BeatingBaseball - 2nd Half Thread

[BeatingBaseball]

8-23-10 Monday Plays

Focusing on 3 games tonight - 1 chalk and 2 dogs.

Looking to at least split the 5 and 9 on the dogs for a free shot on each huge AltRL.

Plays...

STL – ML, RL ½
HOU – FF. ML, AltRL ½
KC – FF, ML, AltRL ½




STL
There are times when hitting the road is a good thing.
After this last Cards’ home stand, this feels like one of those times.
Cards finished on the upbeat Sat and Sunday and the bullpen is rested if Lohse stalls.
Lohse was rusty but had no pain in his 1st start back – knows how to pitch the Duncan way.
Cards pushing hard to get Lohse or Westbrook going to fill the 4th spot for the stretch.
Plus 1st game of a road trip always a priority game for Cards – see opportunity w/ Reds in SF.
Cards are 5-1 vs PITT on the year – total running score 36-9

HOU
The most interesting game of the night.
Phils should be FAV - but not by this much here. Line opened at -1.45 and is up to -1.72
Much being made of Phillies’ lineup being back intact for the first time in 3 months.
Not as much being made of Myers’ grudge vs Phils and his knowledge of those hitters.
Charlie Manuel amped it up a little more yesterday w/ comments on Myers, Happ.
Blanton has been very good of late, Myers has been better.
Phils have been hot for sure – but it’s fully priced in here.
Houston is coming off a big win yesterday in FLA to break a 6 gm road L streak
Hunter Pence en fuego and has hit Blanton well in the past.
Not saying HOU will win tonight - but with Brett Myers out there it’s a value at the price.
+1.62 = .382 break even.

KC
Bonderman lost last 3 starts with a 9+ ERA – 3 bombs by Yanks in 5 inn in his last.
KC has won 4/L6 vs Tigers and Royals put at least 7 on the board in each win.
KC won 5/L7 games overall – played a lot of innings Sat & Sun – but coming off a nice win
Detr swept CLEV and also won yesterday, but Bonderrman is not Verlander.
Chen W last start and also W his last outing vs Detroit. Hopefully he pitches around Cabrera.
Line opened -1.50 now up to -1.65 expecting KC to be tired and bullpen 12+ inn L3 games.
KC +1.55 = only .40 break % here. Don’t think Tigers are a .600 club right now.

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Results

STL and HOU games both came in profitable - but we didn’t pick up a bet on KC.

STL covers both plays for +3.4 Units
HOU/Brett Myers pulls off the ML upset and game nets small profit of +.26 Unit.
KC fails to deliver on any plays - a loss of -5.0 U.

Net night a minor setback of -1.34 Units.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-24-10 Tuesday Plays

WASH – FF ½, ML, RL ½
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½

WASH
The perfect career managerial record of Mike Quade rests with the steady, reliable Carlos Zambrano tonight.
(Quade should really consider retiring 1-0.)
Zambrano’s last outing a Cubs’ loss to SD (1 run allowed in 5 inn - but 6 walks).
Lannan beat ATL in last start – now on 3 straight Ws going for 4.
Riggleman held team meeting after Nats sleepwalk last night - should show some life here.
Nats are 3 games over .500 at home on the year.
If Marlon Byrd sits tonight it leaves a big hole in Cubs lineup.

WSOX
Home Sweet Home never looked so good to WSOX.
Dismal road trip behind them - day off at home yesterday.
WSOX know the heat is on here as Yanks in next.
Guthrie coming off his worst outing of 2nd half – a loss to mighty SEA
Gavin Floyd off 2 bad ones vs Twins – but O’s are not Twins. Floyd’s last W vs O’s.
The main, main thing: WSOX 19-6 L25 at home. O’s 17-43 on road overall.

[GTeater]

On it!

[BeatingBaseball]

GTeater

Thanks for the points you've sent over here, G.

You are a gentleman and a scholar.

BB

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

In a bit of a sideways rut here - coming up 1 play and 1 run short of profitability last couple of nights.

Our WASH plays lose Tuesday. WSOX win both ML and RL but push FF.

