season, he is not in Shields' category at this point of his career. If you compare advanced stats, you will see Shields dominates Holland in almost every category and it's not really close (e.g. Shields WAR of 4.9, Holland has 3.6, Shields has FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA in the low 3's, Holland has high 3's or low 4's, Shields has K% over 23% and Holland under 20%, etc.). With Tampa Bay being a solid team against lefties, I have to make Tampa my moneyline play in this one. I also have a strong lean on the under in this game, but I'm locking in this play now to preserve the +112. I have Tampa as -103 here, so I love the value we're getting at +112 and I'm rolling with the Rays for 1x. Good luck.

I'm on the same 2 good luck to us.

[Redscot]

Philly, bottom line is LTA is one of the most transparent dudes in SBR. He provided the links, look at them. He has been a winner in multiple sports. Sorry you are on a bad streak, here's hoping you turn it around .

[mt675826]

Agreed. I have only been following threads on here for the last couple weeks and from what I've seen, LTA is awesome - always provides insight and a unique perspective on his wagers. He doesn't bash anybody even when there are ample reasons to do so. As a rookie to this forum and sports betting in general, I appreciate people like LTA who have experience and generously share their ideas and picks. There are infinite things to learn and he helps with that. If you dislike/disagree with anything anybody says, Philly, just refrain from posting.

[shocktopme]

Leans: Cards/Phillies under (7) I'm worried about the weather, but I may lock it in now at -105 and then cancel if the weather looks like we are going to get hit by rain delays. Remember, we don't play unders when rain is involved. TB/Texas under (8.5) I still have some work to do on Holland and I'm still undecided on this one at the moment. I would lean on the Tigers today if we can get Fister at +135 or more. Anyone have a price yet?

Nice write up my friend!!!!You mave have gotten me to jump on Rays today too!!!!!Good Luck!!

[Love The Action]

I appreciate your effort but your picks haven't helped, they've been killing me. I didn't name the winning plays because they didn't win for me but even if I did,since I've been following, I do not think you'd have a winning record anyway.

I am sorry I was not more help to you. Good luck on your future endeavors.

[Love The Action]

I'm on the same 2 good luck to us.

Good luck Goat!

[PhillyFlyers]

I am sorry I was not more help to you. Good luck on your future endeavors.

Thanks bud.

I'm going to take the Phillies ML today (-215).

[Love The Action]

Anyone live in Philly? How is the weather looking?

[Louisvillekid1]

fine right now, but showers suppose to start around game time

[PhillyFlyers]

Anyone live in Philly? How is the weather looking?

Weather is fine right now. Slightly overcast but a nice day.

[Love The Action]

fine right now, but showers suppose to start around game time

Thanks Louisville. I don't think I can play the under with so much rain supposed to hit...

[Louisvillekid1]

im not weather man, but doesn't look like its going to be crazy rain just steady showers... but i hear ya... tough call here, wait closer to game time

[italianbandit]

No one's trying to start an argument. You made fun of me with my analysis yet since I've been following you, your record sucks.

Advanced sabre metrics, you can look at them all day. In the end your chances of winning a bet is still only 50-50.

Everybody was so sure of Verlander, you included. I'm sure you used your metrics in analyzing the game tonight. How'd that work out for you? He struggled.

No one can tell me that Fister, a guy who lost 13 games, lost more games than he won, is going to come into Yankee stadium in a playoff atmosphere and beat the Yankees with Nova pitching on his home mound.

I'm sure you'll disagree and we'll all find out tomorrow night.

Phillyfan, your thinking about trends and their relation to outcomes are as a baseball fan, not an investor. Your comments about LTA's record also lack an understanding of live markets. Its better to look at how many units someone is up and what their betting strategy is. Actually LTA should be up over 60 units, based on the true math of his investing but is only giving himself credit of around 40. He has achieved this betting with mainly standard units and not with chasing any of his losses. The problem with looking at just a record is that it doesn't incorporate the price one has paid for each investment.
I would try to understand his logic and calculate it with yours and just use it as another source of information. I would recommend looking at the book Conquering Risk.

I know its frustrating when you start following someone and you don't win, but its really not a fair discourse to have with someone like LTA who is up so many units. Its not gonna get very far here.

Just bet the Phillies the rest of the way, they should win it all.

