At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

[G's pks]

ok... just making sure... give me your list of five top teams, and I will put up the pitchers that were swept for each the past two years

Top teams is not what I look for...I filter each series... Look at each series the day before...look at injuries, pitching mismatches, and a list of other stats. I would like to see the rotations go through at least once...maybe twice...before I even start...but will probably start within a week of season.

[stingyrivers]

we are kind of on the same page G... I am going to be doing the same thing... no teams set as a must play, but each week make a new evaluation of possible matchups for the week...

[DeHoyos]

Bos nyy laa stl sf

[G's pks]

we are kind of on the same page G... I am going to be doing the same thing... no teams set as a must play, but each week make a new evaluation of possible matchups for the week...

All teams go on winning streaks and losing streaks...so sticking with the exact teams might not be the best idea... I also avoid teams in losing streaks...

[stingyrivers]

there is a pretty decent strategy of betting on a team that has won between 3 and 6 games when they are playing a team that has lost between 3 and 6 in a row... because baseball os a sport of streaks... it puts up very likable results

[stingyrivers]

k hoyos, give me about 20 minutes and I will have the list of pitchers... I got one teams for you already... LAA... they havent been swept at home in the past 2 seasons, so no pitchers on that list

[stingyrivers]

got the results.... typing them up in the next post now... not sure how much it will help because I noticed most of the losses were given away by bullpens more so than lost by the starters, but in looking this up I did find out some interesting things, and possible some new filters

[DeHoyos]

[stingyrivers]

LAA in the past 2 years were not swept at home according to the rules here, so no list on that team

NYY had no sweeps last year in 2009, and 1 sweep in 2008

vs Det.... NYY starters: Hughes, Pettitte, Ian Kennedy


Boston had no sweeps in 2009, and 1 sweep in 2008

vs LAA.... Bos starters: Dice-K, Buckholz, Beckett


STL had 2 sweeps in 2009 and 2 sweeps in 2008

2009: vs Mil St L starters: wainright, wellemeyer, Lohse

vs Colo St L starters: wainright, wellemeyer, pineiro, thompson

2008: vs. Mil St L starters: Pineiro, Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer

vs. KC St L starters: Pineiro, Looper, Thompson

** interesting note about St L, when they got swept the first time in 2008, there was an article attached to the box score that said, that was the first time there was a 3 game sweep against ST L since 2001.... that is no sweeps against ST L in a 7 year stretch


SFG had 1 sweep in 2009 and 4 sweeps in 2008 (waste really considering this year, they had a AAA batting order)

2009: vs LAA SFG starters: Zito, Sanchez, Lincecum


2008: vs CWS SFG starters: Sanchez, Zito, Cain

vs Mil SFG starters: Cain, sanchex, lincecum

Vs Oak SFG starters: Zito, Cain, Correia

vs Ariz SFG starters: sanchez, walker, Zito


looking all this up a few things stood out to me................................

[DeHoyos]

** interesting note about St L, when they got swept the first time in 2008, there was an article attached to the box score that said, that was the first time there was a 3 game sweep against ST L since 2001.... that is no sweeps against ST L in a 7 year stretch


PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFTTTTTTTTTT


STL wont get swept this year with a healthy Carpenter

What would be record with all the teams only in series with the #1 and #2 starter going in the series ....fading the bottom half

[stingyrivers]

looking up the pitchers in sweeps made me see two things...

one as a general rule, the few times that decent teams got swept in the past 2 years, their ace generally did not pitch in the series, with a couple exceptions....

Also, most of the teams that swept them were better than average teams....

almost lends itself to two filters that could eliminate losses

1) you only make a play if your ace is going in the series

2) you only make a play if the opponent has a record that is less than .500 (or .550) point being dont make the plays against another top team


and a side note... Milwaukee shows up a few times, they seem to have the tendency to go on the road and sweep teams, so becareful in making these plays against them

[DeHoyos]

Fade any team without their ace goin in the series!!!!!

They wont sweep without the big boy!!!!

Lotta plays on that

Bet the bottom half of the teams wont sweep without their ace....

Might not have any plays the first week or so which might be a good thing...

[stingyrivers]

that is what I am saying.... in the past three years, we already got about 10 teams to bet for and against that in general were roughly 15 losses in about 400 series...

if you add those two filters... only if your ace is going AND the series is against a team with less than a .525 win pct... I am pretty sure it would be undefeated... or close to it... it would eliminate a bunch of wins, but it would also eliminate almost every losing series

[DeHoyos]

We're on ta something Stingy ole boy!!!!!!!!!!!


Loading bowl now.....



Hey stingy what if you were to take your top 5 bot 5 and sit there on opening day and wait to see which ones lost gm1 so that you could start with bet A on game 2 of a chase and so on all season long????

I guess it wouldnt matter cuz you need the plays.....booooo

[DeHoyos]

[reverend]

great find stingy...

i am trying to finish up some other work, but i am very interested in this...

[dyeguy]

There's a guy on another forum that has been betting home favorites not to get swept for a long time. His criteria are:
1. First game the home team has to be favored by at least -140
2. The team must have won at least 2 of their last 3 games
His record was 80-1 last year with the loss coming on Philadelphia. I think the Phillies could have been filtered out with the way they were playing at home. I think I would still not bet certain teams if I didn't like the way they were playing going into the series etc.

