CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

Metrpolitans+175 Tidwell
Orioles+1.5 -105 RL Sugano

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The Metropolitans are going to have a bullpen day against the Blunts and I like the element of surprise for that. No way should they be that big of an underdog coming in off of being swept by the Braves.

Also surprising is the Bombers being such a big favorite over the Orioles who are looking like the team that was in the playoffs last season. Sugano is your prototypical sinker ball pitcher who produces a lot of ground outs. Think Logan Webb before he introduced high sweepers to tunnel off of his sinker. And even with that Sugano has K'd up 38.4% of the Bombers hitters he has faced. The UNDER looks good and so do the Orioles at +1.5

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Ok that didn't take long.

CRUMBS POD Shane Baz (Rays)

Baz has leaned into a cutter and I love the pitcher he's turning into. On top of that is the Tigers coming in off of a double header with extra frames vs the Buccos with LATE altered travel.

Baz only has 38% rostership which is good but not great for the payout but substantial enough. I seriously doubt that he will out duel Jack Flaherty but anything is possible. All I want is my 5/3/1/K/W to get a share split of 62%. I am leaning heavily towards taking the Rays straight up too. Baz is dynamite in the +110 to -130 ratio at a crispy 12-0 streak

[atthehalf]

Sweet envelope coming this morning for Charlie Morton!

Cade Horton was swapped out for Matthew Boyd for the Cubs so I am actually in scramble mode now to find an arm to feature or the CRUMBS. I will be back with that in a few

[atthehalf]

No need to wait on this until tomorrow. The Buccos are heading home on a later flight than planned because of the extras against the Tigers with a rain delay and a double header at that. Then there's deGrom and his team just got swept by the Royals

Wanderers-1.5 -110 deGrom 2 UNITS

Also i have George Kirby ranked way higher than Matthew Boyd; and he's an underdog, and the Sailors rip up lefties on the road

Sailors+110 Kirby 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

damn...Thunder getting castrated....

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Rasmussen's fate is sealed and he is out of the game! Good stuff

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The Braves are trotting out Didier Fuentes tomorrow and I am overjoyed. I drafted him when I saw that he was a fast mover and was promoted to Double-A. Fuentes has seen his name pop up more and more in dynasty circles, and his promotion to Double-A was well deserved. The Braves are no stranger to promoting pitching prospects they believe in quickly through their system. The decision to promote Fuentes speaks volumes as to how the organization views him. He remains the second-best prospect in this system and a mid-tier pitching prospect for dynasty managers.

Translated-snap him up tonight if you already haven't

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Charlie Morton showing out- 5 frames 6K's and 0 walks. The only problem with this is he only has 62 pitches which means that he will in all likelihood go out for the 6th frame...piss. Head up he has better stats than Rasmussen who has 4 K's and 3 walks and is at 80 pitches. This is looking good for the bigger payout

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Damn the Buccos bullpen.... wow!

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For those who like NBA

Thunder-6 3 UNITS

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7:30 Orioles Charlie Morton OVER 5.5 K's -125
7:30 Orioles+120 Morton
10:00 A's+117 Lopez


TOTALS

7:30 Orioles/Rays UNDER 4.5 FF Morton/Rasmussen
10:00 Fathers/Dodgers UNDER 9 Bergert/Yamamoto 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

If this game gets under way I will be on the Orioles-it's raining sheets out here in Tampa right now tho

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SIDES

5:30 Buccos-132 Skenes
7:00 Braves-130 Strider 2 UNITS

TOTALS

5:30 Cardinals/Pale Hose UNDER 9 McGreevy/Vasil GAME 2
6:40 Blunts/Fish UNDER 7.5 Sanchez/Cabrera
7:00 Metropolitans/Braves UNDER 9 Holmes/Strider

[atthehalf]

Show of hands-how many of y'all would have taken the Pale Hose for the FF LOL!

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Load up on Cade Horton (Cubs) for tomorrow for the CRUMBS. Only 19% rostership and he has an arsenal that should work well against the Sailors bats. I'm excited to watch Horton develop this year with his cut-fastball and legit breakers. The Saiklors aren't enough of an obstacle to bench Horton

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Ok now for my CRUMBS POD. I like Edward Cabrera (Fish) but he keeps getting removed early which isn't good for my league. I need 5 frames no matter what in order to qualify for a payout.

So I am just gonna be ignorant with it today and take a guy that absolutely NOBODY wants to get my 5/3/1/K/W.

