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Comment -
Tuesday Plays
Lot of action out there tonight:
PHIL - ML and RL (RL 1.5X)
HOU - ML
MILW - ML and RL flat
COLO - RL
LAD - ML
Strasburg/Hanson - FF UN 3.5
TOR - RL
TEX (Lee) - FF -.5 run only
WSOX - FF, ML and RL (RL 1.5X)
MINN - ML and RL flat
- back of the envelope:
PHIL – Hamels off 3W’s, has gone at least 7 full in his last 5 starts. AZ 6-16 vs LHers. Phils have won their last 5 games and AZ has lost 4 in a row. Has to be a letdown after the white flag trade of Haren. Kirk Gibson faces a big job keeping this club them playing through dog days.
METS/STL – Pass - as Mets have been so tough to score on at home and Cards have been struggling to score of late. Wainright is fully priced here.
HOU – Rematch of a week ago in Wrigley where both went 7 and Hou won it 4-3. Both lineups are a little better vs LHers, but Myers’ last 3 all W’s in which he went 7+ in all 3 and never gave up more than 3. HOU has won 6/last 9 vs cubs overall and 4/last t6 in Houston.
MILW/CINN – the two highest scoring lineups in the league. Brewers hot right now, winning 5 in a row. Winner in this one will have to pitch. Gallardo coming off a W where he went 8 full. Volquez coming off a bad one where he didn’t finish the 2nd. Unlikely this one will be decided by 1 run. A flat run line wager will mitigate the price on the home fav.
COLO – Not sure COLO should be -2.10 over anyone right now and the pitchers are pretty equivalent lefties, but Rocks are by far the better club, even more so vs LHers. Rocks’ home scoring #1 in NL and Pirates’ road ERA is #16. Have to go COLO RL only.
LAD – SD the better club, but two RH starters just about closes the gap – esp with Billingsley coming off a complete game shutout. Garland hasn’t seen the 7th in his last 3, although SD won two of them. LAD not scoring much lately, but actually score a little better on the road.
Hanson/Strasburg - under
Johnson/Cain UN FF – only play for me, but won’t play it at 3.
TOR RL – Toronto hits the long ball. Millwood has given up 21 HR on the yr - 2 bombs vs TOR in 6 inn back in May - his WHIP is over 1.5 on the year and the AL is hitting him at a .306 clip. Run Line
Cliff Lee – FF – Both teams playing well, but if A’s don’t score in the 1st we should cash. TEX will score - lay the 1/2 r
WSOX – Floyd FF, ML and RL. WSOX 5-0 in last 5 at home. SEA 1-4 in last 4 road gms. WSOX have won 6 of last 7 vs SEA. The SEA win came 2-1 in a game Floyd started. WSOX owe Gavin one here.
MINN – Twins are in gear - 6-1 in last 7, all on the road – Pavano off 2 complete game W’s. Royals have lost 4 of last 5 overall. Run LineComment -
Tuesday Results
Another Very Big Night
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Action on 10 games (9 if Strasburg listed)
15 plays go 11-3-1 (12-3 if Strasburg not listed)
ML's go 5-1 (Philly, Hou, Dodgers, White Sox and Minn all W's)
Only ML loser Milwaukee.
1.5X RLs go 2-0
Flat RLs split 2-2 profitable
FFs go 2-0 and a no action (3-0 if you didn't list Strasburg)
Now runnin' as we should be.Comment -
Comment -
Thanks, No. Hope you got a piece of that score. BOL.Comment -
Wednesday Afternoon Play
MINN – First Five ½, ML flat, RL ½
Duensing a better than ave. Lher - has been a reliever and should be good early for FF - just learning the starter role. He doesn’t go deep in games yet, but Minn bullpen is reasonably rested and Twins’ bats are smokin’. KC 9-12 vs LHers overall. Bannister has lost his last 3 – 14 ER in less than 18 inn. The old “fade the road team going for sweep” does not apply here.
