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Comment -
Tuesday Night Plays - 8/2/10
SD – ML, AltRL for ½
OAK – ML and RL flat
TOR – FirstFive and ML flat
Not everything that can be counted counts. And not everything that counts can be counted. - A. Einstein
SD
Dodgers are having big problems scoring runs. SD is the toughest team to score on in NL.
SD has won 11/last 16 games overall and 4/last 5 road games. SD has also won 4 of last 6 at Dodger Stadium. LA comes home on 5 game losing streak. Dodgers are 14-19 vs LHers overall. Richard beat Kuroda 6-1 in their last outing 7/28.
OAK
A’s are 8 games over .500 at home, KC 9 under on road. KC was a loser in Bannister’s last 3 starts – he lost to A’s 9-6 on July 18. Cahill has gone deeper into each of his last 3 starts – 8 full in 3-1 win over TEX 7/28 – he beat KC 6-5 7/17. Plus A’s bullpen is very fresh coming in here.
TOR
Jays only 3 games over .500 overall, but 10 over vs RH starters. Jays a pretty fair road team overall at 26-27 with a chance to get to .500. The road .500 benchmark is an added motivator. Morrow’s last 3 starts – all W’s for Jays.Comment -
Monday's (not Tuesday's) Results
Had the title of yesterday's play post wrong (It was not Tuesday), but that's the only thing we had wrong.
Swept all 6 plays on the three games.
Great way to start a week.
Comment -
Tuesday's Early Play
WSOX (Buehrle) - ML, RL for 1/2
Not everything that can be counted counts. And not everything that counts can be counted. - A. Einstein
With the addition of Edwin Jackson, who goes tomorrow, the Sox will go with a 5 man rotation the rest of the way. And with the doubledheader today , in order to keep their 5 on normal rest, they are pitching a minor leaguer (Torres) in game 2 against the veteran Bonderman. That makes it an imperative to get the first one. The lineup, and the staff leader on the mound, all know they can take some pressure off the prospect. It should be an added motivator. The Sox are also only 1 game over .500 on the road for the year. You know Ozzie wants to stay there. Game 1 is his best shot. A third driver is that Buehrle got slapped a little bit vs the Mariners in his last one. He only went 5 and gave up 5. He is looking to personally rebound. He usually does. All that combined with the sorry state of the Tigers and it's Buehrle and the White Sox here - esp -1.10 (5 Dimes) and +1.40 RL (5 Dimes reduced juice).Comment -
Outstanding work again, BB.
Comment -
Tuesdat Night Plays
Thanks to Buerhle and WSox, we did put up our 10 winning plays in a row.
But because it’s all about +units and not about W/L - we’re not going to even think about it - we may give up the streak tonight but we’ll just keep the main thing the main thing and go for the net + on some of these +EV dogs.
It should also be mentioned that - I did it again. Got busy and failed to post the 2 early WSOX plays to pickmonitor or the contests. I did get them in where it matters most ($) and of course they are documented in this thread. It’s the third time this has happened – 6 plays – all winners – and strangely all White Sox. The only problem is that our pickmonitor performance, although reading + 30 some units, is getting seriously understated. The correct figure at this moment is 46 and change.
Tonight's plays:
TOR – FirstFive and ML flat
FLA – FF and ML flat
LAA – ML, RL (-1.5) for ½
OAKL – ML and RL flat
WASH – FF and ML flat
SD – ML, RL (-1.5) for ½
TEX – ML, RL ½
Not everything that can be counted counts. And not everything that counts can be counted. - A. Einstein
TOR
The very public Yanks opened at -140, now up to -150.
Jays lineup much better vs RH than LH starters and Jays have some momentum with last night’s upset win and 5 wins in last their 7 games.
Pitchers - we give Romero the edge over Moseley.
Looking to at least split 5 and 9 inn bets and pick up the change.
FLA
PHIL 2-6 last 8 on the road, 6 gms under on the road for the yr and 1 under vs LH starters.
