RL Away Team Experiment

GTforme · 06-13-11, 05:40 PM

If your time is just too short.... I've been tailing this guy w/success... and it's Cincy again... vs. LAD this time!

. You can check it against your system!

hey all y'all...hit my dog play from yesterday to go to 7-0 on posted playz with a +$812 return cuz all playz was + money playz...overall for my year im at 34-22 and +$1889...for today im likin the dodger over...todays plus money play o da day is dodgers/reds over 7.5 at +120...i aint getting dis line at all as both these teams are hittin well and neither pitcher is a stud or anythang...its not like its kershaw vs cueto here ya know?...its two very hittable pitchers arroyo and kuroda...i thnk dat both teams score atleast 5 in dis game and the bullpens may give up a ton late also...sheet kemp may put up 8 runs in dis one on his own...the whole dodger lineup has been rakin lately n the reds big bats have been litin it up also...dont care who wins but both teams score at least 5 and this game goes over e-z...play da plus doods!...toasty out...gotta get my stuff together before 4:20.

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 06:00 PM

i just jumped on tb/det yes run in 1st

GTforme · 06-13-11, 06:06 PM

Gotcha'

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 06:06 PM

GT I like that play a lot...I'm on it for a unit thanks

GTforme · 06-13-11, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

i just jumped on tb/det yes run in 1st

Good call my friend!

nappdaddy over on DaBa's thread is on that... and he's doing well!

GTforme · 06-13-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

GT I like that play a lot...I'm on it for a unit thanks

Good... then we're on the same 2 plays w/o consultation

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 06:52 PM

chi/mil yes 2 units

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 07:02 PM

just took vancouver To Win 1 unit......if they lose I chase bet them in game 7....no way Boston beats vancouver there....no way.....

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 07:37 PM

not a good night...wasn't big on that chi/mil play but i did want to get the sd/col yes bet in....i was playing cards and missed it damn....that one will prolly hit...hockey game over already 8 minutes in...figured that one....Vancouver takes it in game 7...I don't care if Boston wins 8-0 today...Van takes the series.

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 07:51 PM

of fuking course...I thought the sd/col game was at 8:40....i went to bet it at 8:34pm....didnt realize game was at 8:35....my 3 chase bet would have made it all up, and instead i miss it, and still have yet to have a winning bet today....and i know longer like the night games 1st inning yes.....

GTforme · 06-13-11, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

just took vancouver To Win 1 unit......if they lose I chase bet them in game 7....no way Boston beats vancouver there....no way.....

Just had a flashback to Miami last night

GTforme · 06-13-11, 08:16 PM

We shoulda' PROP bet the Bruins Ov3 goals 1st. period

We coulda' retired.............

ColdBeerHere · 06-13-11, 11:41 PM

least we hit that last over ...can't wait till i can get back to cappin....maybe i can fit some in here and there.....i should be pickin' some good yes bets tomorrow i am starting on a C bet with them....

I'll have at least a two unit bet on van ml for game 7

GTforme · 06-14-11, 07:38 AM

See ya' tonight CBH!

oChRoNiCo · 06-14-11, 07:43 AM

gl with your plays I will be keeping an eye on this thread best of luck

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 11:58 AM

Alright guys, looks like I got some free time today...Gonna do some capping....I may be tweeking things once again....Instead of playing every game I cap...I am going to be selective in the games I pick....Basically instead of comparing PR to odds.....I am basically going to be picking the team with the better PR....However I have implemented some filters, b/c every game always has a team with the stronger PR.....

This will result in playing some juice...Example : a few nights ago PHI was a -210 FAV at home against CHC..It looks like we would have played this one...But on the other hand I do rank teams that have a higher PR and are the dog ! This is going to work out well....OK onto cappin', bbl.

