I have those systems but I can't see the risk involved really paying off that big. I use the DIY system. It bets home dogs with +150 and any win in a 3 game series will profit but you only lose a little over three units if you get swept. Wins a lot, and don't cost a fortune when you don't. Any team between .400 and .500 will be like an ATM.
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Thanks, how does this system work? Does crusher give the system info or is it a just follow these picks type a thing.Originally posted by J.M. DiscipleComment -
tell us more about this.Originally posted by dantannerComment -
dont read into this... just my opinion... but I am not a fan of crusher.. he does not use a system, and just picks games and hopes to hit 25%, or one out of four... his A bet has the same chance of winning as his C bet does.. last year he did do well, so i cant say much... but scary to put that kind of money on the line that a four game chase calls for, on a guy with no historical evidence or basis behind his picks..Comment -
I have never heard of this either, but I am definately interested... I did a quick google search on it and this is what I found..Originally posted by mattd83
Anyone used them before?Comment -
A guy was telling me about it in a chat room the other day. Here is how I understand it.
You bet home dogs at +150 to not get swept. You progress your bets by 10% each game. First game bets 1, second game 1.1, and third game 1.2. At something like +170 you will profit even if the third game wins. A loss is 3.3 units.
I did some checking. In 2010, Seattle had the worst home record. If you bet on Seattle to win one game out of three on every home series would have won 18 series bets and lost 6. 9 first game wins, 4 second game wins, and 5 third game wins. (http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule...attle-mariners ). Check me, I hate looking at that kind of stuff.
Looks like it can't lose. There was some other stuff he was talking about, but that is what stuck out to me. Maybe one day I'll fork out the cash to see the rest of it.Comment -
Nice idea, if we have somebody to test run this....Originally posted by dantannerComment -
Yes, but who were the two losses is 2010, and how much did they lose? In baseball chase, a three game loss at high odds can get very costly, and two could wipe out the entire season's profits. Do you know who the two losses were?Originally posted by soldier1047Comment -
I already backtested something similar. It is not uncommon, actually very frequent, that a team who is +150 or higher in game 1, is a lot less of a dogs Games 2 & 3, and in many cases a favorite in at least one of those. When a line comes out for game one at +170, for example, you have no idea what the lines will be for the next two games. There has to be more to it than you stated. I ran a backtest of three game chase on dog teams, who started their three game series @ +130 or higher, results weren't good. I saved all data in an excel spreadsheet. I can go back and delete all entries between +130-+149 to see what the difference would be. But before I do, let me see if I have this correct.Originally posted by lawalahmed
When a team is a dog of +150 or more in game #1 of a home series, bet on them for all three games of that series.Comment -
Angels lost to the Orioles twice. On the last series which happened around Aug 27th JM started the series on the [B] bet and finished with a different team (Seattle) on the [C] bet and called it a win. I emailed him asking wtf! and he never wrote back. Now he claims he only had one loss all last season.Originally posted by soldier1047Comment -
I understand it to be Home dogs +150 or better with a record of less than .500 overall against teams that are over .500. When I looked at Seattle, I just looked at all of the series they played at home, without looking at the odds of each game or the records of the teams.Originally posted by Wallco99
I will be digging a little deeper into it and would be glad to hear your thoughts about it and what you come up with.
If a team goes from dog to fav, I will not bet them. I wonder if that is going to happen a lot? Still, it seems that you can hit over 50% on well priced dogs just by betting the first game of the series.