Will pass on Cubs/Hou and Cincy/Milw
Still lookng at Bos/LAA
Comment -
Pass On Bos at LAA
Can't force a play here. Angels not worth a price right now and Beckett still suspect despite the last 2 W's.
Pass.Comment -
Wednesday Afternoon Results
Twins
Chicken Dinner on our day game - Duensing gave us a good 6 innings – pen held up.
Twins sweep all three moves – FF, ML, RL – and the series.
Something in the handicapping on this one I meant to add – a situation angle - MINN was playing to reach .500 for the season on the road today. That .500 road benchmark, to reach or exceed it, is always a big game in the minds of winning managers like Gardenhire. No MLB club can put the big team effort out there every single day - and it’s the lack thereof that often trips us up when we lay prices - but when a club has been playing well to reach this situation, although it’s never a guaranteed win, at least you shouldn’t see a let down in the effort. It’s worth at least .05 on the price.
Comment -
Wednesday Night Plays (more to come)
PHIL (Halladay) – FF (-0.5 run) and RL flat
CLEV (Carmona) – FF and ML flat, AltRL ½
TOR – ML and RL flat
SF – FF UNder 4 and Game Under 8 for 1/2
TB – RL only.
- Back of the envelope
PHIL – Streaking like Twins. What’s to say? It’s Halladay. And it’s the D-Bags. The ML is fully priced so we take it in RL pays.
CLEV 11-5 in its last 16 at home. We didn’t get Westbrook in gm1, but Tribe got them last night. Carmona has been solid and A.J. is still suspect. At this price, just a FF/ML split, picking up the change, will score a fair profit.
TOR – Even with Mills out there, have to go with Jays here. TOR pen is in good shape going only 7 innings in last 3 games. Also like Bautista right now vs Guthrie (5/15, 1 Jack, 2 RBI vs Guthrie).
SF – Marlins lineup strikes out a lot (8 per gm), Estabrook, like Jim Wolf, a serious Under ump, averages only about 5 BB/gm and 14+ K’s per gm. Also odd start time with potential visibility issues at plate at AT&T.
TB – Detr only 2 runs in first 2 games. Tigers draggin’ with Magglio DL’d along with Inge and Guillen – plus Leyland suspended tonight for yesterda’s blow up. Dog days for the cats.
Comment -
Added Wednesday Night Plays
OAKL – FF and ML flat
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½
COLO - ML and RL flat
SD – ML at 1.5X
OAKL – Both clubs playing well. 2 solid RHers - but at this price have to like the A’s, winners of 9/12 overall and 4/5 road games, as we look to at least split the 5 and 9 inning bets.
WSOX – Like last night, an easy choice again here both on the pitching and team matchups. SEA is terrible vs LHers (10-22) and WSOX are 3 over vs southpaws (12-9). Sox undefeated in their last 5 at home vs SEA. You lose these at times, but win at a greater % than -1.70 implies.
COLO – Rocks 9-2 in last 11 at home. Pitt 3-22 last 25 road games. Ohlendorf 1-8 on yr.
SD – Padres 8-3 last 11 overall, 6-1 last 7 at home. Dodgers 3 games under (14-17) vs LHers).Comment -
Nice night other than the Rockies. They got me, too. Cook was awful, and their offense was non-existent.
Comment -
Rocky mtn Low
No coincidences said:
Nice night other than the Rockies. They got me, too. Cook was awful, and their offense was non-existent.
No -
The Rocks are definitely on probation for the foreseeable future - even with Jimenez. Since the break, they are a mystery for sure. 10 hits tonight, 9 LOB. Herrera in the 2 spot had 5 LOB himself. And you're right on Cook - his 2nd bad effort in a row.
It was a play against the Pirates as much as it was a play on the Rockies. Sometimes it's easier to find losers than winners (read Baltimore Orioles). But that's what makes it a great game. On any given day...
At least the rest of the Wednesday plays more than covered the cost of doing that business.
Appreciate your following the thread, No - also appreciate your comments/input.Comment -
I couldn't agree more. Figured they'd break out of their "funk" tonight. I honestly think Ohlendorf getting hurt was a break for Pittsburgh. The Rockies didn't adjust well to Gallagher coming in, and PIT used that momentum to their advantage.
