CK's 2025 MLB Thread

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OK so the Rd Sox flip flopped arms on me and BOTH of my moves were cancelled as a result-Singer and Bello faced off in game one and Martinez and Criswell will hook up in the second game-take the Red Leggins in that one

Red Leggins+110 Martinez 3 UNITS (GAME 2)

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Gotta hit the highway early for a baseball tournament this holiday weekend and I want to get a leg up on the traffic by leaving a day early. So I made my moves just now with the exception of the Red Leggins in game 1 of their double dip with Red Sox

My CRUMBS POD is Mick Abel (Blunts with only 18% rostership)

12:00 Cardinals-140 Gray 5 UNITS
1:00 Fathers-110 Pivetta 3 UNITS
1:00 Brews+113 Peralta 2 UNITS
2:30 Red Leggins+100 Singer 2 UNITS (OFF THE BOARD)
7:00 Bombers-126 Warren
7:00 Brews-126 Misiorowski
7:00 Braves-137 Fuentes
7:00 Red Sox-137 Bello
6:30 Nats-110 Gore 2 UNITS(GAME 2)
9:30 Giants+116 Roupp 5 UNITS

TOTALS

12:30 Cardinals/Buccos UNDER 8 Gray/Keller
1:00 Fathers/Blunts UNDER 9 Pivetta/Abel
6:30 Twinkies/Fish UNDER 8.5 Woods-Richardson/Junk 2 UNITS
7:00 Bombers/Jays UNDER 9 Warren/Berrios.
8:00 Orioles/Wanderers UNDER 8.5 Sugano/Eovaldi
8:00 Guardians/Cubs UNDER 9 Bibee/Imanaga 2 UNITS
9:30 Royals/Sailors UNDER 7.5 -122 Cameron/Gilbert
10:00 Pale Hose/Dodgers UNDER 9 Burke/Kershaw
6:30 Tigers/Nats UNDER 8.5 Flaherty/Gore

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PURCHASE ORDER

Guardians/Cubs UNDER 8 Williams/Boyd 2 MORE UNITS

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Twinkies/Fish UNDER 7.5 Ryan/Cabrera 2 UNITS
A's/Rays UNDER 8.5 Springs/Baz 2 UNITS
Cardinals/Bucos UNDER 7 Fedde/Skenes
Fish (Cabrera OVER 5.5 K's +105)
Brews.Metropolitans OVER 8 BUY BACK 2 UNITS

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I will be grabbing up some MORE POSITIONS shortly on TOTALS

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To explain to the 3 readers who messaged me I can provide my answer here to do it al at once. The inquiries were why did i make moves on the Fish and Nats today. This is weird because all three were having the same question.

I took both of those dogs because #1 they are in the sweet spot for interleague home underdogs (+120 to +140 with a total of less than 10). There are 3 things that linemakers don't always account for FAMILIARITY, MOTIVATION AND SITUATION. You get all of those in matchups like this. Then both of these teams were involved in the Sunday Night Baseball game and traveled later than they are used to traveling. IN the case of the Fish they are also hot right now with one of my studs on the bump in Cabrera. Royce Lewis will be making his comeback today and he has to be rusty-however he is a very important position in the Twinkies batting order making way for a LOB opportunity. Joe Ryan has never faced any of the Fish batters; Cabrera has an xwOBA of 314 which isn't bad or good.

For the Tigers Flaherty xwOBA .300 and Williams .316-that's close and not a wide gap for the size of the line

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I woke up and grabbed some MORE Red Leggins-110 Singer so now it's 4 UNITS

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SIDES

Fish+116 Cabrera 2 UNITS
Nats+140 Williams 2 UNITS
Brews+107 Peralta 2 UNITS
Red Leggins+100 Singer 2 UNITS
Halos+140 Anderson 2 UNITS
Astronauts-1.5 -115 RL Gordon 2 UNITS


TOTALS

Fathers/Blunts UNDER 8.5 Pivetta/Sanchez 2 UNITS
Pale Hose/Dodgers UNDER 8.5 Smith/Yamamoto
Brews/Metropolitans UNDER 8.5 Peralta/Holmes 2 UNITS
Guardians/Cubs UNDER 8 Williams/Boyd 2 UNITS
Halos/Braves UNDER 9.5 Anderson/Fuentes
Orioles/Wanderers UNDER 7 Yung/deGrom

My CRUMBS POD Richard Fitts (Red Sox)I know that i am on the Red Leggins conventionally. However i couldn't care less when I can make more on one stream than if I were to lose each and every conventional straight and total.

