no matter what bet against (series chase) the entire eastern division teams (AL/NL) when they travel west; playing @ angels, mariners, a's, dodgers, giants, rockies, and diamondbacks. the only team to eliminate is the padres. when anyone plays the padres run for cover.
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you guys are thinking way to much... go over to covers in their systems and strategies area and look at a system in any sport that has succeeded long term. You can usually find them very easily by post count, obviously look at threads with highest counts. Then if you choose modify/add filters from there. Why would you pay for a system?Comment -
In the long term patience will pay off... following the system of choice exactly is the stumbling block for the young degenerate losing gambler. Guys just use a system that will get you through to football ahead of the game.Comment -
any other ideas guysComment -
I know wht I am doing for the most part... once sunday comes I am going to start a new thread and all who want to visit there can... hopefully it is all of you... I have been doing this long enough to know what looks very solid and what the pitfalls are...
I like that angle east to west... works good in reverse for football, and even basketball to an extent....
I am betting for some of the best teams in the league not to get swept, and fading some of the worst teams in the league not to sweep on the road.... keeping an eye on which series to include and exclude week to week... and also a small biggest fav of the day on the - 1 RL chase as it also puts up solid numbers... I also suspect the two systems plays will overlap oftenComment -
I appreciate all your hard work brother. Will definitely be following along.Comment -
Same here...let's go for it this season...and let's see if we can carry this over to football, basketball, and hockey maybe too?
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Holla at ya boy scout.......Comment -
Lets Go!!!!400 to start... 20 dollar unit... up unit by 50% after every twenty wins
20 wins 800 roll new unit 30
40 wins 1400 roll new unit 50
60 wins 2400 roll new unit 80
80 wins 4000 roll new unit 120
100 wins 6400 roll new unit 200
120 wins 10400 roll new unit 300
140 wins 16400 roll new unit 400
160 wins 24400 roll new unit 600
180 wins 36400 roll new unit 800
200 wins 52400 roll congratulations
your sportsbook just cut you off
now we just need 200 straight wins... but it did happen last year
It's like Deal or No Deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
lmaoComment -
So what are the teams? NYY BOS .... PITT KC WASH???? SD ????Comment -
here is what I have been thinking.... keep a list of best teams not to get swept at home... crappy teams not to sweep on the road.... and use that list to pull a few series each week that look like the best matchups for that week...
that only make sense, it doesnt make a lot of sense right now to say every Boston series for the year right now, when we wont know the state of the team in august until then.... but with that strategy being said, I can see myself playing just about every NYY and Bos home series, as well as fading Wash and Pitt in just about every away series....
Here are the series I am looking at for the first week:
Nyy at Boston (playing boston)
Cleveland at CWS (CWS)
Philly at Wash (Philly)
SD at Ariz (Ariz)
Lad at Pitt (LAD)
Balt at TB (TB)
as far as the 50 K hoyos... lets get it brother... I am going to start a thread for sunday with starting bankroll to track the plays for the year week by week... and also propose my progressive wagering strategy in this system... the wagering pattern and structure is just what I will be trying and a suggestion, not necessarily recommended but the picks will be there, so however you want to set up your own wagering for the year around them is up to the individualComment -
What about STL and LAA???Comment -
So your gonna take away teams as wellComment -
well... that list is just what I am looking at, nothing locked in on yet... I wasnt going to consider away teams at all until I saw Philly at Wash...
Halladay in season opener with the Phils against the nats
then if somehow Halladay loses you got Hamels...
if by some miracle Halladay and Hamels both go down to the nats, you still got game three to bail you out??
plus, can anyone one see the reigning NL champs losig three to the nats to open the year?
see what I mean, certain series particularly to open the year are going to be as solid as it gets even though it is playing an away team...
plus, if you can find a series like this and the team that shouldnt get swept is on the road, the juice will be so much lower... which helps if we do have to chase in it....
I dont see too many away teams though being included all year long, this one is just too good to pass up, it probably wins in game one
you got to remember, in taking a series, the team we are betting, we are betting this team will win one game out of three... The philly at wash bet is so glaringly good going into it, even if it turns out to somehow lose, you really cant kick yourself for going for it
though I dont think in general taking away teams is a great idea with this... in fact, I am very cold on the idea of LAD at Pitt... I almost didnt put it on the list, so that in itself probably should make it a no playComment -
I'm goin $10 to win on each series and then raise my unit by 50% every 20 series wins...come on 15K MLB season!!!!