When you fade Zambrano, the last thing you want is for the Cubs to get a couple of runs early and give him some breathing room. When he's relaxed and ahead, he can be as good as anyone. When anything goes at all wrong, however, (and I mean anything) - it's a different story. He just can't pitch through adversity of any kind. Last night Soriano hits the early 3 run jack to put Cubs up 3-0 and Z/Cubs hold up 5-4 -although they made a very good run at blowing it in the 8th and 9th.

We drop 1.78 Units on the night. And we keep our patience.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-25-10 Wednesday - Early Plays

KC – FF for ½, ML for ½, AltRL ½
ATL – ML, RL ½
LAA (Haren) – FF only

[No coincidences]

Hate to see you on KC.

I like Detroit a lot.

[BeatingBaseball]

Understand Completely

Hate to see you on KC.

I like Detroit a lot.

I know what you mean, No. Believe me, I've seen what's been happening in this series and that the Tigers are on 5 in a row - not to mention the lift from the Damon thing.

It's a hard thing to do, but for me it's simply a move on the price. I'm getting +1.75 FF, +1.77 ML, +2.80 on the AltRL. The break even on +1.77 is only a shade over 36% and on +2.80 a shade over 26%. It won't hit often but when it does...

I agree they are plays I am probably going to lose on any given day, but for 1/2 of a standard play I think there's some value here since I will be taking this proposition more than once this year.

As you well know, the day to day grind is less about picking winners than beating the price for the year. As bad as KC has been running this week and as hot as the Tigers are - KC is is still a big league club that averages 9.4 hits a game (3rd in AL). Galarraga has that virtual perfecto under his belt - but he also has had some struggles and spent some time back in the bushes.

Hey - even the Cubs win a game once in a while.

Good Luck as always.

[BeatingBaseball]

More Sports Cappin' 101 Stuff...

Heard again by PM from the poker player who is recently dabbling in sports and following the thread. (It is of course NOT ‘Pair of 5s’ by the way – didn’t even think of that possible confusion on the last post re this).

Up to now our poker buddy has been pretty much trailing other cappers online, but he’s interested in and had some questions re the process of making baseball selections - the use of stats, split stats, trends, etc. I’m again posting here my response to some of those basic questions - for what it’s worth and for any useful discussion/comments/input.


In terms of the process of making picks - there are surely as many ways and means as there are handicappers.

One problem we all face in analyzing matchups today is that there is so much statistical information out there now that it’s very easy to over analyze a game. That’s the reason I like the Einstein quote, “Not everything that can be counted counts…and not everything that counts can be counted.”

In talking to handicappers every day, some who are pros in Las Vegas, it’s a constant battle to keep the conversation down to what really matters (to keep the main thing the main thing).

For me, the most elemental "main thing" is the price. Believe it or not - it takes a lot of baseball bettors a long time to grasp that principle. Some never do. As a poker player, you have a big edge there because you certainly appreciate the critical importance of price and have a good feel for the mathematics of win expectation.

You should look at any and every price, whether you are considering laying or taking it, in its purest form - that is the win expectation it implies. I put the formula in the thread a few weeks ago –

Amt at Risk / (Amt at Risk + Amt of Potential Gain) = Implied Win Percentage

The Implied Win Percentage is also your Break Even percentage on the play, - e.g., in the classic 11 to 10 sports play (-1.10) it’s: 110/210 = the infamous .5238. You thus have to hit 52.38% to break even and hit'em better than that to be profitable.

With a solid understanding of price and win expectation - you’re ready to come up with something to measure it against and look for value. That’s where the handicapping comes in and it’s in many ways as much art as science. I know of no specific formula that is consistently successful for the handicapping side of the equation. That said - the selective use of all that available data certainly plays a big role.

The numbers tell a story - but you have to be careful in their interpretation. Personally, I don’t pay attention to stats I feel are overly disaggregated - specific day of the week stats, for example. I don’t care what a club or a player hits on Tuesdays. On the other hand - your mention of LH/RH splits is extremely significant in baseball. I care very much what a team or a player does vs RHers and LHers.

When it comes to trends, I think you should weigh the more current trends over more long term trends. In assessing a team that has won 7/L10 – that stat is obviously a lot more salient if it includes 4Ws/L5 and the team won yesterday than if the same stat includes 2Ws/L5 and the team lost yesterday.

