BeatingBaseball - 2nd Half Thread

[BeatingBaseball]

Great insight BB. Enjoyed a safe and profitable trip home. Thanks for the company.

Enjoyed it as well, 5's. You have to try the veal next time - not to mention the onion soup and the crabcakes.

Saw that you had a nice run in Fun Town. I definitely have some catching up to do.

Good Luck tonight.

[BeatingBaseball]

Once again, thanks for the detailed response. You KNOW your baseball. I didn't follow the entire season, so I'm going to strongly consider tailing for the most part through September (not blindly, just stick to researching games that strong cappers are recommending).

I could of sworn you signed one of your post as G, lol, as in... "original gangster" or something along those lines.

Should of known better from a scholar such as your self . Games are coming up soon, releasing picks?

Thanks, G - but right now I'm not so sure how much I know. I can only hope the sum of any knowledge I have is not reflected in the 2nd half record at this point. There's an old saying in baseball:
"You are what the scoreboard says you are."

Keep in mind also the well documented fact that knowing the game is only part of what it takes to be successful at this. If that were not the case, a guy named Pete Rose would not have had his ass kicked doing it. (If anything speaks to how difficult this is to do - his performance has to be it.)

Good Luck tonight. If you tail any of my plays - may they always be the right ones.

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

With the split of the ATL and BOS plays, the mixed results in MINN and the 0-0 pushes of the FFs on Edwin Jackson and Danny Haren - the night came down to the TEX FF.

We end the month with a final, frustrating loss to add to our August collection:
TEX went bottom 5 with a 6-4 lead - Lee on the mound - we were one out away - but once again - no dice.

Very glad to see September.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-1-10 Wednesday Early Plays

WSOX (Garcia) - FF only
SD (Latos) - FF only

[GTeater]

I strongly agree with both of these; no explanations needed!

2x on both.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Added Early Plays

Wsox - ml 1/2, rl 1/2

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Night Plays

oakl – ff, ml
minn – ff ½, ml, rl ½
bos – rl
fla – ff ½, ml, rl ½
atl – ml, rl ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results

A very good day on Wednesday. 11-4 over all plays

ATL and FLA swept all plays. We cashed both single plays - SD (Latos FF) and BOS (RL).

WSOX cashed all but FF and MINN won both the FF and ML but came up short on the 1/2 play RL once again.

The only clunker was underdog OAKL which came up a run short on both FF and the game.

All 4 losses yesterday were by only a run.

Over the course of a baseball season you know you're going to lose (and win) a ton of 1 run decisions. But our record this second half in the squeakers is so dismal, so far below the mathematical expectation, it's a wonder we haven't been absolutely buried. Anything can happen - and I'm not saying it has to turn around - but I have to believe it's unlikely that we can continue dropping 1 run decisions at the rate we have the last two months.

Bottom line - we pick up 9.23 Units on Wednesday's 11-4.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Early Play

OAKL – FF ½, ML ½



OAKL
Always tough to go against Sabathia – esp in Yankee Stadium.
But consider:
at +2.05 the break even here is 32.79% on Braden and the A’s.
Also consider:
Braden just threw a complete game shutout at the Rangers on Saturday – 4 hits.
Braden is 5-2, 2.37 since the break.
Braden has pitched a perfect game in 2010.
Braden did win over Sabathia in April - gave up only 2 runs - “Stay off my mound.”
Braden is the type of kid who will love what the NY fans will be dishing out today re the above.
OAKL is 30-13 in day games this year.
Sabathia’s worst career record is vs Yanks – his 2nd worst is vs OAKL.
Sabathia - although he won his last – did not pitch well – gave up 5 to WSOX thru 7.
If the A's get 5 today you have to like our chances to at least split a FF and ML.
Last point –
Baseball’s worst, most inconsistent umpire - C.B. Bucknor - behind the plate here makes the game more of a crap shoot – adding value to the dog.
Not saying we'll win – but if we do this 100 times there's no question in my mind the +EV side is the A’s here.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Night Plays

atl – ml, rl ½
bos – ff ½, ml, rl
minn – ml, rl ½
phil – ml, rl

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday Results

With losses on OAKL, ATL and winners on BOS, PHIL - the day came down to the ugly MINN game which we dropped 10-9 in 13 innings.

Bottom line was a loss of 3.7 Units on the day.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-03-10 Friday - Early Plays

Mets - ml, rl 1/2
tor - ff, ml

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Night Plays

TB – FF ½, ML, RL ½
KC – FF only
MINN – FF ½ ML, RL ½
CINC – FF, ML
HOU – FF, ML, AltRL
CLEV – ML, RL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Friday Results

We had action on 8 games on Friday.

