treat these MLB teams like Options

[Believe_EMT]

With Options: 20.61 Units
W/O Options: 3.61 Units


well there might something there Oil if you have been applying different rules. we only need another 500 or so games so even begin to decipher. because i'm still just blindly playing the overnight moves. are you adding any criteria to avoid backing certain teams or situations. cuz that is something i have not done. like i said many times, as close to auto pilot as i can get. but it would be interesting to see even a team by team and home vs road if certain teams continue to be over/under valued.

looking at my spreadsheet, i think you may be right though. the spreadsheet has the entire year, i think i started posting few days or weeks in. let me audit my record real quick, think there may be something amiss with the record i have posted.

i appreciate the heads up Oil. if we are going to dig any value out of this I need to be accurate.

[Believe_EMT]

how are you tracking +CLV games? because this system tracks two things, but both fall under the non-option units. graded as follows

non-optioned plays track the closing line:
1. units lost on bets closing with -CLV (down 96 Units for the life of the system vs 35 for optioned)
2. units lost on +CLV plays vs closing line

i needed an easy way to track not only my performance when optioning out of -CLV, but also how valuable +CLV becomes over the course of a 2,400 game season. yesterday for example, SD and NYY were +CLV winners. i won .82 and .72 Units respectively. if you bet the closing number you won .80 and .70 Units.

so i needed a way to track that piece of things without creating 5 different records that would muddy the waters. logically it makes sense to me, but i could see where the argument could be made i should have them split, but i'm 3,700 reduced line bets in at this point, breaking them out might take some time.

[Believe_EMT]

mil 106
tor 132

With Options: 18.58 Units
W/O Options: .70 Units

[oilcountry99]

With Options: 20.61 Units
W/O Options: 3.61 Units


well there might something there Oil if you have been applying different rules. we only need another 500 or so games so even begin to decipher. because i'm still just blindly playing the overnight moves. are you adding any criteria to avoid backing certain teams or situations. cuz that is something i have not done. like i said many times, as close to auto pilot as i can get. but it would be interesting to see even a team by team and home vs road if certain teams continue to be over/under valued.

looking at my spreadsheet, i think you may be right though. the spreadsheet has the entire year, i think i started posting few days or weeks in. let me audit my record real quick, think there may be something amiss with the record i have posted.

i appreciate the heads up Oil. if we are going to dig any value out of this I need to be accurate.

I have not added any additional criteria. Strictly going by line movement, no other capping involved. I have been tracking the line movement differential between open and purchase, at seasons end I plan to check if there is a threshold of movement that may help in selections. That is just a thought at this time, not sure it will matter.

The only break-out I have at this point is Favs and Dogs and what I'm seeing is Opting out of DOGS only might be a viable option.
Opt-Out of FAVS win% = 48%
Opt-Out of DOGS win% = 56.76%

**Alll tracking uses FLAT as opt-out threshold**

[oilcountry99]

I've also tracked 2 opt-out theories:

1. full opt-out (which is risk the full win amount of the buy in wager)
2. I call this the EMT method (which is risk the extra win amount above a 1/2 unit. So I'm trying to secure a half unit when my buy in wager wins and my opt-out loses)

Examples:
Buy in on FAV (-120) is risk 120 to win 100. Buy-out bet would be risk 50 on the DOG to win whatever.
Buy in on DOG (+120) is risk 83 to win 100. Buy-out bet would be to 'Come over the top on a FAV' and risk 125 to win whatever.

Results to date in Units:
No Opt-out = +13.81
#1 Opt-out = -4.7
#2 Opt-out = +3.12

[skeptastic]

New member. I've been following the thread and have gone through the posts this morning. This is along the lines of what I think is at least the beginning stages of becoming a decent handicapper. Right now, I've been placing random bets and following some "tried and true" systems that supposedly have never lost a season since 2005. I got back into betting a week ago after a 7-year hiatus.

At any rate, I just wanted to say hey, introduce myself, and let you all know that I appreciate the information and hard work that's gone into this. I am on the other side of the TOR play, unfortunately, and will likely just stick with it, but may be hopping onto this system starting tomorrow.

[skeptastic]

KC line at Pinnacle just went from +139 to +134 rather abruptly. This, 4 minutes before game time. Interesting stuff. I read where you guys are considering not relying too much on late line changes. My plan is to track early lines, early line movement, pre-8-AM-EST movement, and late movement. I'm behind when it comes to employing this system and admittedly have a ton of catching up to do, but this should be fun!

