EP36's Bullpen Session

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 3-0-1 [+3.05]
FASTBALL: 3-1 [+1.75]
CURVEBALL: 2-2 [-0.33]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 9-3-1 [+5.47]

Thanks Yanks! All 10 runs by themselves. Little unlucky with the Nats getting stuck on 4 for the push, but better than a loss.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cancelling the Pirates-Diamondbacks play due to pitching change to Zach Duke.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sunday, April 11th

CURVEBALL
Indians & Tigers total is set at 8 at most shops, but you can find 7.5 at 5Dimes for -115. That's where Uncle Charlie says we can find one today. Westbrook goes for the Tribe. He's coming off a poor opener where he allowed 5 ER in just 4 IP against Chicago. Now he gets a team that he has a career 5.05 ERA against. At Comerica, he's 3-5 with a 6.00 ERA. The Tigers' bats have been solid, scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of 5 games. Verlander has had his issues against Cleveland, until 2009. Verlander logged 23 innings against Cleveland last season in 3 starts and gave up just 3 runs. That dipped his career ERA against the Tribe to 5.20. His Comerica ERA for his career is 3.73 and he's coming off an average start against KC where he yielded 4 runs in 5 IP. Several Detroit players have been very good vs. Westbook. Mags is 11 for 34. Guillen, 11 for 37. Inge has two HRs and 8 RBI in 34 ABs.

FASTBALL
Mariners & Rangers meeting in Arlington with Snell facing Feldman. Feldman was an UNDERs dream last season, with his starts hitting UNDER in 20 of 31. At home, Feldman and UNDERs hit in 10 of 14. Some of those totals were inflated, but if they hit UNDER they were generally at 9 or less. That was the case in his opener that would have been an UNDER if not for a furious Texas rally late in the game that ended it in a push. Feldman had four starts vs. SEA in 2009, with only one finding him allowing more than 3 earned runs. Of those starts, there were two UNDERs, one OVER and one PUSH at the low total of 7 vs. Felix Hernandez. Ian Snell counters and he pitched very well vs. TEX in two starts last season. He allowed just five ER in two starts. Both Feldman and Snell were solid in their openers with quality starts. 5 of Seattle's 6 games have hit for 8 runs or less. 4 of Texas' 5 have hit 9 or under. 9 of the last 11 in this series at the Ballpark in Arlington have gone UNDER. Today's total is set at 9.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 3-0-1 [+3.05]
FASTBALL: 3-1 [+1.75]
CURVEBALL: 3-2 [+0.67]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 10-3-1 [+6.47]

Uncle Charlie bends in an early winner. Tribe lead the Tigers 7-1 and the OVER is home.

[superjeff24]

Hey OP, I don't think you realize why the White Sox acquired Rios. He has a great upside, but he played terrible(for his insane salary) last year, and still hasn't shown any of his former promise

[superjeff24]

Eagles fan, I'm just curious where you get your stats for pitchers vs certain teams. I'm sure I'm probably a NOOB for asking, but I'd be glad to know where to do my own research

[EaglesPhan36]

Yahoo Sports I usually use for pitcher stats. Gonna chalk this Mariners-Rangers game as a loss. Seattle can't get anyone out today. 7 runs already in the 5th, probably going to go over in this inning the way Seattle's pitcher is throwing.

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 3-0-1 [+3.05]
FASTBALL: 3-2 [+0.60]
CURVEBALL: 3-2 [+0.67]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 10-4-1 [+5.32]

[EaglesPhan36]

Monday, April 12th

FASTBALL
Texas at -112 heading to Cleveland today looks ripe for one to rip for a winner. The Indians are in a daze after blowing a huge lead to Detroit on Sunday. The Tribe have now lost three straight. They send out Fausto Carmona who pitched well against the White Sox in his debut in 2010. Carmona though is not a big fan of Texas as the Rangers have eaten him alive. 8 career starts and a 6.02 ERA with a 2-6 mark. He actually has better numbers and those two wins AT Texas, so he has really been crushed against them at Progressive Field. Pretty much the entire Rangers lineup has had success against him, most notably Josh Hamilton who is 6 for 10 with 4 doubles. Rich Harden goes for Texas. Harden was his usual self in his Rangers debut. 8 strikes, but 4 walks - so he lasted all of 3 2/3 innings. He has a 4.50 ERA at Progressive Field. The feeling is if Harden can get his control working and give the Rangers a quality start, the bats which heated up on Sunday could carry the rest.

