RL Away Team Experiment

[ColdBeerHere]

Since I don't like juice, thought I would try a little experiment and see where this goes....

We'll run it on a system.....One pick a night...The pick is the away team in the schedule that averages the most runs per game....Right now the Yankees lead the majors in that category so they will be involved in the bets a lot....This should also lead to a decent amount of alternate run lines...

This link lists runs scored for road teams:

http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/team-stat/team-batting-category

I'm also going to run it on an aggressive chase.....3 chase max, and it will go 1-3-6.....

Nothing is set in stone here, so we'll see where this goes.....Maybe add some filters or something at some point....

BOL to those who dare to tail Now Let's Get Em' !

[MrShrink]

Interested...

[ColdBeerHere]

Hey Shrink

Looks like Tampa will be the first play...Some things are looking nice here:

1) Last month TB was 7-6 on the road however they would have covered the RL 6 out of those 7 times

2) Felix Hernandez threw a lot of pitches last outing against the Yanks - If anyone has a website link that shows # of pitches thrown in each individual game or last game out that would be cool

3) We are going to be playing a RRL....Seattle RL right now is +190....We should have some real nice dog odds here

We'll have to wait till the rest of the odds come out

[ColdBeerHere]

Hmmm, we have an odd line here....Seattle is the fav and if you take them RL you get +190 (reduced juice - regular juice is +180).....

Tampa who is the dog has the alternate RL at +170

That just doesn't make any sense to me at all...what am I missing here ? Well it is a late game so no need to rush and put a bet in....Might as well wait and see what happens to the line throughout the day

[Lord and Master]

2) Felix Hernandez threw a lot of pitches last outing against the Yanks - If anyone has a website link that shows # of pitches thrown in each individual game or last game out that would be cool

there is zero correlation between a high number of pitches thrown(120+) and performance one way or the other. where do you guys come up with this stuff?

[Lord and Master]

Hmmm, we have an odd line here....Seattle is the fav and if you take them RL you get +190 (reduced juice - regular juice is +180).....

Tampa who is the dog has the alternate RL at +170

That just doesn't make any sense to me at all...what am I missing here ? Well it is a late game so no need to rush and put a bet in....Might as well wait and see what happens to the line throughout the day

tampa's offense is alot better thats why. you will notice that teams that score more runs have tighter prices ML to RL than teams that can't score

[ColdBeerHere]

there is zero correlation between a high number of pitches thrown(120+) and performance one way or the other. where do you guys come up with this stuff?

I'm just trying to look at all angles....someone on here mentioned # of pitches thrown the other day...I suppose you are right...That's why they get 4 days of rest or whatever, right ?

[tatddy]

there is zero correlation between a high number of pitches thrown(120+) and performance one way or the other. where do you guys come up with this stuff?

You can't use this as an absolute. There are instances where pitchers historically flop after throwing X number of pitches on back to back outings. Saying there is zero correlation is false. In most cases it means nothing but there are certain spots where it's useful information. To be sure, it's worth this guy researching.

[Lord and Master]

I'm just trying to look at all angles....someone on here mentioned # of pitches thrown the other day...I suppose you are right...That's why they get 4 days of rest or whatever, right ?

sorry i was harsh....but there's no correlation between high pitch counts and performance in subsequent starts

[Lord and Master]

You can't use this as an absolute.

yes i can, go back over the last 5 years and check for yourself

There are instances where pitchers historically flop after throwing X number of pitches on back to back outings.

you are making this up unless its related to a specific pitcher because it is false league wide

Saying there is zero correlation is false.

i've done the research i know the numbers and you are just flat out wrong

In most cases it means nothing but there are certain spots where it's useful information.

information is only useful when its correct, to imply that pitchers have either bad or good starts partly resulting from a previous high pitch count outing is wrong

[tatddy]

yes i can, go back over the last 5 years and check for yourself



you are making this up unless its related to a specific pitcher because it is false league wide



i've done the research i know the numbers and you are just flat out wrong



information is only useful when its correct, to imply that pitchers have either bad or good starts partly resulting from a previous high pitch count outing is wrong

Starts over 125 pitches, or 115+ pitches in 3 consecutive starts, have shown marginally lower K/9 and increased BB/9 rates. Fact. Is it a significant factor, no. Is it built into the line? Probably not.

