CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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Rest in the sky Frank Robinson

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The BIG BOARD has been updated with a few surprises

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UNFILTERED 4/9/25

Basically I am going to make moves on all of the teams that are in jeopardy of being swept with full game moves and simultaneously attempting to not spend over -140 vigorously. So that means I will take a few hits making RL move-however it is in the spirit of a long season's returns. These are all FULL GAME moves

Wanderers+130 Mahle
Bombers-1.5 +115 RL Fried
Fish+1.5 -115 RL Meyer
Dodgers-1.5 -110 RL Knack
Twinkies-110 Ryan
Red Sox-130 Houck
Rox+1.5 -130 RL Senzatela
Rays-140 Pepiot


Other moves

Astronauts (Brown) OVER 7.5 K's +115
Pale Hose+140 ML FF Burke
Red Leggins+120 ML FF Martinez

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There are enough teams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow to not have to do any homework. Just runlines and fun times

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Ah damn...another managerial decision cost me. Gillespie gets pulled with a 2-2 score through 4 frames and got pulled. Then Faucher here comes in for relief and immediately gives up two runs in the bottom of the 5th. I hate it when coaches do that

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Guys you don't have to go strictly DM when you have questions. I don't bite LOL!

Ok so a reader wants to know more about the Fish/Metropolitans moves and also why i am not as detailed as I was on the thread from last year.

First things first

Here's Holmes historic line vs the Fish

24 AB; 8K; 3BB; .333 AVG, .407 OBP; .333 SLG; .741 OPS

Here's Gillespie's history vs Metropolitans

20 AB; 7K; 0BB, .200 AVG; .200 OBP; .350 SLG; .550 OPS

Holmes HH % this season 37.9%; Gillespie's 41.7 (not much difference)
Holmes K% this season 21.7%; Gillespie's 23.3% (not much difference)

Holmes BB% 13.9%; Gillespie's 9.3%

Holmes whiff% 16.9; Gillespie's 25.4%

The only stat where Holmes is better than Gillespie is the flyball vs groundballs where Holmes has a GB% of 69.0% and Gillespie 34.5% and flyballs Holmes 3.4% and Gillespie 20.7. However the weather in the Bronx is going to be COLD with a high of 44degrees so there's that.

Ad for all of the money that he is paid Juan Soto only has 10% barrels this season. there are 6 players on the Fish with higher barrel percentage than him right now! If not for Pete Alonso the Metropolitans would be having all kinds of issues.

Part two

It's the silence that I enjoy about posting here-it's also the reason why I don't go as much into detail. grecycle99 doesn't interact much either and his system is killing it

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The Blunts beat the Dodgers in a series. Now comes the reality that our hero can shut them down. Chris Sale has had 78 at bats vs the Blunts. he has k'd up 35 of those. That's ownership. Aces gonna ace

Skenes is great when the Buccos need him to be; and against Sonny he will deliver. Dude's given up only 3.4% barrels so far this season, Roll with him AND Sonny Gray-just not in THIS platform


Ragans-Aces gonna ace

Crochet-Aces gonna ace

Peralta has K'd up 44.7% of the Rox he has faced. Aces gonna ace (even at Coors Field) NEXT

Keep riding the Roupp train until the wheels fall off. As the proud manager that I am to have drafted him when no one else even thought about it-I am set up for continual large paydays reminiscent of a few years back when I drafted Spencer Strider before anyone even knew who he was. I purchased my 4 Runner courtesy of Strider that season. I see more of the same with this guy-he's got electric stuff

Besides- I need some magic CRUMBS. Most of the aces are owned high as hell so there won't be much fantasy profit at all

Connor Gillespie? I mean Holmes isn't a -200 pitcher to begin with and Gillespie gives me an opportunity to be on the 99% of collections

4/8/25 FILTERED


Rot.#905 Fish+0.5 +140 Gillespie (1%)
Rot.#905 Fish Team Total OVER 3.5 +185
Rot.#918 Red Sox-130 FF RL Crochet#2 (99%)
Rot.#922 Royals-135 ML FF Ragans#5 (99%)
Rot.#908 Braves-125 ML FF Sale#4 (99%)2 UNITS
Rot.#925 Wanderers/Cubs OVER4.5 100 FF Corbin#29 DNS/Taillon#21
Rot.#909 Brews (Peralta#12 (95%)) OVER K's -140
Rot.#912 Giants-135 FF ML Roupp#16 (7%) CRUMBS POD
Rot.#930 A's+0.5 -125FF RL Springs#17 (37%)

