treat these MLB teams like Options

[dogman]

My bets are at a different book but there's been a few times where I made the play at 7:00 and then the opponent got action to make it a no play. Betting closer to 8:00 now. Also my opening lines are different than 5D, as they come out a little bit later, so many of my plays are different than EMT's.

Thinking of betting to WIN 1 unit of favorites, such as 1x to win 1 instead of 1 unit to win x. My reasoning is if you're not opting out you're winning much less on a favorite than when you bet the dog and the dog wins. Last night I had Tor. at +135 and Houston-129. Toronto lost and Houston won but lost money betting the same amount on each team. Any of you feel this way?

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
PHI	-118	-133
SEA	120	117

[Sharpes]

Also my opening lines are different than 5D, as they come out a little bit later, so many of my plays are different than EMT's.

Pretty sure you should be using the earliest opening number you can find as you need to know how the market as a whole moved - not just how your own book moved.

[dogman]

That would be using BOL for openers. What book is everyone using for openers? I think EMT mentioned 5D but I believe they come out after BOL. Sharpes makes a good point.

[Believe_EMT]

st l +109
cle 123
bal +112
laa 118


With Options: 21.51 Units
W/O Options: 11.89 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
SFG	129	121
CLE	-122	-126
BAL	127	115
LAA	-109	-115

[eaglesfan371]

team	open	bet at
SFG	129	121
CLE	-122	-126
BAL	127	115
LAA	-109	-115

Are you simply betting over night line movement? What have been your results?

[oilcountry99]

eaglesfan371

Yes, place bets before 8:00 am EST. at 5dimes based on line moves. Check the line 10 minutes prior to game time and get off games when the line value has moved against you (opt-out). (you want DOGS to become smaller DOGS and FAVS to become bigger FAVs) EMT posts +/- results daily. Our selections and lines may differ slightly.

Read through the thread for further details.

[Believe_EMT]

atl 119
nym 124
stl 137
min +126

With Options: 21.56 Units
W/O Options: 11.93 Units

laa was a play but otb

[dogman]

What book are you using for openers?

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
ATL	-114	-121
NYM	-120	-126
MIN	127	126
STL	-130	-138
LAA	-117	-124

all lines are 5dimes

[Believe_EMT]

atl 114
wsh 101
laa 124

With Options: 21.37 Units
W/O Options: 11.58 Units

[Believe_EMT]

Are you simply betting over night line movement? What have been your results?

correct. but only betting 5Dimes reduced lines, unless you have multiple outs and can find a better line. i used to have 5D, YW and BM, 98% of the plays were still with 5D.

no faves over -150

bet to risk on faves, bet to win on dogs

and you have to option out of -CLV or you will be wasting your time.

results abnormally high so far this season. all time results are somewhere in the thread to contrast betting with and without options.

i would suggest not jumping in this year unless we can dip under +15 Units for the year. down about 4 Units in June, so we might get there.

[Believe_EMT]

eaglesfan371

Yes, place bets before 8:00 am EST. at 5dimes based on line moves. Check the line 10 minutes prior to game time and get off games when the line value has moved against you (opt-out). (you want DOGS to become smaller DOGS and FAVS to become bigger FAVs) EMT posts +/- results daily. Our selections and lines may differ slightly.

Read through the thread for further details.

thanks for jumping in an picking up where i've been slacking Oil!

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
ATL	-103	-117
CIN	127	125
WSN	102	-102
MIN	-103	-103
TEX	-143	-150
LAA	-115	-118

[oilcountry99]

EMT

[Believe_EMT]

nyy 125
oak 109
kc 124
tor 136

With Options: 19.72 Units
W/O Options: 8.58 Units

min a play but otb, will add if hits reduced before 8 am

almost time to jump back in!!

5 - 17 run. not a fan of trying to time the market, but, another run of 25% winners and i'm in

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
STL	120	120
TOR	-121	-134
MIN	-128	-129
NYY	-112	-126
OAK	100	-103
KCR	-108	-122

[Believe_EMT]

mia +130
nym 110
tor +122

With Options: 19.33 Units
W/O Options: 8.42 Units

nyy were borderline, did not pull trigger

[Believe_EMT]

sd otb
bos +100
chw +112
tor +124


With Options: 19.34 Units
W/O Options: 7.30 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
CIN	125	125
BOS	110	101
TOR	132	124
MIA	124	123
KCR	-123	-124
SFG	145	143
SDP	104	101

[Believe_EMT]

st l 133
atl 150
col 135

With Options: 19.23 Units
W/O Options: 6.47 Units

[Believe_EMT]

ari +119
chc 124
tor 116
cle 117
mil +105

mil prob too far gone

With Options: 20.97 Units
W/O Options: 8.67 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
ARI	133	122
ATL	-135	-136
CHC	-110	-124
SDP	-143	-147
TOR	105	-116
KCR	-125	-132
CLE	-107	-116
MIL	130	105