CURVEBALL
It's Matt Garza day! I outlined Garza's UNDER success already, but let's hit it again. In road starts in 2009, 13 of 15 finished UNDER. Garza has dominated the Orioles in his career with a 7-1 mark and a 2.67 ERA. That includes a 4-0 record at Camden Yards in 5 starts with a 3.54 ERA. Guthrie goes for BAL. His numbers vs. TB aren't superb, but they are adequate. He pitched against Garza in Tampa last week, resulting in a 4-3 TB win. In his last 6 starts against the Rays, Guthrie has yielded 3 ER or less in 5 starts. The total is 8.5 at most shops at around +100, but you can get 9 at -125 at 5Dimes also if inclined to get the extra protection.

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
So the last time that it was Hochevar and Scherzer for the Royals and Tigers, it was a pitcher's delight with both shutting down the opposition through the 1st five innings with ease. Today, the rematch shifts to Comerica Park where Detroit has begun to swing the bats well. Hochevar was especially dreadful on the road in 2009 with an ERA over 8. That included a beating at Comerica where he was drilled for 6 ER in 4.1 IP. Scherzer was solid in his 1st Tigers start, but having now seen him once, we'll see if the batters don't get the better of these two pitchers early. Looking to FORK the books with the OVER in the 1st 5 at 4 runs [-115].

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 4-0-1 [+4.05]
FASTBALL: 3-2 [+0.60]
CURVEBALL: 3-2 [+0.67]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 11-4-1 [+6.32]

Forked 'em again.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie makes the call today and he's quite certain he can bend this one into the winning zone. Understandably, there are some ifs and buts surrounding the opener at Target Field. How will the field play? Will it be a pitcher's park or a hitter's park or somewhere in between? No real knowledge until you actually see a game and how the shorter fences and less foul territory influence things. Still, Jon Lester goes for Boston today and Lester has not faired well vs. MIN with a lifetime 5.66 ERA in three starts. April has been one of Lester's worst months with a 4.71 ERA. In his three starts vs. MIN, the Twins have tallied at least five run in each game. Lester has allowed 5 runs in each game, with just 2 of them unearned. Minnesota is hitting .321 against lefties, then toss in a leaky Boston bullpen so far and you have to feel in the stadium opener, Minnesota has a shot to get at least four runs. Getting the OVER at 4 at -105 gives Uncle Charlie that tingling feeling he likes right before he drops in at the knees and strikes the books out from taking us to the cleaners!

[EaglesPhan36]

CHANGE-UP
The red hot Blue Jays play host the White Sox as Toronto opens its home slate in 2010. Amazingly, Toronto has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. In Toronto, the ChiSox have lost 10 straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2007. Chicago sends out Peavy, Floyd and Danks to counter Tallet, Romero & Morrow. Peavy has no prior experience vs. TOR. Floyd and Danks do however with a combined record of 0-5 with ERAs in the 7+ range. The White Sox' bats are already struggling and will face two lefties in this series. That might be good news seeing as they hit lefties at .217 so far and righties at just .199. Toronto hasn't exactly ripped the cover off the ball, but they are getting timely hitting and solid pitching both from their starters and in relief. With all of that, I'll take the Blue Jays at even money to win this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL #2
My catcher threw this sign down right before the wind-up was set to begin, so I had to double check. But yes, a second chance to FORK the books today. A's-Mariners Total Hits OVER 15.5 at -115 at your local prop shop. A's hitting lefties pretty decently thus far and Duchscherer has given up close to a hit per inning lifetime vs. SEA. Throw it down.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated
forkball: 4-0-1 [+4.05]
fastball: 4-2 [+1.60]
curveball: 4-2 [+2.67]
change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

total: 13-4-1 [+8.32]

[MexicanStallion]

Nice work EP. Looks like you are throwing the heater well. High 90s.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 4-1-1 [+2.90]
FASTBALL: 4-2 [+1.60]
CURVEBALL: 5-2 [+3.67]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 14-5-1 [+9.17]

One dumb pick on the A's-Mariners today. The Matt Garza UNDER train chugs along. He'll be getting another start on the weekend. See ya there!

[EaglesPhan36]

Tuesday, April 13th

FORKBALL
Windy weather is the forecast in Detroit today, but it appears as though the wind will be blowing in. Certainly not always a precursor for an UNDER, but the pitching match-up might be. Bannister vs. Willis. This is a rematch from last week in Kansas City where both Bannister and Willis pitched awfully well, yielding just 3 ER in their 12 combined innings pitched. It was a late bullpen meltdown that allowed 7 runs in the final two innings to push that game total to 10. Bannister has been stellar at Comerica Park with a 0.45 ERA & a 3-0 mark. He is also about three quarters of a run lower in the ERA department in day starts in his career. This one to me is all about Willis. Can he follow up a solid start with another, against the same team? If Willis can throw strikes again, this will give us a chance to FORK the books where it hurts. You can buy this total up to 10 at 5Dimes for -130 as of now. That's the play here for the extra cushion just in case.

