glad the mods cleaned it up for you guys...much better without all the nonsense posts...
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For what it's worth I think Im going through with the C bet on the Sox on Monday. For me, I turned a nice profit this week and my new betting week starts on Mondays. If they can't turn things around with Lackey on the mound then when will they?Comment -
Sunday's Games
(B) Bet - BOS - LOST
Monday's Games
(C) Bet - BOS
(A) Bet - LAA
(A) Bet - TOR (fade KC)
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Shouldn't we be playing Seattle as an A bet also--Fade BaltimoreComment -
I talked about it before, how Baltimore (for whatever reason) did not pass stingy's backtesting. Some people however believe them to be in the bottom 5 this year and are including them in their systems. Feel free to play this series, but it is not part of this system.Comment -
i also, may play BAL.Comment -
lets go bostonComment -
Been playing it small, literally to win $2. And I will lose 32.69 on the Sox. And I didn't even bet the second game since it was only on the board for a short time and I missed it. Yikes.Comment -
Yeah. This one is gonna hurt.Comment -
As I said before, if you chase home teams versus good road teams (Rays 6-0 on the road) you won't make any money on the long run. In addition, don't chase cold teams either. Should be at least above .500 at home.Comment -
sapidoc, i think stingy was using those teams last year. The system needs to be updated to for the current year. Exp. Bal sucks and KC is hittin the snot out of the ball and the red sox are in shambles(for now).Comment -
posts 220 and 221...
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This post is meant to help those who have been following this thread:
Stingy and I worked on this system for lots of hours bouncing ideas and thoughts off each other before the season. We were on the same page about all of it. He has not been around lately, so I think it is dangerous for those of you in this thread to just read his ideas and thoughts and play out the system based on a strict set of rules...because you dont have him here to make tweaks and adjustments as needed. We had talked and agreed that this would be a fluid system over the year. But this thread has turned into a "play what was posted before the season" system. Thats dangerous guys!
With that said, I am playing a very similar system in my thread, but it is fluid. I know many in here probably played the Rays/Sox series and took a loss in that series. That should not have happened. We have over 200 quality series to play this season, so if a series does not pass through a few different filters I use, I wont play it. There's no need to play "questionable" series.
So I am not trying to take anything away from this thread at all! Please hear that.
But since we are all playing a similar system, I think it would be helpful to come together so we can allow this system to shape itself over the season and show us all a big profit come the end of August.
So if anyone is interested, you are welcome in my thread. It has been very positive with lots of quality dialogue so far this season. And as you can see in my signature, we are sitting at 30-0 (+38 Units) to start the season.Comment -
Also make sure you take a look at G's pks thread!
He is doing a great job and has a great approach to money managementComment -
Monday's Games
(C) Bet - BOS - LOST
Well guys, looks like we hit a home sweep against BOS. Its unfortunate, but Sawyer, G, reverend all make a very good points.
Not playing away teams > 50% on the road and not playing chase teams < 50% at home, don't play fade vs fade or chase vs chase... there are many many variations and rules that we could have used to make this system more robust.
But it was never my intention to create my own system sweep thread, simply to step up when no one else wanted to and keep the initial thread going with what was left behind.
However there are many threads going (reverend, G, etc...) that are using a similar betting approach with series, but taking a lot more into account and making additional checks and balances to ensure a higher chance of surviving the season. (See posts above). Personally I feel they stand a really good chance of making it through undefeated.
I encourage all of you to take a look there and follow one of those threads. I don't think the concrete approach that was started here is suitable (BOS just one example, but we squeezed by on some Game-B's that were won by only 1-run as well).
More analysis and research is needed on a daily basis to make this successful, and there are some great people on this forum providing such. I suggest you go take a look.
Good luck to everyone this season.
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O U T
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(I haven't looked at a baseball scoreboard in weeks so I promise I am not stalking this thread, but I heard Boston got swept last night so I had to chime in)
So how many people new to this system blindly followed stingy and lost a lot of money chasing that Boston home sweep. If you played it exactly the way its designed you lost about 30 units right? I am sure most of you thought that a phenomenal home team like Boston couldn't possibly be swept in 4 games? Hopefully someone in this thread paid attention to the MULTIPLE WARNINGS I gave you all before this disaster of a system even started.
