RL Away Team Experiment

[ColdBeerHere]

Today's games, PR and odds:

arz -25 @ pit -28 arz 3 ARZ -113 PIT +103

chc -95 @ cin +33 cin 128 CIN -165 CHC +155

stl +28 @ hou -55 stl 83 STL -131 HOU +121

nym -54 @ mil +90 mil 144 NYM +172 MIL -182

col -17 @ sd -77 col 60 COL -146 SD +136

wsh -42 @ sf +6 sf 48 WSH +124 SF -134

min -62 @ cle -26 cle 36 MIN +121 CLE -131

bos E @ nyy +37 nyy 37 BOS -125 NYY +115

det -11 @ tex +50 tex 61 DET +125 TEX -135

sea +12 @ cws +31 cws 19 SEA -115 CWS +105

Interesting...My system has the Yanks, and the White Sox as the favorites

Still not picking many dogs...I will continually be looking at any correlations between PR and lines/odds...Maybe not play higher juiced games or something.

[ColdBeerHere]

Would like to maybe get that RL chase going tonight...I'm currently looking at ARI, STL, or COL

OK i just booked STL...I was leaning towards them...They also are the highest ranked road team for runs scored per game at a whopping 5.7 !

I will start tracking the RL chase beginning with this game...BOL all

STL -1.5 (+125)

[GTforme]

I'll tail ya' CBH!

[alex81]

You can also look at betting teams @ -1... This way you get a push instead of a loss if the road team wins but doesn't cover the spread.

[ColdBeerHere]

I'll tail ya' CBH!

Cool , Welcome aboard

[ColdBeerHere]

I'll tail ya' CBH!

Wait a minute....I think you're the first person to tail me on this....Is this some kind of "mercy / feel sorry for CBH" tail?

[GTforme]

Wait a minute....I think you're the first person to tail me on this....Is this some kind of "mercy / feel sorry for CBH" tail?

NO... it's an, "if I tail you... maybe I can keep you straight and put more responsibility on you to pick winners, kind of tail!

Besides... if we chase, we're bound to hit a winner sooner or later

[ColdBeerHere]

NO... it's an, "if I tail you... maybe I can keep you straight and put more responsibility on you to pick winners, kind of tail!

Besides... if we chase, we're bound to hit a winner sooner or later

ok, sounds like a deal

Let's make some money then


be back a bit later...runnin' to the depot w/ the gf for gardening stuff...St.Louis up 2-0 early !

[ColdBeerHere]

Cash that one GT...we're 1-0...up 1.25 units to start

[GTforme]

Yep... short chase..........SWEEEEEEEEEEEET!

Thanx my friend!!!!!!

Let's make it 2-0... you lead, I'll follow!

[ColdBeerHere]

GT, stand by brother man because I may have come across something startling with the system...I will release the news after the SF/WSH game...but I may be onto something....This could be big.

[ColdBeerHere]

OK, so here's the deal...After I cap the games I come up with a Power Ranking (PR) for each team on that particular night....It varies each night due to Starting Pitcher, Bull Pens, etc......

Since I tweeked the system 2 days ago I have drawn a correlation between PR and the lines established by the books.....Basically what I do is subtract the PR between the two teams.....If that difference is larger than the difference between the high and low vig I take the fav.....If that difference is smaller than the difference between the high and low vig I take the dog.....

Now I didn't cap all the games for the last 2 days..for various reasons....This is what I capped though the last 2 days....

Yesterday the system went 4-1 up 3.63 units....

Tonight the system went 6-4 up 3.03 units....

The 2 day total is 10-5 up a scary 6.66 units.....

Guess I will have to cap the games tomorrow and see what happens...Don't count on the early 12pm games to get done...That's too early for me lately

But that will still leave 13 games to cap for tomorrow....Pending any one's that don't fit within the parameters of the system.....

I'm really excited and feel I could be onto something...I know this is a small sample....But so far so good....

And oh yea, I also may be finding a correlation (s) in teams that win the RL wager


EDIT: oh yea the system was soooo close to picking detroit tonight, when in fact it may have....I am changing the way I am rounding off numbers....With the new number rounding system Detroit may have been a pick.

[GTforme]

I'm not going to ask you a lot of Q's CBH, at least not right now. You have more than enough to do just trying to get thru caping and PR.Just posting it all up is very time consuming.


I will continue to read thru as you post up and run it thru my engineering mind. Feel free to PM me and I'll do the same, if needed.

Very nice, and hard, work

[Cranium]

Thanks for the posts and continued success!

[ColdBeerHere]

Thanks guys...It is time consuming....Yesterday took me over a little 2 hours or so....And here I told my gf I wasn't going to get into number crunching....I guess I took that TB rl personal...I hate losing, and I am very competitive at nature...I guess this and making is what drives me...What I like about this system so far is that it picks the team based on value of the line....It will tell us if the books are juicing the lines way too much....

