st l 104
sf +145
nym +113
oak +103
With Options: 10.17 Units
W/O Options: 1.39 Units
sf +145
nym +113
oak +103
With Options: 10.17 Units
W/O Options: 1.39 Units
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Comment -
Looks like CLV is starting to kick in. More than anything, a net profit at years end will prove that closing line is the most efficient number in the game.
If you guys ever look at all the model builders over at Prediction Tracker, their consensus plays are always net losers when compared to the CLV over a large number of plays. At least in CFB and CBB.Comment -
chc 124
ari +113
sd +117
min +113
tor +128
With Options: 9.61 Units
W/O Options: 4.02 UnitsComment -
never been there, prediction trackers.
i'll have to look into that sometime. are the long term winner/losers, or hovering right around expected results? like random guessing wise, none of their z-scores show any significant departure from expected range?Comment -
mia +109
nym +122
col 129
lad 128
min +121
kc +111
tex 125
oak 110
With Options: 8.64 Units
W/O Options: 5.16 UnitsComment -
could use input on a worrisome trend early on here. has me quite concerned actually, might require an adjustment on my part
+CLV on only 54% of the plays so far. never been remotely that low. 65% +CLV since inception. i think 1 of 2 things (or a combo of both) is happening.
first, the over night market is too sensitive and there is square money coming in and causing movement because of low limits and books too quick to react. potentially puts my entire approach at risk.
or second, the closing market is inefficient this point to the season. meaning the larger, opposite moves are less accurate than the early moves? writing that makes it feel not too likely.
i guess a third option could be my source for opening and current lines is poor.Comment -
The system is up at this point, keep doing what your doing and see where it goes. I see no need to adjust anything at this point, keep your eye on it EMT! Thanks for your posts here.
Comment -
A lot of MLB modelers are complaining that long tested models are failing this year. One can see that is true because Favorites are Plus Money on early line plays and dogs are under 50% ( at least according to my records which are not really complete). With typical square money, this should be reversed ( public pounds favs typically and sharps lean toward dogs)
I still tend to trust late action more than early action ( later moves, more efficient, so goes the conventional wisdom) with a few obvious exceptions like public fading Miami, KC or Baltimore OR squares pounding -2.00 lines up to -2.30 etc.Comment -
thank you gentlemen. we are trending up. and i found an error on my spreadsheet, logging an extra 5 games on the -CLV Dogs sheet. even with today's less than stellar CLV result at 56% +CLV. still real far from 65%.
still early in the year. assume most of the MLB modelers have seen similar results before and are in for the long haul. i know i'm playing about 750 games a year. taking a 10, 15, 20 year stretch, there are going to be times when the ball lands on 33 Black 7 times in a row (saw that walking through a casino in AC one time). of course the worse thing you could do now would be up your Unit Size and start chasing. hold the course model makers!
With Options: 7.02 Units
W/O Options: .74 UnitsComment -
cin 113
nym 118
min +102Comment -
EMT...where did you find cin -113?
opened at -135, currently at -139 (5dimes)Comment -
correct, i was way off on the cin line, apologies for that
phi 120
nym 143
chw +135
laa 135
pit 129
cin +113
With Options: 6.92 Units
W/O Options: 1.54 UnitsComment -
sf +140
sea +125
tor +102
tex +113
cin +106
With Options: 9.74 Units
W/O Options: 4.73 UnitsComment -
must say i am actively debating no longer opting out of faves with -CLV. might not be worth the effort if the remains over 50%.
will still lose a small amount, but with never laying anything higher than -149, don't see the lose carrying a huge impact. i really should have done a better job of record keeping early on.Comment -
st l 142
lad 142
oak 143
With Options: 12.62 Units
W/O Options: 4.86 UnitsComment -
chc 133
st l 143
atl +122
chw +120
tb 145
With Options: 11.32 Units
W/O Options: 3.54 UnitsComment -
chc 143
wsh +113
cle 133
kc +125
With Options: 9.04 Units
W/O Options: .74 UnitsComment -
GL todayComment -
thanks Hman, very poor day. 1-3 +CLV is not going to cut it
col 122
cin +104
chc 136
tor 119
tor not fitting the normal mold for these plays as we have discussed, but it was 6 cents cheaper
With Options: 8.04 Units
W/O Options: .84 UnitsComment -
Get it back today...GLComment -
EMT,
Maybe I'm not understanding, aren't we looking for FAV's who are going up from the opener and DOG's going down from the opener?
examples from today at 5dimes:
COL open -118, your selection COL -122 (makes sense)
CIN open +113, your selection CIN +104 (makes sense)
TOR open -128, your selection TOR -119 (?)
CHC open -137, your selection CHC -136 (?)
I'm not understanding the TOR play or the CHC playComment -
hey oilcountry99, i did call out Tor as not fitting yesterday, but i took them because the price was so much better than every where else i thought i'd grab it. looking back at the chc play, i do see an opener of 137. i don't want i did on that one. usually the first thing i do in the morning, perhaps i should wait until after caffeine. 1-3 CLV again is quite worrisome. and i feel like value is all used up on hou and cle today, but i tailed them anyway.
hou 146
laa +136
cle 148
oak +119
With Options: 7.69 Units
W/O Options: .62 UnitsComment -
Thanks EMT, lets see what today brings...Comment -
mil 109
stl 118
chw +159
kc 133
oak 111
mia +131
With Options: 7.73 Units
W/O Options: .41 UnitsComment -
yesterday was the kinda day this system is built for. 4-0 +CLV. split the games, but netted positive Units, +.04.
if you bet those 4 at close you lost .21 Units
it is those fractional units i am chasing over the course of 750 or so plays.
contemplating what cap to set on the dogs. +175? +165?Comment -
I ended up 2-2 and lost .17u (tracking only, no actual wagers, evaluating system for possible investment next season)
today's selections:
Team open wagered MIL 108 -109 MIA 135 131 STL -110 -123 MIN -118 -127 KCR -120 -134 OAK -105 -111 Comment -
cin 115
mil +113
tex 123
bos 143
With Options: 8.35 Units
W/O Options: -.19 UnitsComment -
selections made @ 7:45am estTEAM open wagered MIN -138 -147 CIN -106 -115 MIL 115 113 STL 130 118 Comment -
oil, you're hitting those reduced lines, yes?
nym 133
oak 133
tor 141
With Options: 11.35 Units
W/O Options: 3.21 UnitsComment -
tracking reduced lines...yes sir. I missed today's plays, too late. I will take your selections for tracking purposesComment -
col +104
atl 136
hou 135
tor +100
laa 142
min 114
With Options: 11.10 Units
W/O Options: 1.88 UnitsComment -
right, tracking only, forgot that part. even through tracking you should be get an idea how much of a difference even just a few cents makes over the course of 750 plays. i fret over nickels.Originally posted by oilcountry99Comment -
EMT, did you pass on WSN because you felt the value was gone?TEAM open wagered WSN -121 -145 COL 120 104 HOU -128 -133 ATL -118 -130 TOR 105 100 LAA -135 -142 MIN -110 -110 Comment -
mia +118
wsh 138
tb 120
oak 115
With Options: 13.39 Units
W/O Options: 5.06 UnitsComment -
i don't recall why i passed on wsh yesterday. i don't think it was at 150, maybe it was either too close to 150 or the value was gone or a little bit of both. like i said, first thing in the morning sometimes and i might not be as sharp as i should.Comment
