BeatingBaseball - 2nd Half Thread

[BeatingBaseball]

8/10/10 - Tuesday Plays

TB – ML, RL ½
FLA – FF ½, ML ½
CLEV – ML, RL ½
LAA (Haren) – FF only
OAKL – ML, RL ½
SF (Lincecum) – FF, RL


TB
Rays have beaten Tigers 5 straight. Scherzer coming off 3 losses and Hellickson, in his first MLB start on Aug 2, held the Twins to 3 hits in 7 complete for his first big league W.

FLA
Strasburg will be on a tight pitch limit – something like 90 pitches. He will be keeping it in the zone to an aggressive lineup with their leading hitter, Sanchez, and Cody Ross back in there tonight.
FLA starter Anibal Sanchez got hit in his last start vs Philly, but threw a 1 hitter in a shutout W over SF the outing B4. Sanchez is 3-0 career vs the Nats with a 2.97.
With a win, the Marlins can also go .500 on the road for the year. The lay price on the Nats here is simply too high.

CLEV
As good as the O’s have been of late, I can’t get away from the fact that they are 14-40 on the road overall. That’s .259 baseball - i.e., they have lost over 74% of their road games. New manager or not, at this time of year that number has meaning. At a price of -1.40, we have to win this play 59% of the time to be profitable. 59 is a lot less than 74. +EV.

LAA
Angels have won 12/L18 overall vs KC and 6/L8 at home over them - but the big edge here is the major mismatch in tonight’s starting pitching.

OAKL
All the fundamentals of last night’s teams analysis still apply. The A’s just didn’t put up the 4 runs we figured they would need to win vs Fister last night.
Felix going for the M’s tonight. As talented as he is, he’s only 7-9 on the year and coming off 3 losses. The two teams split his last 2 starts vs A’s. The M’s won in April, the A’s in May.
The A’s go tonight with LH Brett Anderson coming off a W and 7 complete inn over the Royals.
The M’s are 10-26 vs LH starters.

SF
Let’s see:

Cy Lincecum/Giants 14 gms over at home/in a Pennant race/under Bruce Bochy

vs

Cubs

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

Our six games go 3-3, but our plays go 5-6 and we drop 4.18 Units.

We were right on Strasburg in the spot vs the Marlins lineup. We were right on Hellickson. We were right on Haren. But the “powerhouse” clubs - Cubs, Mariners and again the Orioles -put us in the red for the night.

When a major league team makes 3 errors in a game, they figure to lose. But the Cubs got away with it last night and so did the Orioles. When a major league team loads the bases with 0 outs, they figure to score. The A’s did it in the first inning and the Mariners got out of it. That’s just how we’re running right now.

The last week or so would make you believe that all it takes to turn a team around and start winning games is to have a new guy fill out the lineup card. If that’s the case, then Jim Leyland and every manager in baseball is in very big trouble.

The good news in our running bad here is that we’ve kept our patience. We’ve avoided the real bloodbath. That’s the only reason we’re still plus money on the second half. Anyone chasing and stepping up the fade against the O’s in the last week would have been destroyed. You can never say to yourself, “This can’t continue.” When you’re going bad, it certainly can. In fact, it probably will. I call it the probability of the improbable. In periods like this you have to stay in the game, but you go back to basics, cut down your plays and never step up your units. If anything, you step down. You have to survive to succeed.

Everyone wants to make big plays. And so do we. Our plan is always to double up our units at some point in the second half and hopefully push it up further down the stretch and into the post season. But as much as we want to do it, now is not our time. Professionals don’t make big plays on emotion or frustration. You have to earn the right to make the big play and as of yet we haven’t earned it. It’s a lot like the game itself. Everyone wants to hit the big grand slam, but you don’t get that opportunity just because you want the chance. A guy like Albert Pujols had to earn the opportunity to bat in that spot, earn that AB, earn the chance to take that big swing. We too have to earn the chance to put the big plays on the line as well. And we will. But first we have to survive.

