EP36's Bullpen Session

[EaglesPhan36]

Hello my baseball betting bros and hoes. I am going to use this thread in a manner that might be a bit different from others. I will be making some picks in here, but mostly I want to use this as a stream of consciousness type of thread where I simply point out things I see and how I might apply those to certain lines on a given day. Feel free to add insight or toss Haterade on me whenever possible.

PLAY #1: White Sox Season Win Total OVER 82.5 [-125]
[6 UNITS]
In what looks like a pretty average and open A.L. Central, the White Sox have an opportunity to stand out if they can stay healthy. The pitching rotation looks to be the strength of this team. Having Jake Peavy for a full season should really propel this team into contention. Peavy showed ChiSox fans what they can expect in three late season starts with a 1.35 ERA last season. Joining him is veteran Mark Buehrle, who quietly eats innings and keeps his team in games. That's his job again this season and he has no pressure to be #1 with Peavy in the fold. Then you toss in lefty Danks & righty Gavin Floyd for what is a four man rotation that can match just about any in the majors. The 5th cog will be Freddy Garcia. If he's healthy, he should give this team what it needs from a 5th starter - competitive innings. The bullpen will be anchored by Bobby Jenks who is coming off a season that could be considered disappointing with just 29 saves. The good news is that J.J. Putz is waiting in the wings to slide into the closer's role if Jenks struggles. Putz has had issues staying healthy, but as a set-up man he should be in a more comfortable role. Lefty Matt Thornton is a solid member of this pen.

Offensively, the White Sox have an opportunity to be much better in 2010. Chicago added some big bats in the off-season in the form of former Blue Jays' outfielder Alex Rios and DH Andruw Jones. Rios is a key fit for me. If he can regain the form that made him a promising potential stud, the ChiSox offense should produce. The health of Carlos Quentin may be paramount though. The 27-year old could be in his break out year IF he can stay healthy. Juan Pierre rounds out the outfield and he should give the team a more consistent on-base threat. The infield features plenty of offense with Gordon Beckham now in his 2nd season, shifting to 2nd base. He was solid and showed glimpses of becoming a potential stud. Alexei Ramirez did a good job on offense, but he needs to be a more consistent defensive presence after a 20 error season. Paul Konerko is back at 1B and you pretty much know what to expect from the vet. He plays almost every day and contributes solidly in the RBI department. With better on-base threats in Pierre and Beckham in front of him from Opening Day, Konerko should get back near or above 100 RBI. Former Royal Mark Teahen will anchor at 3B and should be a solid producer.

In piecing together this team, GM Ken Williams has put this team in a position to be a Trade Deadline player as well I believe as they should be able to stick around with Minnesota and we'll see if Detroit or Kansas City even is a third team in the hunt. If Peavy stays healthy at the top of the rotation and Jenks/Putz anchor the bullpen, Chicago will compete even if the offense fails to live up to some heightened expectations. Under Ozzie Guillen, Chicago has won 83,99,90,72 & 89 games. I see this team good enough to win in the mid 80s or better, so I definitely like them to get 83 and cash this ticket in October.

[ertl09]

great write up, I had them picked to take 1st in the central. This team should produce 83 wins no problem if it stays healthy.

[stealthyburrito]

love this over, white sox should have the best rotation from front to back end in the al central. plus, this team is primed for the division crown

[Willie Bee]

Just another echo here: Great pick in my opinion.

[EaglesPhan36]

Monday, April 5th

FASTBALL
The Phillies-Nationals total at 7.5 lends itself to a good OVER possibility. If anyone other than Halladay were pitching for Philly, the total would easily be a half run or full run higher. John Lannan has had very little luck vs. PHI, with an 0-6 record in 8 career starts against the Phils. His ERA in those starts is 5.82. Ibanez & Utley absolutely destroyed him in 2009 with 12 combined hits in 21 ABs with 4 HRs. Halladay is a stud of course, but he's given up at least three runs in his last four Opening Day starts. This one appears locked and loaded right down main street for a swing and a crushing connection with an OVER.

CURVEBALL
Tim Lincecum as just a -125 favorite against the Astros? Maybe it's a SWERVE, but you won't see this price much for the reigning Cy Young award winner. He's solid vs. HOU with a 2-0 mark in 5 career starts. His ERA at 1.56. Houston is going to have issues scoring runs this season and starts without one of their big bats in Lance Berkman. Roy Oswalt has decent numbers against SF in his career with a 3.70 ERA. Oswalt is 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA in his previous seven opening-day starts with the Astros, going 2-5 in those games. He's also making his first appearance since a leg issue ending his last stint in Spring Training. Uncle Charlie thinks the Giants should bend a win in here.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHANGE-UP
Giants -120 to win the series against Houston. Another one where the line seems like a swipe of second base against an armless catcher. You get Lincecum, Zito & Cain vs. Oswalt, Rodriguez & Myers. By pitchers alone, the Giants have a clear edge and again, the Astros offense I really believe is going to struggle early on especially without Lance Berkman. The Giants won both the home and away series against the 'Stros in 2009. I think they have a good shot to start at least 2-1 with the series win here. Lincecum is the key to get them started straight in the Opener and then I think you'll feel good about trying for a split in the final two.