The coffee just got done brewin', so I'm gonna start cappin'.....Looks like WSH/SF, COL/SD, BAL/OAK, ARZ/PIT are all out - not enough SP data....So first system pick for the day will be BOS/NYY....Be back later with the PR's and picks

[ColdBeerHere]

Well here's the system picks for tonight :

(Team, PR, odds)

LAA -15 (+172) @ PHI +67 (-182) pick is LAD +172

STL +107 (-139) @ HOU -30 (+129) pick is HOU +129

ATL -8 (+109) @ FLA -44 (-119) pick is ATL +109

NYM -68 (+148) @ MIL +49 (-158) pick is MIL -158

BOS +9 (+124) @ NYY +25 (-134) pick is BOS +124

DET +7 (+161) @ TEX +80 (-171) pick is DET +161

TOR +87 (+108) @ KC -43 (-118) pick is TOR +108

SEA -35 (+133) @ CWS -5 (-143) pick is SEA +133

TB +61 (+128) @ LAA +30 (-138) pick is TB +128


Well this is rather interesting...System picked only one fav tonight....Are the books trying to make too much money with the juice tonight ? Are they being greedy ?

Personally I like the plays as I hate the juice....Can't wait to see how these games pan out

I''m going to start looking soon at a RL play for tonight.....

Also, anyone reading these picks please be aware this system is brand new....I am not betting any of these games yet.

[ColdBeerHere]

Well for our RL play tonight I like STL -1.5 again, and I also like TOR RRL...Toronto #6 on the road in scoring....Also there is a large discrepancy between PR between TOR and KC tonight...though I am not sure how much that plays a part in the final score yet.....

They system says to take HOU ml, but looking at the stats I have to say I also like STL rl as well

GT, you out there? you got any input on these ? I'm thinking one of these plays, or no play tonight on the RL....

[GTforme]

Yeah, I'm here!... and thinking?

[GTforme]

From what I see the books like STL to win, but HOU to cover the RL

[GTforme]

From what I looked at right quick, The puiblic's on STL RL about 2 to 1

[GTforme]

If you're going to chase, I'd say... ok, make STL RL the play. Doesn't everything point to that?

[GTforme]

If I played the HOU, it would have to be the +1.5 RL play!

[ColdBeerHere]

If you're going to chase, I'd say... ok, make STL RL the play. Doesn't everything point to that?

Haha I like both HOU ml, and STL rl....either or look good to me

Like I said though TOR has a much higher PR than KC today but I have not drawn any correlations yet between PR and final score.

So up to you, we are doing that aggressive 3 game chase here. So we have a little leeway here.

5dimes has STL rl at +115, and TOR rrl at +158.

Go ahead and pick one.....And we'll roll with your pick

[GTforme]

WHOOPIE! STL RL.... again!

[GTforme]

RG has a MLB totals play up. NHL... you on Bruins and how?

[ColdBeerHere]

Official RL play tonight : STL rl +120

[ColdBeerHere]

RG has a MLB totals play up. NHL... you on Bruins and how?

RG?

And, no I am not on the Bruins...Taking the Canucks tonight.....I picked them to win the Cup a few weeks ago....I got them a couple of weeks ago to win the series at +160....

I am chase betting them at .5 units per game...I won the first two games obviously, but it was gf's b-day last game and I didn't get around to betting them...worked out in my favor.

Anyways thanks for reminding me, I am going to place this Nuck's bet now...Actually since VAN is getting plus odds I am going to bet a unit on them tonight...If I lose I chase bet them next game to win a unit and a half cause that game will be juiced.

[GTforme]

RoagBettor!

[ColdBeerHere]

RoagBettor!

Ah , thanks been so busy doin' stuff here haven't checked his thread in a while...I'll have to check it out

[GTforme]

NHL - (van vs. Bos) - goal in the 1st 10mins of game?
[2] no -125

[ColdBeerHere]

NHL - (van vs. Bos) - goal in the 1st 10mins of game?
[2] no -125

I kind of like that...Playoffs are tighter in general...Two really good goalies...I got enough things going on already today.....But I wouldn't say you were dumb for betting that.

[GTforme]

Yeah, I have Canucks series too... But Boston tonite ML -125

[GTforme]

I'll leave you alone for awhile, I know you're busy....

[ColdBeerHere]

Wow, once again it looks like the system kicked ass....I will post results for today, and the 3 day cumulative total since I made an adjustment at the conclusion of the TB/LAA....

I think I may actually bet the system picks tomorrow.

[ColdBeerHere]

RG has a MLB totals play up. NHL... you on Bruins and how?

Congrats on your play.....

Now let's hope VAN comes back hard friday for the victory....I think they will.