The Official Stingyrivers No Home Sweep Chase Picks Thread 2010

[sapidoc]

Do you have a list of teams you do not chase and fade? Would like to see it. Also your reasoning backed by previous data to decide not to chase or fade certain teams.

There were some very long threads dedicated to this discussion already. I'm not providing data in this thread because this is the picks thread. Here is all the information you need.

What started it all thread!:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/166494-system-integrity.html

The Thread that stingy built:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/414191-new-no-home-series-sweep-thread.html

The Picks (you are here!):

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/419193-official-stingyrivers-no-home-sweep-chase-picks-thread-2010-a.html

Its getting increasingly annoying to continually post information which has been discussed, etc. Not the fault of anyone, because I can see how this is confusing the way stingy laid it out. I mean the first post in this thread doesn't even tell you the teams.

I may very soon just make my own thread with a superb Post #1 describing everything and linking everything in detail so that people can just go to Post #1 as a reference.

I'll post in here first if I decide to move over to another thread.

[G's pks]

I won't pretend to know how this series is going to shake out, but the Orioles were just god-awful against Tampa. The best thing they did was get on a plane and leave town.

Yes well you guys are not playing it in here. You can check my thread for some interesting stats on the series and also the Reverend has it listed in his...do not want to clog up this thread with a series that does not qualify because of the teams which I think is also a great idea!

[thebestthereis]

oakland will not get swept and either will the orioles. i am playing a combination of no sweep series such as taking the angels (and good road teams) not to get swept in certain series, like vs NY. this will almost never happen and the key is getting dog money. the orioles will be getting dog money vs oak and they will not get swept. look at each series and look for the best odds so you are not laying -160, -180 in every game. remember most matchups are 50/50 even if the line doesn't seem so. it is just the way it is. i am using a running bankroll and am all in on each series as the season progresses so i ONLY bet one series until it ends, then i move on. start with $1000 if it loses oh well, if not to da bank.

[G's pks]

I think you could just make that thread/post in here...and just refer everyone back to it...that would work also by bolding the post and just saying see post #200 or whatever number it is. Also I am familar with the system integrity and other threads. I remember when it was started and remember commenting in there offering a little help..(post #48).

[sapidoc]

oakland will not get swept and either will the orioles.

Then why not put your life savings and borrow as much as you can from everyone you know and put it all on the series?

remember most matchups are 50/50 even if the line doesn't seem so.

False. But if this was right, maybe not a good idea to use your life savings on 3 coin flips after all.

i am using a running bankroll and am all in on each series as the season progresses so i ONLY bet one series until it ends, then i move on.

And remember everyone, this has nothing to do with this thread, or this system at all.

[G's pks]

last year I think I added a thread bolded with the exact rules after 400 posts so it is never to late....once you do that you could refer everyone to that.

[thebestthereis]

you don't know a thing about baseball, most games (over 70%) are roughly 50/50; i am not talking about -250 favorites. if you don't so think why don't you borrow money and bet every favorite everyday then run away once the people come looking for your money. i wasn't trying to be a smart ass, only add some insight to this system as another angle. what i stated is not this system and i never said it was.

[sapidoc]

last year I think I added a thread bolded with the exact rules after 400 posts so it is never to late....once you do that you could refer everyone to that.

Its a good idea. When I get home and have some time tonight I will start making that.

[G's pks]

Sapidoc I was looking through my thread from last year and yes I linked everything in one thread around post #427...might not be exact number ...but much easier once you do that you can just say see post # whatever and maybe label your rules with numbers and you could just say see post # whatever ##1, 2 3 or what it happens to be.

[G's pks]

thebestthereis... I do not think he meant to get on you...it is just frustrating when someone puts in something different from the rules...which as he said he will clearly, boldly print in a post for everyone to refer to...no use arguing with him back and forth...nothing wrong with a dog system just not what he is doing here..good luck with your ideas and plays...

[sapidoc]

you don't know a thing about baseball

pretty blanket statement against someone who you don't know, and is trying to do a favor for the stingy fans here. Its like me saying you don't know a thing about math.

most games (over 70%) are roughly 50/50; i am not talking about -250 favorites. ... only add some insight to this system as another angle.

maybe you should look at the odds of the matchups we are playing in this thread. This has nothing to do with the system or any angle on it


The bookmakers are not going to go broke this season. I AGREE if you play -250's constantly then you will lose at a rate (ideally, in the bookmaker's eye) equal to the juice they have put on that game. But if you just play the underdogs, you will lose as well in the same fashion.

A good capper knows a lot of information and can properly set a fair "line" on any game. When the public loads up on their "favorite" team, the capper can take advantage of the change in odds and make a +EV bet. This is just one example of how to be successful in betting (the blanket statement we often hear is "go against the public").

The books don't make money when you lose a bet, they make money when you make a -EV bet. Hence following a good capper or capping games yourself without bias is a good way to learn and become good at this.

This system first caught my eye because even if we assumed we were playing series with 70/30 games throughout, (on the 70% to win side) we should statistically lose a 3-game series 2.7% of the time. And yet stingy back tested this over three years with a set of teams and came up with a "system" that actually resulted without a loss.

What surprised me is that the good home teams and crappy away teams would be the games with the HIGHEST juice on them due to the public believing exactly what we want to have happen. Yet, the system remained profitable over many many years.

Does this have to do with a team REALLY not wanting to get swept at home? Does that make things different than the assumed odds the bookmakers give us? I don't know, but its the reason I started following all of this and its the reason I'm helping to keep it going.

G has made some very good points in this thread. Discipline, consistency, focus, these are keys in following the system and being successful. That is what we are trying to do here.

All I'm asking is that random angles into the system or what other people are playing tonight (completely unrelated to this thread) stay out. Its not much to ask, but it makes me happy. Take the clutter elsewhere guys.