One downfall that I see is a lot of guys get caught up in just going through the motions and the rituals of handicapping – mining through the data – but doing it simply to justify a play they are going to make anyway. Their mind is made up before they start. Not very scientific. Another wasteful thing is the denizens of sportsbooks spend a tremendous amount of time and energy talking about yesterday’s bad beats when the only play that really matters is the next one. If there’s a lesson to be learned in a beat - learn the lesson. If not - turn the page and put your energy into the next opportunity.

Many of the things you look at as a handicapper - things like hot/cold, home/road, injuries, etc. - are common to all sports handicapping. But baseball handicapping has a lot of idiosyncrasies. Much of what is unique about baseball capping is due to the critical importance of the one on one matchup between the pitcher and hitter – but there are other baseball specific factors as well – namely the daily grind of the long season, lineup synergies, bullpens, variations in ballparks, umpires, slumps, travel issues and on and on and on. In most sports, for example, speed is speed. It has a certain value. In baseball - speed has more value in a big ballbark than a small one, both offensively and defensively. It also has more value vs a starting pitcher or bullpen slow to the plate or a catcher who doesn’t control the running game. Another example of this kind of variation in value would be a great knuckleballer or junk baller. He will usually have more value, more of an edge, against a powerful free swinging club (read Tornto Blue Jays) than he will over a weak hitting Punch and Judy lineup (read Seattle Mariners). Things like that are not easily discovered in the data. It’s just knowing the game.

One of the biggest things about baseball capping, I believe, is that the weaker team in the matchup has a better chance to win on any given day than in any other sport. That’s one of the great things about the game - but it’s also the reason why handicapping it can be very problematic. Over the course of a whole season, there is a vast difference between the best and worst teams in MLB. The problem is - we don’t bet the game that way. We bet the games one at a time. As you focus down the time frame to look at fewer games, the difference becomes smaller. If you look at any 5 game stretch - the very worst team figures to win about 2 of them and the very best team about 3. When you’re looking at only one of those games as a handicapper, the difference in win expectation based on just the talent disparity becomes quite small. One thing to know on this point is that the the public tends to value teams on the bigger picture and usually likes the better overall club, the favorite. The market value is thus more often in the dog. As a handicapper, you really need a good reason to bet the favorite. And the bigger the price the better that reason has to be. Very rarely is a big 2:1 favorite a value bet in any given single game.

Also, some things in the baseball handicapping dynamic have, I think, changed. There was a time when the influence of starting pitchers was underappreciated and undervalued by the public, but today I believe the lines have come to reflect an overweighting of the starting pitching matchup because everyone now puts so much emphasis there. The last few years I’ve been weighing the team dynamic a little more heavily in the balance. There are simply times when a team is so hot (or so cold) that it almost doesn’t matter who is on the mound (note the word almost). If there's a crucial aspect of the game the public underappreciates right now it is probably the bullpens - who is available?, how effective are they?, how well rested are they?, how do they match up vs the RBI guys in this lineup? Pro handicappers are using a lot of FF bets with top tier starters any more because in the late innings there are few bullpens that are worth the prices the stud starters command.

There are a hundred other things I could say here and discussion on these subjects could go on forever. When I put this up on the SBR thread, I hope some of those who look in on it but generally say little will at some point down the road add their 2 cents. I will, however, add one last thing about baseball handicapping before I close this up. It has yet to be demonstrated this 2nd half - but unlike any other sport I know of as a handicapper - when you’re running really good in baseball you sometimes get in such a rhythm and groove - get so in touch with the pitchers and the “personalities” of the teams - that when you look at the lines the winners just jump out at you. If you’ve ever done any long distance running, you could equate it to a runner’s high or second wind – you break through and suddenly everything seems very easy. It parallels the game itself - as when a team just gets unconsciously competent for a while or a hitter is seeing the stitches and peas look like beachballs.