FLA 11-5 last 16 overall and 4-1 last 5 at home.
I know it’s Halladay, but hey – the Cubs beat him!
At this price we’ll look to split the two plays.
LAA
Guthrie is getting a lot of respect with this price. Too much.
Angels have won 5 of last 6 vs Baltimore.
O’s 1-8 last 9 overall and 2-9 last 11 at home. Still a bad club.
Bell may not last long, but the pen is reasonably fresh.
OAKL
A’s have come down a little since -180 open.
KC 1-7 last 8 on road overall, 0/Last 5 vs OAK overall.
A’s 12-6 last 18 overall, 5-1 last 6 at home.
A’s pen very fresh – not 1 inning last 3 games!
WASH
Team dynamic – Nats 4-1 last 5 overall, 6-1 last 7 vs AZ.
D-Backs 2-9 last 11, 0-5 last 5 at home, 6 under .500 at home on the year.
2 lefty starters – AZ 7-18 vs LH starters. Nats the better club at a + price.
SD
Padres are 19-10 vs LH starters and Lilly coming off consecutive losses to Astros.
All the top rotation starters traded lately - even the studlies like Lee, Haren, Oswalt - have lost their first outing for their new clubs. Lilly no Cliff Lee.
As to Dodgers – we all know their recent record.
TEX
Rangers 19-13 vs LHers.
Tex 15-6 last 21 on road overall and won 7/last 8 vs M’s.
Seattle winless in last 5 overall, shut out last 2 in Minn and 4-11 last 15 home games.
M’s lowest scoring team in AL and lowest in hits per game.
If Washington doesn’t let Ichiro beat them – it's all Rangers.Comment -
Tuesday Results
Bummer.
We just had our worst night of the second half – as bad a night as we’ve had all season - and a great demonstration of how quickly the gods of baseball can turn. And turn hard.
After nailing the White Sox game in the afternoon, booking 10 wins in a row, we win both ends of our Toronto underdog 5 inn and 9 over the Yankees. Then we don’t take down a bet the rest of the night. The last three – all one run losses (3-2, 3-2, 2-1) - destroyed the day.
How one handles such setbacks is a big - maybe the biggest - factor in determining who can do this stuff and who can not. When you’ve put up a couple of solid weeks and you’re sailing along you feel like you may never have a losing day again. Then - out of the blue – back to reality.
No matter how good a handicapper may be, the fact is that what we do is not easy. There are going to be losing days. There are going to be losing weeks. If you fail to respect that – it’s guaranteed to take your head off. It’s very easy to go on tilt and turn a minor setback like last night into a bloodbath. Amateurs do it all the time.
But here we do respect it. It’s call variance. And you must survive it to succeed. It can be ruthless (last night was nothing), but we know from experience that if we do the work and keep our discipline we have an edge - and the edge will prevail. Variance won’t take you out unless you let it.
So we turn the page and we're right back at ‘em today.
Comment -
Good attitude, BB. That's baseball for ya.
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Wednesday Early Plays
TOR - FirstFive and ML flat
OAKL - ML, RL for 1/2
Not everything that can be counted counts. And not everything that counts can be counted. - A. Einstein
TOR
Have to fade the public again today and take the Jays at >+160 to least split the 5/9 inn bets. Yanks are 1-4 their last 5 games. Toronto has won Marcum’s last 3 outings and the opponents have put up no more than 2 runs in any of the three. Hughes has lost 2 of his last 3 and did not see the 7th in any. Jays also have a far better record vs RH starters than LHers.
OAKL
Also have to take the A’s again. Although Alex Gordon beat them last night with a HR and a 9th inning double, the A’s have something to play for. They have a chance today to win their 4th consecutive home series. They’re tied for 2nd with the Angels in the West at 8 back, and TEX is coming to town for the weekend. After last night's loss, the A’s still have won 10 of 13 vs Royals over last 2 yrs. And KC is still only 2-7 last 9 road games.
