Nice calls EP 
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Good post on the under Astro EP.
thnks
BOLComment -
CURVEBALL
Braves -125. Uncle Charlie told me not to leave winners off the board, so we'll try to bend this one in a for a win. Tim Hudson vs. Mat Latos. True, Latos shut down Atlanta twice last season, but as with many of the Braves games later in the season they were not fielding a complete lineup. I do expect a pitcher's duel more or less, but I'll side with the experience of Tim Hudson. The Braves have won 11 of the last 15 meetings in San Diego. They have also won the road series each of the past three years. A win today would accomplish that for the fourth straight season. Coincidence or not, they won the 3rd game of each of those series as well. Break it off Charles and bring home the cash.
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UPDATED
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Fastball: 5-3-1 [+3.60]
Forkball: 4-4-1 [-0.57]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 16-10-2 [+5.70]
Can't get that Forkball to work much right now. Chalking that as a loss as I don't see 8 runs in the last couple innings between the Nationals and Phillies.
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Thanks a million EP. I cashed the Under in the Astros game. I never thought of that play until I saw it in your beautiful thread.Comment -
Just happy that people play the winners and not the losers.
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Well holy hell, never underestimate the bullpens. Forkball just cashed in the 9th!
UPDATED
Fastball: 5-3-1 [+3.60]
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Forkball: 5-3-1 [+1.58]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 17-9-2 [+7.85]Comment -
CURVEBALL
To Dodger Stadium we go as the Diamondbacks and Dodgers do battle. This one though is all about Dan Haren and the O/U set at 7. I think the common perception about Haren is that runs are hard to come by in his starts. Not so. In his two years with Arizona, 47 of his 66 starts have found totals of 7 runs or better. That's 71% of the time that tonight's total either earns a push or wins. On the road, 25 of his 33 starts in the last two years have hit totals of 7 or better. That's 76%. Haren is also 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA in 4 career starts vs. LA. Three have come with the Diamondbacks with game totals landing at 11, 7 & 11. Most of the Dodger regulars hit Haren pretty well with Manny really pounding him for a .577 avg. Kuroda has been pretty solid against Arizona with a 3.90 ERA. Both bullpens have been iffy at times, so that could help as well. All in all, worst result according to Uncle Charlie is a push - but Chuckles thinks we just might pound the strike zone on the corner to kill the books one more time. OVER at 7 [-110].
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Reworked the tally because I think I screwed up the count somewhere. Should be accurate.
UPDATED
Fastball: 6-2-1 [+3.60]
Curveball: 6-3 [+2.67]
Forkball: 5-3-1 [+1.58]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 18-9-2 [+7.85]
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UPDATED
Fastball: 6-2-1 [+3.60]
Curveball: 7-3 [+3.67]
Forkball: 5-3-1 [+1.58]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 19-9-2 [+8.85]Comment -
FRIDAY, APRIL 16th
FASTBALL
Sittin' Dead Red on the Nationals total again today as they host the Brewers. Winds expected to be blowing out pretty stiffly toward LCF-CF this evening. Not always a precursor for runs, but with this Nationals pitching staff - it's additional gasoline mixed with napalm. Gallardo vs. Lannan pitching wise. Gallardo has good #s vs. WAS, but has been average through 2 starts this season. He's yielded 9 ER in 12 IP. The Nationals lineup also is better than I think the books are willing to admit so far. They will likely miss Zimmerman today as he nurses a leg injury, but they are still plenty potent. Washington has tallied at least four runs in five straight games and in 6 of their last 7 overall. Meanwhile, the pitching stinks. Lannan has given up 8 ER in 8+ IP this season. Last season against Milwaukee, he was pounded for 7 ER in 1.2 IP. His career ERA vs. MIL is 7.11. Most of that damage inflicted from his lone start against them in 2009. The Brewers are hitting lefties well on the road in limited ABs and are hitting .250 against them overall. MIL has scored at least four runs in 7 of 9 games this season and have exploded for 19 runs on their current three game road trip, while giving up 22 runs. Both bullpens fall into the Napalm category, so offensive success early could lead to a bullpen blowout in this one. O/U set at 8.5 with the juice rising already. Booked at -130 and think the total will be 9 very quickly if it's not already. Both teams have hit totals of 9 or better in 7 of their 9 games this season. Tee it up!