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Damn... the Fish took out Bellozo with the score 1-0 in the 5th. Why? Coaches decisions will lose a move faster than anything

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Berrios got subbed in for Lucas-so make sure to get your money back for that move from your book as the LISTED are not facing one another

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Landen Roupp (Giants) will be the CRUMBS POD Streamer for tomorrow. He's only on 7% of rosters so a nice 93% share is a distinct possibility.

So blast away with him on all platforms, 10 teamer and 12 teamers especially

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Massive schedule tomorrow full of oodles of value. It's like poker. You play multiple hands all day and night. You won't win every hand. Poker isn't designed that way. You will literally fold more than you win. But when you do win you want it to be epic and stack those chips. Chris Sale to the rescue boys

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Bellozo is so cold blooded that there isn't even a K's line for him-yet the FF is lined at 4. I took the 3.5 because I always try to avoid vigorous as a preference,

Because of the weak hitting shown by the Sailors-some of the boys in the discord were looking at Wesneski as their potential POD until I pointed out that against the Sailors he has a poor line of .375 AVG; .444 OBP; .625 SLG; and 1.069 OPS-which his almost at the golden 1.100 that I like to take an opposing team total to go over.

Zach Eflin has a weird stat of K'ing up 39.2% of the Snakes batters that he has faced over 51 at bats with a .176 AVG and .423 OPS and .216 SLG. It's weird. Gallen of course has stellar numbers vs the orioles and any team for that matter-still Eflin's numbers are a tad better so the juice is worth the squeeze.

Easton Lucas is the pride and joy of the Jays farm system and he gets the start today. I drafted him during the off season (of course no one paid that any mind while making NBA moves) and have him raring to go with a neat 100% share at stake. I seriously doubt that he goes the full 5 frames but there's always a good chance right? Who doesn't like volume money?

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FILTERED FOR 4/7/25

First off I drafted Valente Bellozo (Fish) appearing on 0% of rosters) and also Easton Lucas (Jays) also appearing on 0% of rosters.

Should either of those two go f or 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio I will be a happy man even if I lose each and every other move for today. The potential share percentage of a 100% is ignorant


3:00 Rot.#960 Tigers+130 FF ML Mize#19 DNS (15% of rosters)
6:30 Rot.#961 Jays+115 FF ML Lucas (DRAFT 0% of rosters)
7:00 Rot.#955 Fish/Metropolitans UNDER 3.5 +115 Bellozo (DRAFT 0% rosters)/Senga#6
7:30 Rot.#968 Wanderers+110 FF ML Eovaldi#1
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles+120 FF ML Eflin#12 (71% of rosters)
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles (Eflin#12) OVER 4.5 +100 K's
9:30 Rot.#957 Red Leggins+128 FF ML Greene#3 (94% rosters)
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors-0.5 -105 FF RL Gilbert#2 9
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors Gilbert OVER 6.5 K's +105 (K's up 40% of HOU bats)

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Use this instead

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Don't use this boys-you will lose lightning fast

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I am not saying that I am the cause of this-I did tear up the Hard Rock sportsbook with moves on pitcher's K's last season and there ae individuals in my league who are cozy with some of the higher ups there-but the numbers that they are offering for K's is ridiculous. Like Alcantara is over 4.5 K's -170. As likely as it is to happen-I ain't putting that type of risk on any move for MLB. I already spoke on Glasnow's number. Looks like I will have to go with my non name brand selections for K's which suits me just fine

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Glasnow is OVER 6.5 K's -155. Those who know how I get down obviously know that i don't make many moves over -135 and this won't be one of them. Big board will be updated with this move as a scratch

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In the event that Kyle Finnegan is named as the starter for the Nats tomorrow I will be on that too as a live underdog at +0.5 FF

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FILTERED FOR 4/6/25

CRUMBS POD Giants (Jordan Hicks) (16% rostership)