COL is really pressing right now; after CarGo homered, Tulo singled and got thrown out trying to stretch it into a double. Just stupid. He stays on base, gets knocked in by a double later, and who knows what would've happened.
Anyway, I like the thread. Keep up the good work.Comment -
Wednesday Nigh Results
Another very strong day and night.
Winners PHIL, TOR, TB, OAKL, WSOX and SD more than offset disappointments on COLO, CLEV and our SF Under.
Our biggest single ML play was SD - we picked up RL covers from PHIL, TOR and TB - plus a beautiful sweep of 5 and 9 inning bets by dog play Oakland.
Apparently there were no shadows or visibility problems at AT&T.Comment -
Day Game Plays - Thursday 7/29
TB (Price) - RL
ATL (Lowe) - First Five
TB
The Tigers appear to be heading for sub. 500 soon. They have a nice record vs LH starters, but it's not now the same Detr lineup that posted it. No one to protect Cabrera. TB pitched around him in a game situation last night. Longoria may have come out of his slump last night and with Price out there, even with Upton and Zobrist out, it's a Run Line play. The ML is fully "Priced."
ATL
Nationals struggling. Lost 4/last 5. Lost 4/last 6 at home. Lost 8 of last 12 vs ATL. Always like Derek Lowe for 5 if the sinker is sinking. Hopefully it will be.Comment -
Note 2010 BlueJays vs Run Line
Although they are 53-49 on the year, the Jays have been #1 in MLB this year vs the Run Line.
Toronto's Run Line record is an amazing 63-39, +22.74 Units.
The other top RL covers so far in 2010 have been the Mets, SD, Yanks and Atlanta.Comment -
Thursday Night Pays
After splitting the two day games, this is tonight’s menu:
OAKL – FirstFive, ML, AltRL 1/3
KC – ML
SD – ML, RL for ½
PHIL – ML, RL ½
OAKL
No question Texas is solid and should be a favorite to win the rubber game at home, but the A’s are playing great right now. OAKL has won 10/13 overall and 5 of their last 6 on the road. Plus they just play the Rangers too well down there to be getting this price, even with a top LHer on the mound in Wilson. OAKL has won 6 of their last 9 in Arlington. Admit the A’s lineup does have some problems with leftys (2 under on the year at 12-14), but they also give up little scoring (#2 in AL at 4 .0 runs per game). If Wilson has one hole it’s that he walks too many guys. He’s no Cliff Lee in that respect. The A’s also just seem to score for Mazzarro (10 runs his last time out, 9 the start before that). We may lose this one, but I’d like to play it twice at this price - every day for that matter. Hope Kinsler is out again tonight, but I doubt it.
KC
At lest Kyle Davies is improving. Plus Royals have to feel great about the Twins leaving town.
SD
Padilla is no Latos – Plus Dodgers are just not getting the job done on the road (1-5 last 6, 22-26 on the year).
PHIL
Even with Kendrick, -1.50 is +EV for hot Phils at home vs D-Bags
Will be capping SEA at WSOX later. Good Luck to All.Comment -
Thursday Night Added Play
WSOX - ML, RL for 1/2
For SEA starter Pauley, this will be his 9th big league start over a 5 yr period with both SEA and BOS. He has yet to post a W (pitcher's decision) against 5 losses. Tough to get your first one with this team behind you on the road vs a team that has beaten them 8 of last 9. I have this priced at WSOX -1.85 to -1.90 --- so -1.68 is a play.Comment -
Thursday Night Results
After splitting the afternnoon pair, our Thursday night ML's went 3-2.
The WSOX covered the RL as well, but PHIL and SD were winners by only by a run.
The 3 profitable games covered the OAKL loss, but we came up one game short of extending our 4 day streak of solidly profitable days when KC blew a 2 run lead and lost to the O's 6-5 in 11 innings.
