John Morrison 2011 MLB

[cali]

I may be a little wrong, but I think that what labby players ideally need is a winning percentage of at least fiftyish, with odds averaging not much higher than around -125.

Right now I'm looking at certain propositions which may be capable of accomplishing this. For example, the White Sox to win a game before their opponent on any homestand or road trip. I go a,b,c, no runlines, and stop after either a win or c-bet loss. The White Sox went 12-6 home and 11-7 road in 2010, but with better odds on the road, of course. It's all just a matter of selecting the right team and deciding whether to play them home, road, or both.

Here are some stats with other teams, although they're incomplete: pit 12-4 road reverse, 11-5 home regular in 2010, 11-6 home in 2009, 9-11 home in 2008, 10-9 home in 2007, 11-7 home in 2006, swept at end. 12-7 road reverse in 2006.

ny yankees 2010: 11-5 home, crazy odds on a few. 11-10 road, like home odds for a fair team

bos 2010: 11-14 home, bad odds alot, 11-9 road. They had injuries last year though. 11-8 home in 2009, swept by tor at end of season. 11-1 road.

The twins were 12-5 at home with mostly decent odds in 2010, and the KC road reverse was also like 12-5. Road reverse odds are often very high, however.

It seems like anyone who understands many of the teams can make fair money playing like this, especially with a labby, yet if the wrong team is ridden, things could go the opposite way. Please be careful, anybody who might consider playing with this strategy.



Take a look here: JM MLB sys, along with b and c only, in 2010 (by division)


bal 9-10, 2-7

bos 4-0, 2-0

tb 2-0. 0-0

nyy no plays in 2010

tor 4-2, 1-1


division total: 19-12, 5-8




chw 1-0

cle 4-0

kc 2-5, 2-2

min 1-0

det 3-2, 1-1


Division total: 11-7 system, 3-3 with b and c only





laa 2-11, 1-7

oak 2-4, 1-3

sea 4-9, 2-3

tex 3-1, 1-0


Division total: 11-25, 5-13



American League totals: 41-44, 13-24





fla 3-0

atl 3-3, 2-1

nym 2-1, 1-0

was 1-0

phi 2-0


Division total: 11-4, 3-1




pit 6-12, 6-4

cin 2-1, 1-0

hou 4-6, 2-2

mil 4-8, 3-2

stl 4-3, 1-1

chc 2-2, 1-1

Division total: 22-32, 14-10





az 6-10, 1-5

col no plays in 2010

lad 4-4, 2-2

sf 3-4, 1-2

sd 1-1, 1-0


division total 14-19, 5-9

National league total: 47-55 in sys gms, 22-20 b and c only



Grand total: 88-99 system games, 35-44 b and c only. I didn't use Rpi filters or runlines in my testing. The runlines make for some extra wins, but I didn't feel they were worth the greatly increased odds. I also forgot to stop on September 1. These results reflect the whole season. I can't be sure of how many wins and losses would have been eliminated by stopping early, but I get the impression it wouldn't have made a genuinely significant difference in the actual W/L percentage. Hopefully I'm not wrong there.

As far as playing JM baseball the traditional way, it's not my personal preference, but I respect everyone's right to play how they wish. Everyone here wants to win, that's what matters.

[TRE1968]

always always use a labby, yeah, if they get inflated just divide and extend and You will eventually clear them
for instance You`d get 75-75-75-75-150 just break it down to for instance 450/10 and You get
45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45
just a thought
coming from a Forex trading background I make sure to always bet between 2% - 6% of my capital one night. conservative,
but keeps emotions in check !!

use a labby, thats a good move

lets make some monnneeeyyy !!!!

thats exactly right..stay in the game..might take a little longer to clear the line, but you stay in the game

[lawalahmed]

5 days to go.....

[Glada Tartan]

5 days? Can feel it in my body

[DustyDiamond]

The only think I can really think of is that when I am betting on a dog, I will still bet my usual amount. In other words, I don't "wager down" my amount to win. I bet to risk with this system.