Those not following this system, I wish you the best of luck in your own season games this year. May you be rich and prosperous.

[sapidoc]

Friday's Games

(A) Bet - NYY
(A) Bet - BOS
(A) Bet - LAD
(A) Bet - CHC (fade HOU)
(A) Bet - MIN (fade KC)

Good luck guys.

[dvb02]

Good luck tomorrow Sapidoc. Hope you win them all on the A bet.

[mizzoujohn]

whoops delete please mods

[mizzoujohn]

Here is what I'm doing tomorrow... another option for everyone...

A - NYY (vs Tex)
A- PHI (vs. Fla)
A- STL (vs. Nym)
A- CHC (vs. Hou)

IF MIN loses to Grienke, I'll be playing MIN as a 2 game chase on Sat and Sun.
I'm playing all these A bets on the -1RL to cut down the chalk significantly. If the A bet pushes, that series is over for me. If the A bet loses, I'll play B and C bets on the moneyline. Of course, a win at any time ends the series.

Good luck, sapidoc, and anyone that tails either of us.
John

[venge]

Friday's Games

(A) Bet - NYY
(A) Bet - BOS
(A) Bet - LAD
(A) Bet - CHC (fade HOU)
(A) Bet - MIN (fade KC)

Good luck guys.

if not for the Boston delay... this could of been a monster parlay as well.

Thanks Sapidoc for keeping this thread up...

Is Boston a play for tomorrow?

[reverend]

season is rolling along beautifully

[do5000]

both my NYY and BOS bets were cancelled. since NYY won i'm, skipping that series and ill stay with BOS tonight.

[sapidoc]

Friday's Games

(A) Bet - NYY -WIN
(A) Bet - BOS -RAIN
(A) Bet - LAD -WIN
(A) Bet - CHC (fade HOU) -WIN
(A) Bet - MIN (fade KC) -WIN

Saturday's Games

(A) Bet - BOS

This is still an A-Game since its a reschedule and they still have a game on Sunday and Monday if we need to chase.

The other games completed enough innings to be decided on, they were counted as wins, so those series will end.

[justchecking]

Thank you

Friday's Games

(A) Bet - NYY -WIN
(A) Bet - BOS -RAIN
(A) Bet - LAD -WIN
(A) Bet - CHC (fade HOU) -WIN
(A) Bet - MIN (fade KC) -WIN

Saturday's Games

(A) Bet - BOS

This is still an A-Game since its a reschedule and they still have a game on Sunday and Monday if we need to chase.

The other games completed enough innings to be decided on, they were counted as wins, so those series will end.

[daneault23]

Friday's Games

(A) Bet - NYY -WIN
(A) Bet - BOS -RAIN
(A) Bet - LAD -WIN
(A) Bet - CHC (fade HOU) -WIN
(A) Bet - MIN (fade KC) -WIN

Saturday's Games

(A) Bet - BOS

This is still an A-Game since its a reschedule and they still have a game on Sunday and Monday if we need to chase.

The other games completed enough innings to be decided on, they were counted as wins, so those series will end.

So how do we bet on the Sox tonight?? The only game I see at 5Dimes is the scheduled game where Bucholz is pitching, it doesn't have the continuation of the rained out one from last night.. l

I know that the continuation game is before the scheduled one, but I only see the scheduled one.

[sapidoc]

So how do we bet on the Sox tonight?? The only game I see at 5Dimes is the scheduled game where Bucholz is pitching, it doesn't have the continuation of the rained out one from last night.. l

I know that the continuation game is before the scheduled one, but I only see the scheduled one.

They play a game today and on monday too. So it doesn't really matter because you can still chase to game-C if you needed.

Besides that they have lost everything against TB so far.... so you can just continue with today's game as a chase game as normal.

Saturday's Games

(A) Bet - BOS - LOST

Sunday's Games

(B) Bet - BOS

[khaden]

Lets go sox

[jaxjonesdrew32]

well i see stingyrivers posting in other threads...have you completely abandoned this one stingy?

[illfuuptn]

Nice job guys. You planned on going undefeated this year huh? Well you had a good run into the 3rd week of the season. Hear that stingy? Lick me. I was right and you were oh so WRONG. Bye now. I'm gonna go make real bets.

[spankadank]

no losses yet!!!

[sapidoc]

Nice job guys. You planned on going undefeated this year huh? Well you had a good run into the 3rd week of the season. Hear that stingy? Lick me. I was right and you were oh so WRONG. Bye now. I'm gonna go make real bets.

I'm so confused....

[spankadank]

Me too, what's wrong with this guy.

[illfuuptn]

Red Sox lost guys. Are you okay? I know a number you can call...

[spankadank]

I stopped the chase when my first bet was declared a push. Anyways there is still another game tomorrow for those who chose to play their B and C bets. FREAKIN TARD!!!

[waco66]

there is a c bet tomorrow...woooooooohoooooooo

[G's pks]

guys this is why someone needs to monitor these threads if they are running them... This is not my thread someone(anyone) can start hitting the red triangle in the top corner of each post they want deleted report them and the mods will slowly delete them...someone else I had to do this last year in my thread also...GL...

[G's pks]

spankadank mizzoujohn read above post GL...

[khaden]

..

guys this is why someone needs to monitor these threads if they are running them... This is not my thread someone(anyone) can start hitting the red triangle in the top corner of each post they want deleted report them and the mods will slowly delete them...someone else I had to do this last year in my thread also...GL...

Done!!

[waco66]

I have not followed this system at all but I have bet on Boston yesterday and today as just regular picks. Im thinking tomorrow I might follow along with this system and bet to make up half of what I lost over the weekend on Boston lol