[Believe_EMT]

so close to jumping back in. just need to see a few more units drop

chc 141
sf +123
tex +141
mil +121

With Options: 18.92 Units
W/O Options: 5.50 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	buy
CIN	115	110
CHC	-126	-135
TEX	152	133
PHI	-140	-143
MIL	138	118
KCR	-140	-147
SFG	133	117

[Believe_EMT]

pit +134
st l +127
tor 135
det 125

With Options: 18.71 Units
W/O Options: 7.80 Units

last night got me thinking as i watched the giants move from +CLV negative shortly prior to first pitch. should we be selecting a cut off time further out? do we think any sharps/professionals are waiting until 5 minutes before game time to bet? i certainly am not. but now we will get into the best time to do it. just seems the last few days we had +CLV an half hour or so before game time and heavy, late money rolls in and on the favorite in all 3 cases.

any thoughts?

[oilcountry99]

EMT...
my thoughts as this tracking process progresses is that I will realistically not be able to follow this strategy consistently. It's just way to hard for me to get to the opt-out selections. It's really a pain in the arse. Right know I'm just tracking by looking at line movement, I'm not physically checking in 10 minutes prior to game time and entering the line. If this proves to have enough value I may make/find the time. Another factor is my bankroll...I feel a good size unit is required which I don't have the luxury of. We'll see where we're at at seasons end.

PS today is a good example where I wasn't even able to record plays prior to 8:00 am. I will use your selections for tracking, thanks for posting.

[Believe_EMT]

nym 129
mia 113
chc +122
sf +133
det +126

With Options: 18.55 Units
W/O Options: 6.58 Units

[Combato]

Hi EMT
All of you guys need to read the new book by Miller called "Logic of Sports Betting".

Much insight and much of it related to this type of capping. All about how to reduce the hold and using CLV to monitor results

[Combato]

According to Miller, all the buzz about "sharps vs public" is mostly just noise. Whenever a gambling topic becomes a discussion point on ESPN ( such as public vs sharp comments), then it is pretty much now built into the line and is no better than a 50/50 proposition.

Bottom line - I don't think we should worry quite as much about late sharp action as we have in the past. As you know, early line movement is generally sharp, esp when betting into the 5Dimes reduced juice lines. Is it sharp? Yeah, mostly. But is all late action sharp? I don't think it is sharp enough on which to make bets.

[Combato]

I follow 4 books for openers. For MLB, here is the order in which they usually open the numbers
1. Bookmaker
2. Pinnacle
3. Heritage
4. 5 Dimes

Key takeaway here is that BM is usually first. 5 Dimes has reduced juice. Learn to used "synthesized bets" meaning to combine the best lines from each book to reduce the hold to less than 1%. Look at early movement from each of the above books. That will give you a good read on which teams the market thinks are good plays early. Do this and the CLV will fall your way about 80% of the time.

Lines tend to move on games with the lowest hold because those are the smart plays. This is the true sharp action - money movement on games with lowest synthesized hold. Read the book for clarification on this

IF you can get CLV with this method, then you won't have to spend time and money cancelling out the negative CLV positions. Reduce your cost, increase your profit, lower the hassle factor of cancelling all the negative CLV games that have occurred over the current days action.

[oilcountry99]

I follow 4 books for openers. For MLB, here is the order in which they usually open the numbers
1. Bookmaker
2. Pinnacle
3. Heritage
4. 5 Dimes

Key takeaway here is that BM is usually first. 5 Dimes has reduced juice. Learn to used "synthesized bets" meaning to combine the best lines from each book to reduce the hold to less than 1%. Look at early movement from each of the above books. That will give you a good read on which teams the market thinks are good plays early. Do this and the CLV will fall your way about 80% of the time.

Lines tend to move on games with the lowest hold because those are the smart plays. This is the true sharp action - money movement on games with lowest synthesized hold. Read the book for clarification on this

IF you can get CLV with this method, then you won't have to spend time and money cancelling out the negative CLV positions. Reduce your cost, increase your profit, lower the hassle factor of cancelling all the negative CLV games that have occurred over the current days action.

Good stuff, thanks for the input. I did read the book, maybe I should read it again. Reducing the hassle of cancelling out of bets is music to my ears.

[Combato]

Let;s take a shot at this so I can make an ass of myself in a public forum.
Here are the games I played at 9 AM CST on 6/14/19


NYM -125
CHC +121
SF +133
Mia -112
NYY +102
Atlanta -134
Colorado -113

All of these had some CLV as of 9 AM. Lines may move later against these positions but this is a check on the system to see how it goes.

[Believe_EMT]

mia 126
phi 102
laa +170

With Options: 16.33 Units
W/O Options: 3.95 Units

arbitrarily decided +170 will be the max dog i chase. this system is open source though, so code it differently for your own tastes.