[DeHoyos]

Theres a guy on another forum that has been betting home favorites not to get swept for a long time. His criteria are
1. First game the home team has to be favored by at least -140
2. The team must have won at least 2 of their last 3 games
His record was 80-1 last year with the loss coming on Philadelphia. I think the Phillies could have been filtered out with the way they were playing at home. I think I would still not bet certain teams if I didn't like the way they were playing going into the series etc.

yeah but 80 isnt enough wins...

214-0 on these teams if you look at it that way....

We know who the top 3 and bottom 3 are....

[stingyrivers]

214 - 0 was 6 decent teams and 5 bad teams last year....

in order to play 214, you need to play about 9 series a week... so it is pushing the envelope a little bit...

I like the filtering that dude uses... it pretty much is making sure you got your ace going and your team is running good.... I think if you screened out opponents that are better than .500 that in itself would eliminate a major chunk of any losses...

Philly at home is a bit of an enigma, but I chalk that up to their crappy bullpen and a playing at a park where one swing of the bat by the other team with all the homers there can end a game....

I bet you if you used only teams with a top 5 bullpen it would have amazing results too.... there are so many good filters to use, the key is grouping a few together and justifying using that list

[DeHoyos]

Or what about 1st 5 innings????

with only top 25 pitchers you could get some nice results..
based on the likelihood that 4 or 5 in a row would not be outclassed through 5...
atleast you could play Grienke....

[stingyrivers]

I thought about that for a bit.... hadnt tested it yet... but it seemed like it was almost the same thing... I think probably if you cant trust the teams bullpen enough to play the full game, it probably shouldnt be a play in the first place... also, generally the juice on that play is a lot higher than the line on the full game, and a lot of books make it a 4 and a half inning bet, so the home team doesnt bat in the 5th in the bet regardless of the score

[DeHoyos]

That could be the best way to win a Grienke saga before it begins!!!!!!

Or atleast bow out before the final curtain...

[stingyrivers]

I wish the backtesting on this was easier, I would love to see the results for every team with a .550 win pct at home against any team that is under .500.... I would bet that is likely undefeated for years and years

[DeHoyos]

Whats Grienke's 5 inning record i dare you!!!!!

[stingyrivers]

I bet you it isnt as good as you think it is the royals cant score runs they lost 10 in a row with him on the hill last year, I think you would have profited fading him all year

[DeHoyos]

Alright he was 18-11

Grienke is overrated he gave up alot of those 5 inning losses lmfao


On November 17, 2009, Greinke won the American League Cy Young Award.[1] Greinke credited some of his performance to his use of "modern pitching metrics" — statistics on team defense and defense independent pitching statistics — to calibrate his own approach to pitching. Greinke specifically mentioned "FIP" (fielding independent pitching), an indicator developed by sabermetrician Tom Tango, as his favorite statistic. "That's pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible."[9]

[G's pks]

There's a guy on another forum that has been betting home favorites not to get swept for a long time. His criteria are:
1. First game the home team has to be favored by at least -140
2. The team must have won at least 2 of their last 3 games
His record was 80-1 last year with the loss coming on Philadelphia. I think the Phillies could have been filtered out with the way they were playing at home. I think I would still not bet certain teams if I didn't like the way they were playing going into the series etc.

Exactly there are several versions of this. I believe without going into the database I keep that the Phillies were swept more than once. I remember the 4 game sweep at home vs the Rockies because it is what caused me to make adjustments last year...I lost that series too.

[G's pks]

I would focus more on how a team is playing, make sure the team you bet on always has the hitting and pitching advantage in the series. I would not focus in on one or two pitchers... Just like any sport strong versus weak will usually pay off in a three game series.

[stingyrivers]

good points guys... hoyos grienke isnt overrated, just trapped in baseball hell.... he would win 22 on just about any other team....

I see this as a system in flux throughout the season too... would be nice to have a list of guidelines like that ready for Sunday and then make assessments week by week on strong plays....

overall, I hate the idea of chasing, but love the aspect on betting against a superior team losing three in a row with every advantage against an inferior team... it is very much up the alley of how I wager in general

[DeHoyos]

We should just go with the top6 bot5 and navigate around the sweeps with a few less wins....

Nobody can guarantee 200-0.....

But I will have my 50K....Oh yes, I will......

[stingyrivers]

I think no matter how you slice it, at most in doing this you would only have a two losses or in that area... G, what was your series record last year on just those plays? against home sweeps

[DeHoyos]

Since the record was 214-0...what if you expanded to top8 and bot7??????

And if losses occurred why did they occur????


bottom Line home sweeps are solid avoid the few sweeps and progress to 50K call me up when you land and we'll go throw the dice.....



We're gettin good at this conversation thing....

[DeHoyos]

Let's make a home sweeps calendar...

lmao


Sting you still there????

[DeHoyos]

Check this out....

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100331&content_id=9033978&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

The Mets management wouldnt look to good if they got swept by the fish lmfao....

[DeHoyos]

You would have Tommy Hanson at home vs. Randy Wells in the 4th game of a chase on ATL...hmmmm...i can live with that lmao....


Ewww and gm3 of your BOS chase looks horrid with Aroid having 4 dingers and Tex having 2 on Lackey....


WainwrightVCueto gm3 STL nice....

PeavyVCarmona sounds good for gm3 CWS...