Hopefully Anderson got the rust out against the White Sox last Friday. KC’s guy, a RHer, just came over from the Angels in late July. He's lost to the Yanks, beat Baltimore and has yet to start against the A’s. The A’s are 2 over .500 vs RH starters on the year.Comment -
Wednesday Night Plays
FLA - ML and RL for 1/2
METS - FF and ML flat
NATS - FF and ML flat
SD - FF and ML flat
WSOX - FF and ML flat
LAA - ML, RL 1/2
BOS - ML, RL 1/2
TB - ML, RL 1/2
TEX - RL, ML 1/2Comment -
Wednesday Results
Two miserable nights in a row. These are the times that try handicappers' souls.
You know you're in trouble when one of your teams gets 17 hits and can't beat the Orioles. Then David Price pitches a gem for one of the most talented lineups in baseball and they drop it 2-1 in 13.
Only the underdog Nationals, the White Sox and Texas came through. Thankfully the Rangers covered the RL.
So we move on - still well in the green on the year and for the second half.
There were also some problems with the pickmonitor site last night. This time beyond my control. The site was down and didn't capture some plays. I really like the site and the concept, but a few glitches now have our tracking a little off kilter. I hate that. Obviously, missing some plays last night is likely to overstate our + units, but as I mentioned in earlier posts we were understating going in. I'll have to square our record off excel and my own log. It's important to be accurate in these matters. Too many players and posters are kidding themselves (or worse) about where they stand.Comment -
Thursday Early Play
WSOX – FirstFive and ML flat
The White Sox and Garcia as dogs vs Scherzer here are a nice +EV.
The Sox have won 8 of their last 10 overall and 4/last 5 over Detroit. The Tigers are 16-21 since the break.
Although Scherzer looked good his last time out and has an impressive record at home, Garcia has been even better at Comerica Park. As a visitor there he’s won 8 in a row with a 2.80 ERA - and he’ll be pitching today with an extra day of rest. If he gives us his usual solid 5 or 6 innings, Konerko (5 for 11 in the series with 2 bombs) and company are a better than even shot to get the money. Would like to play this one 100 times at +130Comment -
Thursday's Early Result
FF ML
We had to win the WSOX ML twice after Jenks blew the save in the 9th - but it’s good to win a couple of bets.
Now we just need to stick the landing with tonight’s plays to put the brakes on our 2 day skid.
That game was a classic value play with the two teams' dynamics going in opposite directions and a heady veteran pitcher who, although he has nowhere near the stuff of the other guy, is not going to make a mistake to such a patchwork lineup or let the one big stud (Cabrera) beat him. The Tigers all want to hit Freddy’s FB, but he just shows it to them way out of the zone and gets them out moving all his junk around. And never gives the big guy anything to hit.
The game actually went off at (5 Dimes) WSOX +145. That implies a win expectation of just under 41%. When I said I’d like to play it 100 times at that break even % - I wasn’t kidding. You have to figure the Sox should take at least 53 or 54 of them.
Thankfully we got away with Jenks’ performance. In the past, we’ve been slapped by almost every one of his blown saves. The nice thing here, however, is that we had our money out at a profit after the Sox cashed 5 innings. The 2nd installment was big, but bonus money.Comment -
Thursday Night Plays - more to come
COLO - ML and RL for ½
SF – FF, ML, RL ½
LAA – FF and RL flat
Comment -
Thursday Night Late Plays
NATS - FF and ML flat
TEX - ML, Alt RL 1/2
SD - FF and ML flatComment -
Thursday Night Results
No fun once again on the night games.
This week's Karma apparently dictates that we just can not win a 1 run contest.
Only SD and TEX swept their two plays. Thankfully at nice prices - esp the AltRL on TEX vs Felix.
We pushed the FF on LAA. Also salvaged a push on the the Giants FF - but lost the double header on the Nats and Rocks.
The good news - with the WSOX winning the two dog plays earlier in the day, we still managed a net profit of a little more than 1 unit on Thursday. That is the beauty of hitting RL plays (esp the AltRLs paying almost +300) in maximizing wins (and mitigating losses due to their reduced juice).
