EP36's Bullpen Session

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, MAY 13th

FASTBALL
Seattle today with Felix Hernandez on the mound. He is 5-3 lifetime vs. the Orioles and 4-0 in 5 starts at Camden Yards. Seattle is 7-3 against Baltimore in King Felix's last 10 starts. His best start of the season, a CG 4-1 Seattle win at home came against the O's. Milwood was the loser in that game, giving up 4 ER in 6 IP. He's been fairly solid, but gets little run support. Milwood has lost three straight starts to the Mariners. Should be a pitcher's duel potentially. Mariners the play for me at -132.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 12-8 [+3.42]
Fastball: 11-8-2 [+1.34]
Forkball: 10-9-2 [-0.37]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 34-28-4 [+1.94]

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice. 5 run 8th for Baltimore.

[EaglesPhan36]

CURVEBALL
Damn it Uncle Charlie waited till late to give me a call, but he says that the Mets-Marlins is ripe for an OVER at 7. What? Santana vs. Johnson? He says do it. Johnson's seven starts have all gone over. 6 of the last 8 starts by Johnson against the Mets have gone OVER. Santana is coming off two poor performances, yielding 14 ER in his last two starts. This match-up yielded 8 runs the first time around earlier this season. Fish have hit OVERs in 11 of 16 at home. 9 of the Mets' 12 road games have hit for 7 or more. I say he's a crazy SOB, but let's bend it in. Going OVER 7 at -106.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 12-9 [+2.36]
Fastball: 11-8-2 [+1.34]
Forkball: 10-9-2 [-0.37]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 34-29-4 [+0.88]

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, MAY 14th

FORKBALL
Kauffman Stadium and the Royals Team Total tonight to FORK the books or die trying. Kansas City starts fresh with Ned Yost as their interim skipper, that doesn't mean a damn thing to this though. For me, it's about how pathetic Mark Buehrle has been for the ChiSox recently. Buehrle has been ransacked for at least three runs in six straight starts and opposing teams have scored at least four runs total or more in those same six starts. He does have good lifetime #s against KC at 20-9 with a 3.55 ERA, but he has given up 9 ER to the Royals in his last two starts against them in 2009. Several KC regulars have good #s against Buehrle. Aviles is 5 for 16, Butler is 11 for 33 with 7 RBI, Maier has crushed him - 7 for 16. Willie Bloomquist who is struggling this year is .433 against Buehrle, so don't be surprised to see him possibly getting PT tonight. As a team, KC has raked lefties at home to the tune of .300 this season. In three starts vs. lefties at home, they have scored 6, 6 & 7 runs. Royals Team Total at 4, going OVER at -115.

[EaglesPhan36]

FASTBALL
My write-up just got jacked, so I'll just say Paulino has gotten rocked twice by SF in his career and is mostly garbage. Wellemeyer has had troubles getting deep into games. Astros offense came alive in St.Louis, so they'll hope to continue that at AT&T Park. The Giants will look to rebound from a bad offensive series vs. SD. Paulino could be a great elixir for their scuffling offense. 5 of the last 7 meetings in San Francisco between the two teams has hit for at least 9 runs. 4 of Paulino's 6 starts have hit for at least 9. Total is 8.5 at -101, going OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 12-9 [+2.36]
Fastball: 12-8-2 [+2.34]
Forkball: 11-9-2 [+0.63]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 36-29-4 [+2.88]

