lad 113
With Options: -2.75 Units
W/O Options: -10.46 Units
With Options: -2.75 Units
W/O Options: -10.46 Units
-
Comment -
Very interesting approach using CLV as the ultimate endpoint as opposed to W/L pt or Units Won or Lost.
5 Dimes - I assume you are using this because reduced juice option gets best value. Also, reduced juice attracts sharper players at the early numbers??
Do you ever consider early amount of money bet on the side you like? I would think this would be possible way to support your plays that are favored by early line movement?
When you are looking at the 5 Dimes lines, at what point to do you decide a game is a play? Or is it more of a "look and feel" as opposed to a specific number?
Why 5% as the cutoff? Why not cut off at flat? Or cutoff at 10% ? I assume your dataset supports 5% as the best point to option out over 4700 + games.Comment -
Just saw where you are now cutting off at flat. Missed that when I was posting my last post.Comment -
col 125
oak 122
cle 141
With Options: -2.63 Units
W/O Options: -9.41 UnitsComment -
what i really need to do, which would be impossible at this point, is separate the dogs/faves. that would really fine tune the approach. or would it? the W/L percentages would differ but the units earned/lost would most likely not diverge that greatly? i'll need to think about this one, thanks!Originally posted by CombatoComment -
Thanks. If I understand correctly, your initial bets are on the side where there was early action ( probably at least 10 cent or more I would assume). Also, you bet early so as not to take the worst of any line moves against you later in the day.
Check 10 min before start time and option out of any game where line has moved against your initial play.
This is the best approach I have seen to take advantage of CLV and bet accordingly. 4200 games is a decent sample size for sure. I like the "auto pilot " nature of this system. Paint by the numbers, no bullshit trends or 'advanced metric' nonsense that everyone seems to love but no one seems to win with consistently.
The key point here ( and your database supports this) is "Does taking advantage of CLV actually put one on the right side enough times to be a long term winner"? Smart people say "yes' but I have seen enough "dumb money" line moves on favorites to make me suspicious, at least on games involving large favorites ( square money chasing NYY, Boston, big name starters).
Thanks again. Feel free to answer any of the above if you feel so inclined.Comment -
Interesting concept. I’ve wondered about having a system based strictly on the odds the bookmakers give us. Everything is in the line, $, amount of wagers, lineups, starting pitcher, weather and any other handicapping stat. The market is more powerful than my ability, how can I use it to my advantage....maybe this thread answers that question.
Has this concept been tested on other sports? MLB seems to be a good one as there is significant line movement and there for opportunity.
I’m not completely clear on how the initial selections are made and the staking procedure.
Thanks for sharing your concept here. Best of success moving forward.Comment -
I think the author of this system bets basically using the Early Line Movement. He checks the AM lines at 5 Dimes in the AM after the overnight openers have been hit. He plays the games that the sharp money has hit during the previous night. I think this is how he stakes his plays.
Then he waits until game time to see how much and which way the lines have moved. IF he has closing line value, he leaves the play on. If not, he "options out" meaning he bets the other side and takes a small percentage loss on the play.
I would suggest an additional strategy of avoiding games that are obvious public action and probably not sharp action. Large money seems to always come in on the Yankees so I suggest passing games that involve them. Also pass on Boston, Houston, LA Dodgers. I don't like to bet games on the public side no matter how much CLV i may have.Comment -
Combato...👍Comment -
sf +141
det 129
laa 113
With Options: -3.43 Units
W/O Options: -9.72 UnitsComment -
Combato nailed it, nice summary. feel free to make this system your own if you track it this season and think it would prove profitable to you. when i first hit on this idea i approached Justin7 about putting this thing down on paper to share with the masses. that failed. that was years ago.
but take it and make it your own. if you want to avoid public teams as plays, tweak that piece of it. i was thinking this morning i might tweak this thing further and just sit out the month of April. it is the only month that is negative for the life of this approach. it is also the worst month for finishing with +CLV.
overall 64.66% of games finished with +CLV
for April, over 700 games now, that number is only 59.75%.
division dogs are supposed to a +EV long term based on the historic results, so that might be another tweak players could consider.Comment -
So key adjustments to consider would be the following:
1. Adjust/increase plays by 20% when a play includes a game with on a dog when playing a divisional rival.
2. Reduce or avoid all plays where there appears to be significant public action ( consensus numbers aligning with the line move. This is usually on a high priced favorite or a team on a well known "hot streak".
