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Guys, do not forget about the rpi filter... mostly likely houst vs philly will not be a play.. among a few others..We got 4 JM plays after today. I'll list below.
04/25 MIL vs CIN
05/06 TAM @ BAL
08/22 BOS @ TEX
09/12 HOU vs PHI
All plays are contingent on rpi and discard all plays after 09/01/2011 according to JM filters. Now keep in mind he will take credit for all
wins even if they don't fit rpi so it's your choice if you want to play them. Most of them win anyway he just doesn't or will not accept losses.
Wallco, you just focus on what you got going. I will track all JM plays and post as season progresses. Your time is too valuable. I will make all posts with and without filters so everyone has the info. I bought a huge wall calender today and will fill it with all the system bets. Let's make some money this season !Comment -
Hagball, this BAL NYY TEX game, are them from Any system, or just your own picks?Comment -
NYY -200 means you bet $200 to win $100. It is equal to 1.5
BSR +100 means you bet $100 to win $100. it is equal to 2.0
so, in theory and on sportsbook without juice, if Player 1 bet $200 on Team 1 with -200 and Player 2 bet $100 on team 2 with +100, the result is:
Team 1 wins: Player 1 = $200+$100 = $300, Player 2 = $0, sportsbook = $300 - $300 = $0
Team 2 wins: Player 1 = $0, Player 2 = $200, sportsbook = $300 - $200 = $100
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now, let's look at second example - -200 vs +200:
BSR +200 means you bet $100 to win $200. It is equal to 3.0
and in same setup:
Team 1 wins: Player 1 = $200+$100 = $300, Player 2 = $0, sportsbook = $300 - $300 = $0
Team 2 wins: Player 1 = $0, Player 2 = $300, sportsbook = $300 - $300 = $0
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so, ideal line is -200 : +200
everything closer than this (-190 : +190) is juice, everything wider (-200 : +210) is fake.Comment -
or http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/year/2010 -
The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.Comment -
3. On the first day of the rematch between the two teams, as long as the team that was swept previously has an RPI value of no less than .015 than the opposing team, AND the opposing team is not a top-2 RPI team, make a bet for the team that was swept. (Note: The RPI will be explained in greater details in a later section of this manual)Comment -
gotta love these chase systems, funnest part of gambling i thinkComment -
They are my own picks. This is the last time I will post them here. I'm moving them to chilidog's thread so I won't confuse people with Morrison's picks and Wallco's system when he comes out with it. I also post some other stuff over there. By the way I went 3-0 last night and am now 6-1 this season.Comment -
Yeah, but you don't know that that will be the case when the series comes up. What I will do is post all potential plays as soon as they come up. As soon as a sweep is completed I will post by the next day when that play will come up and then when it does come up I will post it again and mention whether or not it is an official play and include all Morrison filters. I can even post the link from JM. If it's not an official play it will be your choice whether or not you want to play it. I know we get a lot of repeated questions in this thread so I will try to be clear and accurate as possible. The early post will give all of you time to track the plays on your own spreadsheets or calenders.Comment -
Any system plays???Comment -
You were one of the originators here, you don't have to move. Just at the top of your post, in bold letters, say, "My Personal Picks", or something of that nature. By the time we are done, there will probably be several systems on here, we are ALL going to have to label the systems in our posts to where the system name, or personal picks, is obvious to everyone. If we properly organize this, there will be no confusion, unless of course, you are Danish.
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It will probably qualify for V3.
Also, if it qualifies for V3, the best method is to bet on Phi at the A bet and if it wins, do not then play the V3 (you have a win from the series). If Phi loses the A bet you then start the V3, betting on Phi as a B Bet, using the 1st game loss as an A Bet in a 3 game chase. Worked a treat last year. 100% I think. simples, tch
KevComment -
MY SERIES PLAYS. Today I'm starting my chase bets with BOS and CIN. I will play the series to win 1 game. When that win happens the series is over and I move on. Nothing real difficult about this. I use several criteria to make my selection but I'm not going to get into how I determine my plays. You can tail, fade or just ignore them. I did this the last 2 mlb seasons and did real well with it. I didn't feel the Morrison system offered enough opportunities and at times the juice was so high that the bets were downright dangerous to the bankroll. GL allComment -
GL hagball52!