Along with not chasing and stepping in front of a freight train, there’s another important thing to avoid at times like this. You can’t waste a lot of time talking about the bad beats. As a group, gamblers waste a tremendous amount of energy obsessing about games lost yesterday. You have to learn to turn the page quickly in this business or you will never be successful. It will eat you up. The only play that matters is the next one. Don’t miss an opportunity by wasting your resources on what happened yesterday. You may get tired of hearing this around here, but it’s true: the main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-11-10 Wednesday - Early Play

OAKL – ML, RL for ½

Two LHers. A’s 3 under vs LHers, but the M’s are 11-26 on the year against them.
When (and if) Braden gets any run support - he wins.
Line started at -1.25. Now down to -1.20. 54.6 break even % at that price is further reduced by a +1.40 RL.
We'll take it.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Early Play Results



A's and Braden win it 5-1. We cash both the ML and RL plays.

Needed that.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-11-10 Wednesday – Night Plays (more to come)

FLA – FF ½, ML. RL (-1.5) ½
PHIL – ML, RL ½
COLO – FF ½, ML ½
CLEV – FF 1/2, ML, RL ½

more to come...

[No coincidences]

I see a lot of people on COL.

What's the angle there?

[BeatingBaseball]

COLO at Mets

I see a lot of people on COL.

What's the angle there?

I like the Rocks tonight because they hit LHers pretty well - esp hit Niese well.
The Mets have also had quite a few games recently where they score only a few or less.
Main thing - I think the price is right for COLO here.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-11-10 Wednesday – Late Plays

SF – ML, RL ½
TEX (Lee) – FF. ML ½, RL ½
WSOX (Danks) – FF, ML, RL ½

[jbofcb]

Hey Beating Baseball, if the Rox would go back to school and learn how to score on the road, they might be somthing to behold...I don't know what it is with them OTR, esp with RISP. The pitching is holding up, but their bats are not. Hey, what's with Balt? Do they think they're the '27 Yanks?
Goodluck, JB of CB

[jbofcb]

BB, Melvin Mora is on baseball's worst team, #30, for batting average with the bases loaded (.198%). However, he is/was batting .348%...and now that average has been raised. Very nice, very nice indeed!

[BeatingBaseball]

Rockies/Mora

BB, Melvin Mora is on baseball's worst team, #30, for batting average with the bases loaded (.198%). However, he is/was batting .348%...and now that average has been raised. Very nice, very nice indeed!

I can't believe Mora stayed back on that ball and was able to clock it. Acosta had thrown him all FB the entire AB and on 2-2 w/ bases loaded you'd have to think he'd surely be looking FB again. Acosta would want to throw a certain strike there and not go to 3-2 and have all those runners moving w/ 2 out on the next one. It was actually great pitch selection if he could get it over. And he did. You have to hand it to Mora. I was cursing him B4 the swing for taking two good FBs to hit - esp the first one.

I sure was wrong about them hitting Niese. But it's good to win - even for the wrong reason. - (The gods of baseball made partial payment on a few like that they owe us from last week.)

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results

On the day - our plays went a strongly profitable 12-7.

The WSOX swept all the plays. PHIL and FLA won both plays as did the A’s in the early game. COLO split profitably 5 inn and 9 as did the Giants ML and RL.

We lost only a fraction (.66 Units) on the Rangers debacle thanks to the overweighting of Cliff Lee for 5 innings.

The only game on which we lost more than a single unit was once again vs BALT. We drop all three bets there and it trimmed 5.09 Units off what would have been a really super great night.

The main thing bottom line for Wednesday: A net gain of 11.68 Units puts us back to up more than 27 Units 2nd half.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-12-10 Thursday - Early Plays

COLO – FF ½, ML ½
MILW (Wolf) – FirstFive only ½



COLO
When he’s on his game and dealin’, Santana can shut down any lineup - but as mentioned yesterday the Rocks hit leftys pretty well. COLO is only 5 gms over .500 on the year, but they are 8 over vs LH starters in far fewer opportunities.


Rockies have also won Hammel’s last 2 starts - Mets have lost 2 of Joahan’s last 3.


It’s worth a shot at splitting 5 inn and 9 – esp since COLO should be amped up after last night. Santana is known for the great change up, but at least one Rocky RH has shown he can hit a change a long way (read Mora).