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FORKBALL
Will continue to fade one of the worst two teams in the league this evening with Baltimore visiting Oakland for their 2nd game of their 4 game series. A's won the opener 6-2 last night behind Ben Sheets. Baltimore has dropped 7 straight in Oakland over the past two plus seasons and has just 6 wins in their last 26 visits to the Bay Area. They have also dropped 7 straight overall. Dallas Braden goes for Oakland tonight. The lefty is 4-1 in 5 career starts vs. BAL with a 1.32 ERA. He's given Oakland two quality starts already this season and Baltimore is hitting just .200 against southpaws this season. Kevin Millwood goes for Baltimore tonight. He has been solid, but has received just 5 runs of support in his two starts this season. The O's have scored two runs or less in 5 of their last 6. Oakland is available at -155, a relative bargain considering the match-up here and the A's are 4-1 at the Coliseum so far in 2010.
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CHANGE-UP
Taking this on principle alone as the Tigers are +145 against Seattle. A good portion of the Mariners being favored has to be King Felix starting game one against Bonderman. Felix has solid #s against Detroit, but with this inept Seattle offense thus far - Detroit can stay in this game with Bonderman and then look to strike late perhaps in the opener. Tigers have been hitting righties well at .297. They will face a single left in Game 2 in Ryan Rowland-Smith. Detroit sends out Verlander in Game 2 and Max Scherzer in the finale on Sunday. Seattle counters with Ian Snell in the finale who is coming off a poor start vs. TEX. Give me the better offense and plus odds that quite frankly are surprising to me. Detroit for the series, especially if they score the upset tonight against Felix.
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UPDATED
Curveball: 7-3 [+3.67]
Forkball: 6-3-1 [+2.58]
Fastball: 6-3-1 [+2.30]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 20-10-2 [+8.55]Comment -
SATURDAY, APRIL 17th
FASTBALL
To Fenway Park for today's look at the heater. Tampa puts James Shields on the mound and that alone is enough to warrant a play on Boston at home. Shields is 0-6 lifetime in 6 starts at Fenway Park with an ERA over 8. Couple that with Buchholz going for the Sox and this is a solid pick at -130 where the price is likely to continue to climb. Buchholz is 2-1 in four starts vs. TB in his young career with an ERA of 2.39. The BoSox won both his starts last season against the Rays where he went 13 IP, giving up just 4 ER. Shields has been owned by some of the Sox top bats with Pedroia 10 for 22, Drew at 10 for 24 and even Ortiz at 9 for 23. Ortiz needs a slump buster and this could be the day. All of Shields' losses at Fenway have been by more than two runs, so the run line is also a juicy look today if you want less chalk. I'll stick with the moneyline.
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CURVEBALL
The Nationals offense is still under the radar this season. Washington has scored at least four runs in 9 of their 10 games this season, making their team total of 4 attractive to me today. They face Randy Wolf today and while they are only so-so against lefties at .242, some of the Nationals batters do have success against him. Josh Willingham for one is 4 for 7 with a couple HRs. Adam Dunn has seen him the most with 8 hits in 32 ABs. Zimmerman is 3 of 9 and Guzman 3 of 11. Wolf has never pitched at Nationals Park, so perhaps that will help Washington as well. Brewers bullpen continues to be Napalm with a 5.68 ERA. They have surrendered 13 runs already on their current four game road trip including 3 late in last night's game. Wolf went 6.2 innings in each of his two starts this season, yielding 8 runs total [4 in each] and the opposition scored a total of 12 runs in those games.
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UPDATED
Curveball: 8-3 [+4.67]
Forkball: 6-3-1 [+2.58]
Fastball: 6-3-1 [+2.30]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]
TOTAL: 21-10-2 [+9.55]
Good old Uncle Charlie delivers the goods again. Nationals with 7 runs now in the 6th inning.