Fitts has a mere 1% rostership. That's a 99% share payout. Fitts is stretched out and gets the Red Leggins at home-not at his house playing The Show" but at his professional home...even if that means it's Fenway. Fitts' arsenal is above-average even if it he may lack an overpowering offering. I just want my 5/3/1/K/W

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Alright-gimme a few minutes-I am making my moves for tomorrow's SIDES tonight

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Late night tasties

Giants/Snakes OVER 8 or 8.5 depending on your book Webb/Nelson

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Cowboy Austin Jones is the ump for the Bombers/Jays game-and you know what that means-hella K'S (18.4 per game)

Ordinarily I would make a move for any arm to get over 5.5 K's vs the Jays but when the strike zone is from the neck to ankles I will take it

Bombers(Rodon) OVER 5.5 K's +101

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BUY BACK

Buccos-110 Heaney 2 UNITS

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Adding on

Orioles/Wanderers UNDER 8.5 Rogers/Corbin

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Here are my TOTALS for tomorrow

Fathers/Blunts UNDER 9 Waldron/Wheeler
A's/Rays UNDER 8.5 Lopez/Rasmussen
Red Leggins/Red Sox UNDER 8 Burns/Crochet

3 WAY PARLAY THESE FOR +593 ODDS

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Making my moves the night before like most professionals do-we don't wait for reverse line movement or any of that amateur stuff. We bury good numbers and situations over and over

Fathers+1.5 -110 RL Waldron 2 UNITS
Bombers-1.5 +105 RL Rodon 3 UNITS
Royals+135 Wacha 2 UNITS
Orioles-110 Rogers 3 UNITS
Cardinals-125 Fedde 2 UNITS
Snakes+130 Nelson 2 UNITS
A's+155 Lopez 2 UNITS

My CRUMBS POD is Jacob Lopez (A's) with only 15% rostership. The Rays are going to be wildly public and obviously since 85% of the boys in my league are streaming Rasmussen this is a chance at glory. I hope he can have the same approach that has fueled his recent success. It's more reliant on command than I'd like but it's all good

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CFL

Toronto/Ottawa OVER 51.5

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Valkries+3 1st half

Has to be a reason why the number hasn't changed with all of that money on the Storm

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Aces+3.5 2nd half (PURELY SITUATIONAL)

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Stay locked in-I am taking the Aces again 2nd half in a few minutes

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Knuckleballer Matt Waldron returns for the Fathers tomorrow-now with a knuckleballer the velocity isn't a concern at all so I expect for him to do decently. The fact that obviously the Blunts haven't faced a knuckleballer this season works well to my advantage-especially since it will be humid with a 57% chance of rain. I won't be drafting him yet, however, this is a good spot for the Fathers catching the Blunts off of an extremely long road trip with 0 days rest. I will be taking the Fathers straight by night's end

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I just grabbed some

Fish+1.5 RL -130 LIVE BET 1 UNIT for an arbitrage angle

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E-Rod with the 5 1/3 with 6 K's and 6 K's and 3 walks on 108 pitches...what a bummer...

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For those who want to make a move on the twinkies/Tigers late Sunday Night Baseball game Paddack is looking at an xwOBA of .408 and Skubal .255. The umpire for this game James Jean is averaging 8.70 RPG against a total of 7.5. The home team is 6-4 as is the over for his games. He averages 15.8K's per game also. He has not had a game with a total line of 7.5 under his belt this season.

The Tigers are 5-5 ATS FF their last 10 home games. The Twinkies are also 5-5 ATS their last 10 road games.

