The Official Stingyrivers No Home Sweep Chase Picks Thread 2010

sapidoc · 04-12-10, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Cosmo213

Not really, I see it as an inside joke of this forum thanks to that Diesel guy.

Cosmo213 · 04-12-10, 02:21 PM

And it's kind of a reverse-jinx thing. Detroit's scored 2 runs since my post!

sapidoc · 04-12-10, 04:11 PM

Results (so far)

(A) Bet - DET (fading KC)

Tomorrow's Games (so far)

(A) Bet - NYY
(A) Bet - LAD
(B) Bet - DET (fading KC)

sapidoc · 04-12-10, 10:36 PM

Results

(A) Bet - DET (fading KC) - LOSS
(A) bet - WAS (fade) - WIN
(A) bet - HOU (fade) - WIN
(A) bet - PIT (fade) - PENDING (5-1)

Tomorrow's Games

(A) Bet - NYY
(A) Bet - LAD
(B) Bet - DET (fading KC)

Guys, as posted earlier there are two new chase series starting and we are on a game B chase for the DET series. SF is up on PIT (5-1) as I write this, let's hope that comes in as a win tonight as well, otherwise that will be a Game B for tomorrow. Thanks for the points guys, very appreciated!

Good Luck To Everyone!

khaden · 04-12-10, 10:47 PM

nice job--you and Rev are keeping this together! If people following the system and maintain good discipline and mm we should have a nice year--both threads are very positive. Nice work guys.--also add in G's conservative approach and we should be dancin by Labor Day.

justchecking · 04-13-10, 08:08 AM

Good Job, thanks for keeping this system going
Steve

quote=sapidoc;4058525]Results

(A) Bet - DET (fading KC) - LOSS
(A) bet - WAS (fade) - WIN
(A) bet - HOU (fade) - WIN
(A) bet - PIT (fade) - PENDING (5-1)

Tomorrow's Games

(A) Bet - NYY
(A) Bet - LAD
(B) Bet - DET (fading KC)

Guys, as posted earlier there are two new chase series starting and we are on a game B chase for the DET series. SF is up on PIT (5-1) as I write this, let's hope that comes in as a win tonight as well, otherwise that will be a Game B for tomorrow. Thanks for the points guys, very appreciated!

Good Luck To Everyone![/quote]

justchecking · 04-13-10, 08:09 AM

Thanks for keeping this system going.

jaxjonesdrew32 · 04-13-10, 01:48 PM

the tigers are going to get swept. im glad i gave on them after game 1

sapidoc · 04-13-10, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by jaxjonesdrew32

the tigers are going to get swept. im glad i gave on them after game 1

You mean KC is going to sweep! Remember the reason for this series is because KC is weak on the road and did not sweep well. Perhaps not this season!

spankadank · 04-13-10, 03:45 PM

Way to go Tigers!!!! I wasn't feeling that good about a Detroit C play.

G's pks · 04-13-10, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

You mean KC is going to sweep! Remember the reason for this series is because KC is weak on the road and did not sweep well. Perhaps not this season!

If you are going to take this thread over...you of all people may want to wait till game is over

For those of us with past experience with these systems we know better...wait till the games are over...

Good work taking it over..if you need any help I have run a successful chase for over a year recently and ran one years ago also GL.

G's pks · 04-13-10, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by jaxjonesdrew32

the tigers are going to get swept. im glad i gave on them after game 1

If you read my thread at all one of the main ingredients is discipline....you have to follow system EXACTLY.

sapidoc · 04-13-10, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

If you are going to take this thread over...you of all people may want to wait till game is over

For those of us with past experience with these systems we know better...wait till the games are over...

Good work taking it over..if you need any help I have run a successful chase for over a year recently and ran one years ago also GL.

I was correcting his statement, not saying one way or the other. Believe me, I know its not over til its over.

khaden · 04-13-10, 04:12 PM

Exactly

Originally posted by G's pks

If you read my thread at all one of the main ingredients is discipline....you have to follow system EXACTLY.