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, MAY 15th

FASTBALL
I'm a bit surprised this number isn't lower, but I suppose that is the Coors Field effect. Still, Livan Hernandez & Ubaldo Jimenez have been two of the NL's best pitchers in 2010. Livan has looked rejuvenated and all six of his starts have gone UNDER. None have yielded totals higher than 9 runs. His Coors Field ERA is 7.14, but it has been a couple seasons since his last visit here. Jimenez has just been dominant with a 0.93 ERA. Only one of his 7 starts finished higher than 9 and that was due to a 12 run outburst from the Rockies. Both offenses have been hot of late, hitting righties very well with Colorado hitting .289 in their last 10 and Washington at .294. Jimenez has faced the Nationals once in each of the last three season with all those falling at 9 runs or less. Weather is cool, but wind will not be a big factor. It will be big for Livan to go deep into the game to avoid the bullpen mucking things up. He's gone at least 7 in 5 of 6, so hopefully he can keep with that trend. Total is 9 a -125, going UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL
Looking to FORK the books this evening? I am. To Atlanta we go where the Braves have come alive offensively. Atlanta has scored 34 runs in their last four games, including six last night against the Diamondbacks. They draw Rodrigo Lopez tonight. In games started by Lopez, 3 of the last 4 have seen the opposition get 5 runs or better. On the road, Lopez has three starts with 22 runs scored by the opposition. They have hit for 5 or more in 2 of those 3. Arizona has had plenty of trouble lately keeping runs off the board with six straight games seeing the opposition scoring at least 5 runs. Throw in one of the worst bullpens in the league with a 8.10 ERA on the road and the Braves should have a chance to continue to put up a ton of runs. Team total for the Braves is 4.5 at -110, going OVER.

[50cent]

any plays today..

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Fastball: 13-8-2 [+3.34]
Curveball: 12-9 [+2.36]
Forkball: 11-10-2 [-0.47]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 37-30-4 [+2.78]


SUNDAY, MAY 16th

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie woke up this morning to find himself surpassed by the fastball and he was none too pleased about it. Today, he promised to bend in a winner in Atlanta. Dan Haren vs. Tim Hudson. The formula is there as shown all season ... no matter what you think, Dan Haren starts produce runs. 7 of his 8 starts have gone OVER this season. Both his road and day starts average about 10 runs per game. Hudson meanwhile despite being stingy himself has found his starts going over in 4 of 7 this season, including 3 of 3 in day starts. Most of this is due to great run support as the Braves have given Hudson an average of 5+ runs per start. Haren has a 5,40 ERA in two career starts at Turner Field. Hudson has great numbers vs. Arizona at 4-0 in 6 starts with a 1.61 ERA. However, he hasn't faced the D-backs since 2007, so those numbers don't tell much about today. Wind could help some as it'll be blowing out to left center. Outlined the Arizona bullpen woes yesterday, so that will be a factor if the Braves can get to Haren early. Arizona also tomahawked the Atlanta pen quite nicely late last night, so the pens could help yield enough to get this done. Total is at 8 at +111, going OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-9 [+3.47]
Fastball: 13-8-2 [+3.34]
Forkball: 11-10-2 [-0.47]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 38-30-4 [+3.89]

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY, MAY 17th

FASTBALL
Grip it & rip it at Turner Field today. Mike Pelfrey for the Mets & Derek Lowe for the Braves. Pelfrey had a solid 5 inning performance in a 1-0 Mets win over Atlanta at Citi Field this year, but his numbers at Turner Field are poor. An 8.41 ERA in 4 career starts. Pelfrey's last three starts have also gone OVER with each game finding the total at 10 runs. Lowe has been a magnet for runs one way or the other with 5 of his 7 starts ending up with at least 9 runs on the board. Lowe also doesn't have much of a taste for the Mets with a 7.61 career ERA against them. David Wright is 7 for 16 against him. Lowe pitched five times against the Mets in 2009 and on four occassions, the game totals ended in double digits. Atlanta is hot of late with 20 runs against Arizona in their last three games and they've scored more than six runs in 5 of their last 6. The Mets have seen totals of 9 or more runs in 10 of their last 12 overall. Total is 8.5 at -108, going OVER.

[Wilforth]

Tailing your fastball. Let's hope the ball will move "fast" enough.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-9 [+3.47]
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Forkball: 11-10-2 [-0.47]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 38-31-4 [+2.81]