The two early games (TOR, METS) lost all plays. The night plays got off to a fast start with winners in the first three games (TB, KC ff, MINN) offsetting the day’s early losses and sending us into the last three games of the night 5-5 on plays overall and down only .02 Units on the day. We were shut out from there – taking one run losses in all 3 MLs (CINC, HOU, CLEV) and both FFs (CINC, HOU), going 0-7 on plays in the 3 games.

On the day, we go 5-12 on plays for -11.98 Units.

It’s been a tough 2nd half - but still a lot of baseball ahead.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-04-10 Saturday Early Plays

METS – FF, ML, AltRL ½
TOR - FF, ML, AltRL ½
WSOX (gm 1) – FF, ML, Alt RL ½

[GTeater]

What up B?!

About to have one hell of a weekend man, huge venue in Austin, TX! This is what I live for!

Any way, I'm blindly trailing b.c I don't have time, BOL to us!

PEACE,

-G

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Night Plays

WASH – FF, ML, RL ½
HOU – FF, ML
TB – FF ½, ML, RL ½
WSOX (gm 2) – FF, ML
SF – FF, ML, AltRL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Saturday Results

Long story re yesterday - 1st time I completely missed getting a set of plays posted. It was the middle set of the day and of course (Murphy's Law) the results were positive. I realized it about 15 minutes in and it really bugs me that it happened - but there was no point in past posting them and we have no choice but to ignore them completely for the purposes of the thread.

The two sets of plays that did get up - thanks to the underdog WSOX sweeping 5 plays, the NATS sweeping 3 and comeback wins by dogs HOU and SF - managed to overcome the TB disaster and other losses to eek out a micro fractional .4 Unit profit while going 10-11-1 on the day.

[BeatingBaseball]

GTeater

G -
Sorry about the screw up with the posting yesterday. Even though I got the money in I feel very bad about it and I'm hoping you were too busy to even check in here. As you said in your post it is a helluva weekend and time is an issue. Hope you're having a great one.

[BeatingBaseball]

8-05-10 Sunday Plays

Putting the whole day and night up now to avoid any problems later:

ATL – ML ½
MILW – FF ½ only
NATS – ML ½
CINC – FF, ML, Alt RL ½
METS – FF, ML, Alt RL ½
HOU – FF ½, ML
COLO – ML, RL, Alt RL ½
TOR – FF, ML, Alt RL ½
WSOX – FF, ML, AltRL
TB – FF, ML, RL
MINN – ML, RL ½
SF – ML, RL, AltRL

Have a great day.

[BeatingBaseball]

Sunday Results

Sunday was a great day at the office - action on 12 games - 9 of them winners.

7 of the 9 winners were underdogs and 5 of those cashed big + money AltRLs as well.

Total plays went 19-8 for a pick up of 27.82 Units.

We wiped out more than 85% of the 2nd half deficit in one day.

Puts us right back in the game.

All this despite another costly loss vs our 2nd half nemesis Orioles.

[No coincidences]

Sunday was a great day at the office - action on 12 games - 9 of them winners.

7 of the 9 winners were underdogs and 5 of those cashed big + money AltRLs as well.

Total plays went 19-8 for a pick up of 27.82 Units.

We wiped out more than 85% of the 2nd half deficit in one day.

Puts us right back in the game.

All this despite another costly loss vs our 2nd half nemesis Orioles.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-06-10 Monday Plays

ATL – ML ½, RL ½
HOU – ML
SF – ML, RL ½
TOR – ML ½, RL ½
NYY – RL ½
WSOX – FF, ML, AltRL ½
MINN – ML, RL ½
LAA (HAREN) – FF only
SD – FF ½, ML

[BeatingBaseball]

Monday Results

On Monday our 16 plays across 9 games go 8-7-1 overall for another profitable day.

It all came down to the two late games where we pushed the Haren FF and picked up both bets on the Padres’ streak breaking home W over the Dodgers.

Bottom line on the day was a net gain of 2.91 Units.

We now stand at -1.48 Units for the 2nd half.

Starting to see light coming thru as we approach the surface.

The mighty Baltimore Orioles, by the way, got us once again. It was only for a single Unit this time as we had a ½ play on the Yankees RL – but a win on that play would have had us posting officially positive 2nd half today. Nothing, of course, could be more representative of our 2nd half than the Orioles spoiling the party once again. I’m beginning to think they may have sold their souls to the devil at the break. We would have had a very big 2nd half if we had just stayed away from them – let alone jumped on their bandwagon. If…the biggest word in the English language.

