At least ONE home series win 364-13 record

[DeHoyos]

400 to start... 20 dollar unit... up unit by 50% after every twenty wins



20 wins 800 roll new unit 30

40 wins 1400 roll new unit 50

60 wins 2400 roll new unit 80

80 wins 4000 roll new unit 120

100 wins 6400 roll new unit 200

120 wins 10400 roll new unit 300

140 wins 16400 roll new unit 400

160 wins 24400 roll new unit 600

180 wins 36400 roll new unit 800

200 wins 52400 roll congratulations your sportsbook just cut you off

now we just need 200 straight wins... but it did happen last year

This is our plan....

[stingyrivers]

and I was choosing not to stoop to your ridiculous level... because it really puzzles me what all you haters are so pissed off about... I take up your challenge and I garuntee you if I dont lose a series, I will make more than you....

you see, when you choose to come into a thread and go out of your way to bash someone, you really should read the whole thread....

I garuntee you if I dont lose a series, I will make a lot more than you this year.... based on how I plan to manage the wagering to capitalize on a perfect run...

[illfuuptn]

gl stingy. have fun. that's all that'll be left when the money's gone. BTW wanna play me in poker? I'd love to take your money.

[illfuuptn]

omfg lol you wont lose a series? hahahahahhhahahaahhahahahahahahahhahahah hahahahhaa omg I'm actually on the ground laughing my dick off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DeHoyos]

So you rule out anything involving a martingale?????

[illfuuptn]

So you rule out anything involving a martingale?????

If your stupid little system was actually a winning system then that means that some or all of the games you are betting are +EV to be betting. So it makes no sense to martingale when you could just straight bet every game that has value. Basically, I think you guys think because a team loses they have added value in the next game. So why not bet the games only after they lose? But the truth is, they don't have added value because they lost. The books pretty much get it right.

[DeHoyos]

got some more numbers for you guys.... it seems we all had a general consensus on the teams... as far as three from each side of the fence...

TB, NYY, BOS and fading Pitt, Wash and KC

at least that is what I am strongly leaning toward... is anyone else a little worried about the idea of going with three from the same division??

at any rate, here is the past three seasons for each of these 6 teams respectively... in short, if you manage your bankroll properly, this sample size is probably big enough to show, you should end up with at the least a modest profit doing this.... for simplicity sake, I used the goal of winning 10 dollars per series, and assume an average of laying -150 odds on each bet.... this means a win would be 10 and a losing series would be a 150 loss... so for each year, I put the net gain based on that... Also, these records are from opening day until september 1 for each year

NYY

2009- 19 - 0 (+190)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 59 - 2 (+290)


Boston

2009- 19 - 0 (+190)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 19 - 0 (+190)

3 yr total 57 - 1 (+420)

TBay

2009- 18 - 0 (+180)

2008- 22 - 0 (+220)

2007- 20 - 3 (-250)

3 yr total 60 - 3 (+150) ** in all fairness, TB would not have been selected in 2007, they were a bottom of the league team, pre- Longoria, Pena and the young guns in the staff

3 best team 3 yr total 176 - 6 (+860)


Washington

2009- 20 - 0 (+200)

2008- 20 - 1 (+50)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 61 - 2 (+310)


Pitt

2009- 21 - 0 (+210)

2008- 19 - 1 (+40)

2007- 18 - 2 (-120)

3 yr total 58 - 3 (+130)


KC

2009- 20 - 0 (+200)

2008- 17 - 3 (-280)

2007- 21 - 1 (+60)

3 yr total 58 - 4 (-20)


those are the past three years for these 6 teams for and against... this tells me that... If you avoid a sweep all year, you have a huge year... if you get hit by one sweep, you show a modest profit on the season... if you catch 2 sweeps you break even - juice essentially... and if you get 3 or 4 sweeps you lose money... in other words, I think this would be an at worst break even system year in and year out if you are doing your homework, and if you have a year like last year, you have a big year... I still like it, and our chances... if we want a huge year, we just have to avoid a sweep happening, we use the core system, but that is probably where some in the moment filters come in

Numbers dont always lie.......