And in case you are wondering, Yes, I am chiming in to play the "I told you so card". Stingy talked a big game and then disappeared, and I am sure a lot of newbies lost a lot of money.
And for the record I had a few side conversations with people like Reverend and others, and I am really not trying to hate on those guys. They are experienced bettors, understood the risks, and probably put in enough research to avoid this one. The reason I chimed in so many times early on is to warn the newbies that Stingy was blowing a lot of smoke and that this was extremely risky. We all know that people out there followed this series the whole way and lost a ton, which is exactly what I warned would happen. That is very unfortunate and I sincerely hope most people avoided it.Comment -
To answer your question about how many units you lost by following:
1. If you played it as designed you specifically had the option to use constant units or to use the maximum number of units per series (assuming Game-C chases). Let's look at both scenarios.
But first, it was stated that if you risked your entire bankroll every series, then one series could bust you on your way to stardom and stingy had accepted that his initial $200 investment may very well be gone if this happened. This was stated many times and stingy was fully prepared to lose $200 doing this experiment. Like you, I also hope anyone that followed him was prepared to lose their choice of bankroll using an 'all-or-nothing' risk plan.
That being said, if you did follow either bankroll/betting plan on this series you would not be down money. This is because we got lucky at the beginning of the season and won a ton of series before we had the BOS series loss.
To be exact:
a) using a constant unit size you would have won 22 series up to this point ($220 assuming $10 was your unit size). The night BOS lost, you would have won 2 more A-games, and lost the Boston Game-C chase for just under 13 units. Therefore you should have just over 11 units (~$110) of profit after the last day of betting. (Pinny for odds on the BOS chase were -127, -130, -166 respectively, since we were refunded the rained out game, that is how you get 13 units lost). Equal to about $128.88 if you used $10 units. ($220 + $20 - $128.88 = $111.12)
b) using an 'all-or-nothing' approach, risking the maximum possible while still being able to chase multiple series, you would be sitting with just over 3 "initial"-units of profit after BOS failed last night, and the other two A-Games came in. This is because you upped your unit size every 10 wins, therefore the ~13 units lost on the BOS chase were more valuable than the unit size you started with and started winning with, therefore they wiped out most of the 24 units in profit. (This is more complicated to express in a post due to the size changing, but if enough people are really interested I can post the spreadsheet and graph up to this point). It works out to about $32 in profit I think (Assuming $10 units to start), but would have to go back and check for an exact number.
Your statement about losing 30 units is flawed; I'm not sure how you arrived at this number at all. Even if you followed stingy's bankroll of $200, and then ignored everything posted from then on including the games you were told to play you could never lose more than 20 units since that was what you started with.
I've already made a 'closing off' post above and like I said there are other threads still going with chase systems that I recommend anyone interested to check out. Just wanted to set the facts straight with how this system came to a close.
Stingy's system did not lose anyone that followed it 30 units. I hope this clears things up. Thanks.Comment -
I am going to be brutally honest, I don't care enough to read your post.
My point this entire time has always been the same. First, people are going to lose money on this system, especially new bettors who fall for all of this crap and don't know any better. Second, you are spending a ton of your time trying to refine a method that is not going to make you money in the long run. If you are going to dedicate time to sportsbetting, there are countless other ways to be use your time more efficiently.
I stand by my initial entrance to this thread: You all have good intentions and I commend you for making an effort, but you are going to end up costing people a lot of money whether you realize it or not.Comment -
Anyone defending this thread: I am not trying to attack you personally. Do not take offense to it when I tell you that this is going to fail. I was once naive enough to try this exact same thing, and I learned the hard way that its a losing method.
Please don't take it personal, just stop blindly chasing ML favorites based on a few "filters" you have applied, and save yourself a lot of money.Comment -
Spar-
i used a system similar to this one last year betting against the Nats on the road and was very successful.Comment -
I know, that was kind of rude. But those two long paragraphs about units and methods and blah blah blah. The bottom line is a lot of people undoubtedly chased that Boston series doubling down on every game and lost a ton.
atwolfe, people will always have luck with systems like these from time to time. And I am sure you did some things that won last season. But if people were blindly chasing the Nationals road series then they lost a ton when the Nats swept the Reds in a 3 game series in Cincinnati last year and then swept the Braves in a 4 game series in Atlanta.