The frustrating thing about today is that truth be told we are actually solidly positive for the 2nd half right now - but because I failed to post that middle session on Saturday we are of course ignoring those significant positive results in the official thread record. The W-L and Unit tracking below does not reflect them and there's just no way to square it up (unless I screw up again and somehow fail to post a session that gets wiped out). I can only hope that in the end we are profitable enough to make it of far less significance. (Note to self - last time I am going to mention this - nobody wants to hear it.)

[BeatingBaseball]

9-07-10 Tuesday Plays

ATL – RL
METS – FF ½, ML ½
NYY – RL
TOR – FF ½, ML, RL ½
HOU - FF, ML, AltRL ½
TB – FF ½, ML, RL ½
MINN – ML ½, RL
SF – FF, ML, RL ½

[BeatingBaseball]

Tuesday Results

A great day on Tuesday with plays going 16-2.

The only losing plays were single RL-only plays on the Yankees and Braves.

METS, TOR, HOU, TB, MINN and SF swept all.

+20.56 Units on the day.

4th consecutive +money day.

Back in the green on 2nd half at +19.08 Units.

It feels so great to be back above water this half - that I'm not even cursing the Orioles today.

There's been nothing easy this year - especially this 2nd half - but we've managed to hang in. We're now at +36.51 Units on the season to date and looking to add to our firing power for the stretch and post season.

Also - a lesson in patience involving our recent comeback - although things were looking pretty dismal just a week ago, we've worked our way back to being well positioned once again - but note that we did it while cutting back to a lot of 1/2 plays and not making a single play above our standard 2 units. Unlike much of what you read on sites such as SBR, we play with real money on this thread - and if there's any one rule a gambler must learn in order to survive - it's not stepping up when you're runnin' bad. (Hopefully we later get to demonstrate the almost equally important corollary to the rule.)

Always remember that losing your patience is the hallmark of an amateur. If you're making +EV plays you will eventually have your run - but you can't make it happen - you have to let it come to you.

Good Luck to all.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-08-10 Wednesday - Early Play

NYY - RL only -1.24

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday - Night Plays

ATL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
HOU – FF, ML, AltRL ½
STL – FF ½, ML, RL ½
CINC – FF, ML, AltRL ½
SF – FF, ML, AltRL ½
WSOX – FF ½, ML, RL ½
TOR – FF ½, ML, RL ½
TB – FF, ML, RL ½
MINN – ML, RL ½

[jbofcb]

I know you realize this BB, but going against the Rox @ Coors Field is certainly a low % play, no matter who the opposition has on the mound. There is also a goofy stat that seems to keep playing out over the past seasons and this one is staying true to form...The NLWest seems to own the NLCentral. I understand not taking Cook (though he pitched his money pitch well tonight and kept the ball down...lots of Reds grounders, and another quality thing about Cook-good bunter, got two tonight and one led to a run). You know I'm a 'homer' here, but also talking practicle.
Hope to see you this weekend. Looks like we are @ The Wynn, but I may drive out a day early and spend a night on 'world class cuisine". We will talk....goodluck and go get em skip!

[BeatingBaseball]

Rox at Coors

I know you realize this BB, but going against the Rox @ Coors Field is certainly a low % play, no matter who the opposition has on the mound. There is also a goofy stat that seems to keep playing out over the past seasons and this one is staying true to form...The NLWest seems to own the NLCentral. I understand not taking Cook (though he pitched his money pitch well tonight and kept the ball down...lots of Reds grounders, and another quality thing about Cook-good bunter, got two tonight and one led to a run). You know I'm a 'homer' here, but also talking practicle.
Hope to see you this weekend. Looks like we are @ The Wynn, but I may drive out a day early and spend a night on 'world class cuisine". We will talk....goodluck and go get em skip!

JBone -

Since we're clearly engaged in some friendly ball busting here - I must point out your use of the past tense in referring to Cook's outing along with the fact that the 2nd sacrifice bunt to which you refer occurred in the bottom of the 5th. The score after 5 was 9-1 Rockies. Had I been privileged to make my assessment of the matchup at that point in the game, I believe my analysis would have been almost as astute as your own. But as I know you realize, the house rules here in Nevada require making one's assessment prior to the first pitch - a troublesome little requirement that puts me at somewhat of a disadvantage.

(This damn thing is supposed to say "Just Kidding")

But you're absolutely right. The Rockies have been on fire at Coors. My play was purely on the price and the resilience that the Reds have demonstrated all year in bouncing back after setbacks - plus Arroyo's great road performances against the fact that Cook was making only his 2nd start since coming off the DL. I figured my win expectation slightly less than 50-50, but at +1.14 my break even % was only 46.73% and I had two shots at it with the FF and ML plus at +1.80 the AltRL was only a 35.72% break even and at Coors the possibility of a 1 run decision - no matter who wins - is somewhat diminished.