As I was tying this, Pinnacle went from +134 to +129. Not sure what the +139 to +129 move in a matter of minutes might indicate, but am willing to see how it all plays out and join in on the discussion with you all.

[skeptastic]

One question I've had for some time is what time the overnight lines at 5dimes (my main book) actually open. Gonna give them a shout to find out, but if anyone here know, feel free to share.

Another question is, has anyone ever actually observed the kind of immediate, very early line movement as indicated in this KC/TOR game? I mean, opening line at 5dimes and Pinnacle was +108 for KC, but I got +127 pretty early (at 5:29 AM), but recall seeing it at +123 as early as 9 PM. So whenever it opened at +108 for KC, it apparently over quickly to +123, which might indicate heavy sharp betting on TOR. I'm wondering if anyone actually saw it at +108 or if it is even possible, or are these openers hypothetical numbers that books can it at, but bettors never see when actual lines post. And please forgive my noob questions and lack of insight. I am as green as they come, but more than willing to learn and appreciate any and all feedback.

EDIT: Not sure why the game hasn't begun, but KC just hit +127 at Bookmaker. This is all very interesting. I'd been following some systems with a friend and thus hadn't really been watching line movement a ton. I've been wanting to, however, and like the idea of figuring out what these moves mean, even if it's just some of the time.

[dogman]

I believe if you go over to sbrodds and click under line movement it will show the time the book you selected(click on the book) put up their first line. BOL is usually the first to open as the market maker and then others will follow after the lines have settled somewhat.

What I love about this method is the opting out of the bad bet and keeping the good ones based on the price you paid and the price of the closer. For ex., you play +120 and the line closes at +110, you have a great bet. But what I learned the most from this method is the opting out. If the line in the example closes at +121 or more I will opt out. I have never done this in my career and just kept the bet. I always want a better line then the one played at. If it's the same price I may keep it.

I don't mind taking a small loss on a bet based on the closer(in the long run) that I have a bad line on. I used to follow this method also based on the early line movement but since have a different way to pick the teams.

[Believe_EMT]

chc 125
mil +100
sf +145
tor +145
det 122
min 117
nym +136

With Options: 20.32 Units
W/O Options: 2.28 Units

[Believe_EMT]

Oil -

Mario was better (i'm in Pgh, i have to say that)

i do like the idea of checking for a threshold to develop a strike price as opposed to just saying the closing number is better/worse than the number i got.

i also switched the opt out strategy to just shoot for a 1/10 unit profit
negative dog i bet to win .10 on the fave. say $10 (one Unit) on +120 dog that is up to 135/125, i'll come back with $14.85 to win $11 on the fave.

negative fave i also go for .10 Unit on fave. same numbers. i have it at 140, line moves to 135/125
$10 to win $7.14 on the fave
$6.14 to win $7.68 on the dog

i'm not surprised by your findings on faves vs dogs this season. dogs performing in line with my data. faves outperforming.
+CLV faves were a hair under 57% winners coming in for me, this season they are at 62% winners.

-CLV faves were hitting at 52% prior to this year and are at 56%.

dogs are right in line with historical, about 44% winners +CLV, 36% winners with -CLV

36% is a real bad number, we might need a new strategy for -CLV dogs

[Believe_EMT]

system numbers all time

Favorites
+CLV 593 - 440
-CLV 271 - 236

Dogs
+CLV 390 - 484
-CLV 132 - 238

does not include entire data set as i was a touch lazy now and then with the tracking. i really didn't think i would using the data in any refined way, which makes no sense as i type it. 2015 i had a single sheet tracking 10 games at a time and would delete the teams, open and close every few days, only keeping the +/- and the result.

[Believe_EMT]

One question I've had for some time is what time the overnight lines at 5dimes (my main book) actually open. Gonna give them a shout to find out, but if anyone here know, feel free to share.

welcome skeptastic, i dig the name, well done.


i set up my SBR odds page to display the Pinny opener and then Pinny, 5Dimes, BM, BOL and everyone else.

depending on the day, 5Dimes usually has lines out late afternoon, early evening for the next day's games. however, when they actually post the Nickel lines is a different matter. i live on east coast and wake up early for work, thus i go to bed early. i've never seen the reduced lines posted at night, except for the occasional weekend night. i've checked after 10 p.m. EST and the reduced lines were not posted.

just checked the Pinny history on that Tor line, that was a fun one. Tor got bet up slowly it looked like, then the large spike you pointed out near game time. then they dropped a full 10 cents before rebounding up some. makes me think certain syndicates or professionals had numbers they wanted to see. one of them loved KC +140 and 3 minutes later it was down to +129. the big bettor on the other side got the number down in the range they liked right before game time because it moved back to +133.

that was fun. unsure of your mindset, but i take a long term view on sports betting. this game line moves and result mean nothing. we would need a few hundred more of the same closing line before we begin to make assumptions or read things into situations. a single game means nothing. i don't trust weekly or monthly results either. i even beginning to question season long results.

point is, i don't know you as a bettor, but something like this approach is built to survive and profit over long term results (about 750 play per season). keep the bet sizes reasonable and best of luck!