If you love the game of baseball - handicapping it is the greatest. But the first and foremost thing to keep in mind is that it’s still gambling. It is not the baseball side of the equation that is the most challenging. It is the gambling side. Very few people are cut out to do it successfully long term and the downside must always be respected. It has ruined a lot of lives - just like any other form of gambling.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Night Plays

WASH – FF ½, ML, RL ½
STL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MILW (Wolf) – FF only
TOR – FF, ML, AltRL ½
OAKL – FF, ML
MINN – FF, ML, RL ½
WSOX –FF, ML, RL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results


When you start the day’s action with both ML and RL bets on a big game - and you go out to a 10-1 lead in that game – the little voice in your head is that of Selma Hayek in a sexy black dress, seductively suggesting some very positive prospects. You have reason to think that this could be your lucky day.

When you watch your team blow that 10-1 lead, the game and both of your plays - the voice turns into that of Emily Litella wearing glasses and an old sweater - saying just two words - “never mind.” All of a sudden, the words “lucky” and “today” will apparently not be pairing up in any way shape or form.

That was our Wednesday. The game was ATL/COLO. And 10-1 is not a typo. It was TEN to ONE. (The biggest lead ever blown in the long history of MLB, by the way, is only 12 runs. The NL record is not even that high – it stands at 11.) To say the least, you might put the possibility of blowing a lead of that magnitude in the category of “highly unlikely.”

In spite of the Braves historical collapse, the early plays still managed a micro fractional profit - thanks to the Royals upset of the Tigers and Danny Haren’s FF rout of TB. In the night plays, we did get big sweeps of the TOR and OAKL plays and pushed a couple of FFs, but took slaps on the rest of the card and dropped just short of 10 Units on the day overall

The bottom line is we find ourselves once again slightly under water for the 2nd half.

The 2nd semester is proving to be quite a test.

Thankfully, we still have until Halloween to pass it.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-26-10 Thursday Plays

Oakl - ff 1/2, ml, rl 1/2
tor - ff, ml, rl
wsox - ff 1/2, ml, rl

[GTeater]

I like the oak bet, the starter has been doing well lately, there top reliever is well rested, and Cleveland is slumping with their worse pitcher on the mound.

[BeatingBaseball]

Oakl A's

I like the oak bet, the starter has been doing well lately, there top reliever is well rested, and Cleveland is slumping with their worse pitcher on the mound.

Yes - not only is the team dynamic all OAKL here, but Mazzaro's last outing was a nice W over TB in which he pitched into the 7th. The entire A's starting rotation is in fact on an incredible and contagious run - every starter going at least 6 inn and giving up no more than 3 runs in 17 straight games.

A's are also playing great team defense - turning a lot of DPs. They are just a tough team to score on - in fact the toughest in the AL at only 8 hits and 3.8 runs allowed per game on the year. Plus CLEV is really struggling at the plate right now.

Defensively, CLEV has allowed almost 5 runs per game (4.9) on the year average - and Masterson is less than average. Plus A's have a little better record vs RHers (4 games over .500) than LHers (3 games under).

Good Luck tonight, G

[GTeater]

Your killing the CWS line. Tough break with OAK, a push and a loss for me.

Guess I should of posted my DET lean, although it felt some what trivial at the time .

I'm up $40 for the day, $100 if the Nats pull it through here. Been using $5 units (.5% of my BR, and placing units based on how strongly I feel, up to a total of 3% max), worked out nicely last couple of nights.

Broke $1,000 today

[BeatingBaseball]

GTeater -

Great night for you G. Always nice to win a wild game like the Nats over Cards last night - esp at a big plus price. Having the stones to go against a Carpenter when you see the right spot and price is the kind of thing it takes to be successful betting baseball.

Congrats - and again thanks for the points you've sent over.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Results

We win the 3 WSOX plays – but lose all the TOR plays.

The night was decided on the OAKL game and after pushing the FF - we drop it 3-2.

Another negative night.

Still struggling this 2nd half to find an angle we can hitch our wagon to and have a run with.

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Plays

I'm late with these..thought I had put them up...

STL – ML, RL ½
CINC – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MILW – ML, RL ½ .
PHIL – FF ½ , ML, AltRL ½
OAKL – FF, ML, AltRL ½
WSOX – FF, ML, AltRL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Results

Great start to the weekend as 5/6 games were profitable, Friday plays going 11-4-1.

The only ML loser was underdog OAKL – lost 3 plays there - but it was more than offset by the underdog WSOX cashing their 3 including an AltRL +280. Cards, Reds, Brewers all came through to perfection and underdog Phils push FF, win the main ML at +1.20, but come up short on the 1/2 play on RL.

