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sportsbetting if u do it thru western union....Comment -
Sting ... looking forward to it in the morning .. I got early class and will check your new threads and updates then .. later man ..
what do you think about Tigers for the first series? especially fading Greinke in game 1 should be an inflated lineComment -
After we get this 50K we're goin on a victory lap down the strip baby!!!!!!
Frankie was the man....Comment -
Cubbies ain't sweepin ATL in ATL without Lilly case closed....
Last time for everything for ole Bobby C.....
And the Indians shouldnt be able to sweep Chi-town on paper......
Phillies make a really strong case to not be swept imo....hmmmm
I don't see the Pirates sweeping anyone on the road including LAD....I rank this one pretty close to Philly as far as strength imo...
Unless Chapman is pitching lights out i don't see how the cards don't cruise to 1 victory in this series to open up the season....
LAA:With all the pieces they lost they better not start out the year 0-4 or we're gonna hear grumblings....
Miller will not be swept by Coors, of all beers.......
And the Friars aint sweepin anyone this year on the road I'm callin it right now....No Vasgersian..no post-season!!!!! muhuhuaahahaahaaa
Oh Yeah and the Lastros are gonna beat Lincecum,Cain, and Sanchez to start the campaign... no big deal.......Comment -
okay sorry guys the sickest system ever seen just turned out to be sick...
I been backtesting it, and in the long run it just goes 50/50 essentially... the reason why I thought it was worth something was it does amazing in april for some reason... april 2006 19 - 9 and just as good in april 2007, with no more than two losses in a row, which made me think a chase was possible... and then it starts getting killed in May, june, july etc... all the way to 50/50 on the season
the system idea was... there is a prop of run in the 1st inning yes or no... it is always about even money, and usually yes is slightly plus money odds...
so I took the biggest fav game on the day and checked for first inning runs in just that one game each day... it kills in April and then gets killed most of the rest of the year
I should have known not to waste the time just when I thought of how absurd it was....
the only rationale of why there would be correlation is the teams are mismatched and one team has a potent top of the order obviously, so first inning runs is more likely... but I think the fact an ace is probably going in the game balances it out.... so back to work on this system approachComment -
hey...thats how we get good ideas stingy...
thanks for at least following up your idea...Comment -
I just got an idea on this system, really want to know what you guys think....
the one aspect of this system that makes it risky and why most would criticize it is the chase aspect right? well... what if we eliminated the chase aspect....
wait for a home team to go 0-2 in the first 2 games and then just drop one 'A' bet on game 3?
last year if you stayed to the top teams you woul have still been undefeated... and even in years where sweeps happen you would catch literally only a few loses, except the difference is your overall record would be way in the plus side and you havent chased so you would only need like a 65% success rate on these bets to show a nice profit....
what do you think?
I will have to backtest this to see what the overall results were, but... I am very confident that you would win way more of these bets than lose, and you wouldnt be chasing at all...Comment -
I don't know if you noticed but a couple pages back I mentioned skipping game 1's and waiting for a loss then chasing the last two. Skpping two games would really limit how many plays you have but I am sure it would be profitable.Comment -
I remember that post... the thing about skipping game one is most of the wins are game one wins... but you make a point, skipping two losses kind of gets the same result, but it makes it so there would be no chase at all... it does limit the plays a lot... which is why if I back test it, I would do so for the whole league and see what the results for the results would be any time any home team is down 0 -2 how well you would do just betting against home sweeps league wide... that would increase the bets in a season... probably a few losses too, but there is no chasing so anything over 65% winning on an approach on that would be a winner
I was thinking... less plays... high historical win percentage could warrant a higher bet amount to make up for it as well....Comment -
What was the Yankees home sweep record last year???
They went undefeated right???
What we should do is concentrate on the recent home sweeps of the top 5 teams and understand why they got swept so that we can avoid those same mistakes...