1:30 Rot.#911 Pale Hose +180 FF ML Perez 2 UNITS (7% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#923 Jays/Mets OVER 4.5 +110 FF Francis#12/Peterson#15 1 UNIT
1:30 Rot.#922 Buccos+130 FF ML Heaney (DNS) 1 UNIT (3% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#901 Fish+125 FF ML Alcantara#4 1 UNIT (89% rostership)
1:30 Rot.#903 Dodgers (Glasnow#1) OVER K's SCRATCH NO MOVE ON THIS
2:00 Rot.#913 Astronauts-105 FF ML Blanco 2 UNITS (60% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#916 Royals-115 FF ML Bubic 2 UNITS (19% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#907 Red Leggins/Brews OVER 4.5 -110 FF Spiers (DNS)/Patrick (DNS)
4:00 Rot.#928 Sailors/Giants UNDER 3.5 +115 FF Woo#3/Hicks#7

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Ah there it is. Ok so the Astronauts was a bad beat (9 hits and 9 LOB) and so was the Blunts wit ha the bases jacked and no outs in the 5th and not getting a run. Have to look at those setbacks as collateral damage somewhat and move on to tomorrow. I have already mined it out. I am super proud of the Gators for making the NCAA final too!

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Marquez has 6 walks and it's the 6th frame-however the A's only have one run! What the heck is going on here?

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There may be a Kyle Finnegan sighting tomorrow for the Nats! That would be great since I have him stashed

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Damn-so Blunts with bases loaded and no outs don't score in the bottom of the 5th. This is turning out to be one of those days when you can do everything right and still be wrong...Pissers

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Holy smokes! Astronauts have 9 runners LOB and it's only the 7th frame! Egads!

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ADDED MOVE

Rot.#973 Cardinals+100 ML FF Pallante

Sometimes you have to go with the metrics and trust the process. Not that Pallante is great by any measure, but his hard hit % is 37.5% and Fitts is 40% ; Pallante whiffs are at 35.1% and swing % is 47.4%. Fitts has whiffs at 18.2% and a swing % of 62.0 which is the HIGHEST out of any starter. Gotta roll with the percentages and trust it will pan out

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Too bad Matthew Boyd has the Friars offense to contend with today-but it's in a home run suppressing park so he should be alright. I ranked him at #17 today-but he has only 9% ownership by managers so it's a decent sized payday should he do what he does. His hard hit rate is only 21.4% which is EXCELLENT

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Ok so the big board has been updated

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I haven't figured out how i will use Reese Olson yet. Since my principle is to not make a move over -135 it may be difficult to find a decent price for him. His K% was at 21.7% last season so that may be the way to go. Let me sleep on it

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4/5/25


First of all I blasted away on Colin Rea (Cubs) who has 0% rostership. Translated if/when he gets a spot start for the Cubs and does well I stand to make a cut of a 100% share

Secondly the CRUMBS POD Streamer of the day for Saturday is Reese Olson (Tigers). It's the Pale Hose and he has only a 20% use rate. He is highly capable of giving me the 5 frames and 3/1 that I need to keep the chunks of money rolling in even on days that are subpar for conventional moves

Bailey Ober has a ghastly 1.207 OPS against the Astronauts-time for a team total

Roki Sasaki has a 19.5%K rate and 24% whiff rate compared to Nola's 34.8% K rate and 31.8% whiff rate and even worse a 68% barrels and 89% hard hit rate. Are you serious?

All you need to know is that Bailey Falter has a 1.152 OPS vs the Bombers-oh my. And then in the other corner we have Marcus Stroman who I have demoted down to DNS status and has a line of 80 AB; 12K; 6 BB; .338 AVG, .384 OBP; .425 SLG; .809 OPS vs the Buccos.

Despite less than stellar K-rates and whiff rates Bassitt and Canning have been able to neutralize the opposing teams hitters. It's cringe worthy weird

Brady Singer with the 33.3% K rate and 34.9 % whiff rate to go along with a sterling .160 AVG, .276 OBP, .280 SLG and .556 OPS vs a DNS arm-in what looks to be a bullpen game? I will take my chances on Singer and his mitt popping 4 seamer.