Bottom line on the night: +14.73 Units

Back in the green for the 2nd half.

[GTeater]

I'm late with these..thought I had put them up...

STL – ML, RL ½
CINC – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MILW – ML, RL ½ .
PHIL – FF ½ , ML, AltRL ½
OAKL – FF, ML, AltRL ½
WSOX – FF, ML, AltRL ½

Disgustingly good day. I don't use you as a benchmark for one day and loose $100

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Early Play

TOR – ML, RL



TOR
The stars appear almost perfectly aligned here for TOR
Jays get past Verlander with an uplifting 11 inning home victory.
Tigers couldn't sustain their recent roll with their ace - on road it's 1 W in L4.
Figaro going today - just up from minors - 1st start of the year with only 2 relief app.
The Long Ball Jays/Bautista crushing it at home - 96 HRs in 47 home games (W's in 30/47).
Bautista, with 27 bombs at home, has homered in Last 2 games and 22 of last 47 overall.
Morrow going for 5 straight Ws - struck out 12 Yanks over 6 inn on Monday.
TOR 12 games over .500 vs RHers. RL at even money.

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday - Added Day Plays


PHIL – FF ½, ML, AltRL ½
MINN – ML, RL

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Night Plays

STL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
CINC – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MILW – FF ½, ML, RL ½
LAD (Billingsley) – FF only
SF – FF ½, ML, RL ½
WSOX – FF, ML, AltRL ½
KC (Greinke) – FF only
LAA – FF, ML, RL

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Results

Not much to say about yesterday. A bloodbath on the night plays.

Saturdays have been hell - this one our worst day of the second half – and the season.

The day took a dramatic turn with Detroit's 3 run 9th - Kevin Gregg gave up a 2 out, 2 run double to a guy named Casper Wells. It was the second extra base hit of Wells' career and it took our dough on the TOR RL. That started our Saturday slide. A shutout of the Angels by Kevin Millwood, 2-14 on the year going in, ended it.

Bottom line -29.44 Units on the day.

Puts us in the hole once again for the 2nd half.

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Early Plays

cinc – ml, rl
clev – ff ½, ml, rl ½
tor – ml, rl ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Added Plays

wsox – ff ½, ml, rl ½
oakl – ff, ml
colo – ff ½, ml, rl ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

Our 6 games yesterday split the MLs 3-3. The FFs went 2-2 and RLs 2-3.

The CINC, OAKL and COLO winners picked up 13.5 Units with plus prices on OAKL and the 2 RL W's.

The WSOX, CLEV and TOR losers dropped a total of 13.4 Units.

Bottom line - a kissin' your sister day that compared to Saturday feels like a winner.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-30-10 Monday Plays

atl – ff ½, ml, rl ½
sd – ff ½, ml
wsox – ff, ml, rl ½

[GTeater]

Excellent job today G.

I'm on all 3 as well. 2 for 3.

Regrettably the rest of my picks are going south fast. Looking at a small profit/break even day here.

From now on I'm filtering all of my plays to the best 3. If I start hitting I'll increase it from there.

What's your opinion on the variation presented by September baseball? This concern is derived from some respectful cappers advocating smaller bets through September due to tired arms, teams preserving good players/trying out new players, etc. But won't competing teams be playing HARDER in September? What's your experience with this?

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Results

A good, solidly profitable night to start the week.

Our MLs went 2-1 and RLs went 2-0.
On the FFs, we split the two ½ half plays, but cashed the big one (WSOX).

The WSOX and Jenks once again blew the 3 run lead in the 9th - but fortunately we got this one back.
When you’re struggling - even when you win you often have to win ‘em twice.

Bottom line: ATL nets +4.07 Units, WSOX +5.23, SD -3.76 = +5.54 Units on the night.

But we still have some work ahead.

[BeatingBaseball]

September Baseball & Stretch Run

Excellent job today G.

I'm on all 3 as well. 2 for 3.

Regrettably the rest of my picks are going south fast. Looking at a small profit/break even day here.

From now on I'm filtering all of my plays to the best 3. If I start hitting I'll increase it from there.