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 12:05 PM

And just to update before the day starts:

35-27 12.91 u (7 days)

RL Chase: A bet 1-2
B bet 1-0 up 3.00 units
rrl: 0-1

If we are going to be playing selective plays I also may implement a chase system for these plays as well....Hard to go wrong when I am picking at over .500 and I only expect that percentage to go up

PS: in case anyone is wondering my unit size is about 3.5% of my BR....I know I'm a wild and crazy guy

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

And just to update before the day starts:

~~35-27 12.91 u~~ (7 days)

RL Chase: A bet 1-2
B bet 1-0 up 3.00 units
rrl: 0-1

If we are going to be playing selective plays I also may implement a chase system for these plays as well....Hard to go wrong when I am picking at over .500 and I only expect that percentage to go up

PS: in case anyone is wondering my unit size is about 3.5% of my BR....I know I'm a wild and crazy guy

I just went over all my hard copies of my capping...I made a mistake back on 6-7 counting the ARZ Pitt game as a loss when it should have been a win....So the updated record is this:

37-26 13.24 u (7 days)

RL Chase: A bet 1-2
B bet 1-0 up 3.00 units
rrl: 0-1

I know I somehow got one extra game in there

I have no idea where it came from and I am not going back over everything....I am still in the process of doing every smoothly, neatly, and in an orderly efficient fashion...I cut a lot of time of capping today so that helps....

I also went back over every game and did selective picking....

That record over the same span came out to 18-12 and up only 2.65 units !

Guess, that doesn't look like the way to go.....I got all of today's games capped...I am going over things once more to see if I can improve anywhere....If I can't then all games will be played.....

I'm also looking into a possible RL Road play for tonight.

FutureShock · 06-14-11, 03:19 PM

well from the posted record, sounds interesting. why is this the first time i've been seeing this?.. shame on me

Job well done!

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 03:24 PM

hmmm...Another odd thing I found....Heading into today I had capped 62 games total....Out of those 62 games I only picked the home team 15 times.....Not sure if I should be concerned about this or not

.....I do know that the system has the tendency to pick the dogs b/c the value is just not there for the favorites.....

It happened again today as you'll see....11 games capped....10 road teams picked....I guess one thing is a lot of the time the road team is the dog therefore getting + odds......If I can maintain a winning pick % of .500 or over then I should still be in the + for units.....

Looks like there will be "B" bet for the RL Chase tonight....

current leans are: PIT, CIN, CWS, and LAA

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 03:48 PM

Team / PR / Odds / Pick Tuesday 6/14

FLA -34 (+190) @ PHI +81 (-210) pick is FLA +190

NYM +8 (+135) @ ATL +37 (-145) pick is NYM +135

PIT +23 (+112) @ HOU -23 (-122) pick is PIT +112

SF +10 (+105) @ ARZ +127 (-115) pick is ARZ -115

CIN +111 (+118) @ LAD -23 (-128) pick is CIN +111

TEX +62 (+132) @ NYY +29 (-142) pick is TEX +132

CLE -4 (+165) @ DET +39 (-175) pick is CLE +165

BOS +71 (+114) @ TB +2 (-124) pick is BOS +114

CWS +18 (-127) @ MIN -60 (+117) pick is CWS -127

KC -76 (+153) @ OAK -19 (-163) pick is KC +153

LAA +64 (-132) @ SEA -42 (+122) pick is LAA -132

These are just what the system picked for tonight....I have not bet them yet....I am looking into things before I make a decision.

GTforme · 06-14-11, 04:34 PM

... in da' house CBH and just finished reading current!

How are ya' buddy?

I'm feeling great... let's get 'em!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 04:43 PM

Well I couldn't turn any of the leans into picks...I narrowed it down to LAA or CWS, but couldn't make a pick...

No pick tonight for the RL chase.....

I'm now betting all games picked by the system....BOL to anyone that dares to follow

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by GTforme

... in da' house CBH and just finished reading current!

How are ya' buddy?

I'm feeling great... let's get 'em!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey GT, I feel good..cappin' went well, gettin' faster at it...Now I just hope it's successful ! Mostly dogs again tonight...6-5 and we could be up units tonight....Hopefully it hits on all cylinders

I am on my "C" bet tonight for my run in the first inning chase thing I got going on the side....I'm looking to bet YES BAL/TOR, and if that don't hit I'll go YES on SD/COL for my "D" bet....Any thoughts on those picks ?

