At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

[stingyrivers]

this system has become my life of course I am still here and I am digging the conversations....

I can tell you one thing, Boston vs NYY isnt a great matchup for this, but Boston will not get swept... they may lose 2 of 3, and very likely game one, but no sweep there....

thing to remember is, it is a long long season.... it is good to exclude marginal plays and ones on the fence, because we got all summer long to accumulate wins.... over a 1000 series on the season, just gotta find the 200 or so that wont sweep out of the thousand....

if we have to think to long about a series, that in itself probably makes it a good no play

good picks would win in game one or two 90 percent of time, so usually we shouldnt have to sweat a game three if we do it right

[DeHoyos]

right

[stingyrivers]

In week one, I really think Philly at Wash and CWS vs. clev are near locks not to get swept

[DeHoyos]

Have you noticed how many weak #2 starters are goin April 6th??/


Weaver is goin for LAA?? lmfao....

[DeHoyos]

PHI Doc
LAD Padilla
CWS Buerhle
ARZ Haren

Should all be game1 winners imo.....

[illfuuptn]

You sir, are an idiot. This is a losing system and I suggest you stop right now. You think the fact that these teams are good at home isn't incorporated into the moneyline? So you have no edge there. And if you tell me you do then please bet single units on every individual home game for these teams this year and I'll give you 500k if you win. You are basically going to the blackjack table and martingaling until you win. I'm not surprised you've won to this point because most of the time you're gonna walk out of that blackjack room with a profit, but just a few bad days and you're toast! Quit now and run. Variance has treated you well thus far, but I wouldn't test it.

[stingyrivers]

I did actually.... LAD have a weird rotation too... I think how they round out spring training affects how they start the rotation in the opening week, so some teams may not be starting out with their aces first.... that makes week one tougher.... I was also thinking about the weather change for these guys in the first couple weeks... they have been playing for 2 months in sun and 80 degree weather... a lot of series next week will be in chilly 50 degree night air... wonder if that can screw things up.... I know the opener in Boston it should be a chill in the air and high 50's tops... plus it has been raining for a over a week up here, so it could be a little drizzly or wet

[stingyrivers]

illfuptn, your message makes little sense but I understand what your point is... unfortunately like most jerks you want to comment without reading what you need to know to base commentary on... what are you talking about you are surprised it has survived so far... the line accounting for home field advantage makes little difference based on the chase.... and the chase is capped.... and the overall record on this over at least four years of sample size shows a profit... go be a genius somewhere else... what difference to you does it make how others decide to wager....

thanks for your priceless advice though

[stingyrivers]

this isnt blackjack... btw, martingaling blackjack is a losing propostion because in one hand you are 46 percent to win... I believe your odds on not getting swept with a superior team over an inferior team in a three game series may be a tad higher than 46%... ya think? we are not betting on a 50/50 here with a chase, if it were even close to that I wouldnt even consider it

[DeHoyos]

Well said....


100th post well spent...

[illfuuptn]

So what you're saying is every game you're betting is profitable?

[DeHoyos]

He's saying the odds increase game by game....

[stingyrivers]

lol... thanks, I dont understand peoples need to do that all over this forum, you would think we were wagering with each others money... he has no vested interest in this thread or anything we do, yet they come in with such an axe to grind type of approach... what I dont get, is if they are so sure we are going to lose, all they have to do is thank the heavens for reading the thread, remain silent, fade us all year and get rich...

[DeHoyos]

This would not be a forum without it so I just move foward....

[stingyrivers]

dude, we are making one bet.... yes, it turns out to be three... but essentially we are making one bet in three increments that a team wont get swept laying essentially 15 to 1 odds on that bet.... we are making a series bet, not betting home favs expecting that to turn out to be a winner longrun

[DeHoyos]

I'm awake now....

All this dro I'm smoking is hurting my bankroll....

[stingyrivers]

in other words, seeing as you seem to have a statistical handle... if you can tell me the true odds on our selections are worse than 15-1, in the long run this loses, if you cant, there is only one way to find out

[DeHoyos]

*Starts engine*

[stingyrivers]

hoyos, I like those four you put out there... I am weakest on LAD, but still cant see Pitt winning all three... I think the early weeks fading the crap teams on the road is going to be stronger plays....

and save that bankroll bro, gonna be a long season

[DeHoyos]

Yeah you got a DoublePlay on that LAD series

[stingyrivers]

doubleplay?

[DeHoyos]

Pitt is on the road....

oh nvm

[DeHoyos]

Either way LAD aint gettin swept...

[DeHoyos]

Any thoughts on FiFi Vs. Sheets????

Also I think a case can be made for TX not to be swept with all the construction going on across the street....


I was there when they broke ground....

These first few games are huge....

[illfuuptn]

lol I love how dumb you guys are. So you think that every time your team loses, it has a better chance to win the next game. Haha ok, first of all if this is true, the difference probably accounts for 5 cents in the moneyline when it's the last game of the series, which means dime line bettors have 0% E.V.at least it's not negative). So again, if it's so plus EV(which it isn't) to bet teams to win after they lose then why don't you bet these teams straight up with no martingale after every loss? "Oh, the Red Sox lost yesterday, they must be more of a favorite to win today than the moneyline suggests. Guess I'll bet it.) gl with that big timer! BTW I don't want to fade you. I want to bet against you. Any thread on here where someone will escrow? Because I don't want to make $, I want to take stringrivers' $.

[stingyrivers]

oh yeah thats right... LAD as a top team and Pitt as a bottom team.... the only thing is it is at Pitt, so that probably takes away from the doubleplay aspect...

I was going with the home teams only aspect of this, but it seems like there will be a lot of series like the Philly one and Lad one this week that are very solid, and it doesnt make sense to leave what looks like winners out there, ust because it isnt a home series

[bozeman]

curious how the system will work this year

[stingyrivers]

take my money jerk... I dont do the gamblers fallacy... so the answer is no.... I really wish you would try to understand the play here before you criticize it...

answer this.... Philly at Washington this week.... Washington sweeping Philly in that series... is it 15 -1 to happen or not.... higher or lower....

because I am going to be laying 15 -1 odds that Philly dont get swept.... if you can tell me that Washington is 14 -1 to sweep that series or 10 -1 then I am making a bad bet with a negative EV....

If you cant tell me that.... then the proof will be in the pudding this year and not your attempt to preach

[DeHoyos]

You Hang em





WE Bang em

[stingyrivers]

in other words.... seeing as you are so gung ho about this... if you want to bet with me... I am laying 15 to win 1 that philly doesnt get swept, do you want the other side of that action?

[DeHoyos]

To me STL is stronger than LAD as far as road teams.....

[DeHoyos]

I'm as cool as the other side of the pillow taking that action...

[illfuuptn]

What? Assuming philly will be an average of -250(just guessing) over 3(?) games then the odds of them being swept is probably like 2.7%...what's your point?

[stingyrivers]

yeah there is just something with that LAD/Pitt series that doesnt sit well with me, I think I will be passing on that one too... there are some other decent options, doesnt make sense to force plays just because itis a so called good team... Lad has a lot to prove this year

[stingyrivers]

the point is.... you said it yourself... on these plays we are about 3% to lose the bet... 3 % seems like a very feasible number to dodge for 5 months doesnt it?