[runnershane14]

I think houston figured out how to hit in the off season would be my guess for the low line on tim lincecum.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll be tracking my picks based on their category: fastball (best bet), curve (best value/line), change-up (Series) & a yet to be named specialty pitch (random). Just trying to find something entertaining about the 162 game grind.


FASTBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]

[kmarinouofm]

good luck homie

[pitman]

nice fastball

[EaglesPhan36]

Figured out the name for the 4th pitch ....

FORKBALL
Because if it doesn't hit, you're FORKED and if it does hit, you just FORKED your bookie. Boo ya. Padres-Diamondbacks OVER 8 is where I sticking my fork today. 7 of the 9 meetings in Arizona between these two last season hit for at least 8 runs. Haren hasn't had much trouble with San Diego in his career, but somehow - be it bullpen meltdown or offensive fireworks from his own team - there tend to be runs. No matter the uniform, Jon Garland has had issues against Arizona. A lifetime 7.01 ERA and now he's going against his former team today. Garland had a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field with the D-Backs last season and his ERA is closer to 7 lifetime at that park. D-Backs should score and why not the Padres for a few, Gwynn is back in the lineup - perhaps the lineage propels them to score some!

[EaglesPhan36]

FASTBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]
FORKBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]

Thank you Bobby Howry for the two Gopher ball donation in the 9th to cash the FORKBALL!

[pitman]

good job forkin' them with that forkball

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FASTBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]
CURVE: 1-0 [+1.00]
FORKBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]

Well I couldn't ask for a better start. The old CHANGE-UP is halfway home as well with the Giants winning Game #1 of their series with Houston. Agree with some of the comments made on the board, what in the F is up with the light schedule on Day 2 of the season and no day ball?

[EaglesPhan36]

Tuesday, April 6th

FASTBALL
Who knew Kevin Millwood still pitched? I kid, I kid, kind of. Millwood and Shields hooking up for the opener at The Trop today with the Orioles-Rays O/U set at 8.5 Millwood has been murdered at Tropican Field in his career. Three lifetime starts and a 6.63 ERA. In general, his luck against TB has been poor although he did come in on the right side of a 15-3 Texas win late last season. He's done reasonably well against some of the Rays in limited ABs, but something tells me the Napalm could be coming out to play today after Millwood endured a truly atrocious Spring [12.69 ERA]. Shields has always had good numbers against BAL, a lifetime 2.92 ERA. He got plenty of run support last year against the O's with TB scoring 5,7 & 11 in his three starts. While Shields is likely to dominate the Orioles again, it should be noted that all his starts against BAL in the past two seasons have featured at least two runs scored by Baltimore. If they get at least two, no doubt that with Millwood's help we'll get another heater right down Main Street, with a chance to bash on the OVER to cash.

[bentley19]

NICE OPENING DAY YESTERDAY EAGLES... WILL BE TAILING ALL YEAR. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
FASTBALL: 1-1 [-0.25]
CURVE: 1-0 [+1.00]
FORKBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]

Orioles and Rays were both truly pathetic with RISP tonight. That game had three half innings where a big hit would have put several runs on the board, including the top of the 9th for BAL when they several men on base and no outs. Instead, TB finally pulls their heads out of their asses to pull out a bottom of the 9th win that still didn't get an over. Oh well, if the Giants can hold on then the series win cashes in the first CHANGE-UP.

[EaglesPhan36]

Giants win and ya gotta love getting the SERIES win the first two games.

UPDATED
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

[kmarinouofm]

I'll be tracking my picks based on their category: fastball (best bet), curve (best value/line), change-up (Series) & a yet to be named specialty pitch (random). Just trying to find something entertaining about the 162 game grind.


FASTBALL: 1-0 [+1.00]

like what you are doing brother..