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What's the next fastball and/or curveball?Comment -
Only have the Red Sox play for tonight. Riding out my Tigers series bet, hoping they win tonight and give me some options tomorrow.Comment -
UPDATED
Curveball: 8-3 [+4.67]
Forkball: 6-3-1 [+2.58]
Fastball: 6-4-1 [+1.04]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 21-12-2 [+7.29]Comment -
SUNDAY, APRIL 18th
FORKBALL
The Angels & Blue Jays finish their three game set at Rogers Centre this afternoon. Ervin Santana vs. Ricky Romero with the O/U now set at 8.5. Let's start with the reason to try and FORK the books with the OVER, Ervin Santana. His ERA at Rogers Centre is 7.31 in three career starts. He's been average at-best so far this season with 9 ER given up in 11.2 IP. Ricky Romero has obviously bee a stud so far with the near no hitter and a 1.80 ERA through two starts. His lone start vs. LA came last season and he was solid, yielding 2 ER in 6 IP. The series between these two in Toronto has hit at least 9 runs in 8 straight dating back through last season. 5 of Toronto's 6 home games in 2010 have also hit for at least nine runs. The bullpens could help out here too, the Angels with a 5.97 ERA and the Blue Jays at 3.93, but almost a run and a half higher at home at 5.30.
CURVEBALL
It's Matt Garza day! I've documented the high percentage of Garza's starts that fall UNDER the total, so it's another shot today. Garza is 5-2 lifetime vs. BOS with a 3.23 ERA. At Fenway, his ERA is 3.62 in 6 career starts. Last year, in three starts at Fenway - the totals finished at 7 or UNDER in each start. Lester counters for Boston today. He is 6-2 in 12 starts against Tampa with a 4.00 ERA. He's been roughed up in his first two starts this season, with 4 ER allowed in 5 IP against both Minnesota and New York. In 2009 vs. TB, Lester was beat up in his first two starts against them - yielding 13 ER in those starts, but then allowing just 3 ER in 3 other starts against the Rays. Lester has always been a better pitcher at Fenway with a remarkable 23-5 record in 45 starts. His home ERA is a full run lower than his road ERA at 3.23. While Lester has been less than stellar so far, the one weakness the Rays have had this season is hitting lefties at just .177. 6 of the 9 meetings between these two at Fenway in 2009 finished at 9 runs or UNDER. This year, it's 1-1. Should be noted that 12 of the last 14 starts where 9 is the total for Garza have hit UNDER - so if you're not comfortable with 8.5, you can find 9 at 5Dimes for -137.
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Great writeups I like the over on laa/torComment -
GREAT INFO EP! THANKS FOR ALL YOUR PICKS!
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UPDATED
Curveball: 8-3 [+4.67]
Forkball: 6-4-1 [+1.48]
Fastball: 6-4-1 [+1.04]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 21-13-2 [+6.19]
Figures I pick one of Ervin Santana's "good" starts to try an over. Books forked me today.
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UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Forkball: 6-4-1 [+1.48]
Fastball: 6-4-1 [+1.04]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 22-13-2 [+7.19]
Uncle Charlie bends another Matt Garza start in for an UNDER! Close one at 8 runs, but Garza's starts continue to be great UNDER bets at this point. Hopefully Uncle Chuck doesn't get cocky as he's the leader of the pack.
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MONDAY, APRIL 19th
FASTBALL
I'll tee off on this continually until it proves to be an unworthy swing. I've said it before and I will say it again, the Washington Nationals offense is being overlooked. The Nationals have now scored at least four runs in eight straight games and in 10 of 12 overall. At home, they are hitting over .300 against right handers [Aaron Cook would be another one tonight]. They have now scored at least four runs in their last five straight at home. Cook for Colorado has given up 3 ER or more in both his starts this season with the opposition ending up with 5 runs in both games by the final pitch. So it's Nationals Team Total OVER 4 for me tonight at -110.