Updated: Winds now not looking like as big a factor.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie is headed to Coors Field today where Mets fans are already spazzing out about their the sky falling after just 6 games. Mets dropped 2 of 3 to the Nationals, but Washington has played the Mets tough in the past and this Nats team I do believe may overachieve this season. In any case, it's Maine for the Mets and Greg Smith for the Rockies. Maine lost his opener, yielding 4 ER n 5 IP against Florida in a 7-6 loss. Maine does have two good starts at Coors under his belt back in 2008. One thing he needs to find is the giddy-up on his fastball which is reportedly still lacking. Smith was nothing special with Oakland in 2008 with a 7-16 mark and 4.16 ERA. Adequate, but not overpowering. That may be why he was stuck in the minors in 2009. Mets bats will hope to wake up at Coors and against the lefty. Mets are hitting better against southpaws so far this season at .282. Interesting stat I found for this one, NY is 26-9 in the last 35 starts by Maine coming after a loss. Uncle Charlie tells me the books may have over-reacted in setting the Mets at +140 because of the public perception of them losing to Washington. Charles says I should be in charge of more money tonight when the Mets bring sexy back to the win column.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like I'm going to bust my "bullpen meltdown" cherry for 2010 today. KC & DET both screwing the pooch. 4 runs in the 7th and counting after just 4 the entire game before that.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Forkball: 4-2-1 [+1.70]
Fastball: 4-2 [+1.60]
Curveball: 5-2 [+3.67]
Change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 14-6-1 [+7.97]

Squashed by a half inning of shit relief.

[EaglesPhan36]

FASTBALL
ChiSox and Jays tonight at Rogers Centre and the team total for the Blue Jays looks ripe as a grip it and rip it on the OVER at 4 [-120]. Gavin Floyd has been gasolina when facing Toronto in his career. Three starts have resulted in no less than 4 ER allowed in each start. Floyd's career ERA indoors is almost a run and a half worse than his ERA outdoors. At Rogers Centre, 10.80 in his lone start. April ERA is 6.07 in his career. Road ERA 4.91. Toronto has scored four or more in 5 of 7 this season. Jays liked hitting when Romero was on the mound at home last season with 4 or more runs in 11 of his 14 home starts. ChiSox have allowed at least four runs in 5 of 7 this season.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Forkball: 4-2-1 [+1.70]
Fastball: 4-2-1 [+1.60]
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 14-7-2 [+6.97]

[EaglesPhan36]

Wednesday, April 14th

FASTBALL
When you're sitting Dead Red on a fastball, sometimes you can't believe the pitcher has the gall to throw it to you. Tampa Bay is -146 today against Baltimore, astoundingly low considering that the Rays have already beaten the Orioles in 4 of 5 this season and have won almost 70% of the last 50 or so meetings in this series. David Price goes for TB today. He pitched pretty well in his 2010 debut against the Yankees, yielding 3 ER in 7 IP. He's had good success vs. BAL, pitching twice against them in 2009 with Tampa picking up wins in each start. He gave up 5 ER combined in 12 IP in those starts. Baltimore is struggling against lefties with an average under .200 so far in 2010 and they have lost five straight. Bergesen goes for BAL. He got pounded for 5 ER in 4.2 IP in his debut in 2010 against Toronto. Lifetime vs. TB, he is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA. That lone start came vs. the Rays in Baltimore last year. The Rays won that won, 8-6.

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
To AT&T Park for the FORK job today. Pirates and Giants playing the rubber game of their series with Morton on the hill for PIT and Sanchez for SF. Both were less than impressive in their season debuts with Morton crushed by Arizona for 8 ER in 3.1 IP. Pirates starters have been brutal this season with an ERA over 8. Morton does have solid #s in 3 appearances against SF, including two starts in 2009. That was not against a full SF lineup though, so I'll temper the excitement on those numbers. Morton gave up 3 ER at SF in his lone AT&T Park start in 2009, but gave up 10 hits with the Giants leaving loads of men on base. Morton's day starts have been brutal with a 6.62 career ERA in 10 day games with a 1-7 record. Sanchez struggled with his control as he lasted just 4.1 IP in his debut in 2010, allowing 7 hits and 3 ER. His 14.04 ERA vs. PIT doesn't mean a ton to me here as he hasn't started against the Bucs since 2008. The face of that team is nothing like the current product and Sanchez hasn't faced most of these guys. PIT is hitting just .232 against lefties, but if they can be patient if Sanchez is wild, they should have RBI opportunities. OVER is 7-1 for PIT so far and it's 4-0-1 for SF at home. All five Giants games at home have hit for 9 or more runs. Same can be said for PIT on the road. OVER at 8.5 [-115] is the selection.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Fastball: 4-3-1 [+2.60]
Forkball: 4-3-1 [+0.58]
Change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 15-8-2 [+6.85]

Blue Jays series bet pending tonight. No point hedging it as the Jays are the dog, just hoping for the win.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Fastball: 4-3-1 [+2.60]
Forkball: 4-3-1 [+0.58]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]

TOTAL: 15-9-2 [+5.85]

Blue Jays screwed the pooch when they blew Game 1. Oh well, at least it was a plus money play. On to tomorrow.