GTforme · 06-14-11, 04:49 PM

Same guy as yesterday... gimme your thoughts please!

hey doods...nuther winna last nite but it was a little closer than i was thinkin...puts me at 8-0 posted with a +$932 gain cuz they is all dog plays y'all!...overall for my season i at 35-22 and +$2009...goin back to a total today...todays plus money play o da day is rays/sox over 8.5 at +101...been waitin all mornin for this to get to even odds n it popped up to +101 so i'm on it!...sox bats is red hot n shields has been strugglin...i love my boy wakefield but he just aint got it no more n da rays offense has been rollin too...i thouht this total should be closer to 10 cuz of the offenses and strugglin pitchers but i will take plus money on 8.5 every day o da week doods...i think both starters have to throw a tun of pitches and the pens will have to get involved early and this game gets over da total fast...y'all know im gunna miss a play sooner or later right?...hope it aint today thou...toasty out.

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 05:02 PM

GT be back in a bit...I'll give you some thoughts then

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by GTforme

Same guy as yesterday... gimme your thoughts please!

hey doods...nuther winna last nite but it was a little closer than i was thinkin...puts me at 8-0 posted with a +$932 gain cuz they is all dog plays y'all!...overall for my season i at 35-22 and +$2009...goin back to a total today...todays plus money play o da day is rays/sox over 8.5 at +101...been waitin all mornin for this to get to even odds n it popped up to +101 so i'm on it!...sox bats is red hot n shields has been strugglin...i love my boy wakefield but he just aint got it no more n da rays offense has been rollin too...i thouht this total should be closer to 10 cuz of the offenses and strugglin pitchers but i will take plus money on 8.5 every day o da week doods...i think both starters have to throw a tun of pitches and the pens will have to get involved early and this game gets over da total fast...y'all know im gunna miss a play sooner or later right?...hope it aint today thou...toasty out.

Well, I would have to say I concur....About the only negative I see is that TB has trouble scoring at home...But both teams have had good career stats against the other team's starting pitcher....We know how hot Boston is...I think this goes over...I'll wager a unit on it

Also, have to say that after putting in today's bets I am feeling good...I got a good feeling about tonight's picks

Also don't worry about my question about my YES bets...they have to be put on hold until I build up my BR a bit or have a light baseball night....Remember my units are larger so I have to be careful...no biggie...I know where I left off...The bookies might forget about my chase but I wont

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 05:47 PM

I was thinking it's ok to go .500 on a night with the sytem picks or even a game or two under on a full slate like the last few days....It's all part of it...Not going to fire on all cylinders every night....What we need are the occasional night's that go like 8-2 like early on with the system....Let's hope we see one of those night's tonight....I think we're do.....Let's get them road dogs barking !

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 05:49 PM

I see soccer locker has an interesting play on US soccer

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 05:57 PM

Last minute edition...RL CHASE take boston on the rrl

I got it +175 dimes...also got it at +190 at DSI

This is a B bet

After looking at career stats....How low TB scores at home...BOS #1 in the league in road runs...Also Boston has a more rested BP than TB

GTforme · 06-14-11, 06:48 PM

With ya' buddy!

ColdBeerHere · 06-14-11, 07:00 PM

Wow, already 13 LOB through 3 innings in the BOS/TB game - 9 of those LOB by Boston...C'mon Boston !

ColdBeerHere · 06-15-11, 01:09 AM

5-5 tonight up +1.06 units

Missed on the RL chase : Since we have are now even units on the rl chase we may go back to the one unit ("A" bet) and start at square 1

Season Totals:

42-31 14.30 u (8 days)

RL Chase: A bet 1-2
B bet 1-1 up 0.00 units

Unit size is 3.5% of BR

ColdBeerHere · 06-15-11, 01:43 AM

GT maybe you shouldn't ask me about over/unders

I don't really cap scores though I do see offensive statistics, not sure if it equates properly....Sometimes I may feel good as I thought I did tonight....If I bet over/under I usually tail someone who does well

Zero runs for the bean boys....unreal...Their LOB was probably ridonk....oh well...

cala56 · 06-15-11, 07:28 AM

good luck i like it.