[jmanis25]

nice post

[EaglesPhan36]

Wednesday, April 7th

CURVEBALL
The Rockies are slight favorites at -110 this afternoon against the Brewers. The pitching match-up though favors the Rox a bit more than the price indicates. Aaron Cook was brilliant in a pair of starts against Milwaukee last season, allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings pitched. At Miller Park, Cook has been solid with a 2-1 mark in five starts and a 3.00 ERA. He's countered by Doug Davis who was horrible against Colorado last season. The lefty lost all three starts vs. the Rockies as a member of the Diamondbacks, yielding 15 earned runs in 13+ innings pitched. Two of those starts did come at Coors Field. Colorado has won 7 of the last 8 in this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated
fastball: 1-1 [-0.25]
curve: 1-1 [-0.10]
forkball: 1-0 [+1.00]
change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
Orioles-Rays UNDER 9 is where I'm headed today. Matt Garza was an UNDERs machine in 2009. Of his 32 starts, 22 hit UNDER the posted total with just 8 OVERs hitting all season. Date back to 2008 and just 13 of his 34 starts that season went OVER with 20 UNDERs and 1 PUSH. Toss in that Garza has owned Baltimore in his career [2.92 ERA] and has limited them to 3 runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts against the O's. Guthrie has been decent against TB in the last season, allowing just three runs against the Rays last year in two starts. He is 0-3 at The Trop though with a 4.97 ERA. That # is skewed though as he gave up 7 ER in one 3 inning stint in 2008, but otherwise pitched 20 innings in four other starts in the last two years at Tropicana Field and gave up just six runs in all. In this series at TB, 6 of the last 10 have gone UNDER including four of the past five meetings. At +105, this is a good one to see if Garza is still an UNDERs man. Interesting note to add that of his 12 starts set at 9 run totals in 2009, 10 cashed UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated
fastball: 1-1 [-0.25]
curve: 1-1 [-0.10]
forkball: 2-0 [+2.05]
change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

Thursday, April 8th

FASTBALL
This one to me looks like a room service fastball to CRUSH. Dodgers-Pirates in early action and you can snag the O/U at 5Dimes at 7.5 for -127. Tasty morsel for me as Billingsley may be a stud, but he doesn't like PNC Park. The LA righty has an ERA of 6.75 in 8 innings pitched there. Most of that damage was inflicted in his lone start back in 2008 when he was knocked around for 8 runs in 4.2 IP of a 15-8 loss. I'm not expecting those sort of numbers, but this Pirates lineup has some thunder to it and I believe they can get something off Bllingsley today. Paul Maholm gets the start for PIT. He's absolute Napalm during the day with a career ERA of 5.14 in day starts. He's also 0-3 in 6 career starts vs. LA with an ERA of 5.59. He was reasonably solid against them last September with a 7 IP performance, yielding 3 ER though. This series in Pittsburgh has still favored the OVER generally with 9 of the last 14 meetings beating the number for OVERs. Dodgers need this one to avoid 0-3 and the key has to be hitting with RISP for both teams. Between the two, an astounding 80 runners have been LOB in the first two games. Even with that, 23 runs were scored. Rain forecasted for some time in this one, so might be a rain delay during the game.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated
fastball: 2-1 [+0.75]
forkball: 2-0 [+2.05]
curve: 1-1 [-0.10]
change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

[pitman]

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
Phillies-Nationals with a large total that might scare some people off, but it constitutes a shot at FORKING the books. In the last 11 games between these two at Nationals Park, 9 have featured at least 11 runs. Today's total is 10.5 at most books, but I'll buy down at 5Dimes for 10 at -142. The wind is blistering out toward LF/LCF this afternoon at 25 mph. That doesn't necessarily mean that balls will fly out, but it certainly doesn't hurt. Kyle Kendrick has a career ERA of 5+ against the Nationals and his last three starts against them came in 2008. All finished with totals of 11 or better, be it due to his own ineptitude or great run support and today I dare say he faces a better Nationals lineup. Craig Stammen is on the hill for Washington. He's never faced Philly. He may wish he could say that at the end of the day. Phils have already pounded out 19 runs and the Nationals bats came alive some in Game 2 with four runs. Big guns are locked and loaded to play for both teams today, so I think at least 10 runs here and even the 10.5 has a great shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Phils-Nats tied at 5, guaranteed winner on the FORKBALL.