[Love The Action]

Phillyfan, your thinking about trends and their relation to outcomes are a baseball fan, not an investor. Your comments about LTA's record also lack an understanding of live markets. Its better to look at how many units someone is up and what their betting strategy is. Actually LTA should be up over 60 units, based on the true math of his investing but is only giving himself credit of around 40. He has achieved this with standard units without chasing. The problem with looking at just a record is that it doesn't incorporate the price they have paid for each investment.
I would try to understand his logic and calculate it with yours and just use it as another source of information. I would recommend looking at the book Conquering Risk.

I know its frustrating when you start following someone and you don't win, but its really not a fair discourse to have with someone like LTA who has a winning record. Its not gonna get very far here.

Just bet the Phillies the rest of the way, they should win it all.

Thanks Bandit...I appreciate the sentiment. But there's no need to defend me or even respond to Philly's comments. My record speaks for itself and everyone that follows my threads knows what we're all about. I tried to engage him last night to no avail. He's got it all figured out. No need to waste any more time. Better to just wish him luck and move on.

Good luck today

What are you thinking about the Tigers/Yanks. I have to start getting ready for a wedding pretty soon and, while I love Fister, I'm not sure I'm willing to take him considering that the Tigers get one less at bat since they are starting in the bottom of the second.

[italianbandit]

I have a small bet on the Tigers to win the series. I can't get a good read on this game based on the weather and the resume game effect.

[italianbandit]

I loved Verlander game 1.

[Love The Action]

Louisville...what's up with the Philadelphia weather?

[Love The Action]

Cash the Brewers under for +1.5! Now let's cash with Shields and TB. I'm out for the night to my buddies wedding...if I lock anything else in, I will post it from my phone. Good luck to everyone tonight.

[Redscot]

Thanks Bandit...I appreciate the sentiment. But there's no need to defend me or even respond to Philly's comments. My record speaks for itself and everyone that follows my threads knows what we're all about. I tried to engage him last night to no avail. He's got it all figured out. No need to waste any more time. Better to just wish him luck and move on.

Good luck today

What are you thinking about the Tigers/Yanks. I have to start getting ready for a wedding pretty soon and, while I love Fister, I'm not sure I'm willing to take him considering that the Tigers get one less at bat since they are starting in the bottom of the second.

True and also are stuck with the lineup they constructed to face a Lefty.

[PhillyFlyers]

Philly, bottom line is LTA is one of the most transparent dudes in SBR. He provided the links, look at them. He has been a winner in multiple sports. Sorry you are on a bad streak, here's hoping you turn it around .

thank you my brother. btw I told everyone the phillies were gonna roll the cards this series. hope you took them.

[Redscot]

thank you my brother. btw I told everyone the phillies were gonna roll the cards this series. hope you took them.

Looks like you have a winner .

Check this out Philly:
Click on this link and than click on Siera to sort for that stat.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011&ind=0

This is just a small sample to give you an idea. The link above is for the NL Starting pitchers over the last month of the season. Encompasses roughly 5 starts. I have it sorted to Siera. This is an advanced statistic that try's to eliminate the attem ball, defensive deficiencies etc. We all know watching games that sometimes a pitcher is lights out but gets little dribbler type hits against him and when you look up he has given up 3 runs in 6 innings. On the other hand there are nights a pitcher is getting roped but all the line drives are finding fielders gloves. Theses advanced stats try to eliminate these "chance" happenings and put everyone on an even field (they are NOT fool proof).

So, without getting too long winded....check out who is at the top of that Siera (x fip is off the charts as well) list last 30 days...none other than Gallardo...Now look at his ERA over that span it is over 4! (You would think he has been subpar) He threw a gem today, not a guaranty but not a surprise for those who look "under the hood" of the numbers. Dig it bro? We are fortunate in this day and age that there are stat nerds who put together these in depth stats, I recommend you check them out, they will help you make money my man.

[PhillyFlyers]

Looks like you have a winner .

Check this out Philly:
Click on this link and than click on Siera to sort for that stat.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=3&season1=2011&ind=0

This is just a small sample to give you an idea. The link above is for the NL Starting pitchers over the last month of the season. Encompasses roughly 5 starts. I have it sorted to Siera. This is an advanced statistic that try's to eliminate the attem ball, defensive deficiencies etc. We all know watching games that sometimes a pitcher is lights out but gets little dribbler type hits against him and when you look up he has given up 3 runs in 6 innings. On the other hand there are nights a pitcher is getting roped but all the line drives are finding fielders gloves. Theses advanced stats try to eliminate these "chance" happenings and put everyone on an even field (they are NOT fool proof).