3. Consider backing off or postponing plays in April due to historical bias against CLV in April.
4. Consider only playing on underdogs. If one can nail 50% on MLB dogs over time, then we are in the chips big time long term.
System had a small winning night last night. My initial impression is that dogs are better than favorites. Early results approaching 50% winners on underdog plays.
As far as sharing a system like this with the masses, it would likely not be of interest to most regular MLB cappers ( which is a good thing for us). Most public players are cappers, system players, trend followers or model builders. Most folks don't really "get" the importance of CLV and are certainly not interested in following am apparent auto play approach that requires little to no MLB knowledge. Also requires more patience / discipline than the average player is willing to invest.Comment -
sf +142
nym 124
sd 133
bos +104
laa 118
cle 120
cleveland only on there because they were priced 6-8 cents lower than any other shop.
With Options: -5.43 Units
W/O Options: -11.72 Units
lots of +CLV from an 0-2 record yesterday.Comment -
Combato,
gotta say i'm intrigued by those suggestions. i'm afraid to just go all in on the div dog thing, i would need to go back and research that much further. although i think the number i saw was from 2006 forward, that covers a lot of games. feel like either books or sharps would have adjusted by now.
on public plays, i'm not certain how many are playing lines this early. or are you saying consider getting out of a play that gets a ton of public money after i've placed the bet?
definitely need to adjust for April, but i don't think a clean break by month would be ideal. it might just be more of a games played limit. like once each team has had 20? 25 games?
i'm not ready to throw away faves yet, but i am ready to start tracking this thing separated by faves and dogs. i started out that way but it became such a hassle. but now that i have my spreadsheets set up, shouldn't take much work.
discipline is the big part of it. if you aren't able to keep your plays at 1% or less of your BR when we are going to have in the neighborhood of 750 plays a season, which will naturally feature long stretches of losses, you will lose a lot of money.
ugh, we are taking the auto out of the autopilot approach!
going to take quick look today to see if April eventually turned around after certain number of games, looking for a trend.
thanks for the input. appreciate anyone taking the time to suggest improvements and up the winning. this dog only one sounds strong.Comment -
I have not decided on what to do yet with public plays. First problem is identifying which games are true public action ( much easier if one can access consensus and money percentages). My initial reaction is to pass any public game altogether and not get involved.
Early results on my end show a definite "pro underdog" bias but the sample size is much too small to make any final judgements. My bias however in MLB is to always lean to the dog side.
1% of BR is a good number with that many plays. If BR goes up, leave at 1% because the unit play will increase accordingly in terms of $$ per play.
I'm in agreement on most of the sides u are on today. Only disagree is San Diego and Cleveland.
Also, I show a nice early $$ move on Miami. I saw the price diff on Cleveland that you mentioned. Not sure what that means so decided to pass
Some evidence of early betting on MLW also as line went from LAD -145 to LAD -121 ( aka MLW + 111 )
Early Dogs = MIA, SF, MLW, BOS
Early Favs = NYM, LAA
For the record, the Divisional Dogs here would be MIA and BOS. I m not ready to make the jump here either. Will watch for awhile on Div Dogs.
Im sticking with Auto Pilot for now. Need to see more on how this actually works out over a larger number of games.
Clear evidence of public action today on WAS (65% of $$ bet, 94% of parlay action) and LAD (73% of $$ bet and 88% of parlay action ). This would give additional support to plays on MIA and MLW.Comment -
Great stuff here definitely interested in seeing it play out
Comment -
When you option out, the goal is to hedge the original bet based on the odds movement. Can someone provide an actual example of this from todays selections using the suggested money management strategy? (1% of BR)Comment -
I decided to play all of the above games today with no hedge outs.