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY, MAY 18th

CURVEBALL
Uncle Charlie has made the call this morning to back Carl Pavano and the Twins. Pavano has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins with a 4-3 mark with a 3.30 ERA. On the road, Minnesota has gone 2-1 in his 3 starts this season. During matinee starts, Pavano sports a 2-2 record with a 4.44 ERA. Pavano pitched very well at Rogers Centre last year, out dueling Roy Halladay in a 4-1 Minnesota win. Shaun Marcum goes for Toronto. His home stats are solid at 1-1 with a 2.96 ERA, but Toronto is just 1-3 in those starts. He hasn't faced the Twins since 2007. Mauer, Morneau & Cuddyer have all had some success off him in limited ABs. Uncle Chuck said to remember that Toronto is just 10-11 at home this season. Twins today at +111.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-10 [+2.47]
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Forkball: 11-10-2 [-0.47]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 38-32-4 [+1.81]

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY, MAY 19th

FORKBALL
Time to get to the books and FORK 'em where it hurts. Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh tonight with Wolf vs. Burres. Wolf's road starts have been extreme. He has two starts where the Brew Crew have scored zero runs for him and two starts on the road where they've scored 17 & 20 runs! One of those was against Pittsburgh earlier this season. In two starts, Wolf has yielded just 2 ER against the Pirates this season, so don't expect the Buccos to provide much towards this total. They are hitting .244 against lefties at home. If they can get Wolf out, the Milwaukee bullpen seems to think Christmas is every day as they give it up to the tune of a 6.25 ERA. Burres had a couple good starts for the Pirates, but may be refinding his status as a piece of crap. He gave up 5 ER in less than 5 IP against the Cubs in his last start, a 10-6 Cubs win. Milwaukee has hit well against southpaws at a .286 clip on the road. 6 of their last 8 road games overall have hit for at least 9 runs and 5 of the 6 meetings this season between these two have hit for at least nine runs. If Burres gets blown up, the Brewers should have plenty more chances against a Pittsburgh bullpen with a 5.13 ERA. Total is at 9 [-111], going OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-10 [+2.47]
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Forkball: 12-10-2 [+0.53]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 39-32-4 [+2.81]

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY, MAY 20th

FORKBALL
Going for the FORK job on the books again today. Headed to Citizen's Bank Ballpark for the Cubs & Phillies. It's Dempster vs. Blanton. Dempster has done a good job going deep into games as he's pitched at least 7 innings in his last six starts. That is a definite need with the horrid Cubs bullpen waiting in the wings. 7 of Dempster's 8 starts have hit 9 runs or less this season. All four road starts have hit at 9 or below. Chicago has been an UNDER cash cow on the road with 14 of their 20 road contests either pushing the total or falling UNDER. Over their last 10, all but one has fallen under 9 runs. Phillies at home have been an UNDER machine lately too with 8 of their last 10 landing UNDER. Blanton has been somewhat shaky since his return to the rotation, but he has two quality starts in his career against the Cubs in the last two years with both games finishing at 5 runs. I think the key here is that Dempster must again go deep into this contest to keep the Cubs bullpen out of the mix for as long as possible. Total is 9 at -113, going UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-10 [+2.47]
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Forkball: 12-10-3 [+0.53]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 39-32-5 [+2.81]

One helluva rollercoaster ride to get a push, but I thought it was doomed when the Cubs got 1st & 3rd with no one out in the 9th - so I will take it!

[EaglesPhan36]

FORKBALL #2
Must be hormonal to go for a 2nd forkball and a 2nd UNDER. At Nationals Park tonight, it's the Mets & Maine against the Nationals & Atilano. Let's start with the homstanding Atilano who has now made five starts this season. He has allowed 3 ER or less in 4 of 5 and not coincidentally, those four have finished UNDER the total. That includes a 3-2 Nationals win against Maine & the Mets at Citi Field earlier this month. Atilano tossed five shutout innings in that one. Washington's bullpen has had some issues on the road, but has been mostly solid at home with a 3.16 ERA. They will play a role tonight. For Maine, he'll look to bounce back after a bad start against Florida in which he yielded 6 ER. Prior to that, he had gone five straight starts yielding 3 ER or less. Maine is 8-4 in 14 career starts vs. WAS with a 4.11 ERA. At Nationals Park, he is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA. He had one solid start and one poor start, but his last three against Washington have still finished UNDER. In his lone start against the Nationals this season, he allowed just 2 ER in 6 IP. The Mets pen has been pretty good on the road with a 3.67 road ERA. This series in Washington has been an UNDER affair with 9 of the last 10 in Washington hitting UNDER. The Nationals have also hit UNDER in six straight. Total is 9.5 at -120, going UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Curveball: 13-10 [+2.47]
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Forkball: 12-11-3 [-0.67]
Change-up: 1-3 [-2.45]