As much as I don't care why the Buckos swept whoever on the road back in whenever... It might help to know If your trying to not repeat history....Comment -
the yanks only got swept 2 times in the past 3 years at home I believe ... I mean, what we are betting against something that actually very rarely happensComment -
What about skipping game two entirely????? lmaoComment -
I think we have something that at worst... if stuck to is at worst a break even year, and likely no matter how it is done, it would show a profit on the year... what we are trying to do here is make it so it could never lose, and doing that ahead of time is impossible.... so I think we need to just narrow it down to as good as it gets, roll with it, and in the meanwhile hope for the best possible result (no losses)Comment -
Let me ask you guys something. There is a guy across the street that has posted for quite a while in the systems and JM section that seems to be a stand up kind of guy. Just recently he put up a website and is selling a 3 game chase system for MLB he says is 320-1 the last 3 years. I think he said the average juice would equate to about 11 losses if you lost a series. He wants $375 for this season's picks but I am sure he would probably take a little less. He posts what I believe to be his real name (because his username across the street was basically his full name) and a picture of himself on the website and seems very believable. I really don't think he is pulling a JM type of scam but honestly believes in what he has found. I've emailed him several times and he always responds quickly and very thoroughly with no pressure. Any thoughts? Is what we are doing here just as good for free?Comment -
stingy...
i looked into this a few days ago and noticed that the results were improved, but the risk is you are laying more on the line.
so my thought was based on using this system in a 4 game chase. i am basing it on the assumption that the home team has the biggest advantage (disregarding pitchers) during the first game of a series. i think that is why we see most of the games won during the first game of a home series. so by using a 4 game chase, you are getting 2 "first games" in your chase. now the negative will be you are now chasing 4 games, and doing that on the ML will get expensive. i have not backtested it yet, i just browsed through the results at first glance. i will try and run some numbers on this.
another thought would be if the juice is too high on the 4 game chase, we could look at the 4 game chase on the -1 RL. although i agree the -1 RL somewhat dislocates our interests and the teams interest. they dont care if they win by 1 or 10, they just want a win, and to avoid a sweep.Comment -
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whats up rev... I backtested this with the four game chase... the results is based on the advantages you noted... you eliminate about half the losses... it works to improve these already decent numbers... especially with the good teams, on the rare occurence they get swept at home, they almost always win game one of the next home series... the one complication that comes up is, and it happened with the yankees about 2 years ago... they took a home sweep on the last series of a homestand... so doing the 4 game chase, you lost the first three... and they did win their next home game, but you had to wait two weeks for them to come back home to place that fourth bet... that scenario would complicate your management and bankroll a lot
dye guy... sounds interesting... I kind of am trying to wrap my head around those numbers and what stands out to me is I dont know how you can do a 3 game chase and have your total exposure be 11 units, at a minimum it is usually 15 units... but I suspect that he stumbled across a pattern of betting that is something along the ballpark as this and then figured out a filter that netted the 320 - 1 result... what we got here is in the ballpark of 4 or 5 loses in 3 years... so if he can substantiate his numbers it is probably worth 375 if that is affordable... but I think what we got here is almost as solid and free
the other thing to consider is this.... all these big numbers are great to hang our hats on, but the reality is any given year the yankees could take 3 home sweeps where they havent done that in ages... will it happen, almost certainly not... but the point is, that is the part that is gambling... and no matter how you try, or how something is 320 - 1 will never eliminate that small chance of losing... so given that... I would opt for what has numbers that are almost as good for free...
however, if has a 99.7% system, which is what he suggests, that continues to work, it would pay for the 375 expense in about two weeks, so in that sense it is worth itComment -
I've been up 3 nights in a row!!!!!!!!
This system may sweep my brain!!!!!
What's the name of the Website!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wheres the dam smiley face eating popcorn!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Play with 2% to win of bankroll on "A" Game.
You will need a big bankroll to start everything below 1.000 USD is hard to work with over time...
But you can come out of season as a winner, if you handle your money like an investor, but 99% of gamblers are not able to do this due to their emotion...
BOL guys!Comment -
is that 99.9 err.......?
Hey Sting
How bout a system based on a pitchers record SU for the 1st 5 inn. including the ties?????
Grienke??????Comment -
Sorry guys, I went back and read through his emails. He said the one loss in the 320-1 record cost 11 units but the average would be 15-25 units lost which makes more sense. I don't think we can post website links on here so PM me if you are interested. Stingy, that makes alot of sense what you said and I agree that you can go back and filter stuff out to make the record look great. That's one of the questions I will ask him next is whether or not the system record is according to the rules as it was originally written or if it is a filtered record.
I PM'd you guys that asked for that link.Comment -
How is this guy suppose to prove to us that his record is legit before we pay him lmfao.........
Not only could there be filters but we have no idea what could produce 320-1 and why.....Comment -
Yeah, that's always the problem. Obviously comes down to trust and I wouldn't even consider it if it weren't for some of the things I mentioned about him. Don't you guys ever sleep?Comment -
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The Red Sox are getting swept!!!!!!
Aroid has four dingers and Tex's got two......Comment