[stingyrivers]

martingales are a negative ev plan in the longrun.... most gamblers who know what they are doing dont play with a martingale....

there will be a thread started on sunday if you want to step up to the plate.... and I would play you in poker anyday of the week... you seem to think that your arrogance will make people bow to you... wrong... I think I have been around the block a few more times than you.... so any challenge you put out there... you have a taker...

of course that means you actually have to show up

[stingyrivers]

he has no answer to the fact that it is clearly shown you could have easily gone through last season without a loss... he cant respond to that because it takes away from him being able to knock everything about this plan

[DeHoyos]

[illfuuptn]

martingales are a negative ev plan in the longrun.... most gamblers who know what they are doing dont play with a martingale....

there will be a thread started on sunday if you want to step up to the plate.... and I would play you in poker anyday of the week... you seem to think that your arrogance will make people bow to you... wrong... I think I have been around the block a few more times than you.... so any challenge you put out there... you have a taker...

of course that means you actually have to show up

OMG ok you play on fulltilt?

[DeHoyos]

I say you make a series bet.....

[stingyrivers]

generally pokerstars.... save your money... why do you come into threads and make insinuations and assumptions about people you have never met? if anything that is fairly stupid... I garuntee you that I knew more about gambling systems, theorhetical odds and martingales before you even placed your first bet.... so you should really chill out... and if you know it all, just go win your millions.... there are particular reasons why I am trying the things I am trying now.... and your opinion and knowledge, which I already have myself, really doesnt impact my decision on how to bet baseball this year

[DeHoyos]

This is my record when betting to win 2 units ($200) on at least one home series win using the martingale system. The teams I used had the best home records over the past couple of years. BOS, NYY, MINN, CWS, LAD, LAA, PHI, and TB. The 13 indicates a sweep at home by the visitors and I only use 3 and 4 game home stands. Dollar figure +$54000 over 2 years. I started with $10000 but the bigger the bank roll, the more units you may want to go after. Next year I will double to 4 units. Also, I found that 8 out of 10 home series that start off with a win, have one more before the end of the series. Keep that in mind if you want to make a few more bucks on a series but I only do this when there are back to back home stands just in case there isnt a second win in the series, then I carry it over to the next home stand. Don't do this very often with a team that has more home sweeps in the past. Later and good luck.

Are you tellin me spankymythighs is an idiot also???????

[stingyrivers]

lol... that is telling isnt it.... he is knocking the hell about the theory behind this... but he wont take the series bet... no way in hell he wants to take Washington to sweep Philly against me... but somehow us taking Philly not to get swept is a dumb bet...

[DeHoyos]

Not much risk. Like I said before, if you played BOS, TB, CWS, NYY, LAD, and LAA over the past 2 years your record would be 276-6 for at least 1 home win per home series. Let me break the 6 sweeps down:

2 by BOS July 28, 29, 30 2008 and Sept 28, 29, 30
Odds for BOS -166 -121 -173 -203 -225 +145

LAD had one on May 9, 10, 11 2008 Odds -184 -168 and -138

TB had one on Sept 4, 5, 6 2009 Odds -120 -185 and -116

CWS had one on Sept 21, 22, 23 2009 Odds +113 -153 and -127

NYY had one on Apr 29, 30 and May 1 2008 Odds -135 -127 and -110

So you average $2500 loss on a series sweep give or take x 6 = -$15000
but your gains are 276 x $200 = +$55200 - 15000 = $40200 profit in 2 years. Not bad. What do you guys think?

Not bad....

[illfuuptn]

Listen, if this system is a winner, then that means there are games in there that are +EV. So you need to find the games that are profitable and bet them(kind of like a normal person). The reason why some of these games may be +EV is because of people betting on the team going for the sweep. This makes your line more favorable. John Morrison had a system last year that had you betting on teams that had lost and not covered 3 weeks straight in the NFL. This system actually worked because people bet against the bad team causing a shift in the line, which made betting the underdog good. If this system actually wins, then imagine how much more you could win if you just bet the right games instead of chasing losses like some loon.

[illfuuptn]

lol... that is telling isnt it.... he is knocking the hell about the theory behind this... but he wont take the series bet... no way in hell he wants to take Washington to sweep Philly against me... but somehow us taking Philly not to get swept is a dumb bet...

Of course I'm not taking your stupid bet. 15-1 are you kidding me? Do you have a fulltilt account? I sense that you are afraid to play me

[DeHoyos]

I sense that you wouldnt be willing to bet against Philly after a gm1 loss.....