One thing happening lately that goes counter to long standing seasonal trends in baseball is the recent performance of the really bad clubs. The "dog days" of August, the period between the trading deadline ex waivers and the Sept call-ups, is tough on everyone in baseball - but they are traditionally most hard on the weaker teams that have little to play for and are often facing struggles both in the clubhouse and on the field. You can usually look to bet against the Pittsburghs, Baltimores, Arizonas and Seattles this time of year and even lay a little heavier price against them than you normally would. But at least for the first week of August - the weak sisters have been playing some of their best ball of the year. Of course, the new managers in Balt and Arizona are there specifically to make that happen. We'll see if it continues, but the weaker teams have certainly cost us a few bucks this week.
Still in the green and looking forward to the stretch run.Comment -
Friday Early Play
CINC - ML, RL for 1/2
Have to fade the Cubbies. What was that I just said about the really bad clubs?
(No new manager in place at Wrigley yet)Comment -
Friday Early Play Result
FF ML
Once again, we cash both plays on the day game.
Now, if we can only stack some paper on the night contests.
Also - These plays were another case where the action is not reflected in pickmonitor. I'm going to continue to post our plays on pickmonitor - but going forward I'll show our accurate, up to date record as documented by this thread in the signature below.
Our standard play is a 2 Unit play. The 1/2 plays = 1 Unit.Comment -
Friday Night Plays - more to come
SF – FirstFive, ML, AltRL ½
METS – FF, ML
COLO – ML, RL ½
FLA – FF, ML
HOU – FF, ML
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL.
METS
PHIL the big consensus public favorite of the night (66%) and only .500 vs LH starters
SF
Zito beat ATL last 2 outings against them – went 7 full twice and gave up only 1 R in the 14 innings. ATL 1 gm under .500 vs all LHers this year.
COLO – Rocks 5 over vs LHers and Pirates still lowest scoring team in NL. Duke coming off 9-1 loss to Cards where he didn’t see 6th. Hammel went 7 1/3 in win vs Cubs last time out.
FLA –
Cards 4-9 L13 on road. Nolasco coming off 3 wins (vs SD, SF, COLO) in which he gave up no more than 3 and averaged more than 7+ innings.
HOU
In their last 8 games overall, Hou is 7-1, MILW 2-6. Rodriguez coming off 3 wins and went deeper into each (6,7,8 innings). The last two were shutouts and the last one over Milwaukee. Brewers are 7 gms under vs LH starters and Astros have beaten them 5 of last 6.
WSOX
Chicago 9-2 in their last 11. O’s playing better of late, but still the easiest team in the AL to score on (5.4 runs per game). Danks/Bergesen is a colossal mismatch. The Sox staff is in gear - just won on road with Jackson and Garcia, now the 3 at the top of the rotation keep going.Comment -
Friday Night Late Plays
TEX (Lee) – FF, ML, RL ½
NATS – FF ½, ML ½
KC – ML, RL ½
TEX
Two leftys. TEX is far the better lineup vs LHers overall. Plus Braden good, Lee the best. As the games get bigger, Dr. Lee gets better. TEX 17-7 L24 overall, Won 4/L5 vs OAKL.
NATS
Sounds crazy but going here only as pure value play on the overprice. Kershaw coming off a loss and the Dodgers offense shut out last night. Looking for a split of the two plays at +90.
KC
Royals have the better pitcher and by far the better hitting club. KC has won 4/L6 overall. SEA 1-9 last 10 overall and have lost 5/L7 vs KC. This a play as much against the M’s as on the Royals.
