LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

Here's an interesting stat, nothing to do with betting, just an observation.
A.J. Burnett, what an enigma. Great "stuff". . So Burnett has a wicked curve in his arsenal which he uses 30% of the time on the mound. Naturally, when a pitcher gets down in the count he goes more fastball, less off speed, well Burnett is just ridiculous. on counts 2-0,3-0,3-1 he uses his curve 1 % of the time! When he is ahead of the count you can expect it 50% +. That is F-ing ridiculous, can't believe they haven't corrected this tendency a tad at least. He's also good for a wild pitch a game .

And with that said, I lean to him and the yanks over porcello and tigers...

[Trivial]

Just took a unit on the Rangers for -103. GL.

[Redscot]

And with that said, I lean to him and the yanks over porcello and tigers...

I do too bro. Meanwhile the Cardinal line is tightening......I grabbed them +120 this morning. In retrospect taking the +1 R/L might have been the smarter play. Yank line is gonna get out of control soon...........

[Redscot]

Just took a unit on the Rangers for -103. GL.

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game .

[815Sox]

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game .

It was pretty difficult to enjoy any yesterday, that is for sure. Yesterdays TB/Texas game... sheesh. Anyways I like how this started today. I do a volunteer gig in an after school program. Gotta make sure I pay attention to the kids and not the phone..

[Trivial]

GL Tivial, I think it's a solid play, just can't pull the trigger here.....Might be because I just wanna sit back and enjoy a game .

LOL. I hear you. I am at work. No TV or Internet acess except my phone so all I have is the odd highlight. Makes it easier. :-)

[Donnie Brasco]

Moore is a beast

[Love The Action]

Moore is a beast

Too bad he can't hit for tb too...

[Donnie Brasco]

Screw it, ur just on the under right? Thoughts on total/side yanks game?

[Love The Action]

Screw it, ur just on the under right? Thoughts on total/side yanks game?

I can get under (10)(-115) on the yaks under right now...really thinking about that one now...will post if i play it.

[Redscot]

What you thinking about tonight LTA?

I kinda think the Yanks roll, -1 R/L? but obviously Burnett is a bit of a wildcard. The Yank team total over 4.5 is staring at me too, I rarely make those type of plays though.......

Feels like Zona should get at least 1 game at home, but I really don't trust Collmenter and needing 10 runs for the over seems like a lot too.......

[No coincidences]

I can get under (10)(-115) on the yaks under right now...really thinking about that one now...will post if i play it.

If that doesn't go to 10 at Pinny or Matchbook, that might be the play of the night.

[alvinho]

u10 -104 at pinny

[Trivial]

u10 -104 at pinny

True. I might do U10 at Pinny. Good value there. I think I might go against most and do +1RL for Detroit also.

[Pick'nParlays]

under

[Love The Action]

under

You are too mysterious P&P

[Love The Action]

What you thinking about tonight LTA?

I kinda think the Yanks roll, -1 R/L? but obviously Burnett is a bit of a wildcard. The Yank team total over 4.5 is staring at me too, I rarely make those type of plays though.......

Feels like Zona should get at least 1 game at home, but I really don't trust Collmenter and needing 10 runs for the over seems like a lot too.......

Im not paying -120 for the yanks, but the under continues to intrigue me. I can't get a good read on the late game right now....

[Trivial]

LTA. Do you agree Detroit has value at +113 tonight then?

[Trivial]

I could not resist. Locked in for Detroit ML and U10. GL.

[Trivial]

Pinny is now back to 9.5. Glad I got in the U10. GL.

[Love The Action]

LTA. Do you agree Detroit has value at +113 tonight then?

A bit...but I would not play detriot in this spot. The yanks are the right play, but they are not worth it at -120 imho. Remember, they opened as a dog. In general, there is no money to be made chasing a 30 cent line move and paying the worst possible price. Over time, that is a losing proposition. In this case, you are paying -120 so it's not that glaring. But if it opened at -120 and closed at -150, that is more painful on a loss but the concept remains the same. The yanks were a solid play at -105 or less. Now, its a pass for me. Others might differ, but that's the way I approach this business. There is a price at which an investment is underwater. Remember, we like to buy at the cheapest price possible. "Buy low, sell high" is not only for stocks. To me, a significant portion of successful sports investing results from discipline and knowing what price is profitable and what price constitutes a loss regardless of outcome. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Pinny is now back to 9.5. Glad I got in the U10. GL.

