treat these MLB teams like Options

[Believe_EMT]

atl 102
ari +115
nym 132
sf +113
sd 133


With Options: -.97 Units
W/O Options: -8.34 Units

[Believe_EMT]

i'm in agreement on heavy public faves, at the same time these 5Dimes nickel lines end at 8 am EST. my guess is not much public money in there yet, and certainly not enough to offset sharp action.

right, the line is key on percentage. 52.34% to B/E on -110 bets.

i'll see if i can find my spreadsheet had equation set up to just plug in a line.

[Combato]

Quick early look - Agree with all your sides except SF. Looks like SF opened at + 113 and then was only at + 112 at 7 AM. Basically flat. Doesn't look like sharp money loves the side that much.

Otherwise I am buying in early on other sides
Atlanta
Arizona
NYM
SD
Adding CHC instead of SF

[oilcountry99]

I agree with all except SFG, but I do have OAK (open-133 to now-138)

ATL -104
ARI +115
NYM -132
OAK -138
SDP -128

What kind of line move are you generally looking for .05 or more? The cut off is -150 or greater?

[Combato]

Agree that Oakland is a play according to the system,

However, I start getting nervous at -150 favorites or more. So I generally pass these types. Oakland is up to -150 at some other books.

Also, early betting consensus is on Oakland at 84%. EMT made a point that due to the time of day, this is probably not square money. Still, I have learned it's best not fade to heavy consensus number over 60%.

I admit this is a bias but it is a bias I have learned from making lots of stupid plays on favorites ( ALL SPORTS) that were backed by significant betting action percentages.

[Combato]

IF things hold as they are right now, I will be hedging out of NYM and SD.

I have NYM at -132 and current line is -129

I also have SD at -133 and current line is -123.

ATL, ARI and CHC are currently plus CLV based on the number I got when I played them this AM

EMT took SF earlier today and that now looks like a solid CLV play as well. How did you know to play SF? Looked flat to me at 7 AM.

[Believe_EMT]

i was on a little before 6 a.m. this morning. i swear i saw that line open at sf +120. definitely questioning myself and trying to remember if that was the case, or if i read something wrong. line history doesn't show 5D having a significantly better price at that time either.

on occasion i do play numbers if 5D has something 7 or 8 cents better than every where else. but i call those out when i do them.

i start screen grabbing the odds in the morning to ensure i saw what i thought i saw.

what was going on that you were able to grab chc? feel like i need to check twice each morning now.

going to be impossible to find a consistent time. my plays will be between 5:30 and 7:30 depending on the day.

[Believe_EMT]

as for line moves, i'm looking in the neighborhood of 8-15 cents maybe, depending on opener.

too large of a move and one could argue all the value is gone. like a 25+ cent move, makes me think there is no value left and it will finish flat or close to it.

[Believe_EMT]

st l 123
atl 125
ari +108
phi 109
bal 114
sf 102

With Options: 1.31 Units
W/O Options: -5.68 Units

[oilcountry99]

I have the same but no ARI and the odds as of 7:50am are slightly different

For comparison:
STL-130
ATL -118
ARI no play
PHI -109
BAL -114
SFG +100

[Combato]

Also playing everything but Baltimore. I want at least a 10 cent move before I play
STL -125
ATL -122
ARI +122
PHI -102
SF +102

[Combato]

We are never going to have a perfect matchup lines because we are all hitting the numbers at different time. It probably averages out over time.

I think the important thing is to try to be consistent. I try to hit my AM sides as close to 7 AM but that isn't always feasible

[Combato]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3533537-2019-mlb-1-5-strategy-p9.html

Hey EMT - Oil Country and I are both watching another system at the above link that is very interesting. It's basically several different chase systems which present their own "risk of ruin" issues. But they do a nice job of limiting risk by cutting the chase series down to 3 and stopping, regardless of win or lose.

I am playing but with the expectation that "gamblers risk of ruin" could raise it's head at any time. A fun system, may be something here, not sure yet.

[Believe_EMT]

truth, we will never be able to marry our lines. it would be nice if the main line movers would let us know what time they bet and we could adjust our schedules accordingly.

That other thread made my head spin just reading through Page 3. systems always make me nervous, which is why i tried to avoid labeling my approach a system. i do like the idea of a safety net trying to keep losses from getting enormous.

i do wish you luck if you are playing along.

[Combato]

Playing along with insignificant amounts in order to maintain interest. I am NOT a fan of chase systems but I looked at my records and did a very cursory back test of this system. Looks legit but sample size on my end is much too small to take seriously as of now.

Yes, we need to ask 5 Dimes if they would kindly supply us with names and times of customer plays along with $$ bet per player.

For the record, i use Sports Insights. A modest 50 bucks a month gets me all the line historys, # of bets, amt of dollars bet at 5 Dimes.