Take all the effort you are putting into blind chases, and make day to day selections based on stats, trends, matchups, etc. you will all be much better off in the long run.Comment -
My intention was not to confuse you. Here are the graphs:
Maybe your point is just that people lost a ton on the BOS chase (not lost overall). In that case, I think we are both in agreement. That's why this thread ended. It could have been a lot worse than this if it happened earlier in the season, but it was made very clear to everyone that you could lose your initial bankroll if this happened. Thankfully we had enough of a cushion to prevent this.
For sure! I think everyone can agree on this. And reverend and G are doing a great job in their threads paying more attention to these things with their chase systems. Check it out if interested! (But keep in mind, its gambling; don't risk what you are not willing to lose no matter how sure you are!)
Good luck to everyone this season!Comment -
Im back to blow a little more smoke....
SparJMU,
just about everything you said, and all your disclaimors and dangers, particularly, not betting blindly and with in the moment filters... were all discussed openly on this forum by the the original people hashing this system out... I can see how you may have missed all that given your exhibited tendency of selective reading, as well as chip on your shoulder...
nowhere on here did it say "play these 10 teams all year and you will get rich"... In fact based on the tinkering we all did preseason, I wasnt playing the chase on the Boston series... as I also notice in all the other related picks threads, all the people from the original discussions for the system also filtered out the Boston series for obvious reasons... The teams mentioned that were undefeated last year merely shows a starting point and that if you filter and select your series wisely, a perfect season doing this is possible, not definite, POSSIBLE... if you tell me it isnt possible... you know you are lying... I actually spent hours posting replies in these threads openly warning of the potential pitfalls... thanks for having the tunnel vision...
a side note... if people played the Boston series, it was a 3 game losing chase, not 4... the rainout made it impossible to get four bets in... Also, another concept considered was a D bet on game one of the following series when a sweep were to happen... if that was exercised, you didnt lose
TO ALL OTHERS:
important thing with sports betting... use your brain... you are all at least reasonably intelligent people, that is obvious based on the steps you are taking here as it is... but, dont blindly follow anyone, I dont care who it is, without at least filtering the info through your head and formulating your own opinion...
there are several undefeated thus far posters... rev for one, and at least one other, who are doing just that... taking the hard work we put in preseason, using their heads to evaluate in the moment when selecting plays, and they havent lost yet using this system... congratulations guys, nice work, keep it going....
read all of these threads... go back to the very beginning about two weeks before the season... tinker with it, but mostly, make it your own... I know all about the math, and the probabilities, I run them weekly, and I still stand by, with some good capping and selection, an undefeated season is possible...
Thanks for those who bothered to read this, rather than skip it just to fire insults and self gratifying comments...
SparJMU... how is that for smoke? Good luck with how you bet baseball this year, I mean that... just know that you are not the only person on here with a brain... and other should be allowed to exercise theirs how they choose and not how you dictate
Good Luck Everyone... if anyone has any questions about any of this or the origins of this and the work Rev and I as well as others put into this, just PM, I will definitely replyComment -
I like it Stingy. I admit I was a very selective reader when it comes to this thread. I recall there were multiple threads early on, and no one seemed to care about the fact that this was a completely unoriginal idea and has failed countless times before. So I read a little, wrote a little, and moved on.
At no point in time did I ever say a perfect season was impossible, therefore I never lied. My warning has always been the same, in the long run, this will fail. Sure it's possible over any short term span, but as any experienced bettor knows, chases will lose, its only a matter of when.
You acknowledge "pitfalls" so I think you and I are on the same page as far as risks and rewards. The only place we differ is in the fact that this type of venture isn't even worth attempting. If there has to be a disclaimer that you can potentially lose your entire bankroll trying a system, that alone should tell any reasonable person that they need to walk away fast. Yet you guys kept going anyway.
Finally, I agree everyone should exercise their brain. But when they come up with something that they believe to be an original thought, those people should also listen to those with more experience. I always commend people for thinking, but will be quick to tell them when they need to direct their attention elsewhere. I am amazingly far from perfect as a bettor, and I come up with a ton of really shitty ideas that don't pan out. I appreciate it anytime someone with more experience warns me in advance that I need to reconsider what I am doing. I actually thought people would appreciate the warnings.Comment