Winners were SF+, BOS+, LAA-
Losers were MIA+, MLW+, NYM-
All of these games were either under 5 cent difference or I had CLV at + money
My only solid plus CLV play was SF. ( Example : I had SF +141, vs Closing line of SF +130). CLV advantage was mine so I left the play on. I had a +11 cent advantage ( 141 - 130 = 11)
All the other ones were either flat or too close to consider a real edge.
"Believe EMT" is the author of this system. I m just tailing along with it right now. Make sure you ask him his input on your question.Comment -
nym 107
chw 122
oak 123
With Options: -3.52 Units
W/O Options: -10.75 UnitsComment -
sure thing, the cle game works.Originally posted by oilcountry99
although this approach will be evaluated based on new evidence.
i bet to risk on favorites, meaning my risk stays flat, at 1 Unit, which does equate to 1% of my BR in this sceanrio.
so it was risk 1 unit at -120 to win .83 Units
line was 110/100 right before game time. i risked .70 units to win .70 units on atl.
lost 1 units on cle, won .70 units on the atl. again, goal being to limit losses. the market is telling me cle was a poor investment so i got out of it the best i could.
cle 1 to win .83
atl .70 to win .70
writing it down i could see where it might sound borderline crackpot, playing both sides of the same game, but we can walk through the numbers later in more detailed fashion. sometimes it will work out to taking a loss no matter the outcome. but again, we aren't interested in a single outcome, we are interested in beating the market to the best number and listening to the market when it suggests we are wrong.
unfortunately i was pretty lazy in 2015 and 2016 so i don't have the full data set to break down into +/- CLV and fave/dog. will only cover about 2,500 games.Comment -
this will most certainly be a collab effort, i'm just the guy that linked together years of learning into a workable approach, one that definitely has room for improvement.Originally posted by Combato
when did you play LAA? i assume there was a pitching change at some point, but it had zero effect on the line? picked up about 25 cents on that SD play, depending whom we use for closers. Favorites are complete, but as i said, terrible record keeping. in 2015 and 2016 i was only full tracking week at a time and then just the numbers were added to the results, leaving me only with W/L and +/- Units.
Favorites
+CLV 536 - 404 57%
-CLV 227-205 52.5%
Flat 46 - 28 62.16%.
damn laziness biting me right in the arse. such a simple, solid idea i wish i would have taken the time to document it better and work on it improving it yearly. looking forward to adding 1,400 results over the next 2 seasons. would ignore the 62% winners on the flat faves, way too small. even this 1,446 game sample feels too small to me.
naturally i don't have all of the prices either, which i imagine would have a sliding scale of W/L % with higher priced faves winning more, but still at an efficient rate that would allow the books to be collecting on both fave and dog side.
the above numbers give me an idea or two, want to open it up to you folks first.Comment -
Believe_EMT
Thanks for the breakdown. Why didn't you bet 1 to win 1 on atl? Then you'd break even and the game would be a wash unless you are still trying to profit on your original wager. I'm a little unclear as to how you determine the 'hedge amount'.Comment -
The key to this is for everyone to be referencing the same out. EMT and I are both using 5 Dimes but if you were to use another book ( say Pinnacle), your numbers will be off a bit from 5 Dimes. Still, I don't think the difference likely matters very much in the long run as long as one is using an out where sharp players are hitting the line early. Heritage, Pinnacle, 5 Dimes, Bookmaker, would all fit this criteria I think.
Numbers also vary depending on the time. I am using 5 Dimes opener and 5 Dimes at 7 AM for my Early Line Move side to play. This looks pretty close to what EMT is using.
ELM for today (still 3 games are not listed yet) looks like early action on CWS, NYM, OAK. All favorites which I am not crazy about playing.Comment -
I ran Z scores on your long term data to see what level of stat significance that you have.
536 - 404 = Z Score 4.36 ( greater than 2 is stat significance) This one is stat significant
227 - 205 = Z Score 1.06 ( less than 2 is not significant ) This one is NOT stat significant.