The 8th inning jack by Corey Patterson to tie the KC game was the big swing. He's been a thorn in our side more than once this year - still hurting from his 9th inning 2-strike grand slam in Texas which trimmed our first half profits in the last series before the break.
Our recent run made us solidly profitable for the 2nd half as we go into the weekend. PickMonitor has us up 17.83 units, but it's actually better than that as I forgot to post the WSOX, last night's final play, on their site. I only posted it here. That's the second time that has happened in the last two weeks - both times WSOX and both big wins. In real American $, the only place it matters, we are actually up 23 units and change.
The main thing is - we're in the green.
Comment -
Friday Night Plays
PHIL – FirstFive (-.5 run) for ½, ML, RL for ½
METS – ML
HOU – FF for ½, ML for 1/2
TOR – ML, RL ½
TB – ML
MINN – ML, RL ½
Late games to follow...Comment -
Friday Night Added Plays
FLA – ML
SF – FF (-.5 run) for ½ , ML, RL for ½
TEX - MLComment -
Add First Fives FLA and TEX
Fla - ff
tex - ffComment -
Friday Results
A profitable start to the weekend
We had action on 9 games Friday:
The ML's went 6 wins 3 losses. The HOU, TOR, TB, MINN, FLA and SF wins more than offsetting our chalky loss on PHIL, the -1.40 METS and underdog TEX.
The FFs were 3-2 profitable.
The RL's split 2-2, only fractionally profitable as the Dodgers plated 3 in the 9th vs SF for a 6-5 final.
We'll take it.
Comment -
No Action on Saturday Early Game Clev/Tor
CLEV (Westbrook) at TOR (Cecil) - PassComment -
Saturday Early Play
San Franciso - MLComment -
Saturday Night Games
PHIL – ML, RL ½
HOU – ML, RL ½
METS – ML, RL ½
FLA – FF and ML flat
WSOX – ML, RL ½
KC – RL
TB - ML
HOU
Brewers weaker vs LH starters than RH overall. Bush gave up 5 HRs in last 28 inn. Astros team dynamic/momentum right now w/ 3 gm streak. Brewers 2-4 last 6 and bullpen a little stretched (13 innings last 3 gms).
METS – D-Backs 6-17 vs LH starters. Also 14-36 on road overall. Mets 32-18 home.
FLA – Nolasco on normal rest, Correia on 7 days - Nolasco much better numbers than Correia last 5 starts. 6 bombs off Correia last 28 innings. FLA has won the last 5 in SD.
WSOX – Sox 19-1 in last 20 home gms – Sox better than A’s vs LHers
Comment -
Add Saturday Night Late Game
LAA (Haren) - First Five onlyComment -
Saturday Results
We started off Saturday on the right foot with our Giants win and by dodging three other early contests that were very tough to cap.
The last few days of the July trading deadline, with all the rumors and actual deals, are always precarious for handicapping. There is a lot of distraction and uncertainty on both the contending clubs and the weaker teams. The "sellers" are especially tough to cap on team dynamics. The effect of losing established guys is not always negative. It can be counterintuitive in many cases as the younger players get pumped and sometimes come together.
With Houston, Florida and the Mets coming through in the night games, we might have had a great day - but a few swings of the bat put us in the red. After coming back for a 9th inning lead, the chalky Phils hurt us for the second day in a row thanks to Brad Lidge serving up a walk off bomb to Zimmerman of the Nats. TB out hit the Yanks 9-6, but lost it on Cano's 9th inning jack. KC won their game, but only by 1. And although Danny Haren pitched great, one swing by Guerrero took our dough in the FF bet on the Halos.
Of our 9 games, the White Sox were the only one of the five losses where it didn't come down to one swing.
All in all a disappointing day, but we survive - still solidly in the green.
Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.Comment -
Sunday Plays (more to come)
Welcome to August baseball.
Now the fun starts.
The fun…
ATL (Hanson) – ML, RL for ½
METS (Niese) – ML, RL ½
PHIL (Hamels) – ML and RL flat
TB – (Shields) – FF and ML flat, Alt RL 1/3
TOR – ML, RL for ½
More to come…
ATL
Team - Braves a little better. Starter - Hanson a lot better.