Unfortunately for me Arroyo had one of his worst outings (the 3 bombs he gave up were a season high) and Cook pitched great.

Dusty B is famous for not letting superman beat him. He almost always pitches around the big bat. But this series has clearly demonstrated that with Tulo hitting behind CarGo - you're damned if you do and damned if you don't pitch to Gonzalez. If he doesn't get you - Tulo will.

Cook's injury was a really bad break for the Rox. It was an injurious night for me as well ($).

Hope Colorado is still able to make it interesting the next few weeks.

See you soon. We'll have to team up with Mike and engage/defeat a bottle of Jameson.

[jbofcb]

I can't beleive they don't allow you to past post. Damn!

Cook breaks a leg and yet they still haven't ruled out that he may start again this season.

I find it interesting how MLB players/"Experts" would slight CarGo because of his skewed home #'s vs road #'s (while both are impressive .394 @ Coors and .289 on road) as an excuse to not include him in MVP talk. I am SURE they won't use that same reasoning when looking at Jimenez's #'s @ Coors Field in regards to the Cy Young debate. This on top of the east coast bias of MLB makes for an insurmountable barrier. (see true Rockie of the Year Todd Helton losing to Kerry Woods, as well as, some other notable MVP exclusions in the past) Personally I believe you should look at what someone has done for their team and the game over the full 162 games without making excuses and over analysis. Makes me feeling like burning a Koran! (but I won't)

Anyways, You, Me and Dupree (aka Mike the...) imbibing over "a wee bit 'o the holy water" sounds inviting enough! JBofCB

ps...JB likes the Braves today, but it aint no

[BeatingBaseball]

Wednesday Results

After a 4 day run we hit the wall hard yesterday.

We had a ton of action out there across 10 games on the day.

Only 3 games (7 plays) were profitable – wiping out our gains from Tuesday.

On the day we drop 22.76 Units - back under water for the 2nd half.

It’s real easy to second guess a day like this and question why we didn’t sit on our lead for at least a day. Armchair QBs have a great shot here and a lot of guys who did what I did yesterday would waste a lot of time beating themselves up for it. But for me – no regrets. I would (read will) do it again in the same situation.

I have found that slowing down on a streak and consolidating your gains – especially when it is not a day that starts new series matchups – will cost you in the long run. You slow down when you’re running bad - not when running good. The obvious caveat here is that you have to be ready to pull back once again if the streak proves a head fake. A day like yesterday is frustrating - but putting it out there in that spot is what works in this business long term. A big follow up off a big plus day in a 4 day winning streak in the middle of the series sets does not often pan out like yesterday. When it does, however, you have to be able to handle the disappointment and not go on tilt.

The 2nd guessers and armchair QBs may not have pushed it as hard as I did last night - but they’ve never had the runs I’ve had in my life either. And they never will. You play to put it out there when the time feels right. You earn your free shots and you take them. In a case like this you turn the page and get back to earning another one. You can never be afraid to win.

[BeatingBaseball]

9-09-10 Thursday - Early Plays

CINC – FF, ML, RL ½
WSOX - FF ½, ML



CINC
JBs comments notwithstanding - taking a mulligan on the Reds play from last night.
This time it’s at +1.25 (Implied Win Expectation 44.5%) and +1.90 AltRL (34.5% Break Even here).
Even though the Rocks are streaking, have won 30/L40 at Coors and CINC hasn’t won there in 2 yrs - this year’s Reds have consistently shown they can play better than .450 ball in spots like this.
Even though Hammel has pitched well and is having his best year – Wood has as well and had 7 great innings in a 5-1 W at STL on Saturday.
Also may be a little letdown on the home side today re the Cook injury.
As always, it’s all about the price.

WSOX
Floyd 5-0 with a 3.20 vs Detroit career overall and off a nice 3-1 W at BOS on Saturday.
Porcello 0-4 vs WSOX career overall - 3 of those losses were at home.
KC got Porcello for 4 runs on Saturday - plus Cabrera is doubtful with shoulder tendonitis.
This is a very big ballgame for Chicago. For Detroit – not so much.

[BeatingBaseball]

Thursday - Night Plays

atl – ff ½, ml, rl ½
tor – ff ½, ml, rl ½
hou – ff, ml
sf – ff, ml, rl ½

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Just checking in. Will be in Vegas on October 14-17, my buddies 50th birthday. Hope all is well.