[Believe_EMT]

I don't mind taking a small loss on a bet based on the closer(in the long run) that I have a bad line on. I used to follow this method also based on the early line movement but since have a different way to pick the teams.

exact mindset needed to employ and win with this approach.

these teams are just futures or stocks

chicago cubs tonight might as well just be labeled 'corn futures' or 'amazon stock'. each has a fair market value that the most intelligent, well resourced, successful investors dictate. price is too low, they bid it up. price is to high, it gets bid down.

by the time the contract settles at 7:05 PM EST tonight, hundreds of thousands of investors will have used millions of dollars to voice their opinion on the true value of the chicago cubs. i trust the market's opinion far more than my own. nearly impossible for an individual to beat the market.

i don't mind saying i was wrong when i bought a team early on. keep the profits in place, limit the losses, grind out success one day, one week, one month, one season at a time.

[Believe_EMT]

cin 133
atl 136
sf +132
laa 129
sea +114
det +123

[dogman]

I want to thank EMT for starting this great thread. Recommend getting The Logic of Sports Betting by Ed Miller on Amazon. Beating the closer is what's it all about and EMT's opting out if you have the wrong side of the market is genius.

[Believe_EMT]

mil 128
chc 119
kc +110
tor +101

With Options: 21.86 Units
W/O Options: 1.62 Units

[Believe_EMT]

mil 110
phi +170
sf +107

With Options: 21.47 Units
W/O Options: .45 Units

bal and oak were plays, but the line moved a bunch between me entering amounts and going to the password screen on 5D.

[Believe_EMT]

nym 140
sf 113
sd +143
col +101
tor 148
cle 118
chc 112

cle not a system a play, but unless 5D is the new sharpest mlb book, we got about a 12 cent discount on the indians.

With Options: 20.33 Units
W/O Options: 2.25 Units

[Believe_EMT]

idea:

i shouldn't focus on where the line closes in relation to where i played, i should research closing lines in comparison to opening lines and check for success rates that way. meaning a -115 open i play at -125 that closes at -120 might perform better than one that goes -115 open -125 play closes at -112.

thoughts?

[Believe_EMT]

mil 103
col 125
bal +146
cle 117

With Options: 21.60 Units
W/O Options: 4.97 Units

mil and cle not exactly system again, deep discount at 5D though.

[dogman]

I played 7 games today and went 2-5 . Opted out of 6 of the games where the line moved against me,those went 1-5. I kept only Pitt. who won. So on a day where I would have a big loss I won for the day.

And Pitt. was a -103 favorite. Of course it doesn't always work out this way, but you can see the strength of this method of play.

[gamblingshark1]

Using 5 dimes overnight I only saw 6 possible qualifying games...at 8am PST only 5 qualified...

Phillies 4 cent move
Pitt 2 cent move
Giants 3 cent move
Rockies 7 cent move
Tbay 9 cent move

Just prior to all games starting.,
All 5 were still above their overnight opening lines ..3 of them went higher..1 stayed the same..Tb dipped 3 cents from its high point..

I played all 5
Went 4-1.....
I dont think we are all on the same page as to what is a play

[Believe_EMT]

we've hit the break. unsure if i'll continue the daily tracking now that we get the gist of it.

With Options: 21.42 Units
W/O Options: 2.78 Units

[Believe_EMT]

I played 7 games today and went 2-5 . Opted out of 6 of the games where the line moved against me,those went 1-5. I kept only Pitt. who won. So on a day where I would have a big loss I won for the day.

And Pitt. was a -103 favorite. Of course it doesn't always work out this way, but you can see the strength of this method of play.

heck yes D-Man! it rarely works out that way on a single day, but it is the accumulation of games, days, weeks and months that the system proves its worth. at least the 4,000 results that i have. it is a grind though

[Believe_EMT]

Using 5 dimes overnight I only saw 6 possible qualifying games...at 8am PST only 5 qualified...