[bentley19]

great work EP... nice start to the season. Keep it rolling...appreciate your thread!

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, APRIL 15th

FASTBALL
To St.Louis where it's a Dead Red afternoon for the funeral party that is the Houston Astros 2010 season. Their bats are dead. We know this. What you may have failed to notice about this Houston-St.Louis series is how the UNDER comes into play. 10 of the last 11 in St.Louis have finished UNDER the total between these two teams. Amazingly, Bud Norris [today's HOU starter] pitched 13 innings last season vs. STL and yielded no runs. He was pounded in his season debut, so who knows if he can regain that form from last season. That was the Phillies though and these Cardinals despite putting up some runs, are hitting just .242 against righties. Kyle Lohse goes for STL. He shut out the Astros in St.Louis last season, 3-0 and won a 7-3 decision in Houston where he surrendered 3 ER in 6 IP. Lohse has been at his best in April over the past three season, so against the dead wood of Houston - he should be able to limit them. Norris is the key here. If he can find that mastery of the Cards that he had in 2009, that keeps the bullpen out of the picture longer and helps the cause here. Total is 8.5 at -110. 5Dimes offers 9 at -135, may take that extra half run just in case.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Great writeups!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Added info for this 1st pick is that the wind may be blowing out over 10 mph to LF & LCF. Will watch and see what the total does here in the next hour before deciding what to do. Still like the UNDER, but may for sure take that extra half run.

[Wilforth]

THURSDAY, APRIL 15th

FASTBALL
To St.Louis where it's a Dead Red afternoon for the funeral party that is the Houston Astros 2010 season. Their bats are dead. We know this. What you may have failed to notice about this Houston-St.Louis series is how the UNDER comes into play. 10 of the last 11 in St.Louis have finished UNDER the total between these two teams. Amazingly, Bud Norris [today's HOU starter] pitched 13 innings last season vs. STL and yielded no runs. He was pounded in his season debut, so who knows if he can regain that form from last season. That was the Phillies though and these Cardinals despite putting up some runs, are hitting just .242 against righties. Kyle Lohse goes for STL. He shut out the Astros in St.Louis last season, 3-0 and won a 7-3 decision in Houston where he surrendered 3 ER in 6 IP. Lohse has been at his best in April over the past three season, so against the dead wood of Houston - he should be able to limit them. Norris is the key here. If he can find that mastery of the Cards that he had in 2009, that keeps the bullpen out of the picture longer and helps the cause here. Total is 8.5 at -110. 5Dimes offers 9 at -135, may take that extra half run just in case.

Thanks very much.

[jashtonrich]

Freaking great writeups i personally think you have some of the most interesting threads concerning your plays and the corky ways of coming up with plays love the different pitches to determine wagesclassic , especially the forkball i would like to use that on all books. but just wanted to let you thanks for the good writeups and thoughts.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm a little concerned with the wind, but I don't want to put too much stock into the wind blowing out because that doesn't always mean home runs are bound to happen. Gonna stick with this play and give myself a head butt if the balls fly out. 8.5 is my play, decided against the higher juice at 9.

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
Nationals & Phillies for this one. Looking to hammer the offering of the O/U at 9.5 with a play on the OVER. Any reason not to? These teams have played 5 games and all have featured double digit run totals. Scott Olsen might have some decent numbers vs. Philly in his career, but he couldn't crack what looks like a horrible pitching rotation for Washington. Olsen started the season at AAA after losing out to Garrett Mock for the 5th starter's role. Phils have hammed lefties to the tune of .321 thus far. J.A. Happ goes for Philadelphia. The southpaw was solid in his season debut, going 5 shutout innings against Houston. Then again, an armless vagabond could go 5 hitless against Houston these days. Happ pitched once against Washington in 2009, yielding 3 ER in 5.1 IP. Both bullpens may be fatigued, so if the hitters can tee off early again, we could see a ton of runs hitting the board once more. With the way the Phillies are going, ride the hot bats till they prove not to be. Total is 9.5 at -115.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 5-3 [+2.67]
Fastball: 5-3-1 [+3.60]
Forkball: 4-3-1 [+0.58]
Change-up: 1-1 [+0.00]

TOTAL: 16-9-2 [+6.85]

Astros win and the UNDER hits! FORKBALL not looking so hot thus far with just two runs between the Nats and Phils.