TOTAL: 39-33-5 [+1.61]

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY, MAY 21st

CHANGE-UP
Blue Jays at +125 for the series over Arizona. Toronto is currently the 2nd best road team in the majors behind Tampa. Pitching match-ups will be Morrow vs. Haren tonight, Eveland vs. E.Jackson Saturday & Marcum vs. Buckner on Sunday. Arizona won two straight to start their homestand against the Giants, but had lost six straight at home before that. The bullpen could determine this series as the D-backs sport one of the worst with a 7.70 ERA. Haren has been beaten up in his last couple starts and the D-backs are just 1-3 in his last four starts overall. Morrow has been pretty steady over his last six starts with 3 ER or less in five of those. Pitching match-ups to me are fairly even in all three, so getting plus money for a solid road team seems tasty.

[Wilforth]

Any fastball for tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, MAY 22nd

CURVEBALL
Milwaukee @ Minnesota. Offensive explosion last night with the Twins rolling 15-3. Today though the numbers point to a much different game. Gallardo goes for Milwaukee. In five road starts, the totals have gone 4-1 in favor of the UNDER with an average of just under 7 runs per game. All five have finished at 9 runs or under. Slowey starts for Minnesota. At home, all four starts have finished UNDER. Slowey was solid vs. MIL last season, going 7.1 IP and giving up 2 ER. The key is Gallardo as the Milwaukee bullpen has been gasoline with a 5.56 road ERA. Gallardo doesn't normally go too deep into games, but he must today after David Bush failed to get out of the 1st inning yesterday. 7 of the last 10 at Target Field have wound up at 9 runs or less. Total is 9 at +102, going UNDER. Uncle Charlie says so.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Fastball: 13-9-2 [+2.26]
Curveball: 13-11 [+1.47]
Forkball: 12-11-3 [-0.67]
Change-up: 1-4 [-3.45]

TOTAL: 39-35-5 [-0.39]

Negative units and drifting too close to .500, gotta step the F up son.

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY, MAY 25th

FASTBALL
Sittin' dead red on the Astros & Brewers OVER this evening in Milwaukee. Why? Randy Wolf is an OVER magnet. 8 of 9 starts for the lefty have gone OVER with all four of his home starts finishing in double digits. Paulino goes for Houston and 4 of his last 5 starts have all gone to double digits as well. On the road, Paulino has yielded 12 ER in two starts. At home, the Brewers have cashed the OVER in 12 of 18 posted games. The Brewers also sport that horrid bullpen with a 6.03 ERA, so if the Astros can actually hit a lefty they could get some time with that meaty bullpen. Total is 9 at -120, going OVER.

[50cent]

gl..

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Fastball: 13-10-2 [+1.06]
Curveball: 13-11 [+1.47]
Forkball: 12-11-3 [-0.67]
Change-up: 1-4 [-3.45]

TOTAL: 39-36-5 [-1.59]

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY, MAY 26th

FORKBALL
To the NCAA, yes the collegiate ranks as it is getting close to that time of the year when we start paying attention to the collegians. Conference tournaments have begun and today, it's a chance to FORK with the books with a parlay. In the Big 12, Texas takes on Missouri. The Longhorns head into battle today at 46-8. They swept Missouri in a three game series to close on the regular season on the road. UT has been exceptional in close games with an 11-4 mark this season in one run games, which bodes well for one of the most talented teams in the country. They put lefty Hoby Milner on the mound. He has a 0.96 ERA mostly in relief, but did start twice this season Milner is likely only expected to get his team into the middle innings before the Horns bullpen takes over. UT has won 7 straight heading into this game and 28 of their last 29. Mizzou was just 8-15 this season in road & neutral site games.