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Thanks. By the way I'm 6-1 this season with a [C] bet loss already. They do happen but there are enough plays to overcome the losses.Comment -
No it was Milwaukee. I listened to all the hype about how good the Brew crew was supposed to be this year but their bullpen sucks. I actually like the Orioles this year. They will present a lot of value this season because of their horrid past. If they stay healthy they could actually push the Yanks for the wild card spot.Comment -
Yeah I need to go back and look to see what I actually lost on the series. And yeah unless I state that I played it on the runline and it wins that way. If it's a sweep by the other team then it becomes a Morrison system bet. All my bets will be moneyline unless specified.Comment -
I guess I should post my unit totals if I'm going to post my plays. My plays right now are always to win one unit. On the series that I lost I tried to go back and figure my losses. It may not be exzact but it's close. Betting to win one unit Milwaukee lost game 1 at even money and game 2 went off at even money so I bet 2 units. Game 2 lost so now I'm down 3 units. I bet game on the runline @ -175 so I had to wager almost 7 units to recover my losses and make a 1 unit profit. Game 3 loses so I'm down almost 10 units. Subtract the 6 that I won on the other series I played I'm down 4 units for the season. I'm not going to explain it like this from here on out but I will keep tabs just so everyone knows. I bet a lot of other games also so my bankroll is always in flux. I will just stick to the data on my posted plays.Comment -
I agree. Hagball continue to post your plays here. If we can get this setup like the NBA thread I think we can all benefit from having the option of a few systems to follow.
You were one of the originators here, you don't have to move. Just at the top of your post, in bold letters, say, "My Personal Picks", or something of that nature. By the time we are done, there will probably be several systems on here, we are ALL going to have to label the systems in our posts to where the system name, or personal picks, is obvious to everyone. If we properly organize this, there will be no confusion, unless of course, you are Danish.Comment -
Thank you for the attempt at an explanation, but I really do understand how odds work. What I'm looking for clarification on is the "dimeline" and how books refer to odds of up to -199 (for example) being available on the dimeline... then what what happens to the underdog once the favorite odds go to -200?Comment -
Me too, this will be the first season of betting MLB, and it is slightly harder to grasp then NBA. Haven`t really followed baseball before but very excited to learn. And yes, the NBA thread is very active and I hope to see a lot of familiar nicks here as well !!Comment -
Very interested in hearing what You guys plan on following this MLB season. Please share
I will be doing JM, whatever wonderful Wallco cooks up and Crusher.
But always looking for great new handicappers and systems, and I sure this is what we all do !!
So, any recommendations are very much appreciated.Comment -
The honest truth is I don't even know who G is and I did my own research. If it duplicates with someone else all I can say is oh well. If it wins that is all that matters. I will probably have a lot of plays that other cappers do. I usually don't check the service plays until after I make my selections because I've been swayed by people I consider smarter than me and a lot of times I end up leaving money on the table.
P.S. Wait till you see what I got lined up for later in the week.Comment -
Usually they will jump to a 20 cent or 25 cent line after that. So dime line, the way you explained it would be as follows:
-199 favorite ; +189 dog
-200 favorite ; +180 dog
The higher up you go, the more seperation you have. For example:
-280 favorite ; +225 dog
Dimelines are only effective at lower odds, most books stop in the -150's, but some go to-199. Those books make up for it on higher line games. This is what makes backtesting dogs so difficult. It is not just a matter of adding 10 or 20, because the higher they go, the more seperation. And some lines even overlap, like my example above. If you were backtesting a dog at +180 and playing a dimeline, you would assume the line was -190. But it also could be -200, because at that point it jumps to a 20 cent line. I have no idea what that guy was trying to explain earlier, but he doesn't understand odds.Comment
