LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Here's an interesting stat, nothing to do with betting, just an observation.
A.J. Burnett, what an enigma. Great "stuff". . So Burnett has a wicked curve in his arsenal which he uses 30% of the time on the mound. Naturally, when a pitcher gets down in the count he goes more fastball, less off speed, well Burnett is just ridiculous. on counts 2-0,3-0,3-1 he uses his curve 1 % of the time! When he is ahead of the count you can expect it 50% +. That is F-ing ridiculous, can't believe they haven't corrected this tendency a tad at least. He's also good for a wild pitch a game

.

And with that said, I lean to him and the yanks over porcello and tigers...

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 11:56 AM

Just took a unit on the Rangers for -103. GL.

**Redscot** · 10-04-11, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

And with that said, I lean to him and the yanks over porcello and tigers...

I do too bro.

Meanwhile the Cardinal line is tightening......I grabbed them +120 this morning. In retrospect taking the +1 R/L might have been the smarter play. Yank line is gonna get out of control soon...........

**Redscot** · 10-04-11, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Just took a unit on the Rangers for -103. GL.

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game

.

**815Sox** · 10-04-11, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game

.

It was pretty difficult to enjoy any yesterday, that is for sure. Yesterdays TB/Texas game... sheesh. Anyways I like how this started today. I do a volunteer gig in an after school program. Gotta make sure I pay attention to the kids and not the phone..

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game

.

LOL. I hear you. I am at work. No TV or Internet acess except my phone so all I have is the odd highlight. Makes it easier. :-)

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-04-11, 02:54 PM

Moore is a beast

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Moore is a beast

Too bad he can't hit for tb too...

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-04-11, 03:33 PM

Screw it, ur just on the under right? Thoughts on total/side yanks game?

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

Screw it, ur just on the under right? Thoughts on total/side yanks game?

I can get under (10)(-115) on the yaks under right now...really thinking about that one now...will post if i play it.

**Redscot** · 10-04-11, 03:59 PM

What you thinking about tonight LTA?

I kinda think the Yanks roll, -1 R/L? but obviously Burnett is a bit of a wildcard. The Yank team total over 4.5 is staring at me too, I rarely make those type of plays though.......

Feels like Zona should get at least 1 game at home, but I really don't trust Collmenter and needing 10 runs for the over seems like a lot too.......

**No coincidences** · 10-04-11, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I can get under (10)(-115) on the yaks under right now...really thinking about that one now...will post if i play it.

If that doesn't go to 10 at Pinny or Matchbook, that might be the play of the night.

**alvinho** · 10-04-11, 04:07 PM

u10 -104 at pinny

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by alvinho

u10 -104 at pinny

True. I might do U10 at Pinny. Good value there. I think I might go against most and do +1RL for Detroit also.

**Pick'nParlays** · 10-04-11, 05:11 PM

under

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

under

You are too mysterious P&P

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

What you thinking about tonight LTA?

I kinda think the Yanks roll, -1 R/L? but obviously Burnett is a bit of a wildcard. The Yank team total over 4.5 is staring at me too, I rarely make those type of plays though.......

Feels like Zona should get at least 1 game at home, but I really don't trust Collmenter and needing 10 runs for the over seems like a lot too.......

Im not paying -120 for the yanks, but the under continues to intrigue me. I can't get a good read on the late game right now....

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 05:29 PM

LTA. Do you agree Detroit has value at +113 tonight then?

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 05:57 PM

I could not resist. Locked in for Detroit ML and U10. GL.

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 06:12 PM

Pinny is now back to 9.5. Glad I got in the U10. GL.

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

LTA. Do you agree Detroit has value at +113 tonight then?

A bit...but I would not play detriot in this spot. The yanks are the right play, but they are not worth it at -120 imho. Remember, they opened as a dog. In general, there is no money to be made chasing a 30 cent line move and paying the worst possible price. Over time, that is a losing proposition. In this case, you are paying -120 so it's not that glaring. But if it opened at -120 and closed at -150, that is more painful on a loss but the concept remains the same. The yanks were a solid play at -105 or less. Now, its a pass for me. Others might differ, but that's the way I approach this business. There is a price at which an investment is underwater. Remember, we like to buy at the cheapest price possible. "Buy low, sell high" is not only for stocks. To me, a significant portion of successful sports investing results from discipline and knowing what price is profitable and what price constitutes a loss regardless of outcome. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Pinny is now back to 9.5. Glad I got in the U10. GL.