MILW
Like Wolf here for 5. Still want no part of Brewers’ bullpen.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Added Play

SF - ML, RL 1/2


SF
Team dynamics and motivation matter...
Cain goes for personal over .500 on the year (W/L). Giants go for 6/7 at home and October baseball.
Cubs going for 2nd W in last 7 road games, 3rd win in last 15 overal and getting the season over.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Night Plays

Fla - ml, rl (-1.5) 1/2
phil - ff, ml
clev - ff 1/2, ml, rl
wsox - ff 1/2, ml, rl 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Results

A solid, profitable day

Finally won a game vs the mighty Baltimore Orioles – swept all 3 plays on the game - the full wager (2 Units) on the RL brought in 3.1 Units alone at +1.55.

The Marlins also came thru ML and RL.
We cashed Randy Wolf for 5 innings.
The SF ML was also a winner - but once again the Giants failed to bring in the ½ play RL.
PHIL also split profitable 5 and 9 inn on the big late inning comeback.

The only disappointments Thursday were the Rockies (all Santana all day) and the bigger slap, the WSOX with their first series loss at US Cellular since the first week of June. (You’re never comfortable betting against Santana or Liriano, but grinding out profits is all about the price.)

On the day - we pick up a net of +5.38 Units to put us up +33.28 Units 2nd half.

2 strong days in a row now. Hopefully we're back on track following the variance of the Balt. O's run.


Note re Pickmonitor – Once again our performance was understated. CLEV RL was input as a ½ play, but as documented in this thread it was actually a full play (2 Units).

[BeatingBaseball]

8-13-10 Friday - Early Night Games (more to come)

AZ – ML
PHIL – ML, RL ½
FLA – FF, ML ½, RL ½
ATL – ML, RL ½
CLEV – ML, RL ½
TB – ML, RL ½




Not everything that can be counted counts. And not everything that counts can be counted. - A. Einstein


AZ
AZ has W’s in 6/L8 overall. Saunders a CG Aug 3 vs Nats w/ 1 run, 5 hits
In Nats last 5 overall – 5 losses, hitting .198, outscored 33-12 and starters’ ERA 7.33

PHIL
Closing in on Braves and off huge comeback win, Phils will be very hard to beat tonight.
Have to be pumped coming into NY knowing they’ll miss Santana and have Halladay up next.
Hamels struck out 7 in 1-0 loss to Mets last time - but he’s not against Santana tonight.
Phillies squared up Dickey’s knuckler last Sunday 8 hits/6 runs in 3 innings.
Mets hitting .215 since the break.

FLA
Best in NL on the bump and Marlins off 4 W’s going for their longest win streak of the year.
Fish have won 6/L7 road games. Stanton on fire at the plate.
Reds facing a crisis of confidence after being pantsed by Cards. Dusty inside tonight.
Volquez has been getting away with a ton of walks (19 in <24 innings). That never lasts.
Reds have lost 6/L8 at home after starting 31-20 first 51 there.

ATL
Dodgers lost 10/L15 overall, 1-7 last 8 on road, coming off a monumental collapse last night.
Dodgers now 9 gms under on the road this year, 9 out in West and ready to call it a year.
ATL W 4/L5 overall, 4/L5 at home and have beaten Dodgers 5/7 on the year.
Hudson off a shutout of SF in 8 full and W’s in his last 3.

CLEV
SEA has won 0 of their last 7 road games, 15-39 OTR in 2010.
New manager or not, M’s still a fade.
Carmona is 2-0 with a 2.18 vs M’s.

TB
Notwithstanding the mound matchup, a monumental mismatch.
We’ll go with the Rays and Damon Runyan:
“The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong--but that’s the way to bet.”

[BeatingBaseball]

8-13-10 Friday - Added Night Games

STL - RL
SF – ML, RL ½
TEX – FF, ML ½
WSOX – FF, ML, RL ½



STL
Cards looking to get Westbrook going with 1st W and no better spot to do it.

SF
First of 10 remaining heads up games w/ SD for the West.
SD 2-4 last 6 on road. SF 6-1 L7 at home and showed they’re serious with Guillen deal today.
Confident Sanchez had his no-hitter vs SD last yr and “guaranteed” a 3 gm sweep.
Posey and Burrell smokin’ at the plate.
Richard gave up 5 and didn’t last 4 inin AZ Saturday.

TEX
Rangers have won 4/L5 from BOS and 5/L6 vs BOS at home.
Hunter nice edge on mound over Beckett. Weighing it for First Five.