That is the only thing I can think of. Each season there have been some nice dog wins at great odds which have really pumped up the profits. I recall in 2007 we had a 6th game bet and the dog was +225 and cashed. This will occur during the year and I feel it is important to make the most out of these times by betting to risk and not win.

Another element might be when I stop the system. I usually stop at the end of August... I will creep into September if I have a line that still requires clearing up. If there are no shutouts on Aug 31st the system is basically wrapped up. I have not looked into weather I am benefiting from this or leaving profits on the table.

Another thing to keep in mind is that in each and every season I have done this (this will be my 6th season) there have been times during the season where I have been down 50-70 units... this really does require April to the end of August to show its true results. Be prepared to be down during this amount during the year on this system if you so choose to try it.

However, like I said from the get go in the System Integrity forum... this actually started out with myself and some friends trying to prove to another friend why Chase Systems do not work... it has fortunately turned into a bit of an "ugly step sister" to this point.

Who knows what the trend holds for 2011.

Anyhow, I feel that this has unintentionally hi-jacked the great JM thread. If you guys like maybe we can begin a shut out thread to discuss further or perhaps even have a season long thread tallying our results for fun.

I hope you stick around in this thread, I was going to post the plays to the system, but if your going to be here, you should do it, I don't want to take credit away from the system creator. I'll still post the FAV system for tracking, and if people feel like jumping on board they are welcome.

[dukipl]

C'mon mlb make me happy this year

[lawalahmed]

4 days to go....

[COYLO]

were gonna make so much money this season i cant wait

[DustyDiamond]

Is it Thursday yet?

[ghislaine]

You are sooo right COYLO !!!

[Wallco99]

I'm here!

[soldier1047]

Yay!!! Am excited!

[ross607]

I'm here!

Wallco in the house!!

Got my labby lines ready and waiting... prepared to stay disiplined throughout baseball season

Lets do it guys!!!

[Long Term]

Everyone pumped up to make some serious hay?!?!?!?!!!!

Good Luck Fellas!!!

[ken23lau]

what are we playing for Thursday?

[Sportsnut1968]

Should be fun to watch this system work....Anyone play labby at 100-200 per bet???

[NavSchl]

this is also my 3rd season with JM baseball. V1 was a goldmine in 2009. 2010 was a disaster for chase betting. The labby line must be used this season to avoid losing everything we've been earning from the NBA and NHL seasons. V2 is a joke and a waste of money. V3 makes sense but should be wagered on at a fraction of what you would like to earn for each V1 bet.

I believe this season will be profitable if we can mimic the JM nba thread. Wallco and JW cash have come up with money printing strategies with NBA and NHL respectively. I look forward to anyone posting new strategies for MLB.

SBP and Crusher will have bets available daily but they will crush the bankroll by chasing. Stevex and I had mentioned late last season to stay away from crusher's A and B bets and only bet on C's and D's (4 game chase).

Bottom Line: There's a ton of games in MLB and JM v1 only covers a tiny portion of it. We'll maximize by anything available by posting the plays here and evaluating it as a group.

Nothing but positive wishes for this thread and everyone involved.

I have subscribed to one of JM's NBA systems .. funny how he pitched that all I had to do was spend 5-minutes to make money. But over time I have noticed we all spend a lot more than that trying to make his system work, which he is paid to do.

What was Crusher's A bet win? What if you run a labby and bet A, skip B if it goes to that then pick up at C or D? I thought that was the purpose of the labby was to recover the losses and produce a profit? It would seem that the % of bank bet is to high if a chase crushes the bankroll. Another aspect I think I have seen is a lot of people betting so many systems and jumping in and out of them ... doesn't it make more sense to pick one or two and go through with those? I see people yelling fade this or that when the usual losses roll in then shut up during wins.