[Combato]

For the record, all the posts make are just an attempt to track the various systems. System 1 and System 2 are all one should look at.

As with all this nonsense, it always ends up looking much more complicated than it really is. It does have a "Martingale" feel to it ( very bad) and I do know altering betting sequences cannot defeat a negative expectation game. Long long term, this will probably lose but they guy has some 4 or 5 years of winning data ( supposedly).

[oilcountry99]

EMT, Combato. I agree our lines will always be different and our plays may vary slightly. I’ll avoid posting my selections as to not clutter the thread. I am still paper trading at this point. I’m not sure this style will be conducive to my schedule. I’m having difficulty checking in before game time to see if the opt out is necessary.

I like the strategy I just have to figure out a way to make sure Im checking in. Maybe I need to set an alarm for each game time, lol

[oilcountry99]

Google sheets on my phone, that’s the solution!

[Believe_EMT]

pit 122

With Options: 6.41 Units
W/O Options: -.62 Units

[oilcountry99]

EMT

[Combato]

PIT -124

Excellent day yesterday.

[Believe_EMT]

Excellent day yesterday.

right on

let's just keep this in mind when we struggle through a 4-20 stretch in June

[Believe_EMT]

cin +132
det +120
cle +123
laa 120
nyy 120


With Options: 5.98 Units
W/O Options: -1.62 Units

[Combato]

right on

let's just keep this in mind when we struggle through a 4-20 stretch in June

Yes, keep eye on the long game. Hard to do when mired in a 0 -10 losing stretch.

[Believe_EMT]

cin +117
mil +123
atl 117
cle +128
laa 115
tex +113
sf +104

With Options: 8.21 Units
W/O Options: 1.71 Units

atl on there as the price was so much better than everywhere else. no clue where the line will go.

[oilcountry99]

EMT,
How many of Friday's games did you option out of? I optioned out of all but CLE. I'm still learning this strategy so I'd like to compare with what you did.

Had I not optioned out I would have been 5-0, instead 1-4. Not worried about it, just interested in how you played it yesterday.

[Believe_EMT]

optioned out of cin, took small loss on that one
optioned out of det took small win on that one
optioned out of laa and nyy took small win on both

splitting those long term numbers into dogs and faves really changed my approach

when it is -CLV on dog i'm coming back over the top and betting more than my original stake on the favorite

when it is -CLV on fave, i'm wagering to win half unit on fave and small stake on dog

example. laa was risk 1 unit to win .83 units. line moved against us so i put .33 units on the kc. long term goal again is to limit the losses when market tells me i'm wrong.

example #2, cin moved against us. that was risk 1 to win 1.32 units. i risked 1.57 units on st l. lost .25 units when reds cashed.

we'll ring up about another 600 games the rest of this season and as the result set grows i'll further tune my approach.

hope that helps

[Believe_EMT]

sd 102
chc 108
laa 112
cle +107
nyy 116


With Options: 7.17 Units
W/O Options: -1.18 Units

recap on -CLV
lost .5 units on atl
won .1 units on hou (cle -CLV)

[Believe_EMT]

atl 148
col +105


With Options: 7.36 Units
W/O Options: -.57 Units

[Combato]

I have elected to just watch this system for awhile and see how it looks at season's end. The potential for "air pocket" drops is quite high, even a certainty, and I would like to see a full season live before I start firing serious money,

Clearly, the rationale behind this seems to be rock solid. Just not sure if I have the stomach for it without watching it live for rest of this season

[oilcountry99]

I’m liking the system,the tough part is getting down on the option outs. I am tracking all plays but only placing morning wagers when I know I’m available to option out if need be.

[Believe_EMT]

sf +146
bal +140
laa 139

With Options: 7.04 Units
W/O Options: -.94 Units

[Believe_EMT]

totally understand your position Combato. would like to learn more about 'air pocket' drops. saying books adjust without incentive to do so?


oilcountry99, knowing you will have time to hedge out is a must. weekends are the worst. normally nothing happens until after 7 p.m. while it is as close to auto pilot that i can find, it does have some rigidity to it:

1. plays based on over night line moves
2. must use 5Dimes nickel lines posted up until 8 a.m. EST (unless you can find an even better price, unlikely)
3. must have ability to hedge out if market moves against the play.
4. never go over 1% of BR on morning plays

i've used 5Dimes for both original and hedging out position on same game.

i'm happy someone else at least understood the concept. not easy telling someone to bet both sides of a game and take a guaranteed loss. without the math it sounds silly.

[Believe_EMT]

sd +144
lad 142
min +128
tor +101
pit 126
mia +141

With Options: 7.76 Units
W/O Options: -.26 Units

[Believe_EMT]

min +101
laa 142

With Options: 8.46 Units
W/O Options: .92 Units