Maybe we should start a new thread and see if we can come up with something based on what we know already.Comment -
May be bet on home underdog ( +150 and above) on the first game of the series then dont bet against best 3 teams in the league according to R.P.I and also no chase......Comment -
I screwed up. LAA lost a betting series to BOS and lost one to the Orioles. I went back and checked.Originally posted by hagball52Comment -
That's a very complex backtest, You need to know the teams record each time they are a dog. It's do-able, just very time consuming. I'll let someone else handle that one. I am doing several already. If it was a quickie, I would have snuck it in. Thanks.Originally posted by dantannerComment -
As far as the dog going to a favorite, it is very common for them to go to a -110, -120, -105 the next game, and if not, much lower plus odds. I have a lot of the odds logged, I have been doing several tests for dog systems, so close on many, but I don't want to throw a system out here that is flooded with filters. I am still working several angles.Originally posted by Wallco99Comment -
TPS doesn't have a list so I research it myself. The two teams are LA Angels (lost to Baltimore-line range from -160 to -200 over 3 games August 27th to August 29th) and Boston (lost to Tampa Bay-line range from -120 to -150 over 4 games April 16th to April 19th).Originally posted by Wallco99Comment -
Originally posted by Wallco99
I think I will do a little more checking to see what I can find. I will start a new thread if I have something more detailed to offer, or more easily verifiable.Comment -
So no one has the *actual* history of JM bets for the last three years?Comment -
the three yr history i was sent earlier in the thread showed only one loss the past three yrs...do you want that?Comment -
One loss only? Must be mistake. Last year had 4 losses.Originally posted by dlunc3Comment -
yea i know... these must have been "JM results"Comment -
That's what I mean. I'm looking for someone who either played the system and has records or has backtested it according to his system. I don't want to hear about his own results because he usually misses several losses as he tells his story. The guy is full of shit.Comment -
In the other thread, big limpin mentioned that he made 167 units last year using this system... how could this be possible if there were 6 losses? Seems like 6 losses of a 6 game chase would put this system pretty far in the negative correcT?Originally posted by DustyDiamondComment -
wow, that's an incredible record!Comment -
That's my take on it. He has to be betting it a different way.Originally posted by dlunc3Comment -
Wallco, are you going to have a 4 game chase on teams that lost 3 games, like Basketball?
I noticed last year, starting from the 2nd loss, teams did well.Comment -
Originally posted by dlunc3
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The only think I can really think of is that when I am betting on a dog, I will still bet my usual amount. In other words, I don't "wager down" my amount to win. I bet to risk with this system.Originally posted by Wallco99
That is the only thing I can think of. Each season there have been some nice dog wins at great odds which have really pumped up the profits. I recall in 2007 we had a 6th game bet and the dog was +225 and cashed. This will occur during the year and I feel it is important to make the most out of these times by betting to risk and not win.
Another element might be when I stop the system. I usually stop at the end of August... I will creep into September if I have a line that still requires clearing up. If there are no shutouts on Aug 31st the system is basically wrapped up. I have not looked into weather I am benefiting from this or leaving profits on the table.
Another thing to keep in mind is that in each and every season I have done this (this will be my 6th season) there have been times during the season where I have been down 50-70 units... this really does require April to the end of August to show its true results. Be prepared to be down during this amount during the year on this system if you so choose to try it.
However, like I said from the get go in the System Integrity forum... this actually started out with myself and some friends trying to prove to another friend why Chase Systems do not work... it has fortunately turned into a bit of an "ugly step sister" to this point.
Who knows what the trend holds for 2011.
Anyhow, I feel that this has unintentionally hi-jacked the great JM thread. If you guys like maybe we can begin a shut out thread to discuss further or perhaps even have a season long thread tallying our results for fun.Comment -
One forum for all of us to gather is good. A lot of good stuff happens when all contribute. I know at times it gets a little clogged but in the long run it's worth it.Comment -
Lets go 2011!
Cash in!
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How those systems coming along wallco? few more days till showtime!Comment -
I want to try a labby with the JM MLB plays, like what I did with the NBA this year, but my limited backtesting suggests that JM baseball is much more treacherous due to the widely varying moneylines and high juice.
In my tests, the labourchere lines seemed to be getting too monstrous and inflated. Has anyone here actually ever played this system with a labby strategy? If so, how did it go?Comment -
it does ok just keep your lines in control..extend them if you have tooOriginally posted by caliComment -
always always use a labby, yeah, if they get inflated just divide and extend and You will eventually clear them
for instance You`d get 75-75-75-75-150 just break it down to for instance 450/10 and You get
45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45-45
just a thought
coming from a Forex trading background I make sure to always bet between 2% - 6% of my capital one night. conservative,
but keeps emotions in check !!
use a labby, thats a good move
lets make some monnneeeyyy !!!!Comment -
Mlb is here any promising sys?Comment