Trust the first set of numbers. Don't trust the second set yetComment -
Atlanta should have been a play last night and would have been a hedge out. Had Atlanta +110 early and it dropped to negative CLV at +102
I missed it because it was a late game.
As of 12 noon CST, it looks like I will be hedging out of CWS and NYM. This looks like OAK -128 will likely be my only play tonightComment -
EMT
I played LAA early at -118. I think the final line at 5D was around -124. 6 points of +CLV not great but okay to play I think. We are looking at long term play with small edges. This should work over the long haul unless we go broke first !!!
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT*** Bet "to risk" on Favs and Bet " to win" on Dogs. Key point to managing bankrollComment -
I know 5dimes is used to determine selections. Are you using SBR odds for the Opener?Comment -
No I'm using 5 Dimes opener and 5 Dimes closing line. Also using the 7 AM lines at 5 Dimes for picks on early line move
I need to make some corrections for tonights games.
I spent the day looking back over some data that I had access to. I really think the best plays going forward are on the Dogs.
I will be looking to play underdogs in MLB where I have an advantage on CLV.
I think the reason here is that there is always much more public play on Favs. It is quite possible that a large volume of public play ( ie square money) could be distorting the action on the Favorites. Less money on dogs = better idea of sharp money which will be reflected in the CLV.
As of now, I am scratching all the fav plays I mentioned earlier. ( Oak, CWS, NYM )
My dog plays tonight are on MLW and possibly on Wash. Will be looking at game time CLV to make the final call on these games.Comment -
Dogs, I'm a big fan of Dogs in MLB and NHL. Lets see how it plays out, just paper betting at this time just to get a feel for it in real time.
Comment -
Combato,
If using strictly dogs would you still opt out at Flat? or set a threshold?Comment -
Yes. I usually cut off the play at > .05. Will play a game that is dead even flat or even a few cents against me. But no more than .05 against me.
For the record, I am a newbie at this system and still feeling my way through it. The idea of using CLV to make plays is sound. My concern is not playing on Favorites and esp not playing on Favorites that are loved by public bettors.
As of right now, I have Wash +123 vs a current CLV of 107. This a .16 edge for me on Wash
Also, have MLW +148 vs current CLV of +142. This is a .06 edge for me.
Both underdogs but Washington is a bit shaky since there is higher volume of $$$ in play on Wash even though they are favored. In other words, WAS may be getting a bit too much public love even though they are a dog. This is probably not a smart play on my part. Will see how the CLV looks at game time before making a final play. Will post here at 10 min before game time for this.
Current record on dogs over the last few days is 7 Wins, 5 Losses. With option out hedging, the record is 6 Wins, 4 Losses.
Anything > 50% on moneyline dogs is free money.Comment -
prior to jumping on the dogs, feast your eyes on this insanity
Dogs:
+CLV 364 - 451 44.7%
-CLV 108 - 202 34.8%
Flat 22 - 45 32.8%
not enough on the sample size for the -CLV and the flat dogs but those are some real bad numbers. also will be folding in Flat and -CLV as one stat moving forward.
additionally i prob won't chase any dog higher than +155 or so as i did in the past. i'd expect the winning % number to increase slightly as the lower priced dogs eventually drown out noise from higher dogs. thoughts?
but while that data is collecting, going to take my chances at coming over the top of every dog that finishes -CLVComment -
another key component of this approach is taking advantage of the reduced 5Dimes line. you should have as many outs as you can find. but hard to locate a reputable book, serving US clients and dealing 10 cent lines. in very rare scenarios i will find a better line at bookmaker or youwager, but found it usually is 5Dimes with the best line nearly all of the time.
I try to use a blend of closing lines to help determine the CLV. we all trust Pinny because they are the friendliest books to large pro players, suggesting the sharpest action and therefore sharpest lines.Comment -
I was thinking that ignoring FAVS could potentially leave money on the table. I do think Combato makes a good point passing on PUBLIC FAVS.Comment -
That is some pretty scary dog numbers for sure if you look at SU numbers.
When one factors in the + money on the dogs, I don't know what the net dollars would look like
44% probably close to break even maybe?/
On MLW and WAS tonight. Both Dogs.Comment