Not everyone has the stomach for this--but G is dead on with this--you have to follow through all the way with this or it wont work. You can't bail out after a losing A bet. Rev, Stingy, and G have studied this shit for countless hours and going back several years to come up with these stats. Just ride it out and stick with it.

G's pks · 04-13-10, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by khaden

Not everyone has the stomach for this--but G is dead on with this--you have to follow through all the way with this or it wont work. You can't bail out after a losing A bet. Rev, Stingy, and G have studied this shit for countless hours and going back several years to come up with these stats. Just ride it out and stick with it.

thank you..

Discipline
Follow exactly
Be prepared to lose once in a while
Do not stray
Wait till games end
Nothing fancy
Hammer it all year

G's pks · 04-13-10, 04:21 PM

This is nothing new guys...several threads like this across forums... I ran a chase over twenty years ago with fifteen guys quietly cleaning up... Here at least three of us doing one with threads...more doing it not talking about it... Several over at Covers as well...continued good luck boys..its a long season...take it slow.

sapidoc · 04-13-10, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

If you read my thread at all one of the main ingredients is discipline....you have to follow system EXACTLY.

Its true. Obviously he has chosen not to follow the system and that's up to him.

One thing I find is that is hard to rationalize is that people have these "systems", but really all they are, are betting patterns (usually variations of martingale). To me personally, a system not only tells you how you should bet, but also what games you should bet. And those games are chosen based on a strict set of criteria and conditions laid out before the season starts.

There can definitely be exceptions (ie. top 8 starting pitchers for NYY go on the injured list because of a bus accident or something) but for the most part a smart individual could follow a well-designed system by themselves and know the plays ahead of time. If that's not possible, then I consider it to be less of a system and more of a betting pattern to use on someone else's picks.

This just reiterates the importance of following the system EXACTLY (as G put it), because I fully agree with him on that.

(This is not directed towards any system or person in particular, just some food for thought.)

G's pks · 04-13-10, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

Its true. Obviously he has chosen not to follow the system and that's up to him.

One thing I find is that is hard to rationalize is that people have these "systems", but really all they are, are betting patterns (usually variations of martingale). To me personally, a system not only tells you how you should bet, but also what games you should bet. And those games are chosen based on a strict set of criteria and conditions laid out before the season starts.

There can definitely be exceptions (ie. top 8 starting pitchers for NYY go on the injured list because of a bus accident or something) but for the most part a smart individual could follow a well-designed system by themselves and know the plays ahead of time. If that's not possible, then I consider it to be less of a system and more of a betting pattern to use on someone else's picks.

This just reiterates the importance of following the system EXACTLY (as G put it), because I fully agree with him on that.

(This is not directed towards any system or person in particular, just some food for thought.)

Great points but you do not want people clogging up your thread if you are running it... Seems like you have it down... I see Reverend, yours and mine will often vary slightly...we will have some losses...but will need to play through it... If you look through my thread from last year...(linked under my thread this year) you will see how the Phillies getting swept in a four game series at home crushed quite a few people. Stay balanced guys...be in it for the long run...the pressure on us when a bet goes to "B" or "C" is there but know in the long haul you should be fine. Use money management that suits you...you do not have to double every bet or bet a unit.

I backlogged four years of data and update in the winter... I go through everything from head to head, pitching match ups and just about every stat in between...but nothing is perfect...anyone that just things they will never have losses at all will be in trouble. GL guys..

sapidoc · 04-13-10, 07:10 PM

Today's Games

(A) Bet - NYY -WIN
(A) Bet - LAD -WIN
(B) Bet - DET (fading KC) -WIN

Good Day today guys. Looks like our next play won't be until Friday's games come out.

jaxjonesdrew32 · 04-13-10, 07:18 PM

good job guys. the only system play i went with today was the yankees. i just didnt feel comfortable with the tigers and the dodgers at this point of the season, but i'm reading the thread everyday and taking suggestions! keep it up!