Charlie Morton (Orioles)...just hear me out on this. Against Rays hitters he has K'd up 27.5% with a .133 AVG with an average exit velo of just 88.9 MPH. Then his xwOBA is .317 on top of that. He only has (with good reason) 10% rostership. He's been better since returning to the rotation, but we all know how low the floor is. I just need him to be good TODAY and give me an opportunity at a share split on 90% and I can bring home close to 5 grand or more (if he has better stats straight up against Rasmussen) as Rasmussen has 80% of the pot and then there are the additional 10% of scragglers who drafted Rasmussen for today. Those guys are willfully dumb as they should have already had Rasmussen rostered up from day 1

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OMG the boos in Yankee Stadium are insane

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Oh wow! The Twinkies and the Red Leggins are blasting away! Well 0-1 to start the day with this one

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SIDES


2: 00 Pale Hose+0.5 FF-125 Burke
2:00 Brews+110 Peralta
4:00 Giants-1.5 +120 RL Webb

[atthehalf]

I predict a few week Heater for you! Thanks for your knowledge and writeups!

I am on a heater-just in fantasy league LOL! I am demolishing the competition 59-24. Conventional is much harder because of managerial decisions (for example bringing in a guy to close out a game with a 6.58 ERA

[atthehalf]

TOTALS


12:30 Twinkies/Red Leggins UNDER 9.5 Paddack/Martinez
1:00 Rox/Nats UNDER 9.5 Dollander/Williams
2:00 Brews/Cubs UNDER 8.5 Peralta/Tallon
2:00 Cardinals/Pale Hose UNDER 9 Fedde/Burke

[matt711]

I predict a few week Heater for you! Thanks for your knowledge and writeups!

[atthehalf]

Then I turn the channel and the Royals bullpen is giving it up too LOL! I don't se how anyone can get ahead to far in MLB conventional betting-the bullpens are the ones that kiss your money goodbye

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Mitchel Parker needs to be removed from the game RIGHT NOW! 6 frames with 8 K's and 0 walks sounds like a wonderful payday for me fantasy wise

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The Orioles bullpen is uh..yeah...NO! How do you go from being up 8-0 to being tied 8-8 LOL! I have taken some of the weirdest losses this season

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SIDES

8:00 Royals-135 Bubic
7:35 Orioles-104 (Rogers)
9:30 Guardians+115 Allen
8:00 Brews+130 Misiorowski


TOTALS


7:00 Snakes/Jays UNDER 9 Rodriguez/Lauer
7:00 Twinkies/Red leggins UNDER 9 Ober/Lodolo
7:30 Orioles/Rays UNDER 9 Rogers/Bradley
8:00 Brews/Cubs UNDER 8 Misiorowski/Taillon
7:30 Cardinals.Pale Hose UNDER 8.5 Gray/Burke

EXOTICS

Brews+130/UNDER 8 +335 ODDS

[atthehalf]

Soroka yesterdays win with 6 frames 9 K's and 2 walks gave me a tidy profit of an 82% share bringing my CRUMBS POD Streamer record to 58-24.

Today's CRUMBS POD is Mitchellparker (Nats) with a stunning 8% rostership and an arsenal that's pretty decent against the Rox lineup. Of course if you take them their bullpen will kill your money. I had some awful bullpen losses yesterday but it is what it is. Okay my sides and totals are on the next post

[atthehalf]

Red Sox-125 Crochet 3 UNITS

[teecee]

My lord, the Nats are getting punked by the Rockies. I'm sure they'll be -250 tomorrow. Sheesh!

I was wrong. -175 or greater for every game of the series for a nearly last place team. Wow!

[atthehalf]

Damn. Interesting stat

The Guardians have struck out against lefties 33.5% of the time with 182 K's in 61 games...YIKES!

So Robbie Ray has a K's line of 6.5 but it's juiced. I say the juice is worth the squeeze. Vic Carapazza averages 17.4 K's per game

Squeeze it man. Squeeze it

Giants (Ray) OVER 6.5 K's -122

[atthehalf]

Ok just added on some more moves for the LATE SLOT


9:30 Guardians/Giants OVER 7 Cecconi/Ray
10:00 Astronauts/A's UNDER 11 Alexander/Sears
10:00 Fathers/Dodgers UNDER 10 Vasquez/Dreyer
10:00 A's+108 Sears 2 UNITS

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https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1AWApU594r/

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Let's get it!

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TOTALS


6:45 Rox/Nats UNDER 9 Senzatela/Soroka 3 UNITS
8:00 Brews/Cubs UNDER 9.5 Patrick/Brown 3 UNITS

SIDES

7:00 Snakes+105 Pfaadt
7:00 Twinkies+108 Festa
7:30 Orioles+103 Kremer

6 WAY ML PARLAY +1302 ODDS


Tigers -208 ML Mize
Sailors-173 ML Woo
Braves-141 Holmes
Bombers-225 Warren
Nats-200 ML Soroka
Giants-151 Ray