[Lord and Master]

Starts over 125 pitches, or 115+ pitches in 3 consecutive starts, have shown marginally lower K/9 and increased BB/9 rates. Fact. Is it a significant factor, no. Is it built into the line? Probably not.

its built into the line, betting purely based on that factor would have lost you money on both sides over a really large sample in recent years

[tatddy]

its built into the line, betting purely based on that factor would have lost you money on both sides over a really large sample in recent years

Of course. Why would anyone bet solely based on that analysis? It's shown to be more significant with power pitchers. Guys like Livan Hernandez and Zambrano can throw until their arm is blue and be fine the next start.

[Lord and Master]

Of course. Why would anyone bet solely based on that analysis?

I don't understand how you can take that into account at all when has a neutral effect on whether a bet profitable. its irrelevant

[ColdBeerHere]

Tampa still listed at +170 on the RRL @ DIMES

[onacloud]

I'll tail a couple with you and see where this goes should be interesting.

[ColdBeerHere]

hey cloud welcome....yea should be fun to see where it goes....For record purposes I will track this as 1 unit per initial bet....Though I am only going to put .5 unit on that inital unit to start just to see where it goes.....

I'm also working on some filters that I will try and implement at some point.....

Ok so I just booked the first bet :

Tampa RRL +170

[ColdBeerHere]

lol wow....Tampa gettin' blown out.....Really didn't like the fact that Hernandez was pitching....Maybe I'll look adding some parameters or maybe even filters for tomorrow night.....

[ColdBeerHere]

That was an embarrassment last night......So now I'm in the process now of making a filter system...

It's actually quite involved as I already have 11 filters and am thinking of more....I am in the process of adding values to those filters....

It appears I will not always be picking the highest scoring road team....

I should have a pick for tonight at some point today

EDIT: Wow , this is turning out to be quite involved and time consuming....Half the reason being this is my first time entering the data in this system, and crunching the numbers....I have to go take care of some business stuff....I'll be back later...I am going to try and cap one of the later games hopefully

[ColdBeerHere]

Stay tuned...Just about done with running the first set of numbers through the new system...I will have some numbers shortly...This will be interesting....

[ColdBeerHere]

So i made up a filter system, which assigns values to different variables....It was a lot of number crunching so I only did the National League for today....I'm sure once I get used to it I will do both leagues no problem....

Anyways, here are the matchups with the team's power rankings for today (these change for each match up) in parenthesis.....then the difference and who has the advantage.....

WSH (-56) @ ARI (-6.6) ARI 50

HOU (-28.2) @ SDP (-58.25) HOU 30.05

COL (+13.7) @ SF (-18) COL 31.7

CHC (-57.1) @ STL (+88.3) STL 145.4

ATL (+39.8) @ NYM (+33) ATL 6.8

MIL (-28.1) @ FLA (-62.5) MIL 34.4

LAD (+34.4) @ CIN (+96.6) CIN 62.2

PHI (-2.7) @ PIT (-19.5) PHI 16.8

Looks like the play of the day would be STL....

Now as far as the Road team RL I am not sure b/c though some teams like houston or mil have an advantage their numbers are in the negative....Colorado may be a to road team to pick....not sure yet what these numbers even mean....Let's see what happens in the games today....As I go through some days here I should start to see some kind of pattern....

[ColdBeerHere]

WOW ! I just compared my numbers with the lines....I got Houston as the favorite in this game....

5dimes has Houston as a +138 ml ! and a WHOPPING +240 RRL !!! I am VERY curious to see the outcome of that game now !

One thing I have not taken into consideration however is bull pens....That may be a wild card...I was thinking of filtering in the bullpens in certain situations...Judging from Houston's SP it could be a factor in this one...Still very curious to see the outcome here....