[illfuuptn]

I sense that you wouldnt be willing to bet against Philly after a gm1 loss.....

I'd only bet if it was smart to do so based on coordination of handicappers' picks and public trends that influence the line. Guess that's why I make money instead of sailing on a boat with a hole in it.

[illfuuptn]

fulltilt account? Somebody's afraid to play me.....It's okay if you have a small penis man, just say that.

[DeHoyos]

Soemone call Michael Jack Corbin in here!!!!!

Get that **********r in here......Right Now!!!!!!!

That *********r.....Nicky!!!!nicky!!!!!!!!

[stingyrivers]

I didnt say at 15 -1 .... how about 25 to 1.... based on your own numbers those are fair odds... you put me at 4 % to lose, so washington sweeps I pay you 25 to your 1.... Philly wins a game, you pay me one to my 25... that is extremely fair, but you still wont take the bet... because you know there is no value in Washington on that wager.... so if there is no value on Washington to sweep, I ask you, where is the value

anyway, I never said you dont have valid points... like the one you just made... but if it is a winning system, which the numbers show it is... it isnt lunacy to do it this way, because then you dont have to hunt pick and guess on which games in the series are the games with value that make the whole thing + EV, we can just play it this way and let the profit show up at the end.... a matter of preference really...

In my opinion, it has value in general because we are betting against an event happening that rarely happens.... kind of like when you push a dude all in because you flopped a set on his top pair.... why are you trying to get him all in in that hand after the flop? oh because you are 97% to win.... and that its the +EV thing to do.... kind of like Philly not getting swept by the nats.... I am all in.... and if the nats go runner runner boat.... I wont kick myself for the play, just like you wouldnt when he outdraws your mid set....

[Stifler]

calm down ladies and concentrate on the facts.

btw i have a fulltilt acc :]

[DeHoyos]

calm down ladies and concentrate on the facts.

btw i have a fulltilt acc :]

Who cares about poker...Take the Nats to sweep...Do it!!!!!

[illfuuptn]

LMFAO at your attempt to talk poker. I'll play you at 1-2 HUNL on fulltilt. I bet you don't even know what that is. Go into the system and see if the teams are beating the moneyline on the 3rd game of the series. If so, then you have a favorable situation due to public betting. But you're a cockmuncher so you can't understand what I'm talking about. And as for your bet, I think the phillies will be about an average of -220 so I'll take 30-1

[stingyrivers]

dude you are an asshole you are right I dont know what heads up no limit is.... I have a law degree schmuck, did you even graduate highschool... or actually how are the community college classes going... as you can tell I tried to be civil, and it is clear that you are just a low life... so take the bet, or post your picks... show the world you are the genius you think you are... I really dont care... I stopped trying to win pissing contests like this when I was about your age... so screw... have you even played at a B & M yet... if you know what that is.... because I have played poker in about 10 different cities.... and probably have about 10 more years in the game than you do...

[DeHoyos]

Mills Lane needs ta put a stop to this....

[illfuuptn]

lol I don't play douchebag poker. I play real poker. Lets go. Are you backing down? How much $ do you have as a poker bankroll? I bet it's ****ing pathetic. I have 15K right now in my fulltilt account. And I'm willing to risk it all against you.

[illfuuptn]

p.s. I go to UF, getting my undergrad. I'm 18. Guess that makes me less of a person than you right?

[stingyrivers]

Im done with it... I guess the only thing to do now is win all year... to show the geniuses on here that they dont know everything... thanks for the incentive brother... fuel to the fire has become tedious but much needed actually, I was getting a little jaded and tired... check on here all year for the thread it will be here... and if you take the Philly/Washington bet, I am sure you want to cap your loss on it so what is the max bet??

[DeHoyos]

Who cares if you'll win at poker what the hell is this??....I'll beat you in a game of one-on-one basketball in my church socks...but who cares?????

[stingyrivers]

no... definitely doesnt make you less of a person than me... but it certainly explains a lot about how you interact with people... get the degree, in fact, get a couple... you seem like an intelligent kid for 18, take it from someone who used to be in your shoes, it doesnt mean you need to be a prick to people... of course you probably wont realize that until you are my age

[DeHoyos]

I say you bet on what will win more money this season... this system or your posted plays.....

[DeHoyos]

It's like your arguing with yourself 15 years ago Sting.....