WSOX
Tigers 1-12 L13 road games. WSOX 21-4 L25 at home.
Mark Buehrle in a big game following the series loss to Minn.

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Night Results

At BeatingBaseball, we're not superstitious. We agree with Yogi - "It's bad luck to be superstitious."

That said, we just had our worst day of the year on Friday the 13th.

15 minutes in last night - Nats put up 3 in the 1st, Reds put up 3 in the 1st, Orioles put up 3 in the 1st - it was clear we were heading for a real bad one.

At this time of year, when you’re leaning chalks and put 10 games out there with multiple plays on most of them, you know that disaster can possibly strike. And it did. Although the games going 4-6 doesn’t sound that bad, the plays go 6-14 as only the WSOX sweep their plays. The single play Cards and Braves come thru, but the only other bet we salvage is the Rangers ML.


It was a bad night from the get-go and the Giants, inevitably, capped it off with our final requisite 1 run loss, 3-2, after leading 2-0 early.

Bottom line - we dropped 17.49 Units and half our 2nd half profits are gone with the wind.

We're still in the green, however, and as my bookie’s wife, Scarlet, said last night: “Tomorrow is another day.”

[BeatingBaseball]

8-14-10 Saturday - Early Plays

SF – ML, RL ½
STL – RL
TB – FF, ML, RL



SF
Might be being too stubborn here, but going against the consensus and staying with the Giants at home. Have liked the SF team dynamic under Bochy. Expecting a max effort and a rebound from last night in what is Giants' biggest game of the year to date. SD feeiling a little comfortable today and as good as Latos has been, he is vulnerable to control problems early plus Sandoval and Whiteside have hit him. Jose Guillen should get his shot to make a splash today as well. Line opened at SD -1.09 and is up to SD -1.20 w/ 56% on Latos.

STL
Carpenter, Pujols (.458, 6 bombs, 14 RBIs in L 11 gms) and Cardinals - or the sCrubs?
The Four Seasons - or Motel 6? Hmmm...

TB
Rays are just too good to be losing a series at home to O’s. Has to be a limit to how long mediocre pitchers can perform over their skis and a weaker club’s hits can keep dropping with 2 outs and men on.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-14-10 Saturday - Night Plays

CLEV – ML, RL ½
AZ - ML
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½
FLA – FF, ML
ATL – FF, ML, RL ½
TOR – FF, ML, AltRL ½



CLEV
Notwithstanding another genius new manager, M’s still have worst road record in AL and have not scored more than 3 in any of recent wins.

AZ
Desert-Dogs own Marquis plus he’s still not back to form after elbow surgery.

WSOX
Sox lineup has scored 19 runs in under 15 innings vs Porcello this year.
Jackson pitching well - beat Tigers last time out. Sox recent home and Detroit recent road record comparisons ridiculous.

FLA
Leake was slammed in last start (vs Cards) - didn’t see 4th. Has lost his last 3.
Reds, 14 over on year, are only 2 over vs LH starters.

ATL
Braves have won 6/L7 overall and 9/L12 at home. Heyward back - ATL is holding up well w/o Chipper.
Dodgers have lost 12/L14 OTR, 3 straight. Have that moribund looks and feel.
Lowe has been very good at home, 5-1 w/ a 3.09 in his L7 home starts.

TOR
Jays are hot – winning 13/L19 overall and 5/L7 OTR.
Bautista has bombs in 11 consecutive series.
Angels lineup was shut out last night -only managed 3 hits.

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Results

Just when it seemed we were back on track going into the weekend, we’re struggling again in a big way the last two days. After a good start in the early games Saturday with TB and the Giants, the late games were another disaster and the day almost a replay of Friday night.

These series have not been kind. We have not come up with our share of the tight, 1 run games – evidenced last night by the Braves losing FF 1-0 and the game 2-1, the Marlins comeback falling 1 run short 5-4, and then the WSOX blowing another 9th inning lead on an opposite field jack by a .210 hitter. That last one was Brian Roberts all over again.

We thought the Reds would be shaken following their wipe out by the Cards. It turns out that it may be the WSOX that may be cracking after their missed shot at home vs MINN.