UPDATED
FORKBALL: 3-0 [+3.05]
FASTBALL: 2-1 [+0.75]
CURVE: 1-1 [-0.10]
CHANGE-UP: 1-0 [+1.00]

TOTAL: 7-2 [+4.70]

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, APRIL 9th

FASTBALL
The Giants at -107 represent the right stuff to try and smack a winner today. Joanthan Sanchez starts for SF. The streaky lefty has not done that well vs. ATL with a lifetime 5.30 ERA, but last year at home he did pitch 5 solid innings in helping the Giants win 8-2. He should have a leg up as this will be the first lefty starter the Braves hitters will face. Braves hitters are hitting just .154 in limited ABs vs. southpaws in 2010. Tim Hudson counters for ATL. He is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 4 starts at AT&T Park in his career. ATL has lost 7 of their last 8 in San Francisco and will likely be without Chipper Jones today. Although it may be difficult to say if the Giants bats are going to stay hot after a three game set against Houston, they did put together some solid efforts, while the Braves have struggled for just five runs after exploding for 16 in their opener. Taking the hot team at home and hoping the sometimes dominant Sanchez shows his stuff.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
The Twins and White Sox meet tonight in what I believe is going to be a great season series between the two teams most likely to fight it out in the AL Central. It's Liriano vs. Danks and old Uncle Charlie is going to bend in tonight for a shot at the OVER. It's listed at 8, but you can whip it down to 7.5 at 5Dimes at -127. Liriano has had issues at US Cellular Field with an 8.31 ERA i 3 career starts. Two starts last season vs. the Pale Hose resulted in 8.2 IP and 12 earned runs allowed. Danks has had his own problems with Minnesota. He is 4-5 in 13 starts with a 5.42 ERA. Last season, the Twins touched him for at least four runs in his five starts against them. Three of those five games hit above tonight's total with the other team falling at 7 runs in each. Chicago gave up 5 runs in their last two games after blanking Cleveland in their opener. Their offense was steady, but not spectacular with 6, 3 and 3. Minnesota beat up the Angels with 3,5,4 & 10 runs. Suggesting the 7.5 line here as this one could finish at 8 if either Liriano or Danks steps up and holds down the fort tonight. Even so, Uncle Charlie is gonna hit at the knees tonight and strike the books out from taking my money.

[MexicanStallion]

Great thread here. Best of luck to you this season.

[old threads]

I bet the White Sox -138 to win series at greek. Sox should get split tonight and Sat. and I love Buherle on Sunday over Blackburn. Good thread eaglesphan.

[EaglesPhan36]

updated
forkball: 3-0 [+3.05]
fastball: 3-1 [+1.75]
curve: 1-2 [-1.33]
change-up: 1-0 [+1.00]

total: 8-3 [+4.47]

[EaglesPhan36]

Saturday, April 10th

FASTBALL
Tonight, it's Pittsburgh and Arizona with Daniel McCutcheon taking the hill for PIT and Dan Haren for Arizona. In Haren's first start at home this season, he allowed just one run in 7 IP and the final still wound up hitting 9 runs. Lifetime, Haren is 3-0 in 6 starts vs. PIT with a 4.09 ERA. Last season, Haren earned a no decision after allowing 4 runs in 5 IP of an eventual 11-4 Arizona win at home over Pittsburgh. In 2008, Haren faced the Bucs twice with the home start yielding a 20 run total and the roadie at 7. 4 of the last 5 in this series at Arizona have featured at least 9 runs. The wheels have fallen off a bit for Pittsburgh after a hot start, but for the purposes of the OVER here that is good as they have allowed 19 runs in their last two games and given up at least 5 runs in 3 of 4. 4 of Arizona's 4 games so far this season have hit for at least 9 runs. The quicker Arizona gets to McCutcheon figures to be the better with the PIT bullpen already sporting a lofty 5.40 ERA with no PIT starter going more than 6 IP so far.

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie is making the call again after just missing the outside corner last night with the OVER in the MIN-CWS game. This afternoon, look at the Yankees & Rays. 9 of the last 13 at The Trop have gone OVER in this series, including last night's series opener. Sabathia takes the hill for the Yanks and his lifetime numbers at TB are not stellar, a 4.91 ERA in 8 starts. TB beat him up in 2009 as CC yielded 15 runs in just over 8 IP at Tampa. Some of that was due to faulty defense, but there certainly will be no jitters for the Rays hitters. Wade Davis counters for TB and he made six late season starts for TB in 2009, including one vs. NYY. He gave up 5 runs/3 ER in 5 IP in a 10-2 Yankees win in October. Davis thrived against lesser teams, but struggled hard against NY & BOS where gave up 11 ER in those two starts and just 4 ER in his other 4 starts. The Yankees' bats have been struggling a little after a hot start, look for them to get it going today and for the Rays to continue with their success against Sabathia of late. Upton, Zobrist and Longoria have hit him especially well.

FORKBALL
Nationals Team Total OVER 4 at -115. Perez has been awful against Washington in his career with a 7.14 ERA. That includes getting walloped by them at Citi Field back in April 2009. Dunn, Willingham & Zimmerman have all had some solid ABs against him. Look for the Nats to put up some runs today and then hold on for dear life with their pen perhaps for a win.