That's a solid wager

Good luck!

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

A bit...but I would not play detriot in this spot. The yanks are the right play, but they are not worth it at -120 imho. Remember, they opened as a dog. In general, there is no money to be made chasing a 30 cent line move and paying the worst possible price. Over time, that is a losing proposition. In this case, you are paying -120 so it's not that glaring. But if it opened at -120 and closed at -150, that is more painful on a loss but the concept remains the same. The yanks were a solid play at -105 or less. Now, its a pass for me. Others might differ, but that's the way I approach this business. There is a price at which an investment is underwater. Remember, we like to buy at the cheapest price possible. "Buy low, sell high" is not only for stocks. To me, a significant portion of successful sports investing results from discipline and knowing what price is profitable and what price constitutes a loss regardless of outcome. Good luck.

You are a very, very wise man. It is no wonder everyone respects you so much, and why you make money while others maybe, not so much.

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That's a solid wager

Good luck!

Thanks - you too.

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 07:02 PM

Big money coming in on the Yanks under...got stuck in traffic driving home and missed the move back down to 9.5. My model has 9 as the total, so there was a whole lot more value at 10 than at 9.5. Still might be a play though....

**815Sox** · 10-04-11, 07:12 PM

Any thoughts on the other game tonight LTA? Josh Collmenter feels like a hard variable to judge, but I may be overthinking it.

**Redscot** · 10-04-11, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Big money coming in on the Yanks under...got stuck in traffic driving home and missed the move back down to 9.5. My model has 9 as the total, so there was a whole lot more value at 10 than at 9.5. Still might be a play though....

Grabbed it here at 10 -110

. Am also on Yanks R/L -1 + 121 and Yanks TT over 4.5

what a mess

Great call on the under my man

, they never make it easy do they

.
Bol tonight all

**Trivial** · 10-04-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Grabbed it here at 10 -110

. Am also on Yanks R/L -1 + 121 and Yanks TT over 4.5

what a mess

Great call on the under my man

, they never make it easy do they

.
Bol tonight all

Definitely was sweating that under as well in STL. One more run, and we were toast at the bottom of the 9th.

We cashed. Phew.

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by 815Sox

Any thoughts on the other game tonight LTA? Josh Collmenter feels like a hard variable to judge, but I may be overthinking it.

Just got home...going to eat some dinner with the fam and then do a little work on that one. I have not looked at that game in-depth yet and don't have a feel for it at the moment. I have an initial lean to the over, but I can't really say for sure right now. I'll post it later if I play anything.

**Donnie Brasco** · 10-04-11, 07:28 PM

Sweet, hit the side and total in phills game, i bought yanks under 10@ 5dimes, thought that was the smart play. Good luck guys. Also on under 9 in arizona.

**815Sox** · 10-04-11, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Just got home...going to eat some dinner with the fam and then do a little work on that one. I have not looked at that game in-depth yet and don't have a feel for it at the moment. I have an initial lean to the over, but I can't really say for sure right now. I'll post it later if I play anything.

Enjoy dinner and the family time. I am about to eat some Japanese myself

**Love The Action** · 10-04-11, 07:37 PM

MLB Playoff Action Parlay (Not for Records win or lose)

Yankees ML (-117)/Under 9.5 (-105)

Figured I would take a little action on this game since I missed all the great price moves. This one pays out 2.4 times your wager amount. Remember, I always set aside money to make action wagers that I'm not worried about losing. That way, I can play some games strictly for the action without taking a hit to my overall BR. However, I don't make those action wagers unless I'm 100% convinced they cash. In this game, I really like the Yanks and the under. Good luck.

**BigDan** · 10-04-11, 08:10 PM

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

**BennyFang** · 10-04-11, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

BOL. May you wake up richer with a sore c__k.

**No coincidences** · 10-04-11, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by BigDan

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

Cards were a cocktease today buddy.