That's a solid wager

Good luck!

[Trivial]

A bit...but I would not play detriot in this spot. The yanks are the right play, but they are not worth it at -120 imho. Remember, they opened as a dog. In general, there is no money to be made chasing a 30 cent line move and paying the worst possible price. Over time, that is a losing proposition. In this case, you are paying -120 so it's not that glaring. But if it opened at -120 and closed at -150, that is more painful on a loss but the concept remains the same. The yanks were a solid play at -105 or less. Now, its a pass for me. Others might differ, but that's the way I approach this business. There is a price at which an investment is underwater. Remember, we like to buy at the cheapest price possible. "Buy low, sell high" is not only for stocks. To me, a significant portion of successful sports investing results from discipline and knowing what price is profitable and what price constitutes a loss regardless of outcome. Good luck.

You are a very, very wise man. It is no wonder everyone respects you so much, and why you make money while others maybe, not so much.

[Trivial]

That's a solid wager

Good luck!

Thanks - you too.

[Love The Action]

Big money coming in on the Yanks under...got stuck in traffic driving home and missed the move back down to 9.5. My model has 9 as the total, so there was a whole lot more value at 10 than at 9.5. Still might be a play though....

[815Sox]

Any thoughts on the other game tonight LTA? Josh Collmenter feels like a hard variable to judge, but I may be overthinking it.

[Redscot]

Big money coming in on the Yanks under...got stuck in traffic driving home and missed the move back down to 9.5. My model has 9 as the total, so there was a whole lot more value at 10 than at 9.5. Still might be a play though....

Grabbed it here at 10 -110 . Am also on Yanks R/L -1 + 121 and Yanks TT over 4.5 what a mess

Great call on the under my man , they never make it easy do they .
Bol tonight all

[Trivial]

Grabbed it here at 10 -110 . Am also on Yanks R/L -1 + 121 and Yanks TT over 4.5 what a mess

Great call on the under my man , they never make it easy do they .
Bol tonight all

Definitely was sweating that under as well in STL. One more run, and we were toast at the bottom of the 9th.

We cashed. Phew.

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on the other game tonight LTA? Josh Collmenter feels like a hard variable to judge, but I may be overthinking it.

Just got home...going to eat some dinner with the fam and then do a little work on that one. I have not looked at that game in-depth yet and don't have a feel for it at the moment. I have an initial lean to the over, but I can't really say for sure right now. I'll post it later if I play anything.

[Donnie Brasco]

Sweet, hit the side and total in phills game, i bought yanks under 10@ 5dimes, thought that was the smart play. Good luck guys. Also on under 9 in arizona.

[815Sox]

Just got home...going to eat some dinner with the fam and then do a little work on that one. I have not looked at that game in-depth yet and don't have a feel for it at the moment. I have an initial lean to the over, but I can't really say for sure right now. I'll post it later if I play anything.

Enjoy dinner and the family time. I am about to eat some Japanese myself

[Love The Action]

MLB Playoff Action Parlay (Not for Records win or lose)

Yankees ML (-117)/Under 9.5 (-105)

Figured I would take a little action on this game since I missed all the great price moves. This one pays out 2.4 times your wager amount. Remember, I always set aside money to make action wagers that I'm not worried about losing. That way, I can play some games strictly for the action without taking a hit to my overall BR. However, I don't make those action wagers unless I'm 100% convinced they cash. In this game, I really like the Yanks and the under. Good luck.

[BigDan]

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

[BennyFang]

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

BOL. May you wake up richer with a sore c__k.

[No coincidences]

still got the 10 at bodog when i came home, slightly buzzed from watching cards crush my dreams. played it str8 and threw it in a little drunken 3 teamer with mil and over. fukkk it, im pissed off, im grudge fukking the wife and passing out....GL everyone.

Cards were a cocktease today buddy.