Comment -
Friday Night Results
Not an easy session to say the least, but we manage to eek out 1/2 unit profit on the night games:
Kansas City Royals -1.5 +110 - 1.00
Kansas City Royals -148 -2.96
Washington Nationals +200 +2.00
Washington Nationals (1st 5 Innings)+190 +1.90
Texas Rangers -1.5 +110 +1.10
Texas Rangers -148 +2.00
Texas Rangers (1st 5 Innings) -153 +3.00
SF -1.5 +250 -1.00
SF (1st 5 Innings) +142 DRAW 0.00
Houston Astros +115 -2.00
Houston Astros (1st 5 Innings)+110 +2.20
SF+144 +2.88
New York Mets +118 -2.00
New York Mets(1st 5 Innings)+115 +2.30
Florida Marlins+110 -2.00
Florida Marlins(1st 5 Innings)+110 -2.00
Chicago White Sox -1.5 -105 -2.10
Chicago White Sox -165 -4.95
Colorado Rockies -1.5+120 +1.20
Colorado Rockies -135 +2.00
Chicago White Sox (1st 5 Innings)-160 DRAW 0.00
Combined with the 4 Unit win on Cincy/Cubs in the early game, we pick up 4 1/2 on the day.Comment -
Saturday Early Plays
CINC - ML, RL for 1/2
TB - FirstFive only
CINC
Reds the highest scoring team in NL at 4.9 runs per game and have won 5/L6 overall.
CINC also leads NL in hits per game at 9.4
CUBS have lost 8/Last 9 overall, 4/L5 at home and 6/L7 vs Cincy.
TB
Jays are playing well and Mills looked great his last time out, but TB kills left handers (24-12 vs LH starters). Rays are also the toughest team in the AL to score on (allowing 3.8 per game). Shields has won his last 3 and is in form. Don’t want any part of the late innings and bullpen matchup, however, with Balfour and Howell on DL and Jays’ potency vs bullpens. Going w/ Shields for 5 inn.Comment -
Saturday Added Play
TEX - FF and ML flatComment -
Saturday Night Plays
SF - FF an ML flat
COLO - ML, RL 1/2
METS - FF, ML
SD - ML, RL 1/2
NATS - FF 1/2, ML 1/2
WSOX - FF, ML, RL
KC - FF, MLComment -
Saturday Results
Will not be sorry to see this week - and these series - end.
Both Shields and Harden have about the worst outings of their lives yesterday, then the walk-offs in both PITT and AZ get us, and we cap the night with the NATS dropping it 3-2 in 10.
Other than that unpleasantness, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
On the day, we go 7-11-2. We get no points for being just one strike away from 9-9-2 (COLO gm alone).
We drop a painful 8.78 Units.Comment -
Sunday Plays
cinc – ml, rl
nats – ½ ff, ½ ml
sd – ml, rl
minn – ml, rl
tb – ff, ml
wsox – ff, ml, rl
kc – ½ ff, ½ ml
Comment -
I feel/share your pain...esp on ROX!
Relief is not a relief anymore...
Hopefully we will whip them (book) today
Comment -
We'll keep on truckin'. We've been through worse than this before.
Best of Luck, jComment -
Sunday Results
The weaker clubs, the Baltimores of the baseball world, really had their way with us last week.
We ended it, our worst week of the second half and worst of the season, with a loss of 2.92 Units on Sunday. Almost every one run decision broke against us once again. This time it was 4-1 (WSOX, KC, TB, MINN RL all go down by 1 and we pick up only MINN ML 5-4)
For the first time in the 2nd half, we did not cash in the weekly contest. Congrats to russwlms, hugh_morris, SOCALSCOTT, Havana and dherd.
To top it all off last night, after leading all week in the Bracket Contest and keeping our last 3 plays in reserve since the opponent was under water going into the final day Sunday, I failed to realize there were no RL plays allowed in that particular contest. Athough we won the match on points, we were disqualified because there was no way, without the RL move, to make the 3 required plays on the one night game. I screwed it up. If anything - that sums up our week.
But we survived it. And we’re still above water for the second half and profitable on the year.