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This looks like a good plan...we should definitely play each week's series on a week to week basis and go with the strongest plays!Comment -
nice... that is what I am going with... starting with to win 10 per series, and after every 20 series wins increase the unit by 50% it is progressive so your profits compound through the year.... if you can somehow get through the year doing this without a loss in a series and you wager on about 200 series overall... it would turn 400 to 50K of course that would have to be a perfect season, which was possible last season... and you can imagine even if you go a little less aggressively in the increases, you can still turn 400 to 10 or 20 K in the year if you dodge any losses, which that return is ridiculously good too
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i can't read 14 pages here, what is the main concept of this thread? does it use a progressive betting strategy? how do you pick teams? is this only for MLB?
thanks!Comment -
Thats why I was thinking if you lose the 1st 2 what about putting just enough to break even.
but i was thinking of just picking my teams and riding it outComment -
thats a good idea... I can put that together tonight.... the nice thing is it isnt all that long of a listComment -
You da man Sting!!!!!!
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Wasn't philly almost better on the road than at home last year? Seems like I remember them always winning away and losing at home.Comment -
Any update on those numbers Sting?????
I'm tryin to convince my wife to throw in 3 g's right now.....
it's workin....
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yes... I am definitely hesitant about including Philly at home on this, they took like 3 home sweeps last year...
lol, hoyos if you pull off the 3 g's I am recommending starting april light dont have it riding on this right out of the gate... make the plays but max out wagers at 3 % of your total roll man, at least until we get some wins...
I am going to put my wagering structure for the season and starting roll in the thread I start, at this point it is looking like I may be lucky to be starting this with 200... basketball has been a biatch the past monthComment -
Area in red...the chances of you picking a losing series are between 8% and 16% each time...so chances are you will have a few losing series...so factor at least 4 in...if you lost more than 8-10...something is wrong and start again... nice... that is what I am going with... starting with to win 10 per series, and after every 20 series wins increase the unit by 50% it is progressive so your profits compound through the year.... if you can somehow get through the year doing this without a loss in a series and you wager on about 200 series overall... it would turn 400 to 50K of course that would have to be a perfect season, which was possible last season... and you can imagine even if you go a little less aggressively in the increases, you can still turn 400 to 10 or 20 K in the year if you dodge any losses, which that return is ridiculously good tooComment -
Any update on those numbers Sting?????Comment -
working on it now... which numbers do you mean?
I know it is outlandish G... but the reality is, if you played on Bos, NYY, LAA, LAD, CWS, TB at home.... and faded Pitt, KC, Wash, SD, Hou on the road all season long for each until sept 1... you went 214 - 0 and using a progressive method of wagering could have turned 400 into over 50 K....
the chances of that happening again... not very great, but if it happened 9 months ago, it can certainly happen again.... I also am a little curious where you get those figures about the true percentages on a team getting swept at home? Based on the backtesting I have seen it seems a lot less than a 16% chance to happen... I would put it more at 5 % to happen just in a loose estimation.... Teams over the years definitely do not get swept at home in all three games 16 % of the time... it hasnt happened at fenway, the bronx, or at the angels in over two yearsComment -
I am not sure but believe TB and Bos both swept short 2 games series against NYY in 09.Comment -
you are right about that... at this point the original concept has been kind of blurred....
the conditions were... betting against home sweeps... no plays after sept 1 .... and the series has to go at least 3 games.... based on those conditions the 11 teams listed in my last post went 214 - 0
I know it is easy to group teams with 20/20 hindsight and have a perfect record, but it shows if you select wisely, it is possible to dodge a loss all year... though if you hold a gun to my head... I would say if you made this many plays on a season, you can probably count on one or two losses over the whole yearComment -
you will have losses just factor them in... the 5 best teams last year will not be the 5 best teams this year. What you should be worried about is a set of rules...including the exact money management system you will use... You should be able to pick enough series to be ahead...also remember there are losses within that do not show up! The 3 game chase is just an offspring of morrison...Comment -
ok... just making sure... give me your list of five top teams, and I will put up the pitchers that were swept for each the past two yearsComment