Phillies 4 cent move
Pitt 2 cent move
Giants 3 cent move
Rockies 7 cent move
Tbay 9 cent move

Just prior to all games starting.,
All 5 were still above their overnight opening lines ..3 of them went higher..1 stayed the same..Tb dipped 3 cents from its high point..

I played all 5
Went 4-1.....
I dont think we are all on the same page as to what is a play

welcome aboard Shark!

we do have inconsistencies when applying the approach. timing is everything i suppose.

i get my plays in whenever i happen to get out of bed. M-F that will be between 5:30 - 6:30 am EST. Weekend will be a hair later, between 6:30 - 7:30. i only check the lines and make plays once in the morning.

as you stated, lines are fluid and sometime moves occur after i've posted. we never really settled on a single time for checking lines and getting down bets.

i can tell you i usually only play games that have moved 5 cents or more from the opener. but that is my personal preference.

which leads to:

i don't own this system, am not charging people for it, so please consider it open source software. take it, make it your own. if you think it would work better with multiple morning checks and plays and higher or lower movements, have at it. this was as close to auto pilot as i could find while still remaining profitable. i never bet faves over -150, but don't have the data to back up whether that is a good strategy or not. if you want a higher limit, or no limit, on faves, that is also your choice.

i'm just presenting this approach as it works for me. i'm not a big fan of risk, keep my plays under 2% of my bankroll and check lines as little as possible throughout the day. i found a conservative approach that demands little time or effort.

it is far from being optimized, i understand. but it returns the profit based on the effort that works for me. by no means am i the smartest man on this forum, possibly not even in this thread.

my only request is that anyone employing this approach that finds a way to improve it is please share with the group. i started posting this because i grinded for years and had some help from some very smart people along the way. this is my way of giving back. we're all in this together.

GL

[dogman]

Shark, I mentioned in a previous thread I am not using this method to make the plays, that's why it differs from the plays posted. My take on this is if you can bet the openers and be on the right side of the line movement, then you'll make money, no question. Betting once the line settles it will be tougher because a lot of the value is gone. For ex., line opens Boston +120, you bet them and 2 hours later the line settles in at +105. Lets say the closing line is Boston at +100. If you bet opener for $100 you made $120, after the line settled you made $105, $15 less.

You got a better line than the closer though so you keep the bet and win $105, $5 more than if you bet the closing line. But let's say the line moves to Boston +130 at GT so we opt out and bet their opp. and take a small loss.

The trick with this,, of course, is to beat the closing line but also who to bet. You want to be on the right side more than the wrong side so you aren't always taking a loss, and you want to get the best line you can when you make your bets.

What book someone is using to make their plays is big and how much line movement their basing their picks to make a wager on is also important. Their is a lot of ifs still on who to bet, that's why many will have different plays.

[oilcountry99]

we've hit the break. unsure if i'll continue the daily tracking now that we get the gist of it.

With Options: 21.42 Units
W/O Options: 2.78 Units

EMT, if you can I’d like if you could keep tracking. I use your selections and odds for tracking if I am unable to get to the computer before 8:00am.

If not, no worries I’ll make due. Good luck moving forward

[Believe_EMT]

wsh 129
cin +112
sd +104
cle 137

not a problem Oil

also thought i should keep up the daily posting should any new folks stroll in

all star break was refreshing! GL

[oilcountry99]

wsh 129
cin +112
sd +104
cle 137

not a problem Oil

also thought i should keep up the daily posting should any new folks stroll in

all star break was refreshing! GL

So much so it makes me want to quit doing this....lol

[Believe_EMT]

mia +133
det +102

With Options: 20.28 Units
W/O Options: .48 Units


exactly right Oil! don't realize the effort while you're down it. then the break.

[oilcountry99]

mia +133
det +102

With Options: 20.28 Units
W/O Options: .48 Units


exactly right Oil! don't realize the effort while you're down it. then the break.

Not 100% sure but should det be -102? They opened at +100

Thanks for posting

[Believe_EMT]

weird. i had them opening at +110 and that is why they were a play at +102.

570423101-2

7/13/19 6:56am

Loss

7/13/19 7:15pm Reduced Baseball 975 Detroit Tigers +102* vs Kansas City Royals (M Boyd - L must Start B Keller - R must Start)

[Believe_EMT]

wsh +101
pit +151
kc 143


With Options: 18.28 Units
W/O Options: -1.52 Units

[Believe_EMT]

anyone else feel like we are in the midst of a 5-24 run? 2-10 L12

chc 131
atl 111
tb +129
kc +115

With Options: 18.48 Units
W/O Options: -3.52 Units