Virginia is the other part of the parlay. The ACC regular season champs finished 45-10 and ride a 17 game win streak into today's meeting with Boston College. UVA swept BC in their three game series in Virginia with BC scoring just five runs total in the series while the Wahoos tallied 22, including 7-1 & 11-1 routes. Today's UVA starter, Cody Winiarski, pitched 6 innings and allowed just one run in the 11-1 win. BC pitcher Pat Dean did not face Virginia in that series. BC dropped six of its final eight games and had to win its finale against Georgia Tech to make the ACC tournament. Give them credit as the Yellow Jackets are a Top 10 team, but it was do or die for the Eagles and Georgia Tech had little to play for on Senior Day for the Eagles. Parlay is -149.

First pitch in the Big 12 is at 1:30pm ET. ACC is at Noon ET.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Fastball: 13-10-2 [+1.06]
Curveball: 13-11 [+1.47]
Forkball: 12-12-3 [-2.16]
Change-up: 1-4 [-3.45]

TOTAL: 39-37-5 [-3.08]

Texas didn't even show up yesterday sheesh. Time to rally or go below the Mendoza line soon.

THURSDAY, MAY 27th

FASTBALL
AT&T Park. Nationals and Giants. Stammen vs. Zito. Stammen's road starts have all seen at least 8 runs, mostly due to his own craptitude. He has given up at least four ER in three straight starts. Zito has been strong at home with a 4-1 mark and a 2.90 ERA, but comes in having given up 3 ER or more in three straight. That includes a 6 ER effort last time out at Oakland. Washington may not offer the relief he'd hope for as the Nats have hit .325 in their last 10 vs. lefties. They also have the confidence of knocking around Tim Lincecum last night and scoring 7 runs in all. The bullpens have reversed course of late with Washington actually pitching well, while San Francisco has not. Still, the Nationals bullpen ERA is 4.91 on the road while the Giants home bullpen ERA is 1.90. 6 of the last 8 in this series at San Francisco have seen at least 8 runs scored. Going for the total at 7.5 for -115 and OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

UPDATED
Fastball: 14-10-2 [+2.06]
Curveball: 13-11 [+1.47]
Forkball: 12-12-3 [-2.16]
Change-up: 1-4 [-3.45]

TOTAL: 40-37-5 [-2.08]

SATURDAY, MAY 29th

FASTBALL
To Angel Stadium today where it's Felix Hernandez & Jered Weaver. Hernandez has been hurt by the Angels in his career on occassion, including giving up 7 ER in 3.1 IP earlier in May. Felix is in a rough stretch right now here he has yielded at least 3 runs in 5 of his last 6 starts with the Mariners losing six straight when he takes the hill. In 5 road starts, the total has hit at least 8 in 3 of those for Hernandez. His day starts are 3 of 4 in favor of the OVER. Weaver has also been bruised a bit of late, giving up at least 3 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. He does usually pitch solidly against the Ms though with a 9-3 career mark and a 4.24 ERA. Interesting numbers when these two pitchers meet against this opposition, the OVER has hit in 11 of the last 13 starts for Weaver vs. SEA, while Felix's last 13 starts against the Angels have gone over 9 times. Angels bullpen would be the one to help add on runs here as they sport a season ERA over 5. In their last 10, Seattle has hit OVERs in 7 of 10, while the Angels have hit OVERs in 8 of 10. Total is 7.5 at -111, going OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUNDAY, MAY 30th

FORKBALL
50 Cent Special: Get rich or die tryin'. Back to Anaheim today and going with the opposite of yesterday. Snell vs. Saunders. Snell is back in the rotation after a stint in the bullpen. He was solid against San Diego in his first start back. He has had a bit of a rough time against the Angels in the past, but gets a banged up offense without Morales & Hunter. Saunders has been a stud against Seattle with a 7-1 record in 11 starts with a 3.06 ERA. 5 of his last 7 starts against Seattle have wound up with 9 runs or less. After bottoming out with a 7 ER performance against Boston, Saunders has gone four straight starts of 3 ER or less with all those totals falling at less than 9 runs. 7 of his 10 starts overall this year have gone in that same direction. Key is Snell. He must get into the 6th inning. Total is 9 at +105, going UNDER.