The Official Stingyrivers No Home Sweep Chase Picks Thread 2010

[sapidoc]

Sapidoc, u do great work! i'm lookin forward to following u. where the hell is stingy, i have bail money. one question-why didnt u play detroit? just wonderin. keep up the great work.

DET is not a "non-home-sweep" team. And Cleveland is not a "fade-away-games" team. This is not a system play for either team, therefore I did not play that game.

Remember, Stingy did say there would be some good hand-picked series that he may add. I chose not to, but you could have played this series at your own accord.

[IWinMyBets]

Bet against Cleveland on the road, that is why

Thanks for the Reply. Appreciate it. Good Luck to all.

[sapidoc]

Not sure why people think betting against Cleveland on the road is part of this system.

REGULAR SEASON

May, 2008

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/23455-indians-sweep-as-pitching-stays-hot

August, 2006

http://www.flickr.com/photos/laffy4k/214726033/

SEPTEMBER FORWARD

September, 2009

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/27/AR2009092702023.html

[reverend]

DET is not a "non-home-sweep" team. And Cleveland is not a "fade-away-games" team. This is not a system play for either team, therefore I did not play that game.

Remember, Stingy did say there would be some good hand-picked series that he may add. I chose not to, but you could have played this series at your own accord.

I have to disagree. I think Cleveland is for sure a "fade away" team. They will easily be in the bottom 6 teams this year. Their pitching staff is brutal. Now if Carmona has a huge first month or 2, he may be a guy to stay away from...but Jake Westbrook as an ace? That is a joke!

Detroit is on the border of a "home team play". They are around the 6-8 range for me.

But I will be fading Cleveland on every away series.

[sapidoc]

I have to disagree. I think Cleveland is for sure a "fade away" team. They will easily be in the bottom 6 teams this year. Their pitching staff is brutal. Now if Carmona has a huge first month or 2, he may be a guy to stay away from...but Jake Westbrook as an ace? That is a joke!

Detroit is on the border of a "home team play". They are around the 6-8 range for me.

But I will be fading Cleveland on every away series.

I'm only continuing the work that stingy started. I haven't done the back-testing myself, but he spent a lot of time back-testing the system over previous seasons and the results of that back-testing did not condone fading CLE on away series. It may very well happen this year, but it is not part of the system stingy designed.

This decision to omit them in my post was purely based on the results of what stingy found. My opinion is not for nor against fading CLE this season.

While you may disagree with what the system chooses to avoid this season, and go outside of it; you would be incorrect to say that fading CLE was ever part of what was determined earlier by stingy and how the system would play them this year.

Feel free to put the picks in your own thread, but this is stingy's system thread and will remain as such. The only way I would start posting "fade CLE" this season is if stingy comes back and says it should be done.

Good luck to you this season.

[khaden]

Spadic,,

Thanks for keeping up the system and maintaining "system integrity" I agree with I think we should use another thread to discuss plays that we like that fall outside of Stingy's system and use this thread strictly to post the plays that he developed.

[Sawyer]

Results:

GAME (A) BET - Colorado Rockies
GAME (A) BET - New York Mets
GAME (A) BET - Arizona D-Backs
GAME (A) BET - LAA Angels


Today's Bets

GAME (B) BET - LAA Angels

Remember to chase this B bet to include the loess you took on the Angel's yesterday + 1 unit.

I said angels won't get swept easily at home by "lowly" oaklands. sorry for that! Well, I must admit that angels suck! if they cant win this one they may get swept at home because oakland will have dallas braden on the mound sunday. -160 for shitty angels, yuck!. gl!

[sapidoc]

I said angels won't get swept easily at home by "lowly" oaklands. sorry for that! Well, I must admit that angels suck! if they cant win this one they may get swept at home because oakland will have dallas braden on the mound sunday. -160 for shitty angels, yuck!. gl!

Yes, I'm definitely hoping that tonight this series ends with a WIN for LAA.

Checking up with ESPN:

1) The A's are 4-1 for the first time since 2004.
2) Conversely, the 1-4 Angels are staring at their worst getaway in 18 years in the wake of their worst back-to-back games in five years.
3) The one-sided A's-Angels affair was extremely rare. Of the prior 75 games between the division rivals, 42 have been decided by two or fewer runs, 24 of them by one run.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2010_04_10_oakmlb_anamlb_1&mode=preview

FYI guys: As Sawyer pointed out they are -160 right now. If you got them when I made my post this morning, you would have paid -144.

[TheCommish]

Well, the Angels definitely have the better pitcher on the mound today. Hope it hits for you.

[Kelloggs]

What are the off. teams to follow and fade ?

I looked in the other thread but it is pretty hard to find due to spam from DeHoyos.

[jaxjonesdrew32]

geez i hope the angels win today. i'm also chasing the red sox on the road against the royals.

[mncosoldier]

Im on LAA

[dyeguy]

You have to remember that the top 5 and bottom 5 teams do not stay the same based on how they did last season. Nor would you keep the same teams all season long if they don't belong in the top or bottom 5. Right now we are trying to figure out who those teams are. If Cleveland ends up being a bottom 5 team then they get faded according to how Stingy's system was laid out. Right now they are looking like a bottom 5 as is Houston which I don't think were in Stingy's original bottom 5.

[sapidoc]

I think he based the top5 and bottom5 teams this season based on the entire last 3 seasons if I remember correctly.

Only those that matched his criteria for all 3 previous seasons made the list this season.

If you went back 5 seasons, I think he said there were sweeps. You can check the earlier threads for that discussion.