So, without getting too long winded....check out who is at the top of that Siera (x fip is off the charts as well) list last 30 days...none other than Gallardo...Now look at his ERA over that span it is over 4! (You would think he has been subpar) He threw a gem today, not a guaranty but not a surprise for those who look "under the hood" of the numbers. Dig it bro? We are fortunate in this day and age that there are stat nerds who put together these in depth stats, I recommend you check them out, they will help you make money my man.

thank you!

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoffs

1 - 2 = -0.6x

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 4x (Locked)

I have two concerns for this play: (1) the weather and (2) Carpenter on three days' rest. Otherwise, I have been waiting and hoping for this pitching matchup. On one side, you have Chris Carpenter who is, in my estimation, still an ace in this league. This can be evidenced by his WAR of 5, FIP of 3.06, xFIP of 3.3, tERA of 3.8 and SIERA of 3.3, a K% of 19.2%, GB/FB of 1.52. Plus, he's rocking those stats with a relatively unlucky BABIP of 3.12. Carpenter also has a great history against the Phillies in holding them to a collective batting average of .211 and OPS of .520. In fact, the only hitters who have more than a .222 BA against Carpenter are Victorino, Polanco and Utley. Everyone else is actually under .200, except for Howard who is hitting .222 lifetime against Carpenter. On the other side, we have Cliff Lee. I don't think we need to highlight this guys' stats because he is just a monster. But I will point out his whopping WAR of 6.7 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA which are all in the 2.6 range -- that is phenomenal. Just like Carpenter, Lee has a great history against his opposing lineup when you consider he has limited the Cardinals to a .224 BA and .609 OPS (including holding Pujols to a .125 BA and .425 OPS). Both Carpenter's stats against the Phils and Lee's stats against the Cards are based on a sample size of about 150 AB's, therefore, while not statistically significant, it's still noteworthy. There is no way this one gets to 7.5, so I'm locking it in at even odds and avoiding the juice (remember, price is so very important). After yesterday's scoring outburst, I expect the public to be looking at the over in this game. However, we know better because this game should lend itself to a low scoring affair similar to what we saw in the Brewers game yesterday. I expect this one to be a 4-1, 3-2 type game. The ump is Jerry Meals who has healthy strike rate of 63.73% and runs/game average around 7.6 with a slight under lean throughout his career. The weather is expect to have a 3-5mph wind blowing out. However, that is pretty insignificant and both Carpenter and Lee know to keep the ball down and how to get crucial ground ball outs. I am a bit worried about the 30% chance of rain, but I'm going to lock this one in now at plus odds, and then monitor the weather throughout the day. If it looks bad, we may buy out a portion or all of this game. I suspect juice on the under by game time, so we will probably be able to buy out for free if the rain does come. Carpenter has never pitched on three days' rest, so that is definitely a concern. However, this guy is a grizzled veteran and I expect him to rise to the occasion. He knows how important this game is and I expect him to pitch well. This will be intense Sunday night playoff atmosphere game, which is so very conducive to the under. I have this one at 6, which is a full run of variance between my model and the opener. I'm going incur just a bit of risk here with the weather and with Carpenter on three days' rest and I'm rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

[gunnersgun]

wanted to take this as well and am even more convinced with you making it a 4x play, but i'm scared shitless of the cards pen giving up a bunch of runs, are you taking that into consideration? why not a FF under, would you take that?

[Love The Action]

wanted to take this as well and am even more convinced with you making it a 4x play, but i'm scared shitless of the cards pen giving up a bunch of runs, are you taking that into consideration? why not a FF under, would you take that?

The bullpen is a concern, but is also why I like this play. The bullpen has been very solid over the last month and was actually one of the main reasons the Cards were able to overtake the Braves in the wild card. They got lit up yesterday, which will lead to the public jumping on the over. After all, if they scored 16 collective runs yesterday, surely the same will happen today. I don't think so. I expect Carpenter to at least pitch into the 7th inning despite being on 3 days' rest. From there, the bullpen should be able to limit the Phills. I just don't see either team eclipsing 4 runs today. Good luck.