METS
AZ 6-18 vs LH starters
PHIL
One more time - 3 is a charm
TB
Rays 22-11 vs LH starters, 7-1 last 8 overall, 7-1 last 8 at home. Shields coming off 2 W’s, Sabathia off a loss.
TOR
Jays won 4/last 5 overall, 4/last 5 at home. Also 11 games over vs RH overall. Clev 2-6 last 8 overall and 14 under vs RH overallComment -
More Sunday Plays
STL (Wainwright) – RL only
MILW (Wolf) – FF only
CUBS – FF and ML flat
FLA (Johnson) - FF only
WSOX – ML only
KC – RL only
MINN (Liriano) – RL only
TEX (Lee) – FF and ML flat, RL ½
STL
Pirates 29 games under .500 vs RHers overall and facing one of the best today.
Cards now 20 games over .500 at home.
MILW
Wolf coming off a good one vs Cincy.
NL hitting .325 in 19.1 inn vs Wright this year.
CUBS
See a little value in the ragged Cubs here w/ Silva. Think they can split the 2 plays.
De La Rosa has given up 5 jacks last 25 inn.
FLA
Josh Johnson
WSOX
Floyd’s last 5 starts – 33.2 inn, ERA 0.80, WHIP 1.04
KC
Millwood’s last 5 outings – ERA 9.53, WHIP 2.21
MINN
Major mismatch of clubs. Major mismatch of LHers.
French hasn’t pitched in 3 wks. Plus SEA 10-23 vs LHers.
TEX
Don’t like going against J. Wright, but can’t pass up Dr. Lee.
Angels 1-5 last 6 overall, 1-5 last 6 at home - and facing the stone cold killer.Comment -
Sunday Night Late Play
SF - ML, RL 1/2
Team dynamic all Giants - won 4/last 5 overall and 8/last 10 overall. Dodgers have lost their last 4 and have been a weak road team all year. Cain is on normal rest. Although always capable of shutting you down, Kershaw is on 6 days. Hopefully Cain keeps it in the ballpark - he's had some problems with the long ball recently - 6 bombs in last 35 innings.Comment -
Sunday Results
The Giants win and RL cover in the late game - thanks to Matt Cain and Edgar Renteria - put the day in the green - but only fractionally so.
RL plays broke posiitive on the day with covers on PHIL, STL, MINN, SF +185 and a big home dog AltRL winner with Shields over Sabathia at +235. The RL plays carried the day.
MLs were negative at 4-5 on the day, our major setbacks the the Mets, Toronto and Texas.
FFs went 1-2-2 as both the Wolf and Johnson bets pushed.
After a bad start on the day with 1 run losses on Atlanta and Toronto, we managed to get out of the trap.
All in all - a good, profitable week.Comment -
Weekly Contest / Bracket Contest
BeatingBaseball once again cashed (5th) in the Weekly MLB Handicapping Contest - 7/26 which ended yesterday.
Congrats to tltaylor89, dufuss, LUCHYCHUCK and moses 27.
BeatingBaseball advanced to round 3 in the MLB Betting Bracket Contest, surviving a strong challenge by pimike in round 2 ending yesterday.
The Bracket Contest is now down to 64 from the original 256 entrants.Comment -
Main Thing 101 - Review Never Hurts
When laying or taking a price –
ALWAYS look at it through the lens of its Implied Winning Percentage (IWP).
The IWP is also your break even percentage.
Remember: IWP = Risk / (Risk + Potential Gain)
Example: Laying -1.10, the typical 11-10 sports bet: 110/210 = .5238
In using IWP, you’ll respect a price such as -1.52 for what it really is - you'll see that winning it at 60% is not enough – lay it 10 times and it only takes 4 losses to put you in the red.
And using IWP, you will also better appreciate the value in +1.52!!
Anybody can pick >50% MLB winners. BeatingBaseball is all about beating the price.
Good Luck To AllComment
.... on the Rays as well.ML-170