On the night we drop 13 Units and are back to the drawing board - looking hard to find something that works. You can’t be too stubborn in this business. Sometimes, when current trends (like the extraordinary success of the new managers with bad clubs) contravene your common baseball sense, it’s best not to anticipate what you know should happen but rather participate in what is happening. Participation over anticipation is certainly what would have worked the last two weeks or so. We we were caught on the wrong side of it and got pantsed.

In baseball - Sometimes you win - Sometimes you lose - Sometimes it rains.

We could have used a little rain this weekend.

[jbofcb]

I feel the MLB demagogues conspiring against me..., especially yesterday...

"Father forgive me for I know not what I do" (paraphrasing Jesus circa 30 A.D.)

[BeatingBaseball]

8-15-10 - Sunday Plays

Our time will come - but cutting back after 2 tough days...

FLA – FF ½, ML ½
AZ – FF ½, ML ½
TB – FF ½ , ML, RL ½
ATL – ML, RL ½
SF – FF ½, ML, RL ½
LAA (Haren) – ½ play on FF only

[BeatingBaseball]

Momma said there's be times like this...

I feel the MLB demagogues conspiring against me..., especially yesterday...

"Father forgive me for I know not what I do" (paraphrasing Jesus circa 30 A.D.)

- Hear ya, jb. Nobody said it was easy.

Unfortunately, winning doesn't come steadily day to day. It comes in bursts. And so does losing.

The strategy here is to keep patience - capital preservation and survival.

The big games of the year are still ahead.

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

Our lost weekend concluded Sunday as we came up short once again - this time by 1 game.
Although the ML plays on Tampa Bay and Atlanta held up, the day turned on Tim Lincecum and the Giants’ dismal loss to the Padres.

Even pulling our horns in and making primarily ½ plays on Sunday did not prevent the weekend bloodbath wiping out our 2nd half profits. A Sunday loss of 4.13 Units leave us slightly down for the second semester, -1.42 Units, going into the new week.

It has been anything but an easy 2nd half to this point. A lot of work went into the more than 500 plays we put on so far and the fact that the net result comes down to less than 2 Units (the value of 1 standard play) is pretty amazing. It really underscores the efficiency of today’s baseball lines and the level of challenge we all face in our effort to beat them.

So - it’s a new week. We turn the page, start again “at our beginnings” and hope to make Kipling proud.

“If you can keep your head while all about you…

[BeatingBaseball]

8-16-10 Monday Night Play

Focusing our action on 1 game tonight...

ATL - FF for 1/2, ML full play, RL 1/2



ATL simply kills at home. 41-19 the best home record in MLB (only 1 series loss in 19 so far).
Braves put up three 4-run innings yesterday - pounded out 16 hits - 13 runs their highest output since May.
Hanson on the mound and Braves know they have to keep winning to hold off PHIL.
Dodgers folding fast. In assessing his team, Torre said he saw "no give up out there." - huh?

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Night Results - We'll take it

We cash only the ML on the Braves, but are glad to get it. The 9th inning comeback got us out with a very minor flesh wound, only a fractional unit loss.

The game was a classic example of team dynamics – the Braves positive, the Dodgers negative. We knew going in that if we did lose the play it would likely be because Billingsley was dealin’ – and he was. He took our FF money 1-0 and all ATL could muster was 1 run off him thru 7. When the Dodgers put up the 2 unearned runs Top 8 we look to be dead on all the plays - but when you play Bobby Cox and the Braves you are playing 9 innings and you better have an effective bullpen. They just do not quit – esp at home. It was Atlanta’s 20th win in their last AB this year – tops in MLB.

The 8th and 9th innings of big games is when you really see the influence of the top tier winning managers. You see it with Cox’ Braves and you saw the flip side down in Tampa last night with Ron Washington’s Rangers. Managers do matter - esp from now thru October.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-17-10 Tuesday – Night Games

ATL - RL only
CINC – ML, RL
WSOX – FF, ML ½, RL ½
OAKL – FF only



ATL
A good spot for the Braves’ rookie pitcher Minor - vs Nats at home and coming off the dramatic comeback last night. ATL lineup has some evening up to do with WASH (4-5 on yr vs Nats).
Olsen just had his worst outing of the year last wk vs FLA – gave up 7 and didn’t see the 3rd.