[face]

cards bullpen is so bad, they cannot get anyone out. i am too scared. good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/2/11

Play #1

Cardinals/Phillies under (7)(+100) 4x (Locked)

I have two concerns for this play: (1) the weather and (2) Carpenter on three days' rest. Otherwise, I have been waiting and hoping for this pitching matchup. On one side, you have Chris Carpenter who is, in my estimation, still an ace in this league. This can be evidenced by his WAR of 5, FIP of 3.06, xFIP of 3.3, tERA of 3.8 and SIERA of 3.3, a K% of 19.2%, GB/FB of 1.52. Plus, he's rocking those stats with a relatively unlucky BABIP of 3.12. Carpenter also has a great history against the Phillies in holding them to a collective batting average of .211 and OPS of .520. In fact, the only hitters who have more than a .222 BA against Carpenter are Victorino, Polanco and Utley. Everyone else is actually under .200, except for Howard who is hitting .222 lifetime against Carpenter. On the other side, we have Cliff Lee. I don't think we need to highlight this guys' stats because he is just a monster. But I will point out his whopping WAR of 6.7 and FIP, xFIP and SIERA which are all in the 2.6 range -- that is phenomenal. Just like Carpenter, Lee has a great history against his opposing lineup when you consider he has limited the Cardinals to a .224 BA and .609 OPS (including holding Pujols to a .125 BA and .425 OPS). Both Carpenter's stats against the Phils and Lee's stats against the Cards are based on a sample size of about 150 AB's, therefore, while not statistically significant, it's still noteworthy. There is no way this one gets to 7.5, so I'm locking it in at even odds and avoiding the juice (remember, price is so very important). After yesterday's scoring outburst, I expect the public to be looking at the over in this game. However, we know better because this game should lend itself to a low scoring affair similar to what we saw in the Brewers game yesterday. I expect this one to be a 4-1, 3-2 type game. The ump is Jerry Meals who has healthy strike rate of 63.73% and runs/game average around 7.6 with a slight under lean throughout his career. The weather is expect to have a 3-5mph wind blowing out. However, that is pretty insignificant and both Carpenter and Lee know to keep the ball down and how to get crucial ground ball outs. I am a bit worried about the 30% chance of rain, but I'm going to lock this one in now at plus odds, and then monitor the weather throughout the day. If it looks bad, we may buy out a portion or all of this game. I suspect juice on the under by game time, so we will probably be able to buy out for free if the rain does come. Carpenter has never pitched on three days' rest, so that is definitely a concern. However, this guy is a grizzled veteran and I expect him to rise to the occasion. He knows how important this game is and I expect him to pitch well. This will be intense Sunday night playoff atmosphere game, which is so very conducive to the under. I have this one at 6, which is a full run of variance between my model and the opener. I'm going incur just a bit of risk here with the weather and with Carpenter on three days' rest and I'm rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Diamondbacks/Brewers under (7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm going back to the well on this one. Neither pitcher has performed that greatl against these lineups, but this is the playoffs and pitching rules. Especially, when you have two of this year's best going head to head. I suppose you could say Greinke's anxiety disorder could make him jittery and give up some runs early. However, they should just give this guy a xanax and get him out on the mound LOL. Seriously though, I think Greinke brings his A-game against a lineup that is struggling just a little bit at the moment. With the Brewers dominant bullpen, I think the under can hit every game of this series when the top starters are on the mound. I view Hudson as top guy in this league and would not be surprised to see a similar final score to this game as we saw yesterday. The ump is Marquez with his slight under lean and I believe the hitters will have to deal with some shadows in Milwaukee like yesterday if they leave the roof open and the sun is out. I think both Hudson and Greinke perform well and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

cards bullpen is so bad, they cannot get anyone out. i am too scared. good luck.

Good luck to you as well


In the 30 games that the Cards bullpen was used after Aug. 25, relievers allowed one or no earned runs 22 times. Plus, both Edwin Jackson and Jake Westbrook are available in relief to help out today. I think you are putting too much emphasis on what happened yesterday.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. On both these.

[Trivial]

I take it the Yankees game is too unpredictable?

[Love The Action]

I take it the Yankees game is too unpredictable?

I don't see Garcia as being an advantage over Sherzer. No play for me.