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UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Fastball: 7-4-1 [+2.04]
Forkball: 6-4-1 [+1.48]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 23-13-2 [+8.19]Comment -
TUESDAY, APRIL 20th
CHANGE-UP
Siding with the Dodgers over the Reds here. LA is 22-4 in their last 26 meetings with Cincinnati and the Dodgers have won 5 of the last 6 series between the two teams dating back through 2007. They have also won 6 of the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati. Couple that with the Reds coming into this one on a five game losing streak and the Dodgers have a chance to get off on the good foot tonight. Dodgers will send out Billingsley, Kuroda & Padilla. Cincy counters with Bailey, Harang & Leake. Billingsley is 3-2 with a 2.35 ERA against the Reds and will be looking to bounce back from a tough start. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA vs. LA. He had one good and one bad start vs. LA in 2009. Game 2 sends out Kuroda who is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA vs. CIN vs. Harang who is 2-4 in 6 starts vs. the Dodgers. Game 3 would see Padilla who has a 1-0 mark at Great American Ballpark, but a 10.24 ERA against the rookie Leake. It'd be to the Dodgers advantage I think to get Games 1 & 2 to win the series and they have the edge to do it. The Dodgers could also use a turnaround by their bullpen which has been faulty early on. Fortunately, the Reds have their own bullpen issues. Taking Dodger Blue at -145 for the series.
FASTBALL
Dead Red isn't the right phrase to describe where I'm sitting on this one and props to Wilforth for bringing this one to my attention with his selection today. To PNC Park and the Pirates Team Total today against Milwaukee. Let's start with the victims tonight with the Brewers and pitcher David Bush. Bush has been OK through 2 starts, allowing 2 ER and 3 ER. The opposition though still managed to pick through the Napalm that is the Milwaukee bullpen to score 5 runs in each of his starts. Count 'em up folks, 12 of 12 games so far for the Brewers have seen this pitching staff allow at least four runs. The starts have a road ERA of 6.92, while the bullpen is WORSE at 7.65. Bush is 3-4 vs. PIT with a 4.89 ERA in his career. His PNC Park ERA is 5.20 in 5 career starts. The Pirates have been steady at home on this home stand with four runs or more in all three games and have hit the four run mark in 5 of 6 at home this season. They have not given Charlie Morton any run support this season, but those two starts were on the road. Tonight, they'll need it and have a chance to get it done. Pirates Team Total OVER 4 at -115.
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Your fastball is my only play in the ML so far.Comment -
UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Fastball: 7-5-1 [+0.89]
Forkball: 6-4-1 [+1.48]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 23-14-2 [+7.04]
Figures I pick the night the Brewers get a dominant starting performance and probably won't waste but an inning with the bullpen. Dodgers not starting the series strong either. Oh well, on to tomorrow.
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WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21st
FORKBALL
Royals & Blue Jays in early matinee action. Total is set at 7.5. with Greinke against Marcum. At first glance, most would say well damn son, that's an UNDER. But a closer look finds Greinke with a career ERA over 7 at Rogers Centre. Additionally, all three of his starts have gone well over this total. Much of that can be attributed to a porous bullpen. KC's bullpen ERA is over 7 this season. Both Greinke's starts vs. TOR in 2009 hit into double digits. Marcum has stellar numbers against Kansas City at 3-1 with a 1.09 ERA in 7 appearances. Marcum though has not started against the Royals since 2008. This year's KC squad is hitting much better at .287 against righties, so they may do a bit better today. In any case, 7 of the 8 KC road games have hit for 8 or more runs. Toronto's current 9 game home stand has found 7 games beating today's number. Let's get FORKED!
And actually slipping this down to 7 at -130.
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im on it line just moved from o7.5 -105 to o7.5 + 105 wow hope we get this EaglesPhan36 if we do I just made $$ waiting 5 mins...
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Yay.Comment -
yeahhh o-3 from the first inning with home run. sweet!Comment -
UPDATED
Curveball: 9-3 [+5.67]
Fastball: 7-5-1 [+0.89]
Forkball: 6-4-2 [+1.48]
Change-up: 1-2 [-1.00]
TOTAL: 23-14-3 [+7.04]
Push. Taking the half run helped at least to keep it from being a loser.
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