[knugen]

can someone help me, i follow thw games on mlb.com, but dont know how to read it really, there is an H and E what does it means
and above the outs shows there is two other numbers 0-0, what does they means??

[Wallco99]

can someone help me, i follow thw games on mlb.com, but dont know how to read it really, there is an H and E what does it means
and above the outs shows there is two other numbers 0-0, what does they means??

Hits, errors.
Balls and strikes. And if you see an "F", that means final.

[knugen]

Hits, errors.
Balls and strikes. And if you see an "F", that means final.

Thx, i think i can guess what hits are , but whats error, and what does balls and strikes means.. Much more funny to follow à sport if u understand the rules...?!

[DustyDiamond]

Wallco what kind of systems do you have brewing

[Ditaln1]

I've been gone from the 'sports scene' for a bit, but can someone tell me what labby means? I keep seeing everyone say it, but I'm a bit confused.. Pardon my ignorance. Thanks!

Good info in this thread by the way, good reading.. Thanks all for the effort you are all putting into systems and such.

[rybread9]

I've been gone from the 'sports scene' for a bit, but can someone tell me what labby means? I keep seeing everyone say it, but I'm a bit confused.. Pardon my ignorance. Thanks!

Good info in this thread by the way, good reading.. Thanks all for the effort you are all putting into systems and such.

Google "Labouchere System"

[lawalahmed]

Here is the day......

[hagball52]

Morning all, until Wallco gets his system going I'm going to start the mlb season just like I finished last season. I reviewed each series as it started and would do a chase bet for that certain team to win at least one game in a 3 or 4 game series. I avoided all 2 game sets. I would look at the better team and with at least 2 of their best pitchers going in that series I would play the series out. I avoided the real heavy favorites because of the juice but once in awhile I would play them on the runline. It was all a personal choice but baseball has been my most profitable season for the past 2 years.
Wallco I presume you're working on something similar to what you did in the NBA. Looking forward to it. Baseball offers a lot of options that you don't get in the other sports. Totals present a lot of value and first 5 innings are also an option. As the season progresses I will delve into them but for right now I'm going to just do what's worked for me.
Yesterday I played LAA and MIL. I split so on Sat. I will play MIL again. This year I am armed with the labby something I knew nothing about last season. I expect it to pay big dividends this season. Today I'm playing COL and FLA and am tracking a few other series waiting to see how their first game plays out. GL all

[Wallco99]

Thx, i think i can guess what hits are , but whats error, and what does balls and strikes means.. Much more funny to follow à sport if u understand the rules...?!

That is too long of an explanation, either watch a game or google baseball rules. In fact, you're probably better off watching a game. The announcers usually starve for things to talk about, so by game's end, they most likely will have answered all your questions. Just to let you know, in my opinion, it is the greatest sport. But that's easy for me to say, I live 10 miles from Philadelphia, and we've got the Phils.

[Wallco99]

Morning all, until Wallco gets his system going I'm going to start the mlb season just like I finished last season. I reviewed each series as it started and would do a chase bet for that certain team to win at least one game in a 3 or 4 game series. I avoided all 2 game sets. I would look at the better team and with at least 2 of their best pitchers going in that series I would play the series out. I avoided the real heavy favorites because of the juice but once in awhile I would play them on the runline. It was all a personal choice but baseball has been my most profitable season for the past 2 years.
Wallco I presume you're working on something similar to what you did in the NBA. Looking forward to it. Baseball offers a lot of options that you don't get in the other sports. Totals present a lot of value and first 5 innings are also an option. As the season progresses I will delve into them but for right now I'm going to just do what's worked for me.
Yesterday I played LAA and MIL. I split so on Sat. I will play MIL again. This year I am armed with the labby something I knew nothing about last season. I expect it to pay big dividends this season. Today I'm playing COL and FLA and am tracking a few other series waiting to see how their first game plays out. GL all