CINC
Young Reds have demonstrated they are not rolling over.
D-Backs are playing better and Hudson has been impressive, but Reds know they have to start this road trip strong in Phoenix before heading to California – Reds have W’s in 7/L8 road games.
Arroyo is 4-1 w/ a 1.60 in his last six starts OTR.

WSOX
When Gardenhire’s team faces Ozzie’s, there is often a disparity in intensity. The Twins always play hard - WSOX effort much less consistent. But this is the biggest series of the year for the Sox - if they’re ever going to be ready to battle, it should be tonight. The Sox have their top 3 starters cued up for the series and Chicago has the best of it in the Danks/Baker matchup here in game 1.

OAKL
Both starters coming off great complete game W’s.
Jays by far the hotter club - but only .400 on the year vs LH starters (10-15).
Jays win with HRs – but Braden does a good job of keeping it in the ballpark, esp at home.
Braden served 0 jacks in 5 of his L9 starts overall - only TEX hit more than 1 (2) in L9 overall.

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

3 of our 4 games were right on script

It's nice when a game plays out almost exactly as expected. Last night it happened in three of them.

Braves rookie pitcher Mike Minor went 6 solid innings and ATL put up 10 runs on the Nats.
Dallas Braden kept the Jays in the ballpark, holds them to 4 hits and TOR goes to 10-16 vs LH starters.
In Phoenix, Arroyo pitched into the 8th and Cincy got their trip off right with a W and a RL cover.

The only fly in the ointment of a perfect night was the WSOX. Even there - after a rough 4 run first by the Twins - Danks and the Sox batlled back and had a great shot at the FF, but lost it by 1 on a D. Young jack bottom 5. Danks then goes 7 full, the Sox play hard and have many chances to win, finally get the lead Top 10, then the bullpen spits it up on the Thome HR. It was the 5th time since the break the WSOX pen has blown a lead in the 8th inning or later, the very reason we weighted the game to the First Five.

Bottom line for the day is we're back in the green for the 2nd half.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Early Plays

MILW (Wolf) - FF only
OAKL - FF only


MILW
The public is ga-ga on Wainwright today and has him way overpriced over a solid pro Wolf here

OAKL
Now under .400 vs LH starters, the Jays face another today in Gio Gonzalez.
Gonzalez, like Braden, keeps the ball out of the seats (only 10 bombs in 24 starts/147 inn).

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Early Play Results

Both Cash

Thanks to the huge +price on Wolf, the sweep nets > 6 Units.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Night Plays

SF – ML, RL ½
ATL – RL only
CLEV – ML, RL ½
CINCY – ML, RL ½



SF
Although PHIL is playing great, chasing Braves for East title - this is a huge game for SF. With Lincecum struggling in his last outing, the road record at 30-30, now 1 gm out of the Wild Card and with Cain on the mound, Bochy’s club needs this one more than Manuel’s. Should be an all out game for SF.
Blanton not going deep in games and Giants should have a shot at the bullpen here.

ATL
Hudson 9-0 vs Nats career. Dunne not seeing it right now and Zimmerman .161 vs Hudson.
ATL W’s in 6/L7 overall and 6/L7 at home.
Nats have lost 7/L9 overall and 4/L5 OTR.

CLEV
Haffner back to form and Carmona 5-2 career over Royals (5 hit ShO vs KC in May).

CINCY
Reds on 6 straight W’s at AZ, outscoring D-Backs 37-14 in those six.
Cards loss to Brewers today can only fire Cincy up more.
Volquez a 1.53 ERA in his last 3.

[No coincidences]

Great call on MIL, BB. I took the Cardinal bait and got my head chopped off.

[BeatingBaseball]

Cards/Wainwright Price Trap

Great call on MIL, BB. I took the Cardinal bait and got my head chopped off.

Sorry you took a hit there, No. I've taken some slaps myself of late and know the feeling.

It's hard to go against Wainwright, but as you well know there's a price at which you have to go against anybody, epecially when you think the other guy (in this case Wolf) gives you a chance. It's not like I knew Wolf was going to win, but at the price I had it I only need to hit 31% of the time to be profitable. Today just happened to be the day.

When we do this every day, it comes down to grinding it out against the price. GL tonight.