No doubt this game can get to you at times - but in the immortal words of Crash Davis,
**** this ****in’ game. I quit, all right? I ****in’ quit... Who we play tomorrow?Comment -
8-09-2010, Monday Plays
Back to basics…
TB – ML, RL for ½
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½
OAKL – ML, RL ½
SF – ML, RL ½
TB
Rays got swept in Toronto - but are still 12 games over .500 on the road this year. The Rays may be struggling at the plate, but the Tigers right now are not the Jays. TB looking to break a 5 gm losing streak overall and couldn’t find a much better club to do it against (Cubs are in NL). In late July, TB swept Detroit 4 straight down in Tampa.
David Price here has a chance to take the AL wins lead with 15 – he pitched great his last time out giving MINN only 1 run in 7 inn, but the Rays lost 2-1 in 13. Galarraga lost his last one to the WSOX 4-1.
The lay price of -1.58 implies the Rays should win this one 61.2% of the time. I think they’d get it at least 2/3. +EV
WSOX
Here we go again. I know, Showalter is John Wooden and the O’s are suddenly The Big Red Machine. Sorry, I’m not buying it. Even winning 5/L6, Baltimore is 8-15 in their last 23. The WSOX are 10-4 in their last 14 overall and have come out on top of all LH starters 60% of the time this year (15-10). Matusz is less than your average big league left hander at 4-11. Jackson has won his last 4 starts vs O’s and is coming off a big win in his WSOX debut (7 inn., I run, 6 K’s, 1 BB). He was throwing 98 at times in that game.
-1.31 implies a 56.7% win expectation. Shouldn’t the WSOX win this one 57% of the time? If you don’t think so, I’d like to fade you 100 times and see.
OAKL
The A’s have been rolling and now trail TEX by only 7.5 games – that’s a lot of incentive to go out and beat the weakest team in the division here. Although SEA has played OAKL extremely well up in Seattle, the M’s are only 7-14 in their last 21 at home overall. The A’s have won 6/L8 over SEA overall.
M’s are the weakest offense in the league game at 3.3 runs/game and the A’s are the 2nd best overall defense in terms of runs allowed/game. The A’s have done a good job on Ichiro and that’s the key to stopping the M’s. Ichiro has only scored 3 runs in his last 9 gms vs A’s. Fister didn’t see the 5th and gave up a season high 7 runs to Texas in a home loss the last time out. If the A’s can put up 4 here, maybe even 3, they should win.
-1.05 means only a 51.2% break even percentage. +EV
SF
Giants had a tough weekend in ATL, but they’re back home now - only down 2 games to SD in the West and only ½ game out of the Wild Card. You might say they have a lot more to play for than the Cubbies. Piniella will again be absent. (If it’s not one thing, it’s your mother.) The Cubs have lost their last 5 road games and 10/L11 overall.
Bumgarner may be a little iffy coming off 2 losses, but look who he’s pitching against. (How do you say iffy in Spanish?)
Comment -
Thank you for your thoughtful comments regarding my father. His memorial service is on Friday. On a different note, I will be in Las Vegas August 25-29. Perhaps we should meet up.Comment -
Monday Results
We split the primary ML plays 2-2. Only the Rays covered both ML and RL.
We cashed the WSOX FF, but the O’s got the game once again. You can be sure Putz was told that if he got behind Roberts, the leadoff man bottom 10, be sure not to walk him. He didn’t. It was Roberts first HR of the season – also the first win on a Monday for the O’s all year and it concluded Baltimore’s best home stand since 2004.
It seems the only thing in baseball you can rely on lately is the Cubs – to find a way to lose.
By the way - all the scouts sent to AT&T to see if Zambrano was worth a deal could not have been impressed. He walked 7 and most of his stuff was 86-88. He touched 90 on the gun only a couple of times in his 5 innings. Had to get a kick out of D. Lee joining Piniella and leaving the team - going on the “bereavement” list to be with his ill grandfather – the day Zambrano makes his return to the rotation. Z didn’t like the way Lee played 1st base in Chicago six weeks ago, so Lee let somebody else play it (and swing the bat) for him. What a tight, professional ball club!
Bottom line main thing - we come up 1 play and 1 swing short of profitability on the night.Comment