What's your opinion on the variation presented by September baseball? This concern is derived from some respectful cappers advocating smaller bets through September due to tired arms, teams preserving good players/trying out new players, etc. But won't competing teams be playing HARDER in September? What's your experience with this?

Since the Saturday Night Massacre, you may have noticed that I’ve cut back on plays as well.

For most handicappers, I think it’s only natural to focus on fewer games as the stretch races develop. Most years, I’m betting fewer games but more money down the stretch and into the post season.

As to the tired arm syndrome, you don’t have to wait for September to see it. We’ve seen it already in August with some top quality pitchers who have a lot of innings. Lincecum is probably the best example. He lost a little velocity on the FB and started overthrowing to compensate, lost his release point, had all kinds of control problems, has been pitching behind in counts and has been hit like a mere mortal. I think you’ve also seen it, to a much lesser degree, with Cliff Lee the last couple of starts. Avoiding tired arm with their pitchers or working them thru it is what the better managers and pitching coaches are paid to do. As a handicapper, the IP column and recent trend is always an added consideration in the analysis of individual pitching matchups this time of year.

But the big difference in September baseball, I believe, is team dynamics. Rosters expand Sept. 1 and that certainly has significant impact. You often see the weaker teams get a shot of energy from the addition of young guys who do not yet have their money and who play hard in situations where there is not a lot of team pressure. (The thing about this year is that the managerial changes did that for some of the weak teams early - in August rather than September. It was an anomaly that cost us a boat load - and the big reason we are currently net negative for the 2nd half.) After Sept. 1, you always have to be careful about laying prices against teams that start playing hard together with nothing to lose. There are also opportunities, however, vs the teams that fail to get a bounce from the new blood and just roll over completely. It can get very ugly for them and some years it gets ridiculously easy to identify and fade those losers - easier than picking winners.

The other change in team dynamics is with the contenders and the pressure cooker of the races. That’s where the real opportunities are if you’re right about your assessment of the clubs, particularly the leadership and the pitching. Identifying the teams with the killer instinct when the games get big is basically what this is all about. It’s what you follow the game all season for. And it should be both the fun time and the money time.

Good Luck as always G. Let’s cash some tickets. BB

(By the way – you’re G. I’m B.)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Great insight BB. Enjoyed a safe and profitable trip home. Thanks for the company.

[GTeater]

Once again, thanks for the detailed response. You KNOW your baseball. I didn't follow the entire season, so I'm going to strongly consider tailing for the most part through September (not blindly, just stick to researching games that strong cappers are recommending).

I could of sworn you signed one of your post as G, lol, as in... "original gangster" or something along those lines.

Should of known better from a scholar such as your self . Games are coming up soon, releasing picks?

[BeatingBaseball]

8-31-10 Tuesday Plays

ATL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
WSOX – FF only
BOS – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MINN – FF , ML, RL ½
TEX – FF only
LAA – FF only



ATL
In the end, the big rookie pitching story of 2010 may not be Strasburg - but Minor.

WSOX
Big Sox win last night and Jackson has been great for Sox - yet to give up 2 ER in any of 4 starts.
Sox at 33-33 road - Manny move now in play - crunch time – big moment of truth game
They should battle hard early knowing they have to get out and add runs for pen to hold up.

BOS
Time running out on Francona’s Red Sox - after dropping 2/3 in TB - this as a big game.
Beckett finally off a good one – pitched into 7th in W vs Mariners with 7 Ks.

MINN
Home Sweet Home - Twins 40-22 at Target – W’s in 11/L13 w/ 5 shutouts in those.
Only the Yankees have a better home record in AL. Tigers 22-41 OTR in 2010.
Mauer 9 for 20 with 2 bombs vs Galarraga.

TEX
May not be a big game in division race, but it’s a big game for Lee.
Lee is off 3 losses and hasn’t lost 4 straight in more than 3 years.
Lee is 12-5 lifetime vs Royals. Rangers have W’s in 7/L8 vs Royals.

LAA
Even though he’s up against Felix, Haren off a great outing vs TB at +1.24 FF here has value.
Angels seem to swing the bats in Seattle – 3 homers last night. I’ll settle for 1 jack in FF here.