If CLE ends up being a future bottom 5 this season, there's no way to know that within the first week. I would suggest waiting for a handful of games before you start deciding to fade these teams. Trying to "figure it out" is one thing, but blatantly posting "I'm fading CLE all season because they suck" is another. I think it was suggested by someone that the first two weeks you use a 'smaller' unit size to evaluate things, and then go all out on the system after that. Stingy actually looked like he was going all out from day 1 from his first post.

I'm definitely down for evaluating things as we go. I mean if the Angels get swept this series, its going to change a lot. But then again, the system wasn't really in 'full effect' until a week from now. I'm looking for as much input as possible, but at the same time, trying to keep the spirit of what stingy left us with.

Unfortunately stingy is no where to be found, and the criteria for officially adding or removing a team from the 'no home series sweet system' was not really discussed in the earlier threads. Only that certain "hand-picked" series would be used (and minimized) this season. I'm definitely open to suggestions from everyone, but so far I've been hearing the majority asking me to stick to what stingy had setup and that's what I'm trying to do for now.

We'll evaluate things as they develop.

[allison13]

The Angels made that game exciting

[justchecking]

Is there a website where you can find series coming up or do you have to individually?

[IWinMyBets]

"

[SkivChef]

Who pissed stingy off?

[justchecking]

Thank you

[sapidoc]

Results:

GAME (B) BET - LAA Angels

Right on track.

For those that were following stingy on his 'risk it all' "bankroll management" scheme, you would be upping your unit size for the next pick going forward.

g/l

[sndbarrier1]

Thanks for stepping up man

[sapidoc]

(A) bet - KC (fade)
(A) bet - WAS (fade)
(A) bet - HOU (fade)
(A) bet - PITT (fade)

[justchecking]

We play against these teams tomorrow correct ?

[Sawyer]

Cards at home (versus Astros) looks like easy money. Juice will be scary though..

Also chasin' Yanks at home vs Angels sounds good either. Angels bullpen sucks..

[sapidoc]

We play against these teams tomorrow correct ?

We only bet on home teams with this system, yes.

[reverend]

I'm only continuing the work that stingy started. I haven't done the back-testing myself, but he spent a lot of time back-testing the system over previous seasons and the results of that back-testing did not condone fading CLE on away series. It may very well happen this year, but it is not part of the system stingy designed.

This decision to omit them in my post was purely based on the results of what stingy found. My opinion is not for nor against fading CLE this season.

While you may disagree with what the system chooses to avoid this season, and go outside of it; you would be incorrect to say that fading CLE was ever part of what was determined earlier by stingy and how the system would play them this year.

Feel free to put the picks in your own thread, but this is stingy's system thread and will remain as such. The only way I would start posting "fade CLE" this season is if stingy comes back and says it should be done.

Good luck to you this season.

sapidoc,

i completely understand what you are saying. stingy and i collaborated on this material for many hours before the season. and like you said, the beauty/curse of this system is having to decide mid-steam who the top and bottom teams are. I will not be making picks in this thread, as I am doing that in my linked thread below.

after all the work stingy and i did, we decided that there are many more great opportunities to pick up series wins outside of the top few teams. so in my thread, i am playing outside of these narrow parameters in hopes of picking up more series wins and being able to be a bit more aggressive.

but at the end of the day, we are playing the same type system and rooting for each other. i look forward to yalls feedback and input throughout the year! lets all get to 100-0 and make some money this season!

[reverend]

(A) bet - KC (fade)
(A) bet - WAS (fade)
(A) bet - HOU (fade)
(A) bet - PITT (fade)

spot on!

lets get these 4 series over tomorrow with 4 winners!

[do5000]

(A) bet - KC (fade)
(A) bet - WAS (fade)
(A) bet - HOU (fade)
(A) bet - PITT (fade)

I am going to consider playing MIN today, especially because they are + money.
but i understand that it may not be part of the original system.

[sapidoc]

I am going to consider playing MIN today, especially because they are + money.
but i understand that it may not be part of the original system.

.....

[khaden]

I like the play on the Twins--they are playing well and I think it is worth adding them in this week--as are the Braves like Rev pointed out. IMO there is alot of flexibility with this--and if you have to (hopefully you wont) you could just chase past the 3 games.

[sapidoc]

I like the play on the Twins--they are playing well and I think it is worth adding them in this week--as are the Braves like Rev pointed out. IMO there is alot of flexibility with this--and if you have to (hopefully you wont) you could just chase past the 3 games.

-260 $26.00 $10.00
-260 $93.60 $36.00
-260 $336.96 $129.60
-260 $1,213.06 $466.56

You could chase 4 games on the low-juice series perhaps, but this is bankroll dependent and depends on the number of ongoing series you have. For example, WAS fade is like -260 right now. Your fourth chase costs you $1213.06 for a $10 unit. If you lost this, you would have total loses of $1669.62

Being more realistic:

-150 $15.00 $10.00
-150 $37.50 $25.00
-150 $93.75 $62.50
-150 $234.38 $156.25

At -150 you would need to make a 4th game chase for $234.38 and accumulate total losses of $380.63 for that series if it lost.

That means you would have knocked out just over 38 winning-series worth of profit assuming you are using constant units.

Just make sure you realize your potential risk/loss amounts if the series you plan to play goes sour and have a proper bankroll to accommodate it.

[jaxjonesdrew32]

come on tigers

[Cosmo213]

Congrats Royals backers.

[sapidoc]

Congrats Royals backers.

Oh, you're one of those.

[Cosmo213]

Not really, I see it as an inside joke of this forum thanks to that Diesel guy.