What do you get when you have two DNS (DO NOT START) facing one another in Coors Field? You get the 27th ranked and 22nd ranked arms. Sears K% is 28 to go along with a 24.4% whiff rate and 16.7% barrels and a hard hit % of 44.4? Marquez has a 18.8% K and 22.2% whiff rate. The ball's gonna be in play A LOT! I will come along and fill in the prices once they become available-but for now it's important to get the A's/Rox total in BEFORE it goes up

Rot.#963 Astronauts+100 FF ML Arrighetti
Rot.#963 Astronauts Team Total OVER 3.5 -110
Rot.#954 Blunts-130 FF ML Nola 2 UNITS
Rot.#971 Bombers/Buccos OVER 5.5 +110 FF
Rot.#971 Bombers Team Total OVER 5.5 +115
Rot.#976 Jays/Metropolitans UNDER 4.5 -135 FF
Rot.#957 Red Leggins-115 FF ML Singer 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 A's/.Rox OVER 9 -115
Rot.#962 Tigers (Olson) OVER 5.5 K's +120

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BUY TIME

10 Teamers

Austin Wells-C (Bombers)
Lars Nootbar OF (Cardinals)
Kristian Campbell 2B (Red Sox)
Victor Scott OF (Cardinals)

12 Teamers

Wilyer Abreu OF (Red Sox)
Spencer Torkelson 1B (Tigers)
Tyler Soderstrom 1B (A's)
Otto Lopez (2B, 3B (Fish)

Sell

10 Teamers

Triston Casas 1B (Red Sox)
Nolan Arenado 3B (Cardinals) I caught heat over this one in the discord


12 Teamers

Nolan Jones OF (Guardians)
David Hamilton 2B/SS (Red Sox)

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Not that anyone gives a damn but I found out through my data mining that my best way of getting wins in this format are to stick to the FF and avoid late game bullpen collapses.

1) Follow my streamers for CRUMBS POD some sort of way be it either with K's or a side ONLY and not to mix in any other move on a POD game

2) Make moves on team totals for teams that have a 1.100 or more for an OVER and less than .400 for an UNDER

3) Always make a move on an arm that I have ranked higher than the favorite as an underdog; either RL (at less than -130) or a ML

4) Avoid buying ANYTHING over -135-even if it results in a loss from making a RL move it pays off over the course of a season

5) Only make a full game move on a TOTAL

6) Only go for K's with arms that have a a 35% or more K rate and WHIFF rate of the same

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Tyler Mahle#16 (Wanderers) is on only 2% of rosters facing Zack Littell #20; and the Wanderers have an OPS of 1.133 against him. Mahle has only faced 2 of the rays hitters so he will be abit of a mystery-let's hope it lasts long enough to get through those 5 frames and give me a sneaky good payday on a 98% share should he get the 3/1 to go along with it.

I have Fedde ranked at #19 and Beuhler at #22 so there's a higher dog, Nick Martinez is also a higher ranked dog.

Luzardo has a 50% K and 41.9% whiff rate. that's hard to ignore-even if it is against the Champs. Hey at least Freddy Freeman will be sitting this one out which may help matters some.

One of the ways that I found while data mining is to take the Team total OVER for teams with a 1.100 or more OPS against the pitcher that they are facing. This is true for Littell vs the Wanderers and for


Rot.#919 Cardinals+0.5 -120 FF RL Fedde (HD)
Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 +105 Megill 2 UNITS CRUMBS POD
Rot.#916 Wanderers Team Total OVER 4.5 +105
Rot.#909 Red Leggins-105 FF ML Martinez (HD)
Rot.#904 Blunts (Luzardo) OVER 5.5 K's -105
Rot.#916 Wanderers-0.5 -105 RL FF Mahle

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Still data mining this morning. I am looking to perfect the way that I intersect fantasy league baseball with traditional sides and totals moves. I am 3/4 of the way to looking over results both good and bad and in a few hours I should have my formula.

In the meantime one thing is for certain-my streamers of the day will stay intact and be a big part of how I operate going forward

Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 FF -105 Megill 2 UNITS

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Morton with the 10 K's and 2 BB over 5 frames! Excellent!

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Despite the runs surrendered(which mean absolutely nothing in my league) Charlie Morton is off to a 8 K 2 BB start and here he is in the 5th frame