G's pks · 04-13-10, 07:18 PM

One new series Balt at Oak starts thursday...might be worth a look after their series end tomorrow.

khaden · 04-13-10, 07:36 PM

hang in there jax--the thing I really like about this thread is everyone for the most part has been positive---follow what G and Rev, and now that stingy is back Sapidoc is picking up the slack. If you don't fell comfortable maybe cut back on your unit size for now so your not as nervous laying some of the extra cash on the B and C bet. I dont know your situation or unit size so Im just throwing that out there as suggestion. This is my first year betting a chase system, and regularly betting baseball so Im literally following these guys 100%. I couldnt wait for baseball to start after reading these threads for the last few weeks.

Mojje · 04-14-10, 10:58 AM

How does everybody in here handle a serie when you get a game cancelled when the wrong pitcher starts? If this happends in an [A]-bet you could just stop there but if you are at [B] or [C] its not that obvious what to do. Or do you allways play "action" and dont care what pitcher starts?

reverend · 04-14-10, 11:26 AM

good job yesterday

sapidoc · 04-14-10, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by Mojje

How does everybody in here handle a serie when you get a game cancelled when the wrong pitcher starts? If this happends in an [A]-bet you could just stop there but if you are at [b] or [C] its not that obvious what to do. Or do you allways play "action" and dont care what pitcher starts?

If I remember correctly, the system worked on the historical data for its calculations without looking to see if the pitcher got changed or remained the same. There was no omitting games that had a pitching change between opening line and game starting.

That being said, you could probably ignore that altogether and that would be following the system as designed. If you liked a particular Game-A match-up and wanted to lock in the pitchers, then you would have to void the series if that got canceled due to a pitching change. (And you would possibly play less series this season than the system would pull).

I can't remember what was decided if the game got canceled at the moment, I will look at it when I get home unless someone else cares to beforehand. If it was a Game-A its easy to void the series, but game-B and -C would mean we miss a chase and need to make that up or something I'd imagine...

khaden · 04-15-10, 09:35 AM

All new series are in the bag so far this week-with one new one starting today with the A's playing Balt. Nice work.

denn333 · 04-15-10, 10:35 AM

nice work..

G's pks · 04-15-10, 11:23 AM

guys keep this thread rolling! If someone drops the ball...someone stay with it and give it a shot...Balt at Oak starts tonight...I have a few interesting comments and stats in my thread... GL boys...

sapidoc · 04-15-10, 11:29 AM

Love the OAK game tonight as well, but that series is not part of this system. We are not fading BAL or chasing OAK this season.

Grosshhit · 04-15-10, 11:30 AM

I love this play tonight, the O's are in the bottom 5 this year.

sapidoc · 04-15-10, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by Kelloggs

What are the off. teams to follow and fade ?

I looked in the other thread but it is pretty hard to find due to spam from DeHoyos.

From Stingy

"all I can say is according to the rules of this system, if you made this series chase on Bos, NYY, LAA, LAD, CWS and TB at every home series last year, you were 114 - 0 and if you faded Pitt, Wash, KC, Hou, SD on the road last year you were 100 - 0"

G's pks · 04-15-10, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by sapidoc

Love the OAK game tonight as well, but that series is not part of this system. We are not fading BAL or chasing OAK this season.

Do you have a list of teams you do not chase and fade? Would like to see it. Also your reasoning backed by previous data to decide not to chase or fade certain teams.

G's pks · 04-15-10, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by sapidoc

From Stingy

"all I can say is according to the rules of this system, if you made this series chase on Bos, NYY, LAA, LAD, CWS and TB at every home series last year, you were 114 - 0 and if you faded Pitt, Wash, KC, Hou, SD on the road last year you were 100 - 0"

Make sure everyone understands this is all based on the system not going into Sept. which mine does not either because some of the listed teams were swept in Sept. but great idea...looks like a winner!

floridagolfer · 04-15-10, 11:36 AM

I won't pretend to know how this series is going to shake out, but the Orioles were just god-awful against Tampa. The best thing they did was get on a plane and leave town.

G's pks · 04-15-10, 11:37 AM

KC almost swept Detroit this year already...played them tough taking 2 of 3. Looks like some nice choices though and limits your picks which is nice too.