Not even remotely close to Chase 110. That was my very first backtest, and results were a bust on four different system attempts. I accidentally stumbled on to this while backtesting that. I am trying to capitalize on underdogs in key series throughout the year. So far so good. In three years of backtest, it has brought (+59, +11, & +32 units). Put it this way, the one season was 83-7 in a four game chase, and sill produced +59 units. Let me see JM make that claim. This was being very conservative and using a 20 cent line, and only giving +100 on wins that were within 5-10 of even money, probably actually lower than they were getting. If you play the dime line, which I will be, the profits will be much higher. I am not out to minimize losses and make them dissapear, throwing away thousands of dollars on bets I didn't make just to show 0 and 1 losses for the season. Rather, I am maximizing my profits, and if losses happen, they happen. I am spending a lot of time on this, as you've noticed, but I need it to be thorough and perfect, no questions, and proven results. I know people keep saying "what are you doing, where are the systems". They don't just fall out of the sky, they have to be tested over and over and over, otherwise we are just blindly placing bets on a whim. I really think this system is going to be good, and as I mentioned in the other forum, I was with a guy last week who is interested in purchasing the rights from me for this, who knows, maybe it is that good. The system never has any plays during the first week, and many cases, the last week. So I still have time before the first plays are here. Unlike JM and these other guys, who just put out systems based on theories, and entire system schedule can be printed at beginning of season, my systems don't work that way. My systems work on certain key series in season, plays based on team performance, e.g. Chase 110, (not playing a team just because they go away for a few days), and plays based on best possible returns on our money. I do not like the high juice and high favorite lines. Even in JM NBA, I play it at -110, and have been well rewarded for that. I just ask for all to be patient and let me finish creating this gem. I will backtest 12 years, and more if there's time. To this point I have finished four seasons, three of which the results are posted above, and the fourth which I haven't tallied up yet. But looking at the paper, I can already tell it was a great year. So it looks like I am 4/4. Be back soon.

[on3]

Good stuff

[cmdyrds]

just checking in

[KurtNor]

Used the system for a couple years and it is good. Took 2 losses last year I think.

[hagball52]

Thanks for the update Wallco. Threw you a couple points. Wished I could give you a lot more but I hear it costs money to become an sbr pro and that's the only way to give more than 2 pts a day. Anyway if there's anything I can do to help just let me know.

[doin]

hagball, could you share what your excell or spread sheet looks like as you keep track of each chase / gambling endeavor? thank you!

[Wallco99]

Thanks for the update Wallco. Threw you a couple points. Wished I could give you a lot more but I hear it costs money to become an sbr pro and that's the only way to give more than 2 pts a day. Anyway if there's anything I can do to help just let me know.

Just finished testing year # 4 (2007)

Total profit +62 units, Season record 84-6. (more if you play the dime line).

If you bet the right games, you don't need to bet 200 series to make decent money.

Four season total = +163.7 units.

There is another trend I see as I am doing my test, I will test that afterward to see if it can be incorporated into this system. If it can, our profits will be huge.

[Mrscofield25]

Just finished testing year # 4 (2007) Total profit +62 units, Season record 84-6. (more if you play the dime line). If you bet the right games, you don't need to bet 200 series to make decent money. Four season total = +163.7 units. There is another trend I see as I am doing my test, I will test that afterward to see if it can be incorporated into this system. If it can, our profits will be huge.

Just looking forward to hear about the results of your testings. I really like the "our profits will be huge". Your Chase system in the NBA thread has been really profitable for me, the same has JM NHL system. I hope the MLB season can make a good profit to. I put my trust on you with your Chase system. If I win, then I win. If I loose, then I loose. Just playing the game and if you can't handle a loss, then do not play. That's just the way it is. Appreciate the time you're putting in to this.

[Wallco99]

Does anyone know a site besides covers.com who has archive M/L for MLB before 2007? Scoresand odds.com seems to stop at that point, and I can't find a replacement. I want to use two sites for these tests to gaurantee accuracy.