The Tigers are 6-4 for the OVER FF last 10 at home
The Twinkies are 7-3 for the OVER their last 10 home games

Ok so I have Paddack ranked low (#12)-against the Tigers he has

24 AB; 5K; 3BB; .375 AVG, .444 OBP; .583 SLG; 1.028 OPS; xwOBA .408

My move: Tigers OVER 2.5 RUNS FF +100

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WNBA

Valkries+5.5

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Holy smokes! The Metropolitans are broken-they are behind 6-0 to the worst ranked arm on the board today-Can't make this up if you wanted to

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Waiting in the cage here...

Fathers/Red Leggins UNDER 9 ONE MORE UNIT

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Logan Allen doesn't bring enough to the table to let him fly. I have him as a DNS and ranked #20 and Liberator at #5so I am going to go with the rankings for that one despite the clear fact that the Guardians are at home and desperate for a win to not get swept at home.

The Metropolitans had a players only meeting-that's on stone. As far as Montas is concerned he showcased 97 mph early in his season debut and hopefully he can do more with his splitter and slider in a great matchup against an overconfident Buccos lineup. At the end of the day it's the end of the day so when Burrows gets on the bump I know for a fact that he appeared in Wednesday's game and I wouldn't expect him to go too long here, let alone with production. Should be a disaster

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Here are the short list of TOTALS that I made moves on. I have to get my son off to pitching training this morning and then it's off to the field for some infield drills

Rox/Brews UNDER 8.5 Marquez(DNS)/Patrick#6
Fathers/Red Leggins UNDER 9 Kolek(DNS)/Lodolo#7
Giants/Pale Hose UNDER 8.5 Verlander(DNS)/Cannon(DNS)

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WNBA

Las Vegas+6.5 2 UNITS

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My CRUMBS POD for tomorrow is E-Rod (Snakes with only 20% rostership. It's the Fish and he has his command working. I also went heavy on him for a STRAIGHT on Sunday. I am standing on my SIDES for Sunday and rolling with a few select TOTALS which I will make moves on after the umpire assignments have been handed out like trick or treat candy

Sailors-120 Castillo 2 UNITS
Royals-110 Bubic 3 UNITS
Cardinals-123 Liberator 2 UNITS
Giants-1.5 +105 RL Verlanader 3 UNITS
Snakes-1.5 +110 RL Rodriguez 5 UNITS
Red Leggins-131 Lodolo 3 UNITS
Astronauts-1.5 +130 RL Valdez 3 UNITS
Metropolitans-1.5 +100 Montas 3 UNITS

5 WAY ML PARLAY +1052 ODDS

GIANTS-158
SNAKES-191
RED LEGGINS-135
ASTRONAUTS-158
METROPOLITANS-157

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The OVER is trending high today in MLB despite umpire assignments coming up with otherwise

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Cfl



bc+2.5

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Fish/Snakes UNDER 9 ONE MORE UNIT

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Rox/Brews UNDER 9 ONE MORE UNIT

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Wondering aloud here. I haven't been more disappointed with an arm over the past two seasons than that of Kumar Rocker (Wanderers), He has filthy stuff. Rocker's cutter is legit. I'm just hoping he keeps throwing it 40% of the time and can support it properly. Maybe today is the day, maybe it isn't-but his skill set should work well against the Sailors... You already know what you are gonna get with Woo. He will hold it down on his end.

The second one is Bailey Ober. His issues are mostly from this season. You just can't trust him these days. He's far removed across the board from his 2024 self, mostly with his four-seamer velocity and command. Pitching through injury doesn't help things, either. He will still K yo ass up-just has issues going deeper off into games and putting the Twinkies suspect bullpen in the crosshairs...anyway

Here's some of that MORE I was talking about


Twinkies/Tigers UNDER 9 ONE MORE UNIT
Giants/Pale Hose UNDER 8 ONE MORE UNIT
Pale Hose+1.5 -120 RL Houser
Wanderers+102 ML Rocker (GOD HELP ME)