STL may not be the play of the day odd wise...But I have that game as the most lopsided.

PHI rl @ +195 looks to be of good value.

CIN ml -109 looks good.

MIL rl +125 unsure on this one.

COL rl looks to be a good bet.

Well, let's see what happens today....I probably will have to filter the pens into the equation at some point

[Shack]

Good luck. All trends eventually go sour but ride if you can.

[ColdBeerHere]

It appears this thread has turned into me developing a handicap system....I will probably be picking ml and rl....I want to keep with my original idea of running a RL chase....I need some more data so that I can see things a little more clearly here....

That being said, the system did pick Houston as the favorite tonight...I might place something small on it...+138 ml and +240rrl....hmmm...

maybe bet half a unit on ml, and half a unit on rrl.....Yea why not.....I'll do it....

[ColdBeerHere]

Well in it's infant stage the system would have gone 4-4 today losing .32 units....Still some tweaking to do...

[ColdBeerHere]

I think I am going to add the bull pens into the equation...It defintely would have made a difference in that SDP/HOU game....

Anyone have any idea in terms the # of games I should go back to track to see if a bull pen is tired or not ? I was thinking of using data from maybe the last 5 to 7 days....

[ColdBeerHere]

I think I am going to add the bull pens into the equation...It defintely would have made a difference in that SDP/HOU game....

Anyone have any idea in terms the # of games I should go back to track to see if a bull pen is tired or not ? I was thinking of using data from maybe the last 5 to 7 days....

bump.....still looking for an answer to this question.....any help is appreciated

[GTforme]

Found ya' CBH!

[ColdBeerHere]

Found ya' CBH!

Hey GT ! Wassssss shakin' ?

Any idea to my question up above? I am looking for # of days to go back and see # of innings pitched to determine if a bull pen is tired ....

I was originally thinking 5 to 7 days, but then i thought it over.....It seems 3 days might be the way to go...b/c 4 days and a pitcher can pitch again

[GTforme]

Hey GT ! Wassssss shakin' ?

Any idea to my question up above? I am looking for # of days to go back and see # of innings pitched to determine if a bull pen is tired ....

I was originally thinking 5 to 7 days, but then i thought it over.....It seems 3 days might be the way to go...b/c 4 days and a pitcher can pitch again

Hmmmm. I'll have to think about that one!

[ColdBeerHere]

Well I went with 3 days pitching.....

I also added a few more filters to the equation....I think this may have made a difference in that HOU/SD game last night....Some times I take it personal when I lose....My gf just said I look like some kind of accountant with my laptop, pens, calculator, and papers all over

Anyways, here's the power rankings the system came up with tonight:

NYY (+61) @ LAA (-43) yanks +104

TB (-29) @ SEA (-19) Sea +10

COL (-17) @ SF (+19) sfg +36

WSH (-56) @ ARZ (+81) arz +137

ATL (+29) @ NYM (-27) braves +56

interesting note Arizona was the first club the have all positive numbers entered into the system

[ColdBeerHere]

Well so far the system is 3-1 tonight pending the braves/mets game....I wish I had gotten odds for these games before hand, not sure if the system picked all the favs or not

edit: I found odds, using lines from bet jamaica

COL -107 SF -103

WSH +154 ARI -164

ATL -119 nym +109

NYY -118 LAA +108

TB +137 sea -147

So far 3-1 ....+1.36 units...will have a positive day no matter what

I also would like to incorporate the Road Team Runline chase possibly....Maybe I would take a road team RL if their power ranking or power ranking difference was at a certain number.....

Tonight the yanks would have cashed RL

Braves remain to be seen

[ColdBeerHere]

updated system is 3-2 +.17 units

[GTforme]

Well, you got it over .500 yesterday, CBH

[ColdBeerHere]

GF's b-day yesterday...had to get away from wagering for a night.....So I didn't do power rankings yesterday, but I am just starting now to crunch the #'s for today's power rankings.